Great call on Bulls. Thank you
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First game in a series, we can't see much and I'm a betting junkie so I can't stay out of this one. I'm flipping a coin on this one with line movement. I'm learning how to read line movement by the way. LOL
-Line opened at 192. Early money is on the over which pushes the line up to 193 to 193.5 right now.
A lot of early money is on the over which means to fade the public? I dunno. Still learning this line movement issue here. The vegas line is pretty sharp I might say. I don't see value in it at all. The last 2 games that these two goonies matched up, their totals were 194 and 196. I'm on the under because this is the playoff so show me some defense out there. Not only that, I think west knows how he can play better and became the real star that he is suppose to be. As a point guard, you are known for your assist with minimum points and as we seen in game 7, west had a triple double. The world loves him for it and as long as he doesn't try for them 30+ point games, it has the imprint of the under. Dallas has plenty time to practice so they will be running cold from the get go. I'm skeptical of all of these first games going over. Lets see how the under holds up in the game 1 of the western final.
Okc game under 193.5 1U
Line opened at 5 and now it is at 6 which means heavy early money on Dallas. Was gonna drop a 2U on this chasing series right here but since we have a public play plus the system plus sbr cappers are split in between this game, I'm chasing it with 1U to start.Game 1 Chicago 2U Winner
Game 2 ???? 4U NO PLAY
Game 3 Heat 2U
Game 4 ??? 4U
Game 1 Dallas 2U pending
Game 2 ????? 4U
Game 3 OKC 2U
Game 4 ????? 4U
Dallas -6 1U
Good luck to me/us/we/whatever LOLComment -
Weds game
Chicago game 2 under 181 3U
I guess I missed the opener but I'll buy it at 181 before it drops even further.
Some of my key pointers for playing the under
-Bosh had 30 while the other 2 guys had ehhh scoring. James with 15 and Wade with 18. In game 2, I'm expecting for bosh to come down to earth and james will get more points. Possible wade to get more as well. I say in their 20's. What this does is that points between these trio here will get move around so I'm not fearful of them all shooting lights out for the over to hit.
-On the chicago side, deng had 21, boozer had 14, rose had 28 and chicago's bench had plenty. Sounds like chicago had a super day to get over 100+ points. I'm expecting them to come down to earth and be in the 90's or so in game 2.
-Chicago 3 balls were 47% with 10 of 21. IN game 2, you can not do any better. You can match it but you can not and I will repeat, you can not do any better. 3 balls are a gift of luck and luck doesn't happen in back to back games. Adjustment for defense on the heat side will prevent this from happening which then means lesser points. Without chicago's shooting well behind the arc, that under in game 1 will get a chance and chicago will be in the 90's point, not 100+.
-Miami shot 100% from the line. That's 15 for 15. No way Miami is going to shoot perfect from the line in game 2. They will try to penetrate to get more fouls out of Chicago and be at the line but they will not go perfect. You can't beat perfect on a back to back game.
-The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami's last 14 games when playing ChicagoThe total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami's last 14 games when playing Chicago.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games when playing on the road against Chicago.
-Sequence play looks like this in their last 10 match up games.
game 2 ????
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So as you can see, there has not been a back to back OO game.Comment -
With you on Dallas -6Comment -
Dallas -1 2H 2U
Dallas is impressive out there. Pound for pound and look good out there. Plus -1 is good value on them for the 2H. 2nd half should be half of the whole game at -3 but at -1? I'm buying it.
Under 2h 97.5 1U
First half was impressive shooting by both squad. Just what I needed for a 2nd slow down. You can't continue to be hot and beat your 1h scores now can you dirk and durant? Play the under.Comment -
Playoffs record 36-40-1 +30u left to playOkc game under 193.5 1U loser
dirk is amazing and free throws like wow. LOLComment -
Under 2h 97.5 1U loser
Another loser on the total. No one can see it coming. 3rd quarter was a hoot wasn't it? Take the loss like a man...yeah that. LOL
Playoffs record 36-41-1 +29u left to playComment -
Dallas -6 1U winnerDallas -1 2H 2U winner
Playoffs record 38-41-1 +32u left to playComment -
yeh...you won again alanOriginally posted by alanspoil
woot wootComment -
No play on game 2 in this chase model.Game 1 Chicago 2U Winner
Game 2 ???? 4U NO PLAY
Game 3 Heat 2U
Game 4 ??? 4U
Game 1 Dallas 2U winner
Game 2 ????? 4U No play
Game 3 OKC 2U
Game 4 ????? 4UComment -
About a month ago, I made this play here. Think I still have a chance? LOL
WHAT WILL BE THE MATCHUP IN THE NBA FINALS?
CHICAGO VS OKLAHOMA CITY +2525
WHAT WILL BE THE MATCHUP IN THE NBA FINALS?
CHICAGO VS DALLAS +2725
Automatic win if Chicago wins. LOLComment -
Yes, I won again. Thank you!Comment -
Earning half more point to buy 2 more Units since homies are adding to their bets.Originally posted by NBA_Brosuf
Chicago game under 181.5 2U for 5U total
No half time play for me. I'm with No coin and say Fork it. LOLComment -
Getting fat here. I'm loving it.Chicago game under for 5U winner
Playoffs record 39-41-1 +37u left to playComment -
Comment -
Do allow me to return the favor. I am going straight to your thread now.Originally posted by Love The ActionComment -
Quick funky write up before I post my bets in maybe after seeing what them other brothers have to say about it. I'm going to play smart from now on. No early bets until I clarify it with my other brothers on this site.
121-112 is the total that we are looking at. I'll use that total in game 1 for a projection in game 2.
-We all see that dirk had an amazing fun time out there in game 1. They put many OKC guys up against him and all they can is foul the guy. Micheal Jordan also had that many fouls in 1 quarter (13-13 in 3rd for dirk) but Jordan did it with a drives while dirk, well he didn't even move by posting up and he gets foul. OKC coaches took a note of this and they are going to work on it for sure. Dirk will get his points no doubt but he will not get another amazing 48 points with tons of it on the foul line. If he does like in game 1, I'm going to write a letter of petition to the NBA and the commissioner is going to have to look into this matter. Dirk is going to come down to earth in game 2. (-)
-Little guy (but taller than me) JJ B had his 20+ points. In game 2, if he's lucky, give the guy 10 for trying. He is going to come down to earth. (-)
-JJ points will move onto Kidd so basically, we have a no advantage on the (+) and (-) model to project an over or an under. (0)
-Mavs had 34 points at the free throw line. No way to repeat that in game 2. (-)
-Mavs shot 53% from the field. Shooting 50 or more percentage from the field is how you win games. I'm expecting them to come down to earth and hit in the 48%, which still win games but looks more real to what they should be getting. (-)
-Mavs only took 73 attempted shots. Kinda low there homeboy but yet, that is enough for a 100+ points night. I'm expecting them to shoot more to up them points ratios (+)
-Durant had 40. As long as durant gets 30+ and west get in the upper 20's, we might see another 100+ points game. Durant and his 40+ is not a big deal to him but he's more known in the 30's. I'm expecting for west to improve on his FG % because the guy is just horrible 3-15 in game 1 and yet, the total was over 100+. (+)
-okc also only took 72 attempts at the basket. Kind of low there but they are able to get 100+ points. I'm expecting for them to not playing the shot clock and just run some fast offense to get it in the 80's. (+)
-Them 3 balls by both teams are kinda average to medium high. 39% and 43%. I think they'll brick more on the 3's but I rather for them to match their game 1 3 balls. (-)
-sequence play
game2 ???
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Do you see a sequence happening here? The next game, it wants to go under. Lets prevent it from happening. In nature, nothing is beautiful for the sequence to look so nice like a good melody. There also has not been an OOO game when these two clowns are matching up as of yet. (+)
-5 and +4 = -1 which means the total is going to take a slightly dip. I know that both teams are not going to shoot any better in game 2. You can either tie or do worse. However, I'm working with this number here against the line. 121-112 and total now is at 200.
Dallas can take a dip. They have 21 points for it to happen. OKC can also take a dip and they too have 12 points overage for it to happen which leaves a 100 and 100 game which equals a push at 200.
I'm leaning on the over at 200. I can not shut out dirk or durant or west for a matter that okc still has no answer for dirk. The only way for the under to hit is if dirk had a bad day and start to brick with them uncontested shots because OKC is going to lay off of dirk so they don't draw no foul. Foul pushes for points and stop the clock which has the over written on it. Dallas also has no answer for Durant as he can drive to get fouls and get his points. Durant and Dirk is good at the line so yeah, I'm not counting on the under here. There is still room for this game 2 to get rather ugly or for them zebras to feel the crowd and start blowing them whistles. I'm playing it safe and take the over at 200. I have more confidence with okc/dallas match up over 200 than okc/memphis match up at 200.
I'm confirming my bet later after I see what my brothers from a different ghost are betting on. Lets hope that we all are on the same sides again.Comment -
Lets see which team won both game 1 and 2 as a home court fav in this playoff so far.
Dallas game 1 and 2 against portland
OKC game 1 and 2 against denver
Chicago game 1 and 2 against indy
Miami game 1 and 2 against philly
Boston game 1 and 2 against knicks
Miami game 1 and 2 against Boston
So basically, teams that go out running for a game 1 and 2 win ends up winning the series. What this mean is that game 2 for OKC will be a huge one. They must win or they will have a higher chance of getting eliminated.
Dallas on the other hand won both game 1 and 2 against portland and Lakers. So what are the odds of them getting a perfect 1-2 game out of OKC?
Who the heck wants to bet against dallas who is notorious for winning ATS? Dallas played well in game one but yet, they only exceed the covering by 3 points. That there tells us that OKC is still in this ball game had not record being met or Dallas goes on a shooting rampage.
Game 2 sides, I passComment -
Great call Under. CongratsComment -
Thanks alan. I'm more comfortable with them big plays because I'm planning to win big plays and lose small plays.Originally posted by alanspoil
Thanks to LTA for the ref assignments, this is what I see so far.
Only guy I like for under is Washington. The other two guys is actually over guys by basing it on the average for spread if it was the regular season total throughout at 193. Since the total now is at 200.5, I guess you can qualify another ref as being an under ref. 2 under and 1 over.
200 is a dangerous number however, the spread has given them under backers a half a point generosity as it is now at 200.5. Will it go up to 201? I'm taking the under if it does and I hope so. If it is at 200, I just don't know because that's my break even point. Buying the over in this game here is better in the 190's somewhere. At 200+, values are lacking on the over.
I can't believe I'm actually monitoring the total line. I'm learning so that's a good thing.Comment -
OKC game under 200.5 2U
Must buy now because I think the total number is going to drop slightly.Comment -
OKC -5 1U
Bet this funky one here because the gambling god is sure that if I lose, he will give me some boobs and have all the boys chase me in my next life.Comment -
You mean +5?Comment -
LOL...u right....Originally posted by Anthonyg7
my mistake, your error.
Haven't seen your leans or play so had to make some sudden bets on a Metropolis good day....doo doo doottttComment -
2h under 101.5 2U
OKC 2h +4.5 1U
Got ball? Call it crazy.
Now back to the game.Comment -
Nice work once againComment -
Thank you Alan....Originally posted by alanspoil
Lost on the game total but somehow, I do not feel that all so sad about it since the over only creep over by 5.5 points.
I remember saying something in my write up about me knowing that Dallas will not get their days on a back to back and okc also will come down to earth and the 200 marker is about as dangerous as it gets with Vegas being sharp about them lines. I talked about the over but ended up taking the under due to something else that I saw like Ref assignments. Oh well, learn from it and move on to the next game.
okc game 2 total loser
Playoffs record 39-42-1 +35u left to play
There is just something about first half shooting lights out and then the 2nd half, people are slowing down due to fatigue. I don't play 2H much but if this keeps up, I think I'm going to invest in the 2H play to hedge out if possible.2h under 101.5 2U winner
Playoffs record 40-42-1 +37u left to play
OKC +5 1U winnerAnother profitable day. Yes, I'm back to .500 capper league in the playoffOKC 2h +4.5 1U winner
Playoffs record 42-42-1 +39u left to playComment -
I got a write up and ready for you alan but you will have to wait for tomorrow to see it.
I got total and sides with a system play.Comment -
Congrats Brosuf, keep up the good workComment -
This write up was done yesterday:
-okc shot 55% from the field. Game 3, okc is coming down to earth (-)
-okc bench shot 50 points. Game 3, the bench is going to come down to earth. (-)
-okc shot 39% behind the arc. Kinda high there for an okc team plus harden 4-7 from behind the line
Harden needs to prove why he is the next bench 6th man in the playoff. Until then, I'm not buying a 10 points
average Harden to put up another 20+ points. (-)
-okc is also good on defense when they are playing in their house. They limited memphis to a 90 and 72 points in their
elimination games. (-)
-Playoff should be about defense and so far, dallas has gotten 3x back to back 100+ points (lakers/okc/okc) all playing at home.
I don't think they can do another one 100+ on the road to make it a 4 bagger. (-)
-The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City (-)
-Refs are on the under. All 3 of them. (-)
-In this playoff alone, there has not been a 3 games back to back with both teams scoring 100+ points. With adjustments made
on defense for every game, it is unlikely for a 3 peat of both teams hitting 3 times back to back 100+ points. Under is still
strong in the playoff and this is the conference finals so where is my defense? (-)
-sequence play to their previous match up
game3 ????
o
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u <-- in okc total line at 200.5
o <<-- in okc total line at 198
o
u <--- in okc total line at 195.5
o
u <<--- in okc total line at 193.5
u <--- in okc total line at 198.5
Do notice that this stats here is 4 under and 1 over when played in OKC. (-)
However, all them other overs were played in Dallas. Something to think about for the next game.
Wow, I'm seeing nothing but (-) aka under values in my write ups. (-10) This smells like a big play for me. LOL
As expecting,the public seeing how in both games, both teams were in the 100+ points, they are going to play the over. Hopefully this will drive up the total so I can buy the under.
======================================== ========================
I lucked out on tracking these line movements so I'll just play a med size bet on the under here.
OKC total under 199.5 3U
So the game is going back to OKC and with my chasing model, it says to play okc, if lose, double and play okc again.
Well I'm going to add a filter to this. This is going to be my new chasing game plan for this one here.
I'm playing Dallas to win game 3 since dallas is still a tough cookie. Without Harden and the OKC bench going off like that, would
OKC still has a chance to win game 2? Do also note that Dallas played at Par with Dirk hitting his usually upper 20's and Juan B plus
Kidd hitting their 10's and yet, it was still a challenge for OKC.
Dallas did shot 43% and had a slump in points in the 4th quarter. I see an improvement in this plus Dallas is getting points.
So I'm playing Dallas in game 3 and if they win SU, I will play OKC in game 4. If Dallas lose in game 3 SU, there is no play for me in game 4.
Reason for me playing this system is by this stats here.
Oklahoma City is now 23-6 in games following a loss this season.
Oklahoma City has not lost back-to-back games this postseason.
So if OKC loses in game3, a win for me and I will play OKC in game 4 to ride that nice stats. Roar!!!!!
Dallas +2.5 1UComment -
Dallas +5.5 2H 1U
Look at it there. Dallas up by a ton and yet, Dirk didn't even lift a finger for his scores yet. Dirk is a closer so the 2H is dirk's half and get 5.5 when you are having a hard time playing Dallas? Free money?
I'm on it.
First half total is 88. Now they give the total for 2H at 98? Dude, that's dangerous number to give there. Dallas is going to slow it down when they are already leading, if by 20 or more. So what happen if the scores were to switch? OKC gets their run and Dallas skunk? It will still be 88 in the 2H. Under is the play but I'm not buying it.Comment -
Playoffs record 42-43-1 +38u left to playDallas +5.5 2H 1U loser
Playoffs record 43-43-1 +39u left to playDallas +2.5 1U winner
Playoffs record 44-43-1 +42u left to playOKC total under 199.5 3U winner
Another profitable day
Onto my write up for Chicago game 3.....Comment -
Nice work once againComment -
Thanks alan and if you need beer to watch your games, Super Target that sells beer has Samuel Adams 12 pack for $5.Originally posted by alanspoil
I'm not kidding you.
I will have my plays later after I go out and get me some beer for the game. LOLComment -
chicago game 3
-The scores in the 4th quarter was sad at 14-10. Improvements yes (+)
-Bulls shot 34% from the field, 61% free throws, 3 of 20 behind the arc. improvements yes (+)
-Deng just 2 points in the 2nd half. Rose just 21 points. Bosh just 10 points, improvements yes (+)
-Heat 3 for 13 from the arc, 75% free throws. Improvements yes (+)
-The Heat took 14 less shots (68) and two less free throws than the Bulls in game 2. Improvements yes (+)
-zebras assignment is showing an average of 182 (+/- 2) which is over the 179 totals. Slightly over lean (+)
-Sequence Play
Game3 ???
87+86 = 173 U
108+95 = 203 O
95+87 = 182 O
last 3 games that were played in Miami between these two squads and if we go by the given spread today at 179, it shows that the average for 3 of them games are about 186. Now compare that to 179 that is given tonight.
-In the playoff and when playing in miami and if the total is set at 179, it'll look like this.
philly game 1 over
philly game 2 under
philly game 5 over
bos game 1 Over
Bos game 2 over
Bos game 5 over
so techincally, when played in Miami in the playoff, the total game scores have gone over 179 about 5 to 1. (+)
+7 means the play is over. There will be points made to make up from the horrible days that Chicago is getting in game 2.
Chicago over 179.5 2U
As for the sides, I'm cheering for the bulls to win. I have the bulls for the series and plus, a lost by Miami at home will set up a nice situation play for game 4 in Miami.
No play on the sides. I'll just watch it to gain some knowledge for the next one.Comment