70% system 2010-2011

[barts185]

What a 2nd quarter, even though I didn't play it, wasn't expecting that!

[barts185]

record update

Definite plays 5-14
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.


Possible plays 5-1
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.



Tied record plays 0-1

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss

[barts185]

12/31/10

No plays

CHI, still -10, so no play.

BOS, but Garnett now added to the list of injuries


Happy New Year!

[Welt446+]

01/01/11

Nothing today

[barts185]

01/01/11

Nothing today

I agree

NOR, dd line b2b
CHI, dd line and b2b
DEN, dd line and lineup issues (Anthony, while out for personal reasons, due back, Nene questionable, Martin expected to play)
DAL, but Nowitzki has now missed 2 games, and MAY sit out both games this weekend as of now (even though he keeps saying his knee is feeling better).

[BillyGoat]

I came here to ask if NO was a play today, what does dd line mean?

thanks

edit: is it double digit line?

[barts185]

I came here to ask if NO was a play today, what does dd line mean?
thanks

dd line means double digit line, but that was a mistake for NOR, which I just fixed - thanks.

NOR is b2b, which means they are playing with no rest, having played yesterday, which also eliminates them as a play.

[Garland Baseball]

Hey Bart....Do you still get those Outlaw biker plays?

[barts185]

Hey Bart....Do you still get those Outlaw biker plays?

I really don't know what you're talking about, so I'm guessing not.

[Garland Baseball]

I really don't know what you're talking about, so I'm guessing not.

I forgot what they were called but thought I was close.....Isnt this BartQS185?

[barts185]

I forgot what they were called but thought I was close.....Isnt this BartQS185?

Yes, and still not sure what you are talking about.

Not trying to be difficult, just don't recall anything close to outlaw biker plays, sorry.

I've dealt with a bunch of different places over time, so it might just be that I forgot, but I definitely am not dealing with anything named anything like that now.

[Garland Baseball]

sorry for the mini hi-jack of the thread but I used to be on a email list with you ran by Bobby Byrde, I was the "other" NHL player besides Bobby who we both knew stunk...RIP

[barts185]

You can always PM me rather than posting in the thread, but since we're this far along, should be the final post, if you want to talk further, PM me.


I didn't realize you were going back that far. I used to get what I called outlaw plays (don't think I ever used biker, so maybe that's where I was confused since I thought maybe you were referring to another group), but I stopped getting them.

Take Care,
Bart

[Welt446+]

01/02/11

Nothing today - everything that qualifies numerically is injury ridden

[barts185]

01/02/11

Nothing today - everything that qualifies numerically is injury ridden

I agree - ATL/BOS/DAL(also b2b) - the dropoff for DAL w/o Nowitzki is big.

[Welt446+]

01/03/11

Nothing qualifies - The only team that qualifies numerically is the Jazz and Kirilenko has only been back for 1 game and has questionable returning stats.

[barts185]

01/03/11

Nothing qualifies - The only team that qualifies numerically is the Jazz and Kirilenko has only been back for 1 game and has questionable returning stats.

Thanks - I'm running behind and hadn't been able to do it today.

[smallbluedonkey]

Chicago -7.5 is a play, but serious RLM happening there. What gives?

[Welt446+]

Chicago -7.5 is a play, but serious RLM happening there. What gives?

Chicago is without Noah. Noah has started 24 of Chicago's 34 games. Also, it looks like Gibson hasn't really recovered from his concussion and his stats are iffy.

[barts185]

Just to add a few things:

Miami line has dropped to -10, at -9.5 they the math would work, but they are on b2b.

Noah has been out since 12/15, and is going to be out awhile - are we just eliminating Chicago while he is out? That wasn't my impression of how this worked, but checking. After waiting a week (so starting 12/23), CHI is 4-1 SU but 1-4 ATS.

Re: Gibson (not a starter), I'm not sure what "symptom free" means for a concussion, but if someone is saying they are having difficulty counting, and is having difficulty looking at lights, that seems like they still are having issues to me.


ATL qualifies, but Williams is out again, until at least 01/08 and more likely 01/11.

DAL, with a line move to -3, qualifies, but Nowitzki is out again, and now Butler just had surgery, might be out the rest of the season.

Good Luck,
Bart

[Welt446+]

Gibson has started 15 games for the Bulls and he is in the most used starting line up for the Bulls (which stands at 13 games). The starting lineup that the Bulls have at this moment has started 6 games.

[barts185]

Gibson has started 15 games for the Bulls and he is in the most used starting line up for the Bulls (which stands at 13 games). The starting lineup that the Bulls have at this moment has started 6 games.

True, but Gibson has only started 1 game since 11/27. He started games early in the season due to injuries.

[barts185]

I just want to make sure that what I'm saying isn't misinterpreted.

I'm not saying that Gibson isn't an important contributor and someone to be considered.

I'm just saying that he really isn't a starter.

If everyone is healthy, who do you think are the starters for CHI?

I would go with

K. Bogans ▪ C. Boozer ▪ L. Deng ▪ J. Noah ▪ D. Rose

[barts185]

Early look at games for 01/05, where they have lines up (PHI -7 / ORL -11.5 / NJN +4.5 / BOS -2 / HOU -5.5 / LAC +3.5 / PHO +4)

While some of the teams involved are playing today, the only game which looks like it could qualify is CHI, and they would be b2b, not to mention the other issues currently being discussed.

[demens]

Chicago -7.5 is a play, but serious RLM happening there. What gives?

You use SDQL right? Can you answer this

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/866982-sdql-query-help.html

[barts185]

Final for 01/05

Nothing qualified on the opening lines.

With a line move to Denver -2.5, they would qualify with a value of 10.1, but I'm passing, guess it should count for the system, looking for feedback.

Not sure if Anthony's absence counts since it was personal, not an injury, but I just don't think he wants to be in Denver.

[barts185]

Also, for yesterday, putting CHI in the Possible play category since as I posted, Noah had been out for well over a week, and Gibson, while important, is not a starter, so technically isn't part of the system. I'm not even sure that it wouldn't be a "definite" play, but listing is as possible.


Definite plays 5-14
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.


Possible plays 6-1
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson (not a starter) was still was having issues from concussion
01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+)


Tied record plays 0-1

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss

[sneak-a-peak]

Final for 01/05

Nothing qualified on the opening lines.

With a line move to Denver -2.5, they would qualify with a value of 10.1, but I'm passing, guess it should count for the system, looking for feedback.

Not sure if Anthony's absence counts since it was personal, not an injury, but I just don't think he wants to be in Denver.

Ya Im really not sure what to think about this Denver play.

These plays got me 2nd guessing a lot this year.

I'm obviously really disappointed with the way things have gone so far.....

All the possible plays are hitting and I'm passing on them, Meanwhile the other plays are not producing at all.

I'm doing really well in other areas and have been set back quite a bit by these plays. Not sure what to do at this point from here on out.

[barts185]

01/06

DAL qualifies, but has injuries, Nowitzki still out (this is the longest I ever remember him being out, starting to be concerned that something is seriously wrong with his knee). Also, confirmed that Chandler Butler (corrected thanks to celtics3388) is now out for the season.

So, how long is Dallas on the do not play list even when Nowitzki comes back?


DEN qualifies, but is on B2B, and as I said yesterday, I need to see something out of their players before I would put any money on them anyway.

[barts185]

Definite plays 5-14
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.


Possible plays 6-2
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.



Tied record plays 0-1

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss

[celtics3388]

since when is chandler out for the season?

[barts185]

since when is chandler out for the season?

My mistake - Butler is out for the season.

Sorry - fixing prior post.

[Welt446+]

01/07

It looks like the Spurs are a play up to -6.5

[barts185]

01/07

It looks like the Spurs are a play up to -6.5

Parker missed Friday's shootaround and is questionable for today's game with "cold-like" symptoms.

Other possible's, were these all eliminated due to injury?

CHI
K. Bogans ▪ C. Boozer ▪ L. Deng ▪ D. Rose ▪ K. Thomas
have been the starters since 12/21, I asked before, and don't think I got an answer - are you just eliminating CHI until Noah gets back? Not my understanding of how it's supposed to work.


BOS - Garnett's 4th missed game, been out since 12/31

UTA would qualify if it goes to +2.5, but Milsap missed last game and is questionable.

[smallbluedonkey]

Spurs is a play

I would count Chicago as a play too.

Boston is tricky. Garnett has missed 4 games, the line is close to being a no-play as it is, plus Boston are 1-3 ATS without Garnett. But they are playing the Raptors whom they beat by 14 pts without Garnett only 5 days ago. Boston are only 6-11 ATS at home this season as 0-4 ATS at home in their last 4 games. They haven't covered a spread at home since 19/12 against the Pacers and they only covered then by 2 points. I am going to say NO PLAY on Boston.