70% system 2010-2011

[sneak-a-peak]

Early look at Wednesday, 12/22/10

CHI, but on B2B and Noah out. How long do we wait with Noah being out for anywhere from 6-10 weeks? He last played on 12/15.

BOS, but DD line.

UTA, but Raja Bell's 4th game back, hasn't been a week. He had a really good game last game.

The Boston line has dropped under 10.

Im still going to pass because Rondo is out but would not be surprised if they do still get the cover the way Robinson has played for them.

[smallbluedonkey]

Gah! Missed the Jazz cover by a single point! I also missed Spurs -7 by a single point tonight too (not a system play though).

That hurts.

[sneak-a-peak]

Ya I hate when "Free Throws" cost me a game!

0:04 Deron Williams misses free throw 1 of 2 111-107

[Welt446+]

There's nothing numerically at all for 12/23/10

[smallbluedonkey]

Ya I hate when "Free Throws" cost me a game!

0:04 Deron Williams misses free throw 1 of 2 111-107

Yeah, add that to Jazz's 1-10 3-point shooting.

[chizzy]

There's nothing numerically at all for 12/23/10

ive got the Spurs at 13 points and with them being a 2.5 point underdog, would that not make them a play?

[chizzy]

ive got the Spurs at 13 points and with them being a 2.5 point underdog, would that not make them a play?

never mind. theyre B2B.

[smallbluedonkey]

ive got the Spurs at 13 points and with them being a 2.5 point underdog, would that not make them a play?

Not a system play, but a good bet nonetheless.

Of the possible 10+ plays this season that were eliminated ONLY on the basis of the BTB games filter, the record is 4-2. If you count only underdog plays, its 2-0, with both plays covering by 10+ points.

2nd half of last season, 10+ plays filtered out ONLY by the BTB filter the record is 6-4.

[barts185]

Not a system play, but a good bet nonetheless.

Of the possible 10+ plays this season that were eliminated ONLY on the basis of the BTB games filter, the record is 4-2. If you count only underdog plays, its 2-0, with both plays covering by 10+ points.

2nd half of last season, 10+ plays filtered out ONLY by the BTB filter the record is 6-4.

Great info - thanks.

[barts185]

record update

Definite plays 4-11
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game



Possible plays 3-1
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.



Tied record plays 0-1

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss

[barts185]

Merry Christmas!!!!



No plays on Christmas day.

Boston qualifies, but Rondo still out (4th game). Report is that he's getting closer to a return but won't play Christmas day. Jermaine O'Neal is expected to return.

No line on POR/GSW due to injury questions.


Since BOS qualifies, it brings up the question - do we use the season record for ORL / PHO / WAS? If not, what?

ORL looks like they are starting to play together better, expect them to be a force moving forward.

[DuncHen22]

Merry Christmas!!!!



No plays on Christmas day.

Boston qualifies, but Rondo still out (4th game). Report is that he's getting closer to a return but won't play Christmas day. Jermaine O'Neal is expected to return.

No line on POR/GSW due to injury questions.


Since BOS qualifies, it brings up the question - do we use the season record for ORL / PHO / WAS? If not, what?

ORL looks like they are starting to play together better, expect them to be a force moving forward.

Great question. Personally, I feel like just not playing ORL until I see some consistency. Watch how they play together and check their ATS records. Give it a few more games (a week or two, maybe?).

[dau2ecko5]

For orlando you need to allowed a week since they changed their team. Those motherf made me lose money against celtics.

[barts185]

12/26/10

No plays.

SAS qualifies, but DD line.

For the "part 2", ATL moves from negative to positive, but haven't even been tracking it.

[smallbluedonkey]

Yeah, nothing today.

[smallbluedonkey]

Hornets -3.5 @ Minnesota

{Edit: NOT A SYSTEM PLAY - MIN on BTB**

[barts185]

Hornets -3.5 @ Minnesota

I know you've pointed out that games eliminated only due to B2B have been profitable, but wanted to point out that this is a B2B game for the Hornets.

[barts185]

Looking ahead to 12/28 on games involving teams not playing today, so don't have to consider winning percentages changing:

BOS -4.5 qualifies, injury question time - Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th game out

NYK qualifies as a fade of MIA, which comes in a -1.05 with a line of -10 (NYK +10).
Other places are putting this line out at -9.5, which while it would still make MIA go from positive to negative, would not hit the -1.00 or worse qualifier.

[smallbluedonkey]

I know you've pointed out that games eliminated only due to B2B have been profitable, but wanted to point out that this is a B2B game for the Hornets.

My mistake. I edited the above post.

[smallbluedonkey]

I currently have system (only the 10+ plays) at 6-11 so far this season. Dreadful record so far, but what is interesting is that if you look at first half lines the system plays are 10-7 so far this season. Seems the 2nd halves are what's killing us.

[barts185]

Definite plays 5-12
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.


Possible plays 4-1
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it, just putting a note here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.




Tied record plays 0-1

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss

[barts185]

012/29

Would appreciate if anyone can confirm no plays.

Here's what I came up with:

IND if +3 or better, but on b2b.


BOS, on b2b.


OKC, originally DD line, but at -9, comes to +12.3. Will be 3rd game back for Krstic, who only played 15 minutes on the 27th. Westbook, who left Monday's game with a singer, is expected to play.


NOR, not initially, but with the move to +3 would qualify as a fade of the Lakers.


DEN, on b2b. Anthony out again, Kenyon Martin out, being rested on the back end of a b2b after being back for 4 games.


UTAH qualifies, but Kirilenko is out. Deron Williams is expected to play, but has a sprained right wrist.



So the only one that I think could qualify is NOR, but they didn't at the opening line, and it would be a fade of the Lakers at -1 or worse (just to clarify, the value comes out to -1 or worse, the line would have to be LAL -3 or worse).

[Welt446+]

012/29

Would appreciate if anyone can confirm no plays.

Here's what I came up with:

IND if +3 or better, but on b2b.


BOS, on b2b.


OKC, originally DD line, but at -9, comes to +12.3. Will be 3rd game back for Krstic, who only played 15 minutes on the 27th. Westbook, who left Monday's game with a singer, is expected to play.


NOR, not initially, but with the move to +3 would qualify as a fade of the Lakers.


DEN, on b2b. Anthony out again, Kenyon Martin out, being rested on the back end of a b2b after being back for 4 games.


UTAH qualifies, but Kirilenko is out. Deron Williams is expected to play, but has a sprained right wrist.



So the only one that I think could qualify is NOR, but they didn't at the opening line, and it would be a fade of the Lakers at -1 or worse (just to clarify, the value comes out to -1 or worse, the line would have to be LAL -3 or worse).

Hornets are all I have as well. I don't remember lines that move into being a play being any kind of issue last year.

[Welt446+]

For last year's season, since January of 2010, this is how the fades did:

1/22

Rockets Win

1/25

Pacers Win

2/5

Rockets Win

3-1

Grizzlies Loss

3-21

Blazers Pass

4-6

Thunder Win

[barts185]

For last year's season, since January of 2010, this is how the fades did:

1/22

Rockets Win

1/25

Pacers Win

2/5

Rockets Win

3-1

Grizzlies Loss

3-21

Blazers Pass

4-6

Thunder Win

Thanks.

I thought last year some people wouldn't play at anything other than the opening line, but wasn't sure.

[PatrickBateman]

How would we be doing on the ML? How many faves were straight up losses?

[Welt446+]

The Knicks line is the only one that is out and they qualify at +7.5

[barts185]

DAL qualifies (as a fade of SAS) if Nowitzki plays. He only missed 1 game, and has a pretty long history of playing well while hurt.

He said he the knee was feeling better yesterday, but no decision has been made yet for tonight's game. The Spurs have said that they expect him to play.

[barts185]

record update

Definite plays 5-13
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.



Possible plays 5-1
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.



Tied record plays 0-1

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss

[barts185]

I think they were waiting for me to post before deciding about Dirk

In any event, it's now being said that Nowitzki is not playing tonight.

[barts185]

Early look at games posted so far for 12/31 (NJN/CHI, WAS/IND, GSW/CHA, TOR/HOU, ATL/OKC)

CHI qualifies, but currently line is -10, so eliminated unless line moves down. Noah has been out since 12/18 (6 games), will be out until approximately March. CHI is 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS since he's been out.

Some other games are close (GSW +2 value 0.0, HOU -9 value 0.45, OKC -5 value 0.45), will have to look at overnight moves.

[sneak-a-peak]

Who's going to play the Knicks tonight?

I kinda like the play but its a fade of a team that is completely revamped and new so I'm not too sure on it right now.

Thoughts anyone?

[barts185]

Personally I'm passing.

On 12/24 I posted asking what to do with ORL since you now have a team which is not indicative of the record. ORL took a few games to get things together and now has won/covered 4 in a row. Not sure what to do with them, but personally I'm waiting a while, or would play on them if something came up, not planning on playing against them until they settle down and show that they can be beaten.

This should be everyone's signal to go large on NY - my timing has been less than great lately

But seriously, I'm passing, good luck if you do anything.

[sneak-a-peak]

Ya thanks for your thoughts Barts. I agree- Im going to end up passing too.

[smallbluedonkey]

Yeah. Tread carefully with Orlando.