Cheme82's NBA plays for November

[chilidog]

Yup, I'd play em straight up.

[GGZOLA]

'nuff said.....ty

[lapi7]

VERY VERY IMPRESSIVE CHILI!
THANKS AGAIN FOR POSTING THE SELECTIONS!!!
Great Work and MUCH APPRECIATION...THANKS...

[chilidog]

VERY VERY IMPRESSIVE CHILI!
THANKS AGAIN FOR POSTING THE SELECTIONS!!!
Great Work and MUCH APPRECIATION...THANKS...

[chilidog]

I don't have any nba plays tonight.

[jolmscheid]

I had the Wizards for +9.5 at 3:30 today....I haven't checked to see if I bet the closer yet though on that one...

[chilidog]

I ran the numbers at about 6pm, and there were no plays that gave me an edge, so oh well.

[incomeraise]

Ok glad to know I wasn't the only one without a play

[pokerwhiz90]

hmmm interesting

[pokerwhiz90]

Alright, so Chili for the Lakers game tonight, the spread is -9 at -103 (favorites) /-107 (PINNACLE)

At -170 lines for 3 pts, playing Lakers -6 the edge is -.17% while the Pacers at +12 is at +.17%
or would i use -110/-110, which is the juice at every other sportsbook

Or in another case Blazers Game -5 at -110/-110 (5 dimes/etc)
Blazers -2 is at -1.54% (-170) while Nets +8 (-170) is +.22%, what do I do next or did I completely bomb this?

[chilidog]

Looks like you did it right, based on those numbers, so the play would be Pacers +12 and Nets +8. I haven't run the numbers myself, so I'm not verifying it, just going by what you said.

[pokerwhiz90]

Thanks chili, so I really didn't ask my question clearly: But would I run the half pt calculator using Pinnacle (-103/-107) or every other sportsbook (-110/-110) because the difference is that the Lakers -6 end up being the favorite!

Also, I've found 5 books offering -170 for 3 points, still can't find the -165, I'm going to give heritage a call.

[pokerwhiz90]

i meant the lakers -6 end up being the edge, with the -110/-110 juice

[pokerwhiz90]

Also if after we get the percentages, like .22%, how many units do you assign? Is there a particular system for assigning units to the degree of the edge you have.

[impper]

.22% is within the margin of error and isnt worth a play unless you just like seeing your bankroll move up and down. it's not +ev, so an extremely minimal play at best. .5% is the bare minimum, imho

[impper]

Thanks chili, so I really didn't ask my question clearly: But would I run the half pt calculator using Pinnacle (-103/-107) or every other sportsbook (-110/-110) because the difference is that the Lakers -6 end up being the favorite!

Also, I've found 5 books offering -170 for 3 points, still can't find the -165, I'm going to give heritage a call.

the point of using pinnacle is that it's a "sharp" book. you use their numbers for the calculator

[pokerwhiz90]

impper; thanks a lot, when are you going to post up your numbers, im going to have to "practice" these calculations so i can do them on my own - also how do the % equate to units?

[naturalwin]

New to this thread. this system is impressive

[chilidog]

impper; thanks a lot, when are you going to post up your numbers, im going to have to "practice" these calculations so i can do them on my own - also how do the % equate to units?

You do whatever you want in relation to the percentage and units. Cheme takes the edge percentage and bets that percentage of his bankroll (re-calculated daily) for that particular sport. That way, it minimizes losses, and maximizes wins.

[chilidog]

New to this thread. this system is impressive

Very impressive

[impper]

impper; thanks a lot, when are you going to post up your numbers, im going to have to "practice" these calculations so i can do them on my own - also how do the % equate to units?

personall i have been doing 1 + (edge * 1.41) to get my # of units played. it has worked well so far, but doing what chili and cheme does, 2 * edge %, should work for you as well. i dont have a ton of time to post my plays and unit sizes so they'll come erratically at best, however i must say that you should work on doing the calculations on your own so you wont need to watch this thread or any other to make your plays

[pokerwhiz90]

exactly, i would love to just be able to do it on my own, but i always run some numbers before putting numbers on a new system

[chilidog]

personall i have been doing 1 + (edge * 1.41) to get my # of units played. it has worked well so far, but doing what chili and cheme does, 2 * edge %, should work for you as well. i dont have a ton of time to post my plays and unit sizes so they'll come erratically at best, however i must say that you should work on doing the calculations on your own so you wont need to watch this thread or any other to make your plays

It's not really 2 times the edge though. It's just that percentage of the bankroll for that particular sport, re-calculated daily. That's how cheme went from betting 1-2 units in NBA, to 8-10 units currently. He's just capped at 10 units, because his local capped his max wagers, because he was killing him, lol.

[chilidog]

exactly, i would love to just be able to do it on my own, but i always run some numbers before putting numbers on a new system

Unfortunately, that won't work out well for you. As you've seen over the past week or so, jolm's, impper's, and my plays are usually different, and we have different results. Sure, the end result is usually the same = we win. But the exact plays and unit amounts will be different for all of us. It's too difficult to get the same information. The plays that I post are from my local's lines, combined with a few other things that I do, and they are my plays when I make them. If you don't get in at the exact lines that I post, then I can't guarantee that you will be profitable.

An example is the Texas A&M game I just posted for CBB. When I posted, my local had it at +1. About 20 minutes later, the lines shifted to A&M -1.5, which would not make it a play on A&M anymore. You really need to learn to do it on your own, and between this thread, and the CBB thread, there's all the info that you need.

[pokerwhiz90]

Yeah understood, got that, guess you just didn't understand what i meant

ill practice this for 1 week, see how it goes, then start with half nickels

[impper]

It's not really 2 times the edge though. It's just that percentage of the bankroll for that particular sport, re-calculated daily. That's how cheme went from betting 1-2 units in NBA, to 8-10 units currently. He's just capped at 10 units, because his local capped his max wagers, because he was killing him, lol.

ah, i see. i'm re-calculating my unit size daily, my bets are now more than 2x what they were in the beginning heh

[pokerwhiz90]

nice! when you have a losing day, do you recalculate again?

[chilidog]

nice! when you have a losing day, do you recalculate again?

Yes, you re-calculate daily. So if you have a losing day, your bets will be lower the next day. If you have a winning day, they will be higher. So you maximize wins, and minimize losses.

[chilidog]

NBA-NY Knicks +5 -165 0.77% - WIN

[chilidog]

Just an FYI, when a play has an edge under 1%, I round it up to 1% when I make my bets.

[jolmscheid]

Hey Chili...what is the LEAST amount of edge you will play?? I know immper said his minimum is .5%...thanks man appreciate it as always...

[chilidog]

I was playing any edge at all, even 0.01%, but after looking through my records, it's a coinflip on those. So I'm going to do the same as impper and make my minimum as 0.5%, but rounding it up to an even 1% to make my bet.

[sweetjones55]

Good luck to everyone today on their plays.

[chilidog]

NBA-LA Clippers +9.5 -165 3.17% - LOSS

[chilidog]

NBA-New Jersey +7.5 -165 3.22%