70% system 2010-2011

[bigugly]

Where can I see the starter history? Can I assume they have changed their starting lineup recently?

[barts185]

Where can I see the starter history? Can I assume they have changed their starting lineup recently?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/

Is what I use for starter history.

Click on a team name in the standings.

It will show you an injury report (not the best IMO, but use it along with others), roster, and some other things.

There is a drop-down menu that includes

Starting Lineups

Pick that and it will show you the starters for every game for the season, and at the bottom, will show the number of times a particular starting lineup was used.

D. Cousins ▪ S. Dalembert ▪ F. Garcia ▪ M. Thornton ▪ B. Udrih

Has been the starting lineup for the last 3 games, but has only been the starting lineup for 4 games all season. SAC has one of the most erratic list of starters. They have had 26 different starting lineups with the most often one which was used starting all of 8 games.

The 4 players

D. Cousins ▪ T. Evans ▪ J. Thompson ▪ B. Udrih

Seem to be the most common.

[bigugly]

Well maybe the rule should be if there are going to be the same starters for a week then it's a play. Because with injuries you wait for a week for return starters. Since the lineup is always simply changing, a consisten lineup for a week might indicate a play.

What do you think? Line could be up to 4.5 by game time...

[barts185]

Well maybe the rule should be if there are going to be the same starters for a week then it's a play. Because with injuries you wait for a week for return starters. Since the lineup is always simply changing, a consisten lineup for a week might indicate a play.

What do you think? Line could be up to 4.5 by game time...

I -really- have no idea. In my opinion, when there's doubt, I tend to be more cautious, so would err on the side of passing the game rather than forcing a play. But that's me, others may feel differently.

[bigugly]

Personally I think it should count if it gets to 4.5...and I wouldn't consider it forcing. But it might not even get to 4.5.

[bigugly]

4.5 is here. I say it's a play.

[barts185]

4.5 is here. I say it's a play.

Okay. In the records, I'm going to list it as a possible play. They've actually done better than the definite plays this year, although both have done well since the break.

[bigugly]

That's fine. At least with the notes we can take a look at the end of the year and go back and try to make sense of the records and what is working and not working.

[barts185]

Record update

Definite plays 23-25
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/09 NOR +5 (fade of DEN at -1 or worse) win
01/10 CHI -9.5 (10+) win Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/11 SAS -6 (10+) win
01/12 NOR +4 (fade of ORL at -1 or less) win
01/12 MIA -8 (10+) loss
01/16 LAL -6 (10+) loss
01/17 UTA -4.5 (10+) loss
01/17 CHA +5 (fade of PHI -1 or worse) win
01/19 UTA -6 (10+) loss
01/19 IND +4.5 (fade of GSW -1 or worse) win
01/21 SAS -8.5 (10+) win (possible push at -9)
01/24 SAS -5 (10+) win
01/26 OKC -5 (10+) loss
01/29 SAS -8 (10+) win
01/29 NOR -6 (10+) loss
01/31 DAL -9.5 (10+) win
02/02 CHI -1.5 (10+) win
02/08 SAS -6.5 (10+) win
02/11 SAS -3 (10+) loss
02/12 OKC -4 (10+) loss
02/14 SAS -8 (10+) win
02/15 OKC -9 (10+) win
All Star Break
02/28 CHI -7.5 (10+) win
03/01 LAL -9 (10+) win
03/09 BOS -9 (10+) loss Perkins trade / secondary issues, but not starters.
03/10 MIA +2 (fade of LAL) win
03/13 BOS -8.5 (10+) win






Possible plays 13-6
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) win line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
01/07 BOS -9 (10+) win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.
01/12 DAL +1.5 (10+) loss Both Nowitzki and Chandler have been out for over a week.
01/14 BOS -8.5 (10+) loss lot of injuries, but starting 5 of R. Allen / G. Davis / S. O'Neal / P. Pierce / R. Rondo have been in place since 01/02
01/14 MIL +4.5 (fade of PHI at -1 or worse) win Bogut questionable (played), Gooden 2nd game back, didn't start 1st game back, played 10 minutes. Gooden didn't start, played 22 minutes.
01/17 ATL -9.5 (10+) loss lineup changes / Williams has been out for 7 games, CHI is 5-2
01/22 DAL -4.5 (10+) loss Nowitzki hasn't looked good / Pavlovic has played in 6 games, and started the last 2
01/24 CHI -7.5 (10+) win Boozer second game back, had a double double his first game back.
02/13 BOS +3 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win
03/13 OKC -9.5 (10+) win OKC -9.5 Trade changes, starters have played 6 games
03/19 CLE +15 (fade of LAC) win
03/20 SAC +4.5 (fade of MIN) win Starters are not consistent.




Tied record plays 0-2

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss
03/01 GSW +6 loss

[barts185]

03/21


UTA as a fade of MEM, but back to back


CHI, but double digit line


SAS, but double digit line



So, no plays.


Good Luck,
Bart

[cancan]

thank you for advices. Good luck today

[BillyGoat]

It looks like no plays tonight

[barts185]

03/22

No plays.

Good Luck,
Bart

[barts185]

03/23


GSW is close (would qualify as a fade of HOU at +9), but even if they were to qualify, starter issues.

SAS as a fade of DEN, but starter issues.

WAS as a fade of LAC, but back to back

So, no plays.


Good Luck,
Bart

[bigugly]

Good work, bart.

[BillyGoat]

looks like no plays tonight, mavs would be but DDLine.

3/24/

[barts185]

Good work, bart.

Thanks - I also appreciate the points.

[barts185]

03/24

As was already pointed out, DAL, but double digit line. Also, their starting lineup has had some issues.


Also, at +2 or more, UTA,but back to back and starter issues.


Good Luck,
Bart

[cancan]

Good luck with your picks.

[barts185]

03/25

Even with the big board, only 1 qualifies math-wise at the moment (but has other issues), and 1 is close.


SAS. but starter issues.


The only other one which is close is LAL. At -9.5, the math comes in at 9.95. So, at -9 they qualify, but Bynum has been out the last 2 games serving a suspsension. It's not an injury, so not sure if they would be a play if the line drops to -9.


Good Luck,
Bart

[bigugly]

I think it should be a definite or possible play if it hits 9. I'm sure he's still been practicing with the team and he will be well rested.

[barts185]

That's the way I was leaning, thought it was worth asking.

At this point, staying right on 9.5, not sure we'll see the 9, and I'll be out later, but if it becomes available, I'll count it.

[cancan]

Good luck with your picks.

[barts185]

03/26

CHA as a fade of NYK, but back to back and starter issues


LAC as a fade of TOR, but back to back and starter issues


So, no plays.


Good Luck,
Bart

[barts185]

03/27

early report


2 teams on back to back and no line on BOS / MIN



Even if ATL wins, line would have to move down to 5, where ATL would qualify, but be on back to back.

DAL/PHO isn't even close, so win or loss tonight wouldn't change it to a play.



SAS +2, but starter issues.


So as of now, doesn't look like there will be any plays.

The only possibility would be massive line moves, which would likely be caused by injuries, or the BOS/MIN game, where there are injury questions as of now.



Good Luck,
Bart

[barts185]

03/27

At -8, BOS qualifies. Rondo is supposedly playing through the pain.



Good Luck,
Bart

[barts185]

03/27

At -8, BOS qualifies. Rondo is supposedly playing through the pain.



Good Luck,
Bart

03/27

Also, just to be cover all the games

At -5, ATL would qualify mathwise, but is on back to back.

And, as noted yesterday, SAS qualifies, but has starter issues.


Good Luck,
Bart

[Welt446+]

The Celtics record without Shaq is 23-12. If you put in that number for their record, they would indeed qualify at -8 or better.

[barts185]

The Celtics record without Shaq is 23-12. If you put in that number for their record, they would indeed qualify at -8 or better.

I agree. Personally, I don't think Shaq is a plus at this point.

[bigugly]

Should be a definite or possible play then.

[barts185]

Should be a definite or possible play then.

I'm going to list is as a definite. The starters have been

R. Allen ▪ K. Garnett ▪ N. Krstic ▪ P. Pierce ▪ R. Rondo

since Feb. 26th, 15 games.

[pdprodigy]

LOL degenerates! Don't hesitate laying 2 points on Dallas over Phoenix.

[barts185]

Pissed because I thought there was a better chance than normal that Rondo wouldn't play. But he wasn't even listed on the possible injury report in several places, and where he was listed, every place said he was definitely going to play.

This really shouldn't count since the starters didn't play, not sure what to do with it.

[bigugly]

Maybe it belongs in the possible plays at least. Sometimes you can't know in time who will play or not. I think it's part of the system and should be recorded, only because it shows more accurately what a person betting the system would get for results.

[barts185]

Maybe it belongs in the possible plays at least. Sometimes you can't know in time who will play or not. I think it's part of the system and should be recorded, only because it shows more accurately what a person betting the system would get for results.

That seems reasonable.