70% system 2010-2011

[barts185]

Record update:

Definite plays 23-25
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/09 NOR +5 (fade of DEN at -1 or worse) win
01/10 CHI -9.5 (10+) win Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/11 SAS -6 (10+) win
01/12 NOR +4 (fade of ORL at -1 or less) win
01/12 MIA -8 (10+) loss
01/16 LAL -6 (10+) loss
01/17 UTA -4.5 (10+) loss
01/17 CHA +5 (fade of PHI -1 or worse) win
01/19 UTA -6 (10+) loss
01/19 IND +4.5 (fade of GSW -1 or worse) win
01/21 SAS -8.5 (10+) win (possible push at -9)
01/24 SAS -5 (10+) win
01/26 OKC -5 (10+) loss
01/29 SAS -8 (10+) win
01/29 NOR -6 (10+) loss
01/31 DAL -9.5 (10+) win
02/02 CHI -1.5 (10+) win
02/08 SAS -6.5 (10+) win
02/11 SAS -3 (10+) loss
02/12 OKC -4 (10+) loss
02/14 SAS -8 (10+) win
02/15 OKC -9 (10+) win
All Star Break
02/28 CHI -7.5 (10+) win
03/01 LAL -9 (10+) win
03/09 BOS -9 (10+) loss Perkins trade / secondary issues, but not starters.
03/10 MIA +2 (fade of LAL) win
03/13 BOS -8.5 (10+) win






Possible plays 13-7
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) win line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
01/07 BOS -9 (10+) win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.
01/12 DAL +1.5 (10+) loss Both Nowitzki and Chandler have been out for over a week.
01/14 BOS -8.5 (10+) loss lot of injuries, but starting 5 of R. Allen / G. Davis / S. O'Neal / P. Pierce / R. Rondo have been in place since 01/02
01/14 MIL +4.5 (fade of PHI at -1 or worse) win Bogut questionable (played), Gooden 2nd game back, didn't start 1st game back, played 10 minutes. Gooden didn't start, played 22 minutes.
01/17 ATL -9.5 (10+) loss lineup changes / Williams has been out for 7 games, CHI is 5-2
01/22 DAL -4.5 (10+) loss Nowitzki hasn't looked good / Pavlovic has played in 6 games, and started the last 2
01/24 CHI -7.5 (10+) win Boozer second game back, had a double double his first game back.
02/13 BOS +3 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win
03/13 OKC -9.5 (10+) win OKC -9.5 Trade changes, starters have played 6 games
03/19 CLE +15 (fade of LAC) win
03/20 SAC +4.5 (fade of MIN) win Starters are not consistent.
03/27 BOS -8 (10+) Listing this as possible since Rondo wound up actually not playing, even though all reports said that he was playing.





Tied record plays 0-2

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss
03/01 GSW +6 loss

[barts185]

03/28

Only game which qualifies is SAS (after the line move from -4.5 to -3), and they are on back to back and have starter issues.


So, no plays.

Good Luck,
Bart

[yankeerick]

Get another system

[barts185]

Get another system

Thanks for taking time out of your job as a rocket scientist to impart this wonderful information. Is all your advice this helpful?

[barts185]

03/29

No plays.

[BillyGoat]

it looks as though 2 potential plays today both as fades
Hawks at +2.5 (not sure about starters)
Toronto at +4.5 (not sure about starters)

Hornets at (Starter, David West done for the season)
Bulls would be a play but DDline
GS Warriors would be a play as a fade but B2B

[Welt446+]

03/30

The Bulls should be a play today at -9.5 or better (the last line I saw was -9)

The Raptors and Hawks each have starter issues.

[cancan]

good luck on ur pick

[barts185]

03/30

The Bulls should be a play today at -9.5 or better (the last line I saw was -9)

The Raptors and Hawks each have starter issues.

I agree.

Also, to round out the whole card:


GSW (fade of MEM), is on back to back.

NOR (fade of POR) has starter issues.




So, out of 5 possible plays, CHI -9 is the one play today.

Good Luck,
Bart

[barts185]

record update:

Definite plays 24-25
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/09 NOR +5 (fade of DEN at -1 or worse) win
01/10 CHI -9.5 (10+) win Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/11 SAS -6 (10+) win
01/12 NOR +4 (fade of ORL at -1 or less) win
01/12 MIA -8 (10+) loss
01/16 LAL -6 (10+) loss
01/17 UTA -4.5 (10+) loss
01/17 CHA +5 (fade of PHI -1 or worse) win
01/19 UTA -6 (10+) loss
01/19 IND +4.5 (fade of GSW -1 or worse) win
01/21 SAS -8.5 (10+) win (possible push at -9)
01/24 SAS -5 (10+) win
01/26 OKC -5 (10+) loss
01/29 SAS -8 (10+) win
01/29 NOR -6 (10+) loss
01/31 DAL -9.5 (10+) win
02/02 CHI -1.5 (10+) win
02/08 SAS -6.5 (10+) win
02/11 SAS -3 (10+) loss
02/12 OKC -4 (10+) loss
02/14 SAS -8 (10+) win
02/15 OKC -9 (10+) win
All Star Break
02/28 CHI -7.5 (10+) win
03/01 LAL -9 (10+) win
03/09 BOS -9 (10+) loss Perkins trade / secondary issues, but not starters.
03/10 MIA +2 (fade of LAL) win
03/13 BOS -8.5 (10+) win
03/30 CHI -9 (10+) win





Possible plays 13-7
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) win line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
01/07 BOS -9 (10+) win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.
01/12 DAL +1.5 (10+) loss Both Nowitzki and Chandler have been out for over a week.
01/14 BOS -8.5 (10+) loss lot of injuries, but starting 5 of R. Allen / G. Davis / S. O'Neal / P. Pierce / R. Rondo have been in place since 01/02
01/14 MIL +4.5 (fade of PHI at -1 or worse) win Bogut questionable (played), Gooden 2nd game back, didn't start 1st game back, played 10 minutes. Gooden didn't start, played 22 minutes.
01/17 ATL -9.5 (10+) loss lineup changes / Williams has been out for 7 games, CHI is 5-2
01/22 DAL -4.5 (10+) loss Nowitzki hasn't looked good / Pavlovic has played in 6 games, and started the last 2
01/24 CHI -7.5 (10+) win Boozer second game back, had a double double his first game back.
02/13 BOS +3 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win
03/13 OKC -9.5 (10+) win OKC -9.5 Trade changes, starters have played 6 games
03/19 CLE +15 (fade of LAC) win
03/20 SAC +4.5 (fade of MIN) win Starters are not consistent.
03/27 BOS -8 (10+) loss Listing this as possible since Rondo wound up actually not playing, even though all reports said that he was playing.





Tied record plays 0-2

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss
03/01 GSW +6 loss

[barts185]

03/31

DAL (fade of LAL), on back to back without getting into other issues.

Would be interested in seeing any feedback on whether or not DAL would be used with the current starters of

R. Beaubois ▪ T. Chandler ▪ J. Kidd ▪ S. Marion ▪ D. Nowitzki

They've started the last 4 games, and 8 games in all.

So, no plays.

Good Luck,
Bart

[cancan]

Nice work . Good luck today everyone

[cancan]

lot of games today. Good luck

[barts185]

04/01

Despite a full slate of games, and some line movements, the only thing which would even qualify mathwise is SAS, and them barely, at exactly 10.0 at a line of +1 and 10.5 at a line of +1.5

Since they are on back to back, don't have to get into any other issues (starters coming back).


So, no plays.


Good Luck,
Bart

[cancan]

nice job , keep it up.

[barts185]

nice job , keep it up.

Thanks.



04/02

Only game which qualifies mathwise is CHI, and that's a double digit line, so don't have to get into their starter issues.


No plays.

Good Luck,
Bart

[barts185]

04/03


UTA, starter issues


If BOS drops to -9.5 (doubtful), they would qualify mathwise, but have starter issues (Krstic missed last game, doubtful today).



So, no plays.


Good Luck,
Bart

[cancan]

So again no plays for me too. TY

[barts185]

04/05

Nothing even qualifies mathwise.

No plays.

Good Luck,
Bart

[cancan]

Thank you, good work and GL

[cancan]

Good luck today, doing well.

[barts185]

04/06

All possible plays taken out by back to back filters, so I'm not getting into starter issues. This is not really unexpected since there are only 4 teams playing today that are NOT on back to back.


NYK as a fade of PHI, back to back.


NJN at +5.5 or better as a fade of DET, back to back.


SAS, double digit line and back to back.



So, no plays.



Good Luck,
Bart

[barts185]

As I did last season, I'm personally stopping using this at this point.

While there exists some mathematical possibility that the playoff teams could change, it's basically been decided.

Tough to judge motivation in the last week. Who's going to be playing around with lineups, who's already decided that they are on vacation?

Anyway, not anywhere near as good as in prior seasons, but between the definite and the possible plays, actually managed to eek out a small profit.

Final record recap

Definite plays 24-25
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/09 NOR +5 (fade of DEN at -1 or worse) win
01/10 CHI -9.5 (10+) win Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/11 SAS -6 (10+) win
01/12 NOR +4 (fade of ORL at -1 or less) win
01/12 MIA -8 (10+) loss
01/16 LAL -6 (10+) loss
01/17 UTA -4.5 (10+) loss
01/17 CHA +5 (fade of PHI -1 or worse) win
01/19 UTA -6 (10+) loss
01/19 IND +4.5 (fade of GSW -1 or worse) win
01/21 SAS -8.5 (10+) win (possible push at -9)
01/24 SAS -5 (10+) win
01/26 OKC -5 (10+) loss
01/29 SAS -8 (10+) win
01/29 NOR -6 (10+) loss
01/31 DAL -9.5 (10+) win
02/02 CHI -1.5 (10+) win
02/08 SAS -6.5 (10+) win
02/11 SAS -3 (10+) loss
02/12 OKC -4 (10+) loss
02/14 SAS -8 (10+) win
02/15 OKC -9 (10+) win
All Star Break
02/28 CHI -7.5 (10+) win
03/01 LAL -9 (10+) win
03/09 BOS -9 (10+) loss Perkins trade / secondary issues, but not starters.
03/10 MIA +2 (fade of LAL) win
03/13 BOS -8.5 (10+) win
03/30 CHI -9 (10+) win





Possible plays 13-7
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) win line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
01/07 BOS -9 (10+) win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.
01/12 DAL +1.5 (10+) loss Both Nowitzki and Chandler have been out for over a week.
01/14 BOS -8.5 (10+) loss lot of injuries, but starting 5 of R. Allen / G. Davis / S. O'Neal / P. Pierce / R. Rondo have been in place since 01/02
01/14 MIL +4.5 (fade of PHI at -1 or worse) win Bogut questionable (played), Gooden 2nd game back, didn't start 1st game back, played 10 minutes. Gooden didn't start, played 22 minutes.
01/17 ATL -9.5 (10+) loss lineup changes / Williams has been out for 7 games, CHI is 5-2
01/22 DAL -4.5 (10+) loss Nowitzki hasn't looked good / Pavlovic has played in 6 games, and started the last 2
01/24 CHI -7.5 (10+) win Boozer second game back, had a double double his first game back.
02/13 BOS +3 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win
03/13 OKC -9.5 (10+) win OKC -9.5 Trade changes, starters have played 6 games
03/19 CLE +15 (fade of LAC) win
03/20 SAC +4.5 (fade of MIN) win Starters are not consistent.
03/27 BOS -8 (10+) loss Listing this as possible since Rondo wound up actually not playing, even though all reports said that he was playing.





Tied record plays 0-2

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss
03/01 GSW +6 loss


Just to have it together in one place:
Definite plays 24-25
Possible plays 13-7
Combined 37-32

Tied record plays (which, as I think I noted, I don't think should count since there isn't a team with a better record) 0-2

Since the all-star break:
Definite plays: 5-1
Possible plays: 3-1 (this includes the loss where Rondo wound up not playing and BOS lost, 3-0 without that game)
Combined: 8-2


Take Care,
Bart

[cancan]

thank you, see you next season. Bye

[barts185]

thank you, see you next season. Bye

Take Care - hope it works out better next season.

Also, since there were only 2 games today, I looked at them.


UTA qualifies mathwise, but has more starter questions than I even want to think about.

So there wouldn't be any plays.


Hope to see you next season.

[bigugly]

A final thanks to Bart for saving me some time with calculations and injury news. Good luck with your bets until next year's thread.

[barts185]

A final thanks to Bart for saving me some time with calculations and injury news. Good luck with your bets until next year's thread.

Good luck to you as well.

And thanks for the points - I appreciate it.

Take Care,
Bart

[smallbluedonkey]

If you look at the record for January onwards the definite plays went 19-11 (63%). I'd say its worth looking at this system again next year, but not betting it much until January rolls around.

Thanks a heap, Barts, for running this thread this year.

[barts185]

If you look at the record for January onwards the definite plays went 19-11 (63%). I'd say its worth looking at this system again next year, but not betting it much until January rolls around.

Thanks a heap, Barts, for running this thread this year.

Glad to help.

I agree that possibly waiting longer is better. But, I'll also say that, in my humble opinion, this was an unusual NBA season. There was less parity than normal, so I think the system had some issues dealing with that early on.


Take Care,
Bart