So far we have Spurs -8.5 and Mavs -7. We'll have to wait for a few lines to determine if there's more.
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I'm confused, are you saying you win 70%+ of your plays? You got any evidence to support this?Comment -
Other potential plays are if Hornets are -9.5 or less against Kings, or Bulls are -1.5 or less against Raptors. Haven't seen the lines yet though, I'm just letting people know what to look for.Comment -
I only tracked it from 23 Jan last year to the end of the reg. season. I have the record at 17-5 over that period. This year, I have it at 5-5 so far, but the injury filter makes exact record keeping difficult.Comment -
Keep the faith guys
Here's some insight:
1. For December 2010, Road teams are 39-64-3 ATS (only a 38% win rate). This is, of course, very unusual and normally we'd expect the record to be approximately 50% or at least within the 45 to 55% range. I have annotated barts185's record to show which picks were home teams and which were road picks. Have a look:
The home team plays (including the 'possibles', which I have included as system plays in my own records) are: 4-2 (66.7%)
The away team plays are: 2-6 (25%)
Clearly this is a weird month for away teams. I have a good feeling things will get back on track with this system once the poor road team ATS % returns to the 50-50 mark. Also, if you keep in mind that I am pretty sure that the positive to negative plays are not that profitable (if at all) then the away team results would be 2-4 (33%).
All in all, its way to early in the season to write off this system, ESPECIALLY given that we've had so many plays on road teams in a month where road teams have been seriously under-performing.Comment -
No Bulls or Hornets today - just Mavs and Spurs.Comment -
Nice insight.
If anything, wonder if the road teams doing poorly was to be expected since they over-performed almost as much in November, especially early on and especially road dogs.
November road teams 125-85-6
December road teams 39-64-3
Total 164-149-9
Road dogs
November road dogs 103-54-6
December road dogs 24-48-3
Early November, road dogs from 11/01/10 to 11/15/10 62-20-1
I had never seen anything like these runs before and think it's going to skew a lot of "dog" systems.Last edited by barts185; 12-15-10, 01:24 PM.Comment -
Lets get a 2-0 day with Mavs and Spurs covering nicely.
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Ouch! Despite both our picks covering the full game spread (and by more than 5 points!) at half time, they both handed over the majority of their sizeable leads to blow the cover by a mere 2 points (DAL) and 7 points (SAS).
Both of those are bad beats on their own, but two on one day (and that's on top of the loss with the Mavs blowing a huge half time lead two days ago as well) is simply really bad luck.
FYI: Home Favourites covering the full game spread by 5 or more points at half time are 2178-445-41 (about 83%) ATS for the full game over the last 15 years, so to have two out of two lose today was bad luck, but to lose 3 in the last 3 times is just BAD, BAD luck!Comment -
of the 12 system plays I have logged this season so far SEVEN of them involve situations where the team has covered the full game spread at half time, but four of these seven were cases where the team lost the second half by a large enough margin to blow the full game cover.
Home teams are 5-1 covering the full game spread by half time (!!), yet their full games ATS record is 2-4!
Remember Home favourites that cover the full game spread by at least a point at half time have historically had a 75% chance of winning ATS for the FULL game, yet we've only hit 2 out of 6! Binomial theorem says there's only about a 4% chance of having that happen.Comment -
I want everyone to please read carefully!!!!
I have tracked this system for 3 years and this is the worst start ever. I believe something is very wrong here. It cant be a course of bad luck due to the fact that the system is actually loosing at a rate to never even come close to 70 percent over the course of the season. Also due to the fact that there are just too many games leads me to believe that the bookies are altering the lines to make "no plays" a play. I'm going to continue posting heere my two cents about the plays but it doesn't look good. Lets all hope that this turns around and we can start cashing in!!!!!because if not help us all god!!!!
BOLComment -
Well at least two of the losses have been caused by the Milwaukee bucks surging in the second half of each of their last two games. That sort of think is just a fluke and no system can account for that happening on a regular basis. Couple that with the terrible run that road teams have been having this month and we have a few more losses. I have the system plays at 5-7, which given the recent away team ATS trends and those two flukey covers by Milwaukee isn't as bad as it could have been. Don't forget that our first pick lost by only half a point .
Trust me, I'm not betting big money on these plays, so I'm happy to keep plugging away. This is a hobby for me and if I lose $100 a month its no big deal.
Anyway, no system plays tomorrow.Comment -
I understand your point....I'm down $1000 because of this stupid recent loses. This system works but it better pull it together.Comment -
Welt got the 70% name from previous threads started here in the past but the correct name is math formula plays or aka christmas system. Nothing hits 70% long term. With that said I still believe its a winning formula.
One of the reasons for a lot of plays so far is we are only a little over 20 games into the season and already there have been like 6 or 7 teams with around 10 game win streaks (7 of the last 8 plays are teams in this category) so winning % of these teams are a little jacked up at the moment.
The bookies really dont have much control of this system because of the nature of the system trying to find good line value on teams with good winning % so the system only kicks out a play when it thinks the line is lower than it should be (Hence bookies hanging a line out there under valued)Comment -
Which of these games are you counting / not counting? I think you said you don't play the fades, but that still wouldn't get to 5-7.
Definite plays 3-9
12/06 UTA (10+) loss
12/07 DET (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK (10+) win
12/11 CLE (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR (10+) loss
12/12 LAL (10+) loss
12/12 SAS (10+) win
12/12 ORL (10+) win
12/13 DAL (10+) loss
12/14 ATL (10+) loss
12/15 SAS (10+) loss
12/15 DAL (10+) loss
Possible plays 3-0
12/08 NOR (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
Tied record plays 0-1
12/10 HOU (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) lossComment -
Yeah two tough beats last night fellas, but I believe things will turn around.Comment -
Man it's tough having 4 straight losses and then having to sit out a day due to lack of any plays. Gotta have patience though.Comment -
I've crossed out the plays I haven't counted. Three of them are "-1 or worse" plays and the DAL line was only very briefly at -9.5 at Pinnacle so I missed that one. I use the overnight lines and when I last checked DAL was -10, so I counted it as a no play.
What's left on the list is 5-7. Assuming that we 'should have' covered 2 of the 3 games where our team had covered the full game spread by half time, a more representative record of the plays to date would be 7-5 and then you can factor in the Utah loss by a half point in the first play (where they were asleep for the first half of the game, but managed to cover 8 points of the -9 full game spread in the second half) and you can make an arguement that the system is close to 8-4.
I should be in politics with that kind of positive spin on some poor results!!
Anyway, the point is that I think we have had an inordinate number of 'bad beats'. In time things will turn around.Comment -
There have been ALOT more plays this year than there have in the past, so if you itching for action after 1 day, you might have issues going forward.
Last year it was common for there to be no plays for days, or sometimes a week would go by.
This year, as (I think) someone else pointed out, there is a lot more plays due to the large difference in records of teams. There doesn't appear to be much parity right now. There are 6 teams below 30% (and more close), 5 teams above 70% with more close to that.
Also, at this time of year, 1 win or loss will change your percentage a lot. I'm hoping to see more parity as time goes by, or think this system could have issues since it will always be picking the good teams to blow out the bad teams. While they might be able to from a skill perspective, part of the issue is the motivation of the good teams to blow out the bad teams. When you can coast to a 5 or 6 point win, what's your motivation to beat the other team by double digits. I know we eliminate double digit lines, but I'm concerned we are going to be seeing more 7 to 9.5 point lines on the games this is selecting.
Good Luck,
BartComment -
I get impatient easily but I know how to control myself so I'm not worried.
I see Dallas -7 is a play against the Suns. They've burned us the last two times so they better cash this time.
EDIT: I meant to also say that I'm only feeling impatient now because of the 4 consecutive losses. I'll bet once a month if I know it's going to hit most of the time, but when I get in a rut all I want to do is get out and as fast as possible. That being said, I still know I should never force plays. Anyway, carry on.Last edited by DuncHen22; 12-17-10, 04:00 AM.Comment -
Yep. Dallas owes us a cover, and hopefully they don't fall asleep in the second half this time.
New York +5 is a play for those following the positive to negative side of the system.Last edited by smallbluedonkey; 12-17-10, 06:24 AM.Comment -
OK AS I HAVE SED I WOULD POST MY TWO CENTS SO HERE THEY ARE:
PLAYS FOR 12/17/10
KNICKS +5
DALLAS -7
These are two plays that I belive are very very strong.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL
REMEMBER BANK ROLL MANEGMENT SO WHAT HAPPENED TO ME DOESN'T HAPPEN TO YOU.Comment -
The Knicks' game comes up at about -3 so it's a strong fade in their favor.Comment -
Finally got a cover with the Mavs! The Knicks one was looking VERY strong at half time, but the Heat blew them away in the 2H.
Tomorrow's only play so far is Spurs -9.5Last edited by smallbluedonkey; 12-18-10, 02:30 AM.Comment -
The Spurs are a play at -9.5Comment -
Anybody end up getting the Spurs at -9.5?
Looks like its 11 at most places now.Comment -
No, but I could have. It looked (based on juice movements at Pinnacle) to me like the line was possibly going to move to -9 so I held off for a couple of hours. When I came back the line had been taken down and then put back up at -11.
I would say that Rudy Gay must have been suspended from the Grizzlies. Probably still good value in the -11, but it is not a system play anymore.Comment -
The system excludes double-digit favourites i.e.: no lines of -10 or worse.Comment
