Cheme82's NBA plays for November

[GGZOLA]

first one to call it gets the points, thx again...to be fair...

[chilidog]

Go through all of his posts. He goes into pretty great detail on exactly how to do everything. It's his idea, so I would assume that you'd want to just read what he has to say about it. Read all of his posts over November - everything is there.

[BrigadierPudding]

Cavs have moved to +5 at Pinny.

[thebestthereis]

yes trying but dont know which thread to look in, or how far back. if someone can pm me details i can give 50 sbr points thank you

you to have to be playing a certain books to make this work really, at least to take full advantage. it is all based on numbers and if they don't add up in your favor it won't work for you in the long run.

[incomeraise]

Alright I did these calcs at about 3:45....tonight I have:

Bulls +11
Pistons +12
Cavs +7

Match up with you guys?

i had dallas -6
and chicago and L.a both give me an edge with a bigger being on chicago so am not so sure
why we r on opposite sides?

[impper]

it's this thread mate i'd appreciate the sbr points though!

[incomeraise]

hey impper, or anybody who can help, what do u guys do when u have edge on both side? like the chicago game? edge bigger on chicago but still some edge On the lakers...and last question how close to the game do u guys use the calculator?

[impper]

just read the thread from start to finish. scroll past the white noise comments

[impper]

hey impper, or anybody who can help, what do u guys do when u have edge on both side? like the chicago game? edge bigger on chicago but still some edge On the lakers...and last question how close to the game do u guys use the calculator?

any time on the same day is pretty good. i like to play earlier because my book offers weaker lines.

i did the math and it is in fact better to bet both lines as long as you have an edge on each side. you limit your losses and give yourself a shot at getting a double payoff if you hit the middle. about 70% of the time though you'll lose ~35% of your wager, but those other times you will gain ~125% so it balances out in your favor

[incomeraise]

thanks for the answer....i ll try it out tomorrow around noon....for some reasons i started today on my own, for the first time, and had dallas and chicago and L.A on the same game, of course people had detroit, so won that one,on the other hand, chicago and L.A both covered it for me

[impper]

yep, today would have been one of those very sweet double hits on both sides with chicago

one thing i didn't account for in my math was whether or not the game will "hover" around the posted line. if it does, there is a much greater than ~24-28% that a game double-hits. even if it's only 2-4% more that's a huge swing in your expected value

[incomeraise]

k what do u exactly mean by "hover"?
yeah chicago is the perfect example of that double hit, but dallas screwed me up a bit, when everybody else had detroit?
so not sure

[impper]

that is, let's say a game has a posted line of -8. How often does -8 hit? Well, from the game history and the push probabilities it hits around 4%... but that's only accounting for all games played. Does a -8 game hit at 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 points more often than it does at 11, 12, 13, 14, 15? what about a -5 game? Where does a game with a spread of 5 tend to land? What about 15? In essence, is the winning margin correlated at all with the actual line that is offered... it would take someone with some nice databases, a lot of their time on their hands, and some math know-how to answer this question with useful numbers and guidelines.

also, of course, there's the issue of the dog straightup winning. in that case your bet on the favorite is sure to lose . . . but that's already taken into account, i believe. i may be overthinking

[incomeraise]

K thanks for tje help...i am going to have to think about that for a little bit lol...but thanks

[raiton]

any plays for tonight?

[sweetjones55]

Good luck on your plays tonight.

[lapi7]

No plays tonight???
Was looking forward to them...

[overthecut]

hi

im tryin to understand ur method

am i correct with Hawks -5 ?

[chilidog]

No, as of right now, it would be Washington +11 -165, with a 3.83% edge, or a 2.68% edge if you have -170 to buy the 3 points.

[overthecut]

thanks chilidog

im gonna try again to understand

im not fluent in englsh so ts a lil bit hard to fully understand ^^

[jolmscheid]

Hey Chili...just making sure...do you even look at trying to find edges on totals at all??? I haven't even really tried looking at those yet...I don't know if there are really any edges with totals as there are with sides?

[chilidog]

I haven't looked at it, but it's a possibility. I don't know about your bankroll, but betting on 30 games ties up a significant portion of my bankroll, so I don't need anymore plays added to the mix yet, heh.

[jolmscheid]

Yea no kidding Chili....for tonight in NBA, I show the Wizards +10.5 as my value play from BetJamaica's lines...

[chilidog]

Yup, I agree on Washington. I have a very slight edge on Sacramento, but only because I get -165 for 3 points.

[lapi7]

Just search for all of cheme's posts. You can click his name and select the 'find all posts by cheme82' option. Just start reading, and ask any questions you have after you've done so. It's a little overwhelming at first to understand, but once it clicks, it's rather easy to do.

Hi chilidog and all...no disrespect intended but what happened to this thread?
I was tailing these plays big time as Cheme was kind enough to post them daily.
Now I fully understand that throughout the thread "the formula" has been intricately drawn out... and that is a tremendous gift from Cheme.

However, even though I have the desire and, I believe, enough cerebral capacity to implement the system I have not, as of yet, had time to fully read, digest and assimilate the system as needed. It's not that I'm lazy...I'm simply extremely busy. The time required to acclimate myself to the multifaceted elements of Cheme's formula I intend to do when time allows.

However, until that time if one or several of you fine gentlemen would be kind enough to continue posting your final results on this thread as Cheme was kind enough to do I would be grateful and I believe that there would be many others who would be as well.

Your added help is well appreciate...thanks in advance.

[chilidog]

Cheme said he was taking a break, so that's why he quit posting his plays. Sure, I can continue to post the results that I get; I just wasn't doing it because this is cheme's thread, and thus, his plays.

[lapi7]

Much thanks Chili...I really appreciate it.
And when I am able to break away long enough to actually digest this fine formula then perhaps I and others can compare our results with yours to make certain that we're on the proper page.
Again Chili...much thanks.
HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO EVERYBODY!

[jolmscheid]

Hey Chili...my value plays I show for the NBA tonight is:

Raptors +13

Bulls +7

Suns -6


What do you got?

[chilidog]

I haven't done NBA yet.

[chilidog]

NBA-Houston +7 -165 0.95% - LOSS
NBA-Orlando -8 -165 1.27% - WIN

[chilidog]

NBA-Philadelphia +14 -165 0.88% - WIN
NBA-Boston -6 -165 1.69% - WIN

[chilidog]

Final for NBA:

NBA-Dallas +7.5 -165 0.96% - WIN
NBA-Chicago +9 -165 2.96% - WIN
NBA-Phoenix -6.5 -165 0.18% - WIN

GL!

[pokerwhiz90]

impressive keep it up!

[chilidog]

impressive keep it up!

I hope so

[GGZOLA]

chili,
Asking as if you were me....if you did not have access to buying 3pts for -165 or -170, would you play the games with straight spreads, even though the calc says edges only on the buys? I know the record is good that way too so far, but like to hear your opinion cause thats exactly the dilemma i am faced with