Nba_Brosuf mid season to finals cherry picking

[NBA_Brosuf]

Dallas game under 184.5 1U

Followed LTA

[NBA_Brosuf]

memphis +1.5 1U

okc +3 1U

Both Tailing so I really have nothing to say about these games except for riding their game winning trend.

[NBA_Brosuf]

Spurs game under 189 2U loser

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 8 games when playing on the road against Memphis

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 6 games at home

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Memphis's last 8 games when playing at home against San Antonio

I'm not crying about this game at all. The under capping was indeed the winner but with the nba and how stupid the points can jack up with junk last seconds plays, it is just stupid to even bet on the totals. Pop benching his starters to ward off an embarrassment 20 points blowout and what not. I'm through with pop and company.

Playoffs record 13-17 +14u left to play

[NBA_Brosuf]

dallas -4.5 1U

winner

ride the trending trains I tell ya. No need to think if you continue to ride it till she dies in the playoff.

Playoffs record 14-17 +15u left to play

Dallas game under 184.5 1U winner

Playoffs record 15-17 +16u left to play

memphis +1.5 1U winner

Playoffs record 16-17 +17u left to play

[NBA_Brosuf]

okc game under 206 5U winner

okc -3 1U push

Elimination game and you know defense will be up. In order for Denver to win, they need to stop OKC from scoring and for OKC to win, they need to stop Denver from scoring. Both teams will play their best defense against each other. This isn't game 1. This is the final countdown game. Under is my big play.

Total I'm seeing should be around the 198 mark.

-The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Oklahoma City's last 10 games on the road
-The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games when playing Denver
-The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
-The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Denver's last 25 games
-The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games at home
-The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City
-The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City

Playoffs record 17-17-1 +22u left to play

Next game in OKC...I'm on under again if total is 204 or higher.

[NBA_Brosuf]

chicago game under 187.5 2U

Saw Rose still limping in practice and wearing slippers. He is not 100% healthy and he will be playing hurt. His injury will be a concern on his mind. When Chicago was healthy, their last total was at 189-191 and it still goes under in their last 3 games. Now, just a 2 points drop, that is a discount. Under is my play plus Chicago Defense, if they are really good in Defense, Indy wouldn't get anything so that also pushes for the under. It is also the elimination theory for under for both teams will put up their best D for a possible last game of the series.

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Indiana's last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indiana's last 9 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 9 games when playing Indiana

[NBA_Brosuf]

chicago under 94.5 1st half 1U

[Love The Action]

I like the over but good luck!

[NBA_Brosuf]

Indiana +9 1U

Line came out at 11 but why didn't I buy it? Oh well, 9 is good enough. I love taking points when a team beats you and the next game, they also gets point. Not small points but a gigantic loads of points. Not only that, Rose is playing hurt.

ATL +7 2U

Same reason as above. ATL beat Orl and next game, they are getting far more point than they needed to. Vegas is pushing the line again like in Game 1, so inflated to trap someone. The public is getting smarter and will continue to pound them dogs. I'm riding with the trend. If it did not break then why fix it? If it is still riding on a trend, why fight it and go the other way? The only thing I don't like is for the motivation by ATL. A loss tonight, ATL can take it back to their fans and can win it for their fans at home so a loss here by ATL who is in the driver seat is a possible so ATL is in a good shape. Does this push their motivation to win? Not really but lets keep it close so the dogs will continue to eat up the spread. No blow out ok?

"The Magic are on ATS slides of 2-9 at home, 1-9 as a home favorite, 3-14 after a non-cover, 7-19 overall and 8-20-1 against a team with a winning record. The Hawks are on ATS surges of 6-0 after a win and 8-1 after a spread-cover. " - Bobby

ATL under 178 1U

Riding elimination game under theory until it folds.

Hornet +10 1U

Small play here with a playing hurt Kobe. Sure Kobe and company can win the game but will it be a blow out game? I am not seeing it. It all depends on how well Hornets are playing and how well cp3 will perform out there. Keep it close is about the best bet that hornet can do in this game, even with an uneffective kobe.

No play on the total since it is not an elimination game.

[NBA_Brosuf]

I like the over but good luck!

I know you do and like always, you see where my errors are at and I appreciated that.

I just don't have the ready stats to see it thus all like how it went under because a key factor is the 3 ball. It was a tad low for Chicago to throw out that 3 ball due to the defense of Indy. Chicago making a few more 3 balls and the game is shooting over.

I'm going along with Rose and what his strengths are like explosiveness with his first quick step to set him up for his killer lay ups or shots. The guy is injured so there will not be any first step and they ware monitoring him to give him less minutes out there to heal himself. The playoff is still a long way to go so it is better take a loss tonight by chicago and chicago will still be ok than losing another ankle by Rose which then puts them out of the playoff totally.

I'm seeing that but them over chasers are just that, chasing because something is due. Also, I'm seeing that Steromyer (sp?) guy when he came back to help out the knicks after his injury, he was ineffective. Will rose and Kobe be ineffective tonight? We will just have to wait and see.

Best of luck to all of us and a good game for us to watch. I don't mind losing money but just give me a good game to watch. Amen.

[NBA_Brosuf]

No game under 183 1U

What the hey, I gave in and tailed LTA. Always loving his outlook on games.

[NBA_Brosuf]

ATL +7 2U loser

ATL under 178 1U winner

Playoffs record 18-18-1 +21u left to play

[NBA_Brosuf]

chicago under 94.5 1st half 1U loser

Playoffs record 18-19-1 +20u left to play

[NBA_Brosuf]

Lakers -6 1H 1U

under 93 1H 1U

Got to shoot some more to get back my lost thus far. LOL

[NBA_Brosuf]

lakers -3 1qt 1U

I'm on tilt....arggggg


under 46.5 1qt 1U

Ok, no more bets for me. Save some to shoot for tomorrow. I'm playing the OKC game under again tomorrow. Can't wait.

[NBA_Brosuf]

chicago game under 187.5 2U loser

Playoffs record 18-20-1 +18u left to play

[NBA_Brosuf]

under 46.5 1qt 1U loser

Playoffs record 18-21-1 +17u left to play

lakers -3 1qt 1U loser

Playoffs record 18-22-1 +16u left to play

[NBA_Brosuf]

under 93 1H 1U loser

Playoffs record 18-23-1 +15u left to play

Lakers -6 1H 1U loser

Playoffs record 18-24-1 +14u left to play
1st quarter lose
1st half lose

I had enough beating for the night....I'm not going to try the 2nd half. arggggg

[NBA_Brosuf]

No game under 183 1U loser

Hornet +10 1U loser

bad bad night for me. 1-9? Are you kidding me? Down 8U in one day is a big ouch for me.

Playoffs record 18-26-1 +12u left to play

[NBA_Brosuf]

Big play for me tomorrow. I would love to play this one game with an all in but the playoff is still young so I'll ride decent on it.

I'll watch the line and post my play after I place my bet. 1 game for me only, 5U with write up....I feel confident about it. Lets get um...

[sportfan]

OkC -6.5 ?

[NBA_Brosuf]

OkC -6.5 ?

You read my mind well. I like to shoot in this game here. I have to gather all of my info before I pick my 1 and only game for tomorrow.

I need to conserve my bankroll and start playing smart. Oh and money management skills, that is something I need to understand. Like tonight, I was trigger happy so I ended up playing some stupid games, knowing that I'm sitting with bookies money so I have nothing much to lose. A drought will happen and what am I going to do now that my bankroll dropped?

Pissed off at myself for not sticking with the plan. Dust that flavor off my shoulder and onto the next game. ARgghhhhh

[Lee]

same here nba_brosuf.. damn!

[alanspoil]

Good luck with your picks.

[NBA_Brosuf]

Miami -10.5 5U

Riding big here with Miami at home to win out the series. Not only this, I'm tailing these cappers with the ok sign to play Miami. bl, lc, snowball, sj

Wish them all the best of luck.

Okc game under 204.5 2U

This here is or should be my biggest play of the day but I chicken out and drop only a little one on it due to capping skills by bl and lc who plays the over. This is my nice write up to why I think it will be under.

Game 4
"Ty Lawson scored a career playoff high 27 points, Danilio Gallinari had 18 and the Denver Nuggets staved off elimination with a nail-biting 104-101 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday night.

Kevin Durant led the Thunder with 31 and Russell Westbrook had 30. Serge Ibaka had 13 points and 14 rebounds for his third double-double of the series."

You got 2 guys hitting 30+ points for okc and 1 guy shooting his career high at 27 points for denver and it still hits under or 205 in this case. So in dollar and sense, for the over to hit, they need to reproduce the same scores or better. In the last game they are shooting 47% and 37% 3 balls and for over to hit, they need to hit a higher percentage behind the arc. I don't think so buddy.

Last time these two teams went over was in game 1 where durant had 41 and westbrook 31. Nene had 22 points for denver. Durant 41 points is his new playoff high. Yet still in game one, the total was only 210.

In game 5, an elimination game, the defense on both teams will step up because both teams wanted a win. When it gets more intense, your defense is going to step up right? When you lead, you are going to play the clock. OKC does not need a blowout win here. They just need a win to close this series out. Denver is #1 in the league with points per game but this is the playoff so your regular season stats don't count. To make matters worse, your stats in this round 1 series does not show at all thus why, betting the under is the best bang for my buck.

I just hate it and dearly hate it when I see something nice but gets yellowed out by good cappers on this forum. To go against them is just foolish as I trust them more than I trust my own capping skills. Maybe someday I will ride on my own because I'm using logic to try to make some cents. Lets get um.

[NBA_Brosuf]

Good luck with your picks.

Maybe you should try picking and maybe I should follow?

I don't mind follow if what people say makes sense. don't matter if fade or follow, it is all about picking spots and making the money.

Best of luck to all of us.

[NBA_Brosuf]

Bet with confidence.


Durant needs another record playoff score of 41 for the over to hit. Lawson needs another record breaking high score for over to hit. Westbrook needs to ball hog more to get over 30 points for the over to hit.

Their 3 ball percentage is already as high as is like in 38 to 40% so 3 balls in this game here, I'm not too worried about.

Elimination game theory factor shoots for under. Opens at 205 but lines dropped only by half a point? No conspiracy theory here.

Only minus part is zebras on the over and public is on the under.

Okc scored 100 or more points in their last 7 of 8 last games with denver. No doubt that OKC can score but can denver score? Denver against okc, they are 4-4 going over 100+ points.

When will the defense shows up, if any or at all?

[NBA_Brosuf]

Heat over 186 2U

Following LC and LTA

Hope you guys are right. I'm just following blindly like a mouse on this one. I didn't even cap this game myself. Best of luck to us all.

[Love The Action]

I like the over in the okc game myself, but I enjoyed your writeup. Good work. You should trust your own skills and only tail someone else if you really agree. Don't ever go against your own instincts or you will regret it more often than not. Good luck on all your plays!

[NBA_Brosuf]

I like the over in the okc game myself, but I enjoyed your writeup. Good work. You should trust your own skills and only tail someone else if you really agree. Don't ever go against your own instincts or you will regret it more often than not. Good luck on all your plays!

Thanks to you, I added a different angle when capping totals with your styles of capping. I still have a lot to learn. My mind is still bogging on the okc totals thus why I didn't even look at the miami game at all. LOL

Do continue with your write up LTA. Most often time, I'm tailing you.

[NBA_Brosuf]

Miami -10.5 5U loser

Riding big here with Miami at home to win out the series. Not only this, I'm tailing these cappers with the ok sign to play Miami. bl, lc, snowball, sj

Wish them all the best of luck.

Okc game under 204.5 2U winner

This here is or should be my biggest play of the day but I chicken out and drop only a little one on it due to capping skills by bl and lc who plays the over. This is my nice write up to why I think it will be under.

Game 4
"Ty Lawson scored a career playoff high 27 points, Danilio Gallinari had 18 and the Denver Nuggets staved off elimination with a nail-biting 104-101 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday night.

Kevin Durant led the Thunder with 31 and Russell Westbrook had 30. Serge Ibaka had 13 points and 14 rebounds for his third double-double of the series."

You got 2 guys hitting 30+ points for okc and 1 guy shooting his career high at 27 points for denver and it still hits under or 205 in this case. So in dollar and sense, for the over to hit, they need to reproduce the same scores or better. In the last game they are shooting 47% and 37% 3 balls and for over to hit, they need to hit a higher percentage behind the arc. I don't think so buddy.

Last time these two teams went over was in game 1 where durant had 41 and westbrook 31. Nene had 22 points for denver. Durant 41 points is his new playoff high. Yet still in game one, the total was only 210.

In game 5, an elimination game, the defense on both teams will step up because both teams wanted a win. When it gets more intense, your defense is going to step up right? When you lead, you are going to play the clock. OKC does not need a blowout win here. They just need a win to close this series out. Denver is #1 in the league with points per game but this is the playoff so your regular season stats don't count. To make matters worse, your stats in this round 1 series does not show at all thus why, betting the under is the best bang for my buck.

I just hate it and dearly hate it when I see something nice but gets yellowed out by good cappers on this forum. To go against them is just foolish as I trust them more than I trust my own capping skills. Maybe someday I will ride on my own because I'm using logic to try to make some cents. Lets get um.

I tailed good cappers and got stung. I went on my own and felt good. I think I'm going to cap games by myself now. I'm tired of getting stung tailing with confidence. I didn't expect Durant to tie his playoff record but the guy is just too good. You are only allowed to tie or break your own record like once every 10 or more games but to do so in a few games after, you are just too good. I give Durant my total respect now. If I have the MVP award, I'll vote and nominate him over Rose. OKC, as long as they can shoot out 100+ points, they will be a threat in the playoff. Watch Out, OKC to the final.

Not only that, I say that Westbrook and lawson is not going to get no ridiculous points because they are not allstars caliber. Good thing those two guys bunked to drive the scoring down. West had 15, way below his average and lawson, he did the same. Thank goodness.

Playoffs record 19-25-1 +11u left to play

[NBA_Brosuf]

Heat over 186 2U winner

Following LC and LTA

Hope you guys are right. I'm just following blindly like a mouse on this one. I didn't even cap this game myself. Best of luck to us all.

Playoffs record 20-25-1 +13u left to play

[NBA_Brosuf]

Dallas game over 182 3U

I'm playing this game at 3U because I'm seeing something here. In their last game, Dirk scored only 25 points. Pretty low for him eh?

-Blazers took just 19 free throw attempts, compared to 35 attempts for Dallas.
-LaMarcus Aldridge scored just 12 points, and he didn’t attempt a single free throw.
-Roy was just 2-for-7 from the field, finishing with five points.

And yet, the total was 175 in that game. If we take 182 (tonight's game) minus 175, we see a difference of 7 points. So my prediction is that in game 6, Aldrige is going to score more than 12 and he will get some free throws, Dirk will shoot better to match his seasonal average, Roy will get more than 5 points.

All these factors combined and you telling me that you can't give me no stinking 7 more points for a push? Efff that chit. I'm playing the over.

Bet with confidence.

I will have my 5U play later on when I wake up. I am confident with this play here but I'm holding out to get a better value. I have learned to watch the line movement, not because of trying to fade the public but to buy it at the best price if possible. I know huh, these games have been too sharp like trying to beat the line is not just a bonus but it is a mandatory thing to do. Best of luck to us.

[NBA_Brosuf]

Orlando game over 178 2U

I'm saving the 5U play for the Lakers game but this game here is just me smelling the water. I see something interesting with this game here.

-Orlando scored 101 points right? However, they only shot 41%.
-Howard only got 8 points but yet, the team score is 101.
-Both teams had a super low turn over rates and this stats here is my only concern when playing the over.
-ATL leading scorers (Jamal Crawford and Joe Johnson) shoot only 4 for 20 and yet, atl team score was 82.

Now in game 6 here, I'm expecting for everyone to play better. ATL won Orlando when they single team defense Howard and allows him to rack up them points but the rest of this team mates suffers in scoring. This is ATL only strategy to beat Orlando. In game 5, they double teamed Howard which results in the guy not having points but the ball kicks on out for the 3 ball and other uncontested shots by other Orlando players. ATL is going back to their original defense if they want to hang with Orlando tonight. ATL leading scorers are going to pack that score up to get it past 82 (their game 5 score). In other words, it has the printing of the over at 178. Not my strongest play but a play regardless.

[Love The Action]

Miami -10.5 5U

Riding big here with Miami at home to win out the series. Not only this, I'm tailing these cappers with the ok sign to play Miami. bl, lc, snowball, sj

Wish them all the best of luck.

Okc game under 204.5 2U

This here is or should be my biggest play of the day but I chicken out and drop only a little one on it due to capping skills by bl and lc who plays the over. This is my nice write up to why I think it will be under.

Game 4
"Ty Lawson scored a career playoff high 27 points, Danilio Gallinari had 18 and the Denver Nuggets staved off elimination with a nail-biting 104-101 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday night.

Kevin Durant led the Thunder with 31 and Russell Westbrook had 30. Serge Ibaka had 13 points and 14 rebounds for his third double-double of the series."

You got 2 guys hitting 30+ points for okc and 1 guy shooting his career high at 27 points for denver and it still hits under or 205 in this case. So in dollar and sense, for the over to hit, they need to reproduce the same scores or better. In the last game they are shooting 47% and 37% 3 balls and for over to hit, they need to hit a higher percentage behind the arc. I don't think so buddy.

Last time these two teams went over was in game 1 where durant had 41 and westbrook 31. Nene had 22 points for denver. Durant 41 points is his new playoff high. Yet still in game one, the total was only 210.

In game 5, an elimination game, the defense on both teams will step up because both teams wanted a win. When it gets more intense, your defense is going to step up right? When you lead, you are going to play the clock. OKC does not need a blowout win here. They just need a win to close this series out. Denver is #1 in the league with points per game but this is the playoff so your regular season stats don't count. To make matters worse, your stats in this round 1 series does not show at all thus why, betting the under is the best bang for my buck.

I just hate it and dearly hate it when I see something nice but gets yellowed out by good cappers on this forum. To go against them is just foolish as I trust them more than I trust my own capping skills. Maybe someday I will ride on my own because I'm using logic to try to make some cents. Lets get um.

Great call on that under...see, like I said, you just need to stick with your own calls. At the end of the day, you will feel better about it. Nothing is worse that liking one play, only to take the other side based on someone else's pick, and your original call turns out to be right.

Good luck on all of your plays tonight! However, I hope you are wrong about the overs in the Orl/Atl and Dal/Por games...I'm on the under in those...