70% system 2010-2011

[barts185]

(I'm also on Spurs -3, but that's a different system)

Nice call.

[cancan]

BOL on your plays today

[Welt446+]

01/14/11

It looks like everything that would qualify numerically is disqualified due to injury

[barts185]

While BOS has a lot of injuries, their starting 5 of

R. Allen ▪ G. Davis ▪ S. O'Neal ▪ P. Pierce ▪ R. Rondo

have been in place since 01/02, 7 games

5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS

[CapDees70]

Looks like Milwaukee, Detroit, NYK and Bos are poss plays

[barts185]

Looks like Milwaukee, Detroit, NYK and Bos are poss plays

DET, with the line move, would qualify as a fade of TOR, with the value moving to -1.2 at a line of TOR -1.5.

However, DET has had a lineup change, with T-Mac (Tracy McGrady) now starting.\

Also, Wallace, who missed last game, is listed as anywhere from questionable to expected to miss for tonight's game.

[barts185]

MIL, with the line move, would qualify as a fade of PHI, with the value moving to -1.2 at a line of PHI -4.5

Bogut is questionable. He says he's going to try to play, despite dealing with a back issue and a viral infection which has lasted a month.

Drew Gooden played for 10 minutes last game, his first game since 12/20/10. I'm not sure how long he will play tonight.

[barts185]

Any chance someone else can go over the Knicks issues?

Thanks.

[Welt446+]

Any chance someone else can go over the Knicks issues?

Thanks.

Gallinari has been out for the last 5 games. He has started 33 of New Yorks games.

[smallbluedonkey]

[deleted post]

[barts185]

record update

Definite plays 9-17
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/09 NOR +5 (fade of DEN at -1 or worse) win
01/10 CHI -9.5 (10+) win Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/11 SAS -6 (10+) win
01/12 NOR +4 (fade of ORL at -1 or less) win
01/12 MIA -8 (10+) loss



Possible plays 8-4
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
01/07 BOS -9 (10+) win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.
01/12 DAL +1.5 (10+) loss Both Nowitzki and Chandler have been out for over a week.
01/14 BOS -8.5 (10+) loss lot of injuries, but starting 5 of R. Allen / G. Davis / S. O'Neal / P. Pierce / R. Rondo have been in place since 01/02
01/14 MIL +4.5 (fade of PHI at -1 or worse) win Bogut questionable (played), Gooden 2nd game back, didn't start 1st game back, played 10 minutes. Gooden didn't start, played 22 minutes.





Tied record plays 0-1

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss

[barts185]

01/15/11



NOR - With the line move, NOR qualifies, but have a number of injury questions, which is why the line moved.


DAL qualifies, but back to back and injuries (rumors that Dirk Nowitzki might return tonight)


CHI - If the line of MIA -2.5 is accurate (most places don't have it up), CHI would qualify but on back to back.



No plays.

[barts185]

01/16/11 early report

LAL -6 comes in with a value of 10.5, looks like it would be a play.

SAS is close, will have to see after Denver's game on 01/15 and if there is any line move. At SAS -7.5, even if Denver loses on 01/15, no play, value would come in at 9.8 for SAS.

[Welt446+]

Lakers are indeed a play - up to -6 by my calculations

[smallbluedonkey]

Lakers are indeed a play - up to -6 by my calculations

Yep.

[kingofmonash]

clippers are on a roll ,

[PatrickBateman]

Eric Gordon had a monster game

[barts185]

Definite plays 9-18
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/09 NOR +5 (fade of DEN at -1 or worse) win
01/10 CHI -9.5 (10+) win Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/11 SAS -6 (10+) win
01/12 NOR +4 (fade of ORL at -1 or less) win
01/12 MIA -8 (10+) loss
01/16 LAL -6 (10+) loss



Possible plays 8-4
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
01/07 BOS -9 (10+) win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.
01/12 DAL +1.5 (10+) loss Both Nowitzki and Chandler have been out for over a week.
01/14 BOS -8.5 (10+) loss lot of injuries, but starting 5 of R. Allen / G. Davis / S. O'Neal / P. Pierce / R. Rondo have been in place since 01/02
01/14 MIL +4.5 (fade of PHI at -1 or worse) win Bogut questionable (played), Gooden 2nd game back, didn't start 1st game back, played 10 minutes. Gooden didn't start, played 22 minutes.





Tied record plays 0-1

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss

[Welt446+]

01/17/11

Jazz are a play at -6 or better

[barts185]

Boozer out for CHI, so not a play.

[barts185]

PHI was -5 in places, which would make them a fade, looking for info on CHA

[cancan]

01/17/11

Jazz are a play at -6 or better

Wagered at Pinnacle -4.5. TY

[barts185]

Is there a reason why ATL -9.5 doesn't qualify?

Looks like the lineup has had some changes, but not injuries.

I guess if the lineup changes at a coaches decision, does this elminate the team? What about teams where the coach situationally changes lineups? Seems like they would never qualify.

[Welt446+]

Is there a reason why ATL -9.5 doesn't qualify?

Looks like the lineup has had some changes, but not injuries.

I guess if the lineup changes at a coaches decision, does this elminate the team? What about teams where the coach situationally changes lineups? Seems like they would never qualify.

Marvin Williams is out. Without him, Atlanta is 6-5. Most of those losses were from his injury earlier this season. He has been out for the last 7 games and Atlanta is 5-2 with his recent absence. I personally wouldn't play a team after seeing their performance in 7 games without a starter (I would do this with a 20 game sample without a starter).

[barts185]

record update:

PHI line went up to -5.5, so including CHA as a play, unless someone says they should go into the possible play category for some reason.


Definite plays 10-19
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/09 NOR +5 (fade of DEN at -1 or worse) win
01/10 CHI -9.5 (10+) win Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/11 SAS -6 (10+) win
01/12 NOR +4 (fade of ORL at -1 or less) win
01/12 MIA -8 (10+) loss
01/16 LAL -6 (10+) loss
01/17 UTA -4.5 (10+) loss
01/17 CHA +5 (fade of PHI -1 or worse) win



Possible plays 8-5
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) win line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
01/07 BOS -9 (10+) win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.
01/12 DAL +1.5 (10+) loss Both Nowitzki and Chandler have been out for over a week.
01/14 BOS -8.5 (10+) loss lot of injuries, but starting 5 of R. Allen / G. Davis / S. O'Neal / P. Pierce / R. Rondo have been in place since 01/02
01/14 MIL +4.5 (fade of PHI at -1 or worse) win Bogut questionable (played), Gooden 2nd game back, didn't start 1st game back, played 10 minutes. Gooden didn't start, played 22 minutes.
01/17 ATL -9.5 (10+) loss lineup changes / Williams has been out for 7 games, CHI is 5-2





Tied record plays 0-1

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss

[Welt446+]

record update: PHI line went up to -5.5, so including CHA as a play, unless someone says they should go into the possible play category for some reason.

The Bobcats were definitely a play. I never suspected that there would be that much of a change in the spread.

[Welt446+]

01/18/11

Nothing today. LeBron hasn't been playing much lately.

[cancan]

OK, stop today, only 2 matches!

[barts185]

01/18/11

Nothing today. LeBron hasn't been playing much lately.

Miami is definitely having some injury issue right now.

Bosh is defnitely out tonight

Wade is expected to play, but didn't practice yesterday or at this morning's shootaround.

James I'm seeing listed in some places as expected to play, other places game time decision. He did not take part in this morning's shootaround.

[barts185]

Early report for tomorrow, lot of possibilities, looking for feedback on injuries and reasons not to play teams.



UTA -6.5, comes in at 10+


BOS, but without getting into other issues, dd line so eliminated.


WAS +7 comes in as a fade of MIL (value comes out to -1.0 with a line of MIL -7) with MIL also going from positive to negative.


SAS but double digit line so eliminated


DAL comes in as a fade of LAL, but Chandler is questionable due to a lingering cold (would be 1st game back after 2 out) and it will only be Nowitzki's 3rd game back.


POR, at -1.5 (has already moved to -2 in places) comes in at 10+, wouldn't qualify at -2.0


GSW -4 comes in at -0.8, so if it goes to -4.5, IND would become a play as a fade of GSW

[Welt446+]

Early report for tomorrow, lot of possibilities, looking for feedback on injuries and reasons not to play teams. UTA -6.5, comes in at 10+ BOS, but without getting into other issues, dd line so eliminated. WAS +7 comes in as a fade of MIL (value comes out to -1.0 with a line of MIL -7) with MIL also going from positive to negative. SAS but double digit line so eliminated DAL comes in as a fade of LAL, but Chandler is questionable due to a lingering cold (would be 1st game back after 2 out) and it will only be Nowitzki's 3rd game back. POR, at -1.5 (has already moved to -2 in places) comes in at 10+, wouldn't qualify at -2.0 GSW -4 comes in at -0.8, so if it goes to -4.5, IND would become a play as a fade of GSW

Camby is out for the Trailblazers

Pacers should be a play if the line moves to +4.5

It's the Wizards at +7.5 by my calculations

[cancan]

Let's have some winners today

[barts185]

It's the Wizards at +7.5 by my calculations

I guess you're using more than 3 decimal places, and I agree. In the future, if it comes out exactly, I'll see what it is if I use the entire percentage.

[barts185]

So I guess one play and one possible

UTA is a play

IND is only a play if the line moves to +4.5 (currently +4)

[barts185]

WAS line moved down to +6 overnight, not sure if they would qualify even if it was mathematically eligible.

A. Blatche ▪ R. Lewis ▪ J. McGee ▪ J. Wall ▪ N. Young

Have started as much as anyone, but that's only 8 games.

Just curious if people would have used them at +7.5

Thanks.