70% system 2010-2011

[barts185]

The system excludes double-digit favourites i.e.: no lines of -10 or worse.

I understand that, but this was definitely available at -9.5

I'm just trying to understand when a game would considered to be part of the plays or not as lines move throughout the day.

Are we using closing lines? This was something which was discussed, but never really came to an agreement on last year.

If this no longer counts, then what about games which aren't within the parameters at the opening line, but are eligible as the line moves during the day?

Thanks.

[dau2ecko5]

12/18/10

no play today

due to injuries on the bulls team and also utah jazz

[sneak-a-peak]

What is Utahs injury scenario?

[smallbluedonkey]

I understand that, but this was definitely available at -9.5

I'm just trying to understand when a game would considered to be part of the plays or not as lines move throughout the day.

Are we using closing lines? This was something which was discussed, but never really came to an agreement on last year.

If this no longer counts, then what about games which aren't within the parameters at the opening line, but are eligible as the line moves during the day?

Thanks.

Well, if you can get it at -9.5 it's a play. If you can't then it's not. I'll be counting it as part of the system play because I COULD HAVE taken it at -9.5.

It's a grey area though, so I know where you are coming from.

[smallbluedonkey]

What is Utahs injury scenario?

Don't know about injuries, but the Jazz are on BTB anyway.

[barts185]

Raja Bell missed 3 games with a strained right adductor. This is only his second game back, UTA is not eligible until he's been back a week according to the rules.

Even without that, UTA is on back-to-back, so aren't eligible.

[sneak-a-peak]

Don't know about injuries, but the Jazz are on BTB anyway.

Thanks guys.

[DuncHen22]

ATL -4 on Sunday is a play (10.39). Boston -9 is a potential play (12) but I don't think I want to play it since Rondo is hurt.

[Welt446+]

ATL -4 on Sunday is a play (10.39). Boston -9 is a potential play (12) but I don't think I want to play it since Rondo is hurt.

For the Hawks, it's Joe Johnson's second game back. Johnson's stats looked up to par with his pre-injury stats (though only against an average team). Also without Johnson, the Hawks are 5-4. If you do the math with that number, it's still a play. Just something to think about

It's probably a great play.

[barts185]

Listing ATL today under possible plays since Johnson definitely hasn't been back a week. Not listing Boston since this will be 2nd game without Rondo, Shaq is a game time decision, would be his 5th missed game and now the person who was starting for him, Erden (also game time decision), is questionable with a groin pull.


record update

Definite plays 4-11
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.




Possible plays 3-0
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
pending 12/19 ATL +4 (10+) Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.



Tied record plays 0-1

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss

[VicVega91]

Best of luck today!!!

[barts185]

Not that I think it's necessary, but just a reminder that there were trades yesterday. Lineups changing for ORL/WAS/PHO.

[chizzy]

quite likely due to johnson, there was a 1 point reverse line movement in favour of New Jersey. Nice in hindsight i know, but is there any way to back test this system and see how well the plays do when they contradict reverse line movement? as it may be able to be used as a filter???

[barts185]

quite likely due to johnson, there was a 1 point reverse line movement in favour of New Jersey. Nice in hindsight i know, but is there any way to back test this system and see how well the plays do when they contradict reverse line movement? as it may be able to be used as a filter???

Can you show me one long-term study that shows RLM has been proven to mean anything?

[chizzy]

Can you show me one long-term study that shows RLM has been proven to mean anything?

No. ???

[Welt446+]

There is nothing at all today.

I'm starting to wonder if this system should be started after 30 games rather than 20. If memory serves me correctly, The early plays a year ago were about 50-50.

[barts185]

No. ???

Sorry if my post came across wrong.

I see people talk about RLM all the time, and personally, I think it's meaningless for a number of reasons:

1) You can't really know what the bets are, at all the books, best you get is a subsection of a small number of books.

2) I can't find anyone who can actually show me that they've tracked it for any reasonable period of time and came up with it actually having any significance. Best I've seen is some places which are trying to sell the information claiming it has significance.


Take Care,
Bart

[sneak-a-peak]

There is nothing at all today.

I'm starting to wonder if this system should be started after 30 games rather than 20. If memory serves me correctly, The early plays a year ago were about 50-50.

On 12-19 last year the record was 4-3 (only 7 games) at that time I had only played 5 cuz I happen to miss 2 losses on accident and now so far this year I have already played 18 plays and have more losses mid-way thru December this year than I did ALL of last year.....

[DuncHen22]

On 12-19 last year the record was 4-3 (only 7 games) at that time I had only played 5 cuz I happen to miss 2 losses on accident and now so far this year I have already played 18 plays and have more losses mid-way thru December this year than I did ALL of last year.....

I'm wondering if we are not adhering close enough to the rules. Last night shouldn't have been a play since Johnson hadn't been back for a week yet. I'm sure there are others we played with similar scenarios.

[sneak-a-peak]

The rules are pretty simple and ultimately you have to decide for yourself to play a play or not. This system will lead you to the water- Thats it! No promises after that. I have a 6-12 record this year and for the most part I have liked the sides of games it has produced. Its just in some instances like the Hawks in particular the team has failed to show up that night- Its the NBA, this type of shit happens- I expect it to.

Hopefully we'll get back on track soon.

[barts185]

I'm wondering if we are not adhering close enough to the rules. Last night shouldn't have been a play since Johnson hadn't been back for a week yet. I'm sure there are others we played with similar scenarios.

Mostly, not. Here's the record on all plays which have been discussed, only few were possible passes, and they have done better than the actual plays.

Definite plays 4-11
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.




Possible plays 3-1
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.



Tied record plays 0-1

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss

[sneak-a-peak]

Also about the Hawks- Barts did the right thing and listed it under possible plays so like as previously stated Its up to you after that point.

New Jersey is not very good and I like taking shots against shit teams when I can. The play just fell victim to the Hawks being a Jekyll and Hyde team so far this year.

[dau2ecko5]

12/20/10

no plays due to back to back games for (atl)

[Welt446+]

No plays at all today.

I have a feeling that things went back to normal and we aren't going to have too many plays.

[DuncHen22]

No plays at all today.

I have a feeling that things went back to normal and we aren't going to have too many plays.

Probably a good thing. The fewer the better. Hopefully it'll go back to normal and we'll start actually banking on these plays!

[dau2ecko5]

12/21/10

no plays due to back to back game for mavs

[barts185]

Early look at Wednesday, 12/22/10

CHI, but on B2B and Noah out. How long do we wait with Noah being out for anywhere from 6-10 weeks? He last played on 12/15.

BOS, but DD line.

UTA, but Raja Bell's 4th game back, hasn't been a week. He had a really good game last game.

[sneak-a-peak]

Early look at Wednesday, 12/22/10

CHI, but on B2B and Noah out. How long do we wait with Noah being out for anywhere from 6-10 weeks? He last played on 12/15.

BOS, but DD line.

UTA, but Raja Bell's 4th game back, hasn't been a week. He had a really good game last game.

My personal view is to wait til Chicago comes up as a play again and evaluate the line and how the Bulls have done without him. So I guess it could go either way for me right now.

As far as Utah for me- I dont see any reason to pass on them at the moment. They are playing good right now.

[sharp13]

been lurking for a little bit. this intrigues me, i had a couple questions though:

how confident should one be on these plays? ie how many units should be placed?

also does the higher the number >10 or <-1 mean the play is "stronger"?

[sharp13]

sorry double post

[Welt446+]

Probably a good thing. The fewer the better. Hopefully it'll go back to normal and we'll start actually banking on these plays!

Indeed, I think next year I'm going to have hesitancy about the 20-30 game plays.

[Welt446+]

That Utah line seems insanely low - numerically, it's a play anywhere from -9.5

[Welt446+]

been lurking for a little bit. this intrigues me, i had a couple questions though:

how confident should one be on these plays? ie how many units should be placed?

also does the higher the number >10 or <-1 mean the play is "stronger"?

I'm pretty confident about the system despite the crappy start this year. I put 6% on it which is the most I ever put on anything.

[curious]

I'm pretty confident about the system despite the crappy start this year. I put 6% on it which is the most I ever put on anything.

When do you start this system? I never touch NBA until 25% of the season has been played.

[sneak-a-peak]

When do you start this system? I never touch NBA until 25% of the season has been played.

A team qualifies as a play once they have played 20 games (25%)