Originally posted by Cheme82
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Yeah I see that, I was asking more if it would be more "accurate" to enter the Pinnacle lines or the market lines, since the calculator is indifferent to the actual games being played. I can get the market lines, but sometimes a play will look good based on Pinny lines, and sometimes a play will look good based on market lines. Was wondering what to do in that case. I decided to split the difference and only make plays where Pinny and the market agreed, and it played out--I was 11-2-0 today including ncaa picksComment -
Well a lot of people take Pinny, Matchbook, and the Greek and take an average of those to determine the fair market line. I think Pinnacle is good enough.Comment -
thanks for the help again cheme
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No problem bro.Comment -
Interesting idea. Are you using matchbook and pinny to gauge which plays both books agree on?Originally posted by impperComment -
Dang Chili...I went 1-4 last night again in the NBA on the picks we agreed on...Chili did you do NCAAB last night at all?
Again, last night in the NBA I had:
Suns
Wizards
Pistons
Rockets
Bulls
We matched up on these plays again, so I know we are doing it right Chili...Comment -
Hey impper...what plays did you have last night that you went 11-2? Just want to compare to what I had in the NBA as I went 1-4....and are you doing an AVERAGE of lines? Thanks bro...Originally posted by impperComment -
Are you buying points?Originally posted by jolmscheidComment -
i think he did ...but had different plays than u...he had houston and u had the thunders...he didnt have dallas,clippers or knicks....thats what happened..not sure why the differenceComment -
I have no idea how OKC was a play. I plugged in OKC right after cheme posted them, using pinnacle/bodog numbers, and OKC had a negative edge (with buying the 3 points). Some days my plays match up perfectly with cheme's. Other days, I have no clue how he comes up with the plays, when some of them are negative EV plays, according to the calculator (again, I'm using the same parameters that cheme has specified - using pinnacle/bodog lines).Originally posted by incomeraiseComment -
yes i am. it's easy to spot which play is good based on the numbers they're giving, so i look at obviously favored matchups in the calculator first.Originally posted by chilidog
i did get dallas yesterday and bet them.
the reason the plays can diverge so much is that we're getting different lines at different times of the day, and sometimes the book we use can be inefficient or just plain using a bad line, or they are slow to update. I got san antonio -3 yesterday, since the book was offering san antonio at -6. Then later on the line was san antonio -7, which made chicago +10 a +ev play. I ran out of time yesterday but I almost bet chicago +10 in addition to my earlier play of san antonio -3. I would've won both betsComment -
it seems there are two factors that come into play:
1) Does the line offered by pinnacle/market favor one side or the other? For example -5 +101, +5 -110: Then it's usually a good bet on the dog if you can get the same or a better line (assuming you buy the points)
2) Does the line offered by pinnacle/market not favor either side? For example -5 -105, +5 -105: Then whether or not it's a good bet depends on the actual number the spread is at. Cheme did a post detailing the particular numbers that are usually better one way or the other. Buying points at 5, it's usually better for the favorite, whereas buying points at 8 it's usually better for the dog. I think it has something to do with crossing push probabilities. Winning teams win more often by 3, 4, and 5 than they do by 8, 7, and 6; this explains why the favorite is a better play at -5 than -8Comment -
So I guess what's left for me to test is to figure out what time of the day is best to do the math.Comment -
Taking those two things into consideration, the best play you can make is on a line that is favored by pinny on a favorable number for the favorite or dog (whichever you're betting). Most ideal of all is a play you can make getting a better line at your square book than the one pinnacle or the market is offeringComment -
again i'm no expert, i've only had a week of trying this out, but it seems like early in the day is the best time to find line discrepancies, and late in the day is when you get the most "solid" numbers, since pinnacle is sharpest pre-game time and matchbook isn't very good until at least 1.5-2 hours pre-game.Originally posted by chilidogComment -
also, having losing days and losing a good number of bets should be expected. at -170 we have to hit > 63% of our plays to be profitable. i'm still a little fuzzy on my math, but assuming you're finding good favorites you're giving yourself somewhere in the 66-70% range of implied probability to win. There's still a good chance that you whiff on half ofyour plays on any given day.Comment -
All things being equal the closer to game time you make your plays the better because you all but assure beating the closing line since you are using Bodog as well.Originally posted by chilidogComment -
hey cheme maybe you can confirm this. let's say the calculator says that the "fave price" is -188.1 when buying 3 points. does that mean i can divide 188/270 (assuming buying at -170) to get an implied probability?Comment -
You would divide 188.1/288.1 and get 65.29%. Since you are paying -170 which is 170/270 62.96% then you are betting on an event that will happen 65.29% of the time for the price of something that happens 62.96%. That's where the value is.Comment -
ah okay, thanksComment -
Np.Comment -
For tonight, I have:
LA Clippers +11.5 -165 0.86%/0.27%
Orlando -7 -165 2.98%/1.46%
The first percentage is the edge from pinnacle. The second is from matchbook.
Do you guys get the same plays?Comment -
on pinnacle's line i get an edge on phoenix +13 instead of orlando -7
edit: oops sorry, I had ncaa hoops in my calculator. lmao. you're right, the edge is definitely on orlandoComment -
Thursday
11/18/2010
LAC 11.5 -165 8.4
Orlando -7 -165 10
GLComment -
Hey Cheme...I know I asked this before, but if I don't get the same edge as you, should I still bet the same amount of units as you because I have -170 odds? ThanksComment -
Absolutely not. That's why I tried showing how one should use the calculator and figure out one's own plays and units.Comment -
Gotcha...well I'm gonna have to keep tracking this with my plays. I know I'm doin it right as Me and chili got the same plays but I'm 6-12 the past two days and buying 3 points that's not good! Ha...so ill keep on tracking until I'm sure I got it right. It might be because I never have time to wait until minutes before gametime. The best time I can do the calculations is at 3:30 each day...so I guess I will just have to see if that'll be good enoughComment -
Yah, I'm just tracking the CBB plays as well. But I don't think that it'll be a problem doing the calculations at 3:30 your time. I've seen cheme post the plays plenty of time around 2-4pm, so that's fine. Personally, I'm setting 3:30-4pm as my time to do the calculations during the week. For the weekends, I'll stick to doing it 2 hours before each time block. Like, 10am for the noon-1pm games, 1pm for the 3pm games, etc.Comment -
i think the key as well is getting the better number at the place you are betting. if pinny is say -6.5 and your guy is -7 at whatever time then you pull the trigger using the calculations. if you are getting say +10 instead of +9.5 is much better. and you know the line isn't going to -7.5 in all likelihood, just my take on it timing plays.Comment -
I think I asked before but are playing TO WIN your % or RISKING your % edge? Thanks!Comment -
I play to win. I know that the amount can get high if you keep losing, because of buying the 3 points, so you can always play to risk as well. It's really up to you and what you're comfortable with, but you will be leaving money on the table if you play to risk.Comment -
Gotcha thanks Chili....I would like to track this for all sports for about 100 bets or so just to see how well I am doing and if it's RIGHT what I am doing!
Will be back in a few hours to compare with ya ChiliComment -
Originally posted by jolmscheid
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personally I'm up 140% on my bankroll so far using this system. I haven't been keeping great records but I'd probably be up 200-250% if I didn't love to make boneheaded "gut" plays on the nba. I've already had a 5-0, 8-2, 9-1, and 11-2 day and have lost at most ~.5 unit on a given day. I doubt I can keep up this pace but this is amazing so farComment -
Yah, heh, same here. I've had a pretty steady give/take relationship with my local bookie, but for the past several weeks, it's just been take take take. It's funny when he says something about it.
I guess your records are including both nba and cbb?Comment
