70% system 2010-2011

[barts185]

Jazz up to -9.5 is a play

01/28


Along with other starters (Bell, Millsap) who are anywhere from probable to questionable, I'm showing Deron Williams as definitely out for tonight's game.

So, I get no plays for today.

[barts185]

Just an update for 01/28

The only other game I see that's close would be OKC if they dropped to -9.5 or less (currently -10.5 and -10), but Thabo Sefolosha is out for tonight's game.

[barts185]

Making this it's own post since it's important.

If you are getting your standings records off of nba.com, they seem to be a couple of days behind in updating the standings right now. Not sure how long this has been going on, or if it's affecting other stats as well. I noticed it today when I went to check out some percentages.

For example, Atlanta is showing 29-16 instead of 29-17. Boston is showing 34-10 instead of 35-10.

[barts185]

01/29 Early report.


I probably won't be around tomorrow.


A number of teams are playing both tonight and tomorrow.

games where both teams are on back to back, so neither can qualify

IND/CHI
WAS/MEM
TOR/MIN
NJN/MIL


SAS, at the current line of -8.5, qualify as 10+.

NOR at the current line of -6, qualify as 10+.


Game which are close and could be affected by line moves / what happens in games Friday night:

LAC is close to being a play as a fade of CHA, but for LAC, it will only be the 3rd game Gordon misses, he last played 01/22. They have lost and not covered either game he was out.


ATL is close to being a play as a fade of DAL, not sure about injury info.

[Welt446+]

01/29/11

Hornets -6 (-8 or better)

Spurs -8.5 (-9.5 or better)



Jazz was indeed disqualified due to injury

[cancan]

I will be following you, lets make some money

[barts185]

With the line move, ATL would qualify, but Williams likely suspended is probably the reason for the move, and it would be his 3rd game back anyway, so no play on ATL.

I'm out for the day.

Good Luck,
Bart

[barts185]

record update


Definite plays 14-22
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/09 NOR +5 (fade of DEN at -1 or worse) win
01/10 CHI -9.5 (10+) win Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/11 SAS -6 (10+) win
01/12 NOR +4 (fade of ORL at -1 or less) win
01/12 MIA -8 (10+) loss
01/16 LAL -6 (10+) loss
01/17 UTA -4.5 (10+) loss
01/17 CHA +5 (fade of PHI -1 or worse) win
01/19 UTA -6 (10+) loss
01/19 IND +4.5 (fade of GSW -1 or worse) win
01/21 SAS -8.5 (10+) win (possible push at -9)
01/24 SAS -5 (10+) win
01/26 OKC -5 (10+) loss
01/29 SAS -8 (10+) win
01/29 NOR -6 (10+) loss






Possible plays 9-6
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) win line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
01/07 BOS -9 (10+) win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.
01/12 DAL +1.5 (10+) loss Both Nowitzki and Chandler have been out for over a week.
01/14 BOS -8.5 (10+) loss lot of injuries, but starting 5 of R. Allen / G. Davis / S. O'Neal / P. Pierce / R. Rondo have been in place since 01/02
01/14 MIL +4.5 (fade of PHI at -1 or worse) win Bogut questionable (played), Gooden 2nd game back, didn't start 1st game back, played 10 minutes. Gooden didn't start, played 22 minutes.
01/17 ATL -9.5 (10+) loss lineup changes / Williams has been out for 7 games, CHI is 5-2
01/22 DAL -4.5 (10+) loss Nowitzki hasn't looked good / Pavlovic has played in 6 games, and started the last 2
01/24 CHI -7.5 (10+) win Boozer second game back, had a double double his first game back.




Tied record plays 0-1

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss

[barts185]

01/30

I just did it quickly, but doesn't seem like anything is close to qualifying.

[cancan]

nice job , keep it up.

[barts185]

01/31

DAL -9.5

T. Chandler ▪ J. Kidd ▪ D. Nowitzki ▪ S. Pavlovic ▪ D. Stevenson

have been the starting lineup for 6 games now, starting on 01/19.

DAL is 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS in those games.


Would welcome feedback on DAL and if you think it should count.

[cancan]

Good luck, Dallas for me

[Welt446+]

02/01/11

Looks like no plays

[cancan]

Dallas won by 10: tied ATS, but ML $

[barts185]

record update

Definite plays 15-22
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/09 NOR +5 (fade of DEN at -1 or worse) win
01/10 CHI -9.5 (10+) win Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/11 SAS -6 (10+) win
01/12 NOR +4 (fade of ORL at -1 or less) win
01/12 MIA -8 (10+) loss
01/16 LAL -6 (10+) loss
01/17 UTA -4.5 (10+) loss
01/17 CHA +5 (fade of PHI -1 or worse) win
01/19 UTA -6 (10+) loss
01/19 IND +4.5 (fade of GSW -1 or worse) win
01/21 SAS -8.5 (10+) win (possible push at -9)
01/24 SAS -5 (10+) win
01/26 OKC -5 (10+) loss
01/29 SAS -8 (10+) win
01/29 NOR -6 (10+) loss
01/31 DAL -9.5 (10+) win





Possible plays 9-6
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) win line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
01/07 BOS -9 (10+) win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.
01/12 DAL +1.5 (10+) loss Both Nowitzki and Chandler have been out for over a week.
01/14 BOS -8.5 (10+) loss lot of injuries, but starting 5 of R. Allen / G. Davis / S. O'Neal / P. Pierce / R. Rondo have been in place since 01/02
01/14 MIL +4.5 (fade of PHI at -1 or worse) win Bogut questionable (played), Gooden 2nd game back, didn't start 1st game back, played 10 minutes. Gooden didn't start, played 22 minutes.
01/17 ATL -9.5 (10+) loss lineup changes / Williams has been out for 7 games, CHI is 5-2
01/22 DAL -4.5 (10+) loss Nowitzki hasn't looked good / Pavlovic has played in 6 games, and started the last 2
01/24 CHI -7.5 (10+) win Boozer second game back, had a double double his first game back.





Tied record plays 0-1

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss

[barts185]

Dallas won by 10: tied ATS, but ML $

There were 9.5s around throughout the day.

I'm not sure how many sites you use, but if you weren't able to get 9.5 on the game, I would suggest getting into some more places where they don't always have the highest line on the favorite.

Also, at -10, it wouldn't have been a play since there are no dd lines.

[barts185]

02/01/11

Looks like no plays

I agree.


NOR - The line dropped which make it qualify mathwise, but Okafor is out from 1-3 weeks, so no play.


BOS - qualify mathwise, but Shaq's 3rd game back after missing 3. He only played 15 and 13 minutes in the games he's been back.


So no plays.

[BillyGoat]

I see Boston as a play at -6, and NOH a play at -9. Neither is B2B or >10 spread, Okafor is hurt for the Hornets. What is the reason for Boston being a no play? Thanks and good luck.

(edit) Thanks barts185(above) I just needed to be a little patient.

[cancan]

Good luck with your picks.

[greally311]

hey bart, hate to be a pest, but im having trouble opening your spreadsheet from post #256.....i was wondering if you had any ideas on how to open it, thanks

[greally311]

also trying to see why there are such a high number of plays this year disregarding injury questions, it seems that many more plays are falling under, i think previous years if you stuck to the strictest of rules and only played if it was an absolute without a question play the total number of plays were 24, and around 26 the passed two years.....i believe plays are already up into that area and we have a half season left...hmmmm, any ideas just for thought

[barts185]

hey bart, hate to be a pest, but im having trouble opening your spreadsheet from post #256.....i was wondering if you had any ideas on how to open it, thanks

I'm not sure if you're having trouble downloading it, and then can't open it (what version of Excel do you have?) or if you are having trouble downloading it (click on the file name and you should start a download).

[barts185]

also trying to see why there are such a high number of plays this year disregarding injury questions, it seems that many more plays are falling under, i think previous years if you stuck to the strictest of rules and only played if it was an absolute without a question play the total number of plays were 24, and around 26 the passed two years.....i believe plays are already up into that area and we have a half season left...hmmmm, any ideas just for thought

There definitely have been more plays this year. Not sure why.

[barts185]

02/02/11

ATL doesn't actually qualify if you use all the decimal places, and it's a double digit line anyway.


POR on back-to-back so don't have to get into their personnel situation.


At -1.5, CHI would qualify. Line was there overnight, but I didn't run the values until now.

Open for discussion on whether or not CHI -1.5 should count as a play. I think it should. Just because I didn't run the numbers early doesn't mean it isn't a play.

[greally311]

I'm not sure if you're having trouble downloading it, and then can't open it (what version of Excel do you have?) or if you are having trouble downloading it (click on the file name and you should start a download).

i have both 2007 and 2003 versions, but i dont think it has to do with the download.....when i click the document it takes me to a page restriction from sbr forum.....confusing

[barts185]

Okay, here it is again.

[barts185]

record update.

As I had indicated (didn't see any response), I'm counting Chicago as a play since it was a play and I just ran the numbers late.

Definite plays 16-22
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/09 NOR +5 (fade of DEN at -1 or worse) win
01/10 CHI -9.5 (10+) win Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/11 SAS -6 (10+) win
01/12 NOR +4 (fade of ORL at -1 or less) win
01/12 MIA -8 (10+) loss
01/16 LAL -6 (10+) loss
01/17 UTA -4.5 (10+) loss
01/17 CHA +5 (fade of PHI -1 or worse) win
01/19 UTA -6 (10+) loss
01/19 IND +4.5 (fade of GSW -1 or worse) win
01/21 SAS -8.5 (10+) win (possible push at -9)
01/24 SAS -5 (10+) win
01/26 OKC -5 (10+) loss
01/29 SAS -8 (10+) win
01/29 NOR -6 (10+) loss
01/31 DAL -9.5 (10+) win
02/02 CHI -1.5 (10+) win





Possible plays 9-6
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) win line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
01/07 BOS -9 (10+) win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.
01/12 DAL +1.5 (10+) loss Both Nowitzki and Chandler have been out for over a week.
01/14 BOS -8.5 (10+) loss lot of injuries, but starting 5 of R. Allen / G. Davis / S. O'Neal / P. Pierce / R. Rondo have been in place since 01/02
01/14 MIL +4.5 (fade of PHI at -1 or worse) win Bogut questionable (played), Gooden 2nd game back, didn't start 1st game back, played 10 minutes. Gooden didn't start, played 22 minutes.
01/17 ATL -9.5 (10+) loss lineup changes / Williams has been out for 7 games, CHI is 5-2
01/22 DAL -4.5 (10+) loss Nowitzki hasn't looked good / Pavlovic has played in 6 games, and started the last 2
01/24 CHI -7.5 (10+) win Boozer second game back, had a double double his first game back.





Tied record plays 0-1

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss

[barts185]

02/03

MIL comes up as a fade of ORL at -1 or worse, but MIL is on back to back and has injury issues.

No plays.

[barts185]

Not recommending that anyone follow this (or anything for that matter) blindly, but after a really bad start, it is now 7-4 in the last 11 games, 3-1 in the last 4 games, so hoping that it does well going forward.

[Welt446+]

02/04/11

Looks like nothing today

[barts185]

02/04/11

Looks like nothing today

I agree.

Only 2 qualify mathwise.

SAS is on back-to-back

UTA has injury issues.

[barts185]

Early report for 02/05

Games where both teams play on Friday, so no play is possible since both teams are on back-to-back:

DAL/CHA
ATL/WAS
POR/CLE
DEN/MIN
OKC/UTA

games with no lines:

DET/MIL
OKC/UTA

Of the 2 games that are left, the only one which comes out a play would be NOR, with the Value coming out to LAL -3.85 at at line of LAL-3.5

However:

1) This will only be the 3rd game for which Okafor is out.
2) Ariza is now expected to miss a couple of weeks with an ankle sprain.


So as of now, no plays.

[barts185]

02/05/11

To go down the line of games that could qualify.


ATL on back to back.


NOR have injury issues as detailed yesterday.


DET are close to qualifying as a fade of MIL. Would qualify mathwise at +6, but Wallace has only been back for 2 games and has only started 1.
I actually found it amusing when they said there was no rush to put him back in the starting lineup, and then, next game, there he is


DEN on back to back.


So, no plays.

[Welt446+]

02/06/11

Looks like no plays

[cancan]

So no play today?