Bol , I will be following you, lets make some money
Comment
barts185
SBR Wise Guy
12-13-09
815
#458
record update
Definite plays 20-24
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/09 NOR +5 (fade of DEN at -1 or worse) win
01/10 CHI -9.5 (10+) win Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/11 SAS -6 (10+) win
01/12 NOR +4 (fade of ORL at -1 or less) win
01/12 MIA -8 (10+) loss
01/16 LAL -6 (10+) loss
01/17 UTA -4.5 (10+) loss
01/17 CHA +5 (fade of PHI -1 or worse) win
01/19 UTA -6 (10+) loss
01/19 IND +4.5 (fade of GSW -1 or worse) win
01/21 SAS -8.5 (10+) win (possible push at -9)
01/24 SAS -5 (10+) win
01/26 OKC -5 (10+) loss
01/29 SAS -8 (10+) win
01/29 NOR -6 (10+) loss
01/31 DAL -9.5 (10+) win
02/02 CHI -1.5 (10+) win
02/08 SAS -6.5 (10+) win
02/11 SAS -3 (10+) loss
02/12 OKC -4 (10+) loss
02/14 SAS -8 (10+) win
02/15 OKC -9 (10+) win
All Star Break
02/28 CHI -7.5 (10+) win
Possible plays 10-6
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) win line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
01/07 BOS -9 (10+) win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.
01/12 DAL +1.5 (10+) loss Both Nowitzki and Chandler have been out for over a week.
01/14 BOS -8.5 (10+) loss lot of injuries, but starting 5 of R. Allen / G. Davis / S. O'Neal / P. Pierce / R. Rondo have been in place since 01/02
01/14 MIL +4.5 (fade of PHI at -1 or worse) win Bogut questionable (played), Gooden 2nd game back, didn't start 1st game back, played 10 minutes. Gooden didn't start, played 22 minutes.
01/17 ATL -9.5 (10+) loss lineup changes / Williams has been out for 7 games, CHI is 5-2
01/22 DAL -4.5 (10+) loss Nowitzki hasn't looked good / Pavlovic has played in 6 games, and started the last 2
01/24 CHI -7.5 (10+) win Boozer second game back, had a double double his first game back.
02/13 BOS +3 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win
Tied record plays 0-1
12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss
Comment
Welt446+
SBR High Roller
12-04-09
185
#459
03/01/11
Looks like Lakers -9.5 or better and Warriors +4 or better (the second falls into the tied record category)
Comment
barts185
SBR Wise Guy
12-13-09
815
#460
record update
Definite plays 21-24
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/09 NOR +5 (fade of DEN at -1 or worse) win
01/10 CHI -9.5 (10+) win Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/11 SAS -6 (10+) win
01/12 NOR +4 (fade of ORL at -1 or less) win
01/12 MIA -8 (10+) loss
01/16 LAL -6 (10+) loss
01/17 UTA -4.5 (10+) loss
01/17 CHA +5 (fade of PHI -1 or worse) win
01/19 UTA -6 (10+) loss
01/19 IND +4.5 (fade of GSW -1 or worse) win
01/21 SAS -8.5 (10+) win (possible push at -9)
01/24 SAS -5 (10+) win
01/26 OKC -5 (10+) loss
01/29 SAS -8 (10+) win
01/29 NOR -6 (10+) loss
01/31 DAL -9.5 (10+) win
02/02 CHI -1.5 (10+) win
02/08 SAS -6.5 (10+) win
02/11 SAS -3 (10+) loss
02/12 OKC -4 (10+) loss
02/14 SAS -8 (10+) win
02/15 OKC -9 (10+) win
All Star Break
02/28 CHI -7.5 (10+) win
03/01 LAL -9 (10+) win
Possible plays 10-6
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) win line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
01/07 BOS -9 (10+) win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.
01/12 DAL +1.5 (10+) loss Both Nowitzki and Chandler have been out for over a week.
01/14 BOS -8.5 (10+) loss lot of injuries, but starting 5 of R. Allen / G. Davis / S. O'Neal / P. Pierce / R. Rondo have been in place since 01/02
01/14 MIL +4.5 (fade of PHI at -1 or worse) win Bogut questionable (played), Gooden 2nd game back, didn't start 1st game back, played 10 minutes. Gooden didn't start, played 22 minutes.
01/17 ATL -9.5 (10+) loss lineup changes / Williams has been out for 7 games, CHI is 5-2
01/22 DAL -4.5 (10+) loss Nowitzki hasn't looked good / Pavlovic has played in 6 games, and started the last 2
01/24 CHI -7.5 (10+) win Boozer second game back, had a double double his first game back.
02/13 BOS +3 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win
Tied record plays 0-2
12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss
03/01 GSW +6 loss
Comment
barts185
SBR Wise Guy
12-13-09
815
#461
Looks like no plays today.
ATL qualifies math-wise, but Josh Smith is out.
SAS back to back.
Comment
Welt446+
SBR High Roller
12-04-09
185
#462
Thanks on the Josh Smith info
Comment
barts185
SBR Wise Guy
12-13-09
815
#463
Originally posted by Welt446+
Thanks on the Josh Smith info
I was feeling good about passing the game at halftime. Oh, well.
Comment
barts185
SBR Wise Guy
12-13-09
815
#464
03/03
As usual, nothing for Thursday's games.
Comment
jubuck757
SBR Wise Guy
03-03-11
686
#465
You guys need to come up with a new strategy too many losses on definite winssss... Lol miami is defitinet tonight bet big win big is my motto.
Comment
barts185
SBR Wise Guy
12-13-09
815
#466
Originally posted by jubuck757
You guys need to come up with a new strategy too many losses on definite winssss... Lol miami is defitinet tonight bet big win big is my motto.
Thanks for that winner, and your amazing insight.
Comment
barts185
SBR Wise Guy
12-13-09
815
#467
I don't think there are any plays for 03/04. If anyone thinks there is one, please post it.
Comment
barts185
SBR Wise Guy
12-13-09
815
#468
03/05
Denver qualifies math-wise, but are they the same team after the trades? Also Gallinari out.
Some that are close to being fades, but without getting into anything else, the team that is close to qualifying is on back-to-back, so wouldn't be plays even if they qualify math-wise.
Comment
Welt446+
SBR High Roller
12-04-09
185
#469
03/06
Bulls +5 qualifies I believe - however, dogs have not been doing well in the system
I would not count the last Denver team personally - traded starters and whatnot
Comment
barts185
SBR Wise Guy
12-13-09
815
#470
I'm not going to count Denver.
I don't get CHI as a play. With CHI at .700 and MIA at .694 (0.693548387097 if you prefer), and a line of MIA -5, I get the value on CHI to be 2.3
have started the last 4 games, but even 2 of those are questionable today.
DAL is on back to back, so don't have to get into their issues.
So looks like no plays.
Comment
barts185
SBR Wise Guy
12-13-09
815
#477
03/08
Maybe ATL?
Hinrich - 4th game back
Smith - 2nd game back after missing 2.
Trade implications?
ATL would be a fade of the Lakers, the math would make them a play at +4 or better. Open to input on whether or not they should be a play.
Comment
barts185
SBR Wise Guy
12-13-09
815
#478
03/09
I guess this is basically done at this point, doesn't look like anyone is interested.
I can post the math, but most days I won't be able to go into the issues.
Today is a day you needed to check the lines if you are using the spreadsheet.
Possibilities
BOS
CHA - trade / Jackson out for 2 games, I think he's due back tonight
SAS dd line
Comment
Welt446+
SBR High Roller
12-04-09
185
#479
The Celtics have been without Shaq for 26 games and they are 19-6 without him which is almost exactly the same percentage as their season long record. Whether it counts on the system or not, I think it's a good play.
Comment
barts185
SBR Wise Guy
12-13-09
815
#480
Okay, so BOS -9.
I think Shaq has been out long enough to discount him. I was more concerned about them trading Perkins, but he's been injured anyway. Also, a number of secondary players are out or questionable. Arroyo, Rondo's backup, will supposedly be in action in his first game with BOS.
Comment
cancan
SBR High Roller
12-11-10
128
#481
I bet Boston ML -500. F U C ...., boston!
Comment
barts185
SBR Wise Guy
12-13-09
815
#482
record update
Definite plays 21-25
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/09 NOR +5 (fade of DEN at -1 or worse) win
01/10 CHI -9.5 (10+) win Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/11 SAS -6 (10+) win
01/12 NOR +4 (fade of ORL at -1 or less) win
01/12 MIA -8 (10+) loss
01/16 LAL -6 (10+) loss
01/17 UTA -4.5 (10+) loss
01/17 CHA +5 (fade of PHI -1 or worse) win
01/19 UTA -6 (10+) loss
01/19 IND +4.5 (fade of GSW -1 or worse) win
01/21 SAS -8.5 (10+) win (possible push at -9)
01/24 SAS -5 (10+) win
01/26 OKC -5 (10+) loss
01/29 SAS -8 (10+) win
01/29 NOR -6 (10+) loss
01/31 DAL -9.5 (10+) win
02/02 CHI -1.5 (10+) win
02/08 SAS -6.5 (10+) win
02/11 SAS -3 (10+) loss
02/12 OKC -4 (10+) loss
02/14 SAS -8 (10+) win
02/15 OKC -9 (10+) win
All Star Break
02/28 CHI -7.5 (10+) win
03/01 LAL -9 (10+) win
03/09 BOS -9 (10+) loss Perkins trade / secondary issues, but not starters.
Possible plays 10-6
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) win line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
01/07 BOS -9 (10+) win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.
01/12 DAL +1.5 (10+) loss Both Nowitzki and Chandler have been out for over a week.
01/14 BOS -8.5 (10+) loss lot of injuries, but starting 5 of R. Allen / G. Davis / S. O'Neal / P. Pierce / R. Rondo have been in place since 01/02
01/14 MIL +4.5 (fade of PHI at -1 or worse) win Bogut questionable (played), Gooden 2nd game back, didn't start 1st game back, played 10 minutes. Gooden didn't start, played 22 minutes.
01/17 ATL -9.5 (10+) loss lineup changes / Williams has been out for 7 games, CHI is 5-2
01/22 DAL -4.5 (10+) loss Nowitzki hasn't looked good / Pavlovic has played in 6 games, and started the last 2
01/24 CHI -7.5 (10+) win Boozer second game back, had a double double his first game back.
02/13 BOS +3 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win
Tied record plays 0-2
12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss
03/01 GSW +6 loss
Comment
barts185
SBR Wise Guy
12-13-09
815
#483
03/10
Looks like MIA is a play as a fade of the Lakers.
Comment
barts185
SBR Wise Guy
12-13-09
815
#484
record update
Definite plays 22-25
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/09 NOR +5 (fade of DEN at -1 or worse) win
01/10 CHI -9.5 (10+) win Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/11 SAS -6 (10+) win
01/12 NOR +4 (fade of ORL at -1 or less) win
01/12 MIA -8 (10+) loss
01/16 LAL -6 (10+) loss
01/17 UTA -4.5 (10+) loss
01/17 CHA +5 (fade of PHI -1 or worse) win
01/19 UTA -6 (10+) loss
01/19 IND +4.5 (fade of GSW -1 or worse) win
01/21 SAS -8.5 (10+) win (possible push at -9)
01/24 SAS -5 (10+) win
01/26 OKC -5 (10+) loss
01/29 SAS -8 (10+) win
01/29 NOR -6 (10+) loss
01/31 DAL -9.5 (10+) win
02/02 CHI -1.5 (10+) win
02/08 SAS -6.5 (10+) win
02/11 SAS -3 (10+) loss
02/12 OKC -4 (10+) loss
02/14 SAS -8 (10+) win
02/15 OKC -9 (10+) win
All Star Break
02/28 CHI -7.5 (10+) win
03/01 LAL -9 (10+) win
03/09 BOS -9 (10+) loss Perkins trade / secondary issues, but not starters.
03/10 MIA +2 (fade of LAL) win
Possible plays 10-6
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) win line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
01/07 BOS -9 (10+) win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.
01/12 DAL +1.5 (10+) loss Both Nowitzki and Chandler have been out for over a week.
01/14 BOS -8.5 (10+) loss lot of injuries, but starting 5 of R. Allen / G. Davis / S. O'Neal / P. Pierce / R. Rondo have been in place since 01/02
01/14 MIL +4.5 (fade of PHI at -1 or worse) win Bogut questionable (played), Gooden 2nd game back, didn't start 1st game back, played 10 minutes. Gooden didn't start, played 22 minutes.
01/17 ATL -9.5 (10+) loss lineup changes / Williams has been out for 7 games, CHI is 5-2
01/22 DAL -4.5 (10+) loss Nowitzki hasn't looked good / Pavlovic has played in 6 games, and started the last 2
01/24 CHI -7.5 (10+) win Boozer second game back, had a double double his first game back.
02/13 BOS +3 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win
Tied record plays 0-2
12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss
03/01 GSW +6 loss
Comment
barts185
SBR Wise Guy
12-13-09
815
#485
03/11
Possibles:
NJN as a fade of LAC but starter issues
SAS dd line
UTA but starter issues
So, I don't think there are any plays.
Comment
barts185
SBR Wise Guy
12-13-09
815
#486
Thanks Nismo and bigugly
03/12
Only 2 possible plays, both of which get filtered out before I get into any injury issues.
SAS are on back to back
ATL/POR have the same record. Both are on back to back so it doesn't matter.
BOS line has moved down. At -9 or less they become a play. As I've said previously, secondary issues and I don't like what the Perkins trade said in terms of their chances at a title, but it's a play.