70% system 2010-2011

[barts185]

I got the same numbers as you for NO and SA, Bart. I haven't seen an ORL line yet, but if it is -7, my number is actually 12.2, since LAC lost earlier today (5-19 record).

I agree. With the loss, the number comes out to 12.2 for ORL.

I had run it with them winning or losing, and it qualified both ways, and then forgot to actually update the number once they played and the 11.75 was just with their record going into today, but 12.2 is correct.

Take Care,
Bart

[ATSFan2010]

Miami B2B,,DD tonight,, are they elgible?????

[barts185]

Miami B2B,,DD tonight,, are they elgible?????

1) Even when the line was 8, they didn't qualify mathwise, so not sure why you think they would be a play.

2) If they did qualify, both double digit (and really if that's the best line you can get for Miami, you need to find other places to play), and back-to-back would each disqualify them.

Good Luck,
Bart

[Welt446+]

I'll give a third confirmation for the Spurs and Hornets.

The Magic does qualify math wise but the injury situation looks ugly.

[smallbluedonkey]

I like all three:

Hornets -1
Spurs -8
Magic -6.5

Magic have no injured starters. Also Clippers are on btb. I know Clippers have pulled off some upsets at home this year, but they have been the exception, no the rule. There are 5-9 at home and in their 9 losses, they have been defeated by 9 points or more 6 times. Last night's defeat to the Grizzlies was only close because the Grizzlies were caught napping in the 1Q.

[chizzy]

been following this lately... thanks for your work guys...whats the story with the lakers tonight? i get them to fit my calculations. not on B2B and with a 7.5 point spreasd they come out at 11.25 points vs the Nets. am i missing something?

[smallbluedonkey]

Nope, LAL line isn't out at most books yet.

Which book has -7.5?

[barts185]

Since CLE was listed as a play, listing them under definite plays, but noting that the lineup had been changing


Definite plays 1-3
12/06 UTA (10+) loss
12/07 DET (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK (10+) win
12/11 CLE (fade HOU at -1 or worse) lose - no injury, but numerous recent lineup changes


Possible plays 3-0
12/08 NOR (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.


Tied record plays 0-1

12/10 HOU (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss

[DuncHen22]

I got NO +1 -108, SA -7.5 -108, ORL -7 -101. All on 5Dimes' reduced lines. BOL, guys!

[DuncHen22]

By the way, I see LAL at -8.5, which gives them 10.24. Is this a play?

[barts185]

By the way, I see LAL at -8.5, which gives them 10.24. Is this a play?

10.00 and above is a play, so yes.

4 plays in 1 day? So much for this not having many plays.

[DuncHen22]

4 plays in 1 day? So much for this not having many plays.

Yeah, that's why I was asking. It seems like way too many so it's making me a bit nervous. Only time will tell, I guess.

[smallbluedonkey]

0-2. Let's hope the last two fall our way.

[smallbluedonkey]

Cash the Spurs!! 1-2 with Orlando pending.

[DuncHen22]

Tomorrow, I see Dallas is -8.5 against the Bucks. Is this for real? I'm not seeing any injuries and I calculated a value of 15.35 for this game. Any reason not to play this?

[smallbluedonkey]

Tomorrow, I see Dallas is -8.5 against the Bucks. Is this for real? I'm not seeing any injuries and I calculated a value of 15.35 for this game. Any reason not to play this?

None that I can see according to the system. I got the same number as you. I think the Bucks are struggling a bit and the Mavs are in decent form. Here's some info for you.

Mavs have won their last 6 games by an average of 8.6 points.
Mavs have won their last 4 home games by an average of 9.5 points.

Bucks have only played two >0.500 teams on the road recently: they lost by 11 points to Denver on 12/1 and by 21 points to Utah on 11/29. The Bucks are also 3-8-1 ATS this season vs. teams with %s above 0.500. The Bucks have only covered the spread twice since 11/11 and the margin by which they covered on those two occasions is 8 (against the flu depleted lineup of Orlando) and 2 points (against the Houston Rockets which was also the Bucks most recent game). In the Rockets game, Andrew Bogut needed to score his second highest points tally of the season (24) and got a season high 22 rebounds and his team only covered by 2 points.

On the other hand these teams played each other twice last season with Dallas winning both times, but only by margins of 2 and 1. In the lead up to those games last season the Bucks had much better ATS records though.

I'm not in love with this play, but I'm happy to be on Mavericks -8.5.

[Welt446+]

I like all three:

Hornets -1
Spurs -8
Magic -6.5

Magic have no injured starters. Also Clippers are on btb. I know Clippers have pulled off some upsets at home this year, but they have been the exception, no the rule. There are 5-9 at home and in their 9 losses, they have been defeated by 9 points or more 6 times. Last night's defeat to the Grizzlies was only close because the Grizzlies were caught napping in the 1Q.

It was Nelson on the Magic that was only back for two games after being out. However, after looking at his stats again, it appeared he was in top form so I hopped on.

[Welt446+]

Chandler has only been back for two games for the Mavs - as for whether he is playing as well as he was before he was injured, it seems debatable.

[barts185]

Chandler has only been back for two games for the Mavs - as for whether he is playing as well as he was before he was injured, it seems debatable.

Chandler was not injured, he had the stomach bug / flu that's going around the league. He missed one game on 12/07. I think he should have stayed out another game, but played (not too well) on 12/09. He looked better (not great) in the game against UTA on 12/11.

In the first game back (12/07), he played 22 minutes, was 1 of 5 for 2 points with 5 rebounds and no blocked shots.
In the second game back (12/09), he played 29 minutes, was 3 of 4 for 6 points, with 9 rebounds and 3 blocked shots.



Good Luck,
Bart

[smallbluedonkey]

Guys, my advice (and experience from the second half of last season) is to not over think injuries. End of story.

[barts185]

Update record of plays

Definite plays 3-5
12/06 UTA (10+) loss
12/07 DET (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK (10+) win
12/11 CLE (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR (10+) loss
12/12 LAL (10+) loss
12/12 SAS (10+) win
12/12 ORL (10+) win



Possible plays 3-0
12/08 NOR (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.


Tied record plays 0-1

12/10 HOU (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss

[smallbluedonkey]

I am almost certain that the >10 plays will fare best in the long run compared to the <-1 fade plays.

Ditching the -1 fade plays and including the three possibles gives a record of 6-3 thus far.

[smallbluedonkey]

Chandler has only been back for two games for the Mavs - as for whether he is playing as well as he was before he was injured, it seems debatable.

The Bucks only do well this season when Bogut dominates. When Bogut has an off night, their back up rebounder seems to have been Drew Gooden and he has been injured for several games and is questionable to even start vs the Mavs.

The Mavs have two strong rebounding options in Tyson Chandler and Dirk Nowitzki who should be able to get the better of Bogut. Chandler got 5 and 9 rebounds in his two games back from injury, but was limited by foul trouble in both games. I think he'll be fine vs. the Bucks.

Bottom line: I like this matchup for the Mavs, but if Bogut has a big night the Bucks might make a cover difficult. On the other hand, Bogut has been hit and miss this season and given his opponents I think a miss is more likely than a hit tonight.

[DuncHen22]

I don't like the line movement on the Mavs game. I got it at -8.5 and then saw it drop to -7.5.

[Welt446+]

I think I'll hop on with the Mavs personally.

Thanks for the insight.

[smallbluedonkey]

I don't like the line movement on the Mavs game. I got it at -8.5 and then saw it drop to -7.5.

Yeah, it sucks when that happens. I think there could be some money coming in on the Bucks due to the fact that last season they only lost by 2 and 1 points in the previous two matchups between these teams. The teams are different this year though. We'll see.

[smallbluedonkey]

Line didn't matter in the end:

Bogut had a good game.
Bucks 9-13 (69.2%) 3-pointers, season average: 5.4 of 17 (31.8%)
Mavs 5-20 (25.0%) 3-pointers, season average: 6.8 of 19 (35.8%)

On to tomorrow.

[PockyStick]

Been playing this system for 3 years. Lots of early losses this year

[DuncHen22]

Been playing this system for 3 years. Lots of early losses this year

We can only hope that means lots of winners late!

I see Atlanta is -4 against Detroit (11.00). Joe Johnson is still out but they've been playing decently without him. Thoughts?

[smallbluedonkey]

I'd count it as a play.

[Welt446+]

It looks like the Hawks are 11-7 with Johnson and 5-2 without him. Atlanta is probably worth our attention.

[barts185]

record update

Definite plays 3-6
12/06 UTA (10+) loss
12/07 DET (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK (10+) win
12/11 CLE (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR (10+) loss
12/12 LAL (10+) loss
12/12 SAS (10+) win
12/12 ORL (10+) win
12/13 DAL (10+) loss



Possible plays 3-0
12/08 NOR (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.


Tied record plays 0-1

12/10 HOU (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss

[barts185]

A couple of other things today, some of which came up last year. I haven't had a chance to research anything into these, not sure if others can contribute anything, and don't apply today due to injuries, but looking for feedback to see if others think this is worth anything:

1) TOR goes from negative to positive. Last year, some felt this was part of a "part 2" of the system, and was worth playing.
Jose Calderon has missed 2 games, this will be his 3rd missed game, so wouldn't qualify anyway, but as I said, am looking to see if anyone has any data on how either negative to positive, or positive to negative situations have done.

2) DEN, line has moved from DEN -1 to DEN +1. At +1, ORL qualifies as a fade, coming in at -1.1
There was some debate last year regarding only using the opening line.
Carmello Anthony missed 2 games, then played 37 minutes against the Knicks on 12/12, scoring 31 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists and a blocked shot. Knee seemed fine, but he missed 2 games, so not sure if DEN is on the "not eligible" list until 12/19.

Good Luck,
Bart

[Welt446+]

It looks like there weren't too many fade picks last year at all - I got annoyed with looking so whatever :P I'll track them personally and mention them here, but I probably wouldn't play them.

[barts185]

record update

Definite plays 3-7
12/06 UTA (10+) loss
12/07 DET (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK (10+) win
12/11 CLE (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR (10+) loss
12/12 LAL (10+) loss
12/12 SAS (10+) win
12/12 ORL (10+) win
12/13 DAL (10+) loss
12/14 ATL (10+) loss


Possible plays 3-0
12/08 NOR (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.


Tied record plays 0-1

12/10 HOU (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss