Cheme82's NBA plays for November

[chilidog]

I have ...

Boston +6 -165 3.36%
Minnesota +13 -165 2.03%
Phoenix +7 -165 1.7%
Orlando +6.5 -165 0.72%
Sacramento +13.5 -165 0.20%

[Cheme82]

alright, so with about an average of 4% push prob per whole number, going from 1 to 8 would be 4% to push on 1 and hit 8, 28% to hit both, and 4% to hit on 1 and push 8, and 64% to lose one and hit the other. so with equal bet size of $5 at -170 .04 * 2.94 = .12 .04 * 2.94 = .12 .28 * 5.88 = 1.65 .64 * -2.06 = -1.31 = + $.58, or expected return of 11.6% if the line moves one point in your favor and you play the middle. you think this is worth doing every time? because i've got about 5 plays now where my line is better than the current one

Even if you have better available lines right now, you must play the other side before the line moves. So let's say the dog is +5 right now instead of +4 earlier today, if you didn't buy the favorite to -1 and bet it earlier then you can't try for a middle unless you bet both sides right now at -2 and +8 in which case your window for a middle is only 5 points instead of 6.

[sweetjones55]

Good luck on your plays tonight.

[thebestthereis]

personally for the clippers the edge needs to infinitesimal or it is a no play

[chilidog]

The clippers game for me was a no-play, because pinny/matchbook were on opposing sides of the game.

[thebestthereis]

4-0, terrible night again, i am outta here

[chilidog]

Yah, such a horrible night, heh. I went 4-1 on nba

[oh_lol]

NIce on as usual

[impper]

Even if you have better available lines right now, you must play the other side before the line moves. So let's say the dog is +5 right now instead of +4 earlier today, if you didn't buy the favorite to -1 and bet it earlier then you can't try for a middle unless you bet both sides right now at -2 and +8 in which case your window for a middle is only 5 points instead of 6.

yeah i see that much. what i'm saying is if i bought the game at from -4 to -1 early in the day and it moves to +5 on the dog (which is a move in my favor), is it always a play to go for the middle? I'm talking about instances where the line moves in my favor AFTER i place my bet but before gametime

[Cheme82]

yeah i see that much. what i'm saying is if i bought the game at from -4 to -1 early in the day and it moves to +5 on the dog (which is a move in my favor), is it always a play to go for the middle? I'm talking about instances where the line moves in my favor AFTER i place my bet but before gametime

If you go with the push probabilities then you will usually find it profitable to try to middle. The second bet might not always be +EV though, so you might be losing value in trying for the middle so as usual the calculator should be used. In other words, if trying to middle requires a -EV bet be made then just roll with the original bet.

[Cheme82]

Results:
4-0-0 +25.2 units

YTD
87-25-1 +214.4 units (with point buying at -165 for 3 points)
YTD
79-31-3 +191.52 units (regular spreads at -110 for those that can't buy points)

[Cheme82]

I'm taking a little break guys so I won't be around for a while. You guys know the drill by now so good luck on your bets.

[chilidog]

Thanks for all that you've done in showing us this, it's awesome!

[impper]

Thanks for all that you've done in showing us this, it's awesome!

seconding this. thanks a lot cheme

[BrigadierPudding]

Nice work, Cheme. Very impressive.

[jolmscheid]

Have a nice break Cheme...Hey Chili, will you still be posting / playing the RAS plays?

[chilidog]

I've decided not to do the RAS plays any longer, I'm just going to keep doing the calculations for CBB/NBA. It's been going really well lately

[jolmscheid]

Gotcha Chili...and again, you are waiting until a couple hours before gametime usually? I am still gonna track a little longer since I can only usually do my plays at around 3-3:30, which is 4 hours before most games...

[chilidog]

Yah, I've been waiting 2 hours before gametime to do the calculations.

[impper]

as long as you have an advantage on pinnacle the line should move in your favor, barring any unforeseen news. i've been getting .5-1.5 points better than the closers doing my calculations and placing bets around 12 noon and earlier. for plays closer to game time, the actual line matters a lot more since pinnacle will have -105 on most lines. so that's where -4, -5, and +8, +9, etc. look so great on ncaa

[Nookx]

Sad to see you go cheme. Take care man!

[chilidog]

as long as you have an advantage on pinnacle the line should move in your favor, barring any unforeseen news. i've been getting .5-1.5 points better than the closers doing my calculations and placing bets around 12 noon and earlier. for plays closer to game time, the actual line matters a lot more since pinnacle will have -105 on most lines. so that's where -4, -5, and +8, +9, etc. look so great on ncaa

Interesting. Are you doing them for both nba and cbb, and you do them for all the games that are on the board for the entire day around noon?

[impper]

i do it whenever i have time at work, which is usually between 11 am and 2 pm. i'll check pinnacle every 30 minutes and compare it to my book and see if any new plays present themselves throughout the day, as well. interestingly enough, out of all my plays yesterday, the only one that moved against me was idaho.

[chilidog]

So, with doing it that way, looks like there are 20 games today, including NBA and CBB.

[slimpickins]

chili, would be great if you could post your calcs while Cheme is out of town.
It seems you are his best student and have been doing quite well with your similar system.

[incomeraise]

So, with doing it that way, looks like there are 20 games today, including NBA and CBB.

20 games? wow thats a lot...either way good luck to everybody!!

[jolmscheid]

as long as you have an advantage on pinnacle the line should move in your favor, barring any unforeseen news. i've been getting .5-1.5 points better than the closers doing my calculations and placing bets around 12 noon and earlier. for plays closer to game time, the actual line matters a lot more since pinnacle will have -105 on most lines. so that's where -4, -5, and +8, +9, etc. look so great on ncaa

I don't understand what you mean here...."having an advantage on Pinnacle" ....It would be nice for me to lock in my plays early in the day and not have to worry about it, but how exactly do I know if I have an advantage on Pinnacle...the advantage usually only comes when 3 points are purchased for -170 or better...

[chilidog]

For NBA tonight, I have:

Cleveland +7 -165 3.47%
Detroit +12 -165 2.38%
Chicago +11 -165 1.95%

You guys have something similar?

[jolmscheid]

Alright I did these calcs at about 3:45....tonight I have:

Bulls +11
Pistons +12
Cavs +7

Match up with you guys?

[jolmscheid]

HA HA...wow I just posted the same time as you Chili...those are my exact plays

[chilidog]

Let's do this!!

[sweetjones55]

Good luck on your plays tonight.

[GGZOLA]

can someone please send me a thread so i can understand how these games are being found of value, is it? thank you; i dont know what page or which thread to look at...

[chilidog]

Just search for all of cheme's posts. You can click his name and select the 'find all posts by cheme82' option. Just start reading, and ask any questions you have after you've done so. It's a little overwhelming at first to understand, but once it clicks, it's rather easy to do.

[GGZOLA]

yes trying but dont know which thread to look in, or how far back. if someone can pm me details i can give 50 sbr points thank you