Cheme82's NBA plays for November

**thebestthereis** · 11-19-10, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by impper

personally I'm up 140% on my bankroll so far using this system. I haven't been keeping great records but I'd probably be up 200-250% if I didn't love to make boneheaded "gut" plays on the nba. I've already had a 5-0, 8-2, 9-1, and 11-2 day and have lost at most ~.5 unit on a given day. I doubt I can keep up this pace but this is amazing so far

the idea is to slowly chip away profit (ie edge you have) not go 11-2, but 11-2 isn't bad either

**impper** · 11-19-10, 12:36 PM

yeah. i actually do really well handicapping totals for the nba as well. I'm 21-7 so far there on the season playing straight @ -110 and ~57% last year on a little north of 250 plays. i've been thinking of giving it a shot in the ncaa but i just don't nkow the teams very well at all.

the problem is i just don't do well on spreads, so this system is like a godsend-- i don't have to consider my goofy judgments when it comes to making plays!

**Cheme82** · 11-19-10, 02:43 PM

Results:
1-1-0 -3.86 units

YTD
74-23-1 +158.4 units (with point buying at -165 for 3 points)
YTD
67-29-2 +137.62 units (regular spreads at -110 for those that can't buy points)

**Cheme82** · 11-19-10, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by impper

yeah. i actually do really well handicapping totals for the nba as well. I'm 21-7 so far there on the season playing straight @ -110 and ~57% last year on a little north of 250 plays. i've been thinking of giving it a shot in the ncaa but i just don't nkow the teams very well at all. the problem is i just don't do well on spreads, so this system is like a godsend-- i don't have to consider my goofy judgments when it comes to making plays!

Post them for all your friends bro, so that we might hammer the shit out of them if we wish. Just make sure you track them with units, that's the only way it should be done.

**jolmscheid** · 11-19-10, 02:48 PM

Dang, I tracked it a few days and saw the potential and I hopped on for the last 3 nights and I have got killed losing $200 with $10 units...so I'm thinkin' I am gonna track all sports for awhile and post what I get here so that Cheme, Impper, Chili, and Best can compare and see what they think...thanks guys!

**chilidog** · 11-19-10, 02:52 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

Dang, I tracked it a few days and saw the potential and I hopped on for the last 3 nights and I have got killed losing $200 with $10 units...so I'm thinkin' I am gonna track all sports for awhile and post what I get here so that Cheme, Impper, Chili, and Best can compare and see what they think...thanks guys!

Good idea. It's been a little tough not to make the bets in CBB, but I'm still sticking to just tracking. The past 2 nights have been profitable on tracking, but still not going to bet. I'll post my plays as I finalize them.

**jolmscheid** · 11-19-10, 03:38 PM

Sounds good Chili...I posted what I found so far today on the CBB forum...

For tonight I found only 1 small edge play for NBA...

Bulls +8 .25% Matchy / .25% Pinny....

Anyone else see that edge?

**impper** · 11-19-10, 03:50 PM

Originally posted by Cheme82

Post them for all your friends bro, so that we might hammer the shit out of them if we wish. Just make sure you track them with units, that's the only way it should be done.

I got spurs/jazz O 203 3 units for today. Spurs have blasted away the over every time I've bet them this year. Both teams run and gun and score in bunches. the books are catching on a little that the spurs have got efficiency and pace so this is a little higher than i'd like, but i'm still comfortable here.

**Cheme82** · 11-19-10, 04:04 PM

Friday
11/19/2010

Boston -5.5 -165 2
Philly 7 -165 2
Cleveland 12 -165 4
Chicago 8 -165 2.8

GL

**jolmscheid** · 11-19-10, 04:09 PM

Well I know I gotta be doin it right cuz I got the Cavs and Bulls just like you Cheme! But my edge is less than 1% on both cuz my -170 odds....thanks Cheme

**Cheme82** · 11-20-10, 01:20 AM

Results:
3-1-0 +5.5 units

YTD
77-24-1 +163.9 units (with point buying at -165 for 3 points)
YTD
70-30-2 +144.22 units (regular spreads at -110 for those that can't buy points)

**chilidog** · 11-20-10, 01:28 AM

**Hayhay** · 11-20-10, 06:04 PM

no bet today ?

**Cheme82** · 11-20-10, 07:03 PM

Saturday
11/20/2010

Indiana 8.5 -165 7.7
Dallas 6 -165 6
Memphis 9 -165 6.8
Mil -2 -135 10
NJ 13.5 -165 2.6

GL

**incomeraise** · 11-20-10, 07:14 PM

why is the menphis miami game off board already?

**incomeraise** · 11-20-10, 07:20 PM

its fine i guess its because they were adjusting the lines due to d wade not playing or so

**draco21** · 11-21-10, 04:05 AM

Hi Cheme! 4-1 yesterday! congrats! Lets get em tomorrow again!

**Cheme82** · 11-21-10, 01:45 PM

Results:
4-1-0 +9.6 units

YTD
81-25-1 +173.5 units (with point buying at -165 for 3 points)
YTD
74-31-2 +156.32 units (regular spreads at -110 for those that can't buy points)

**Cheme82** · 11-21-10, 04:13 PM

Sunday
11/21/2010

Sacramento 8 -165 10
Washington 8 -165 5.7

GL

**impper** · 11-21-10, 05:14 PM

hey chem do you ever take the moneyline when pinny is giving a -3 team a big advantage?

**incomeraise** · 11-21-10, 09:01 PM

great day once again

**chilidog** · 11-21-10, 11:57 PM

yup, i went 2-1 on my nba plays, gaining +4.1 units

**impper** · 11-22-10, 01:40 AM

man i was +8 units on the day and then i decided at the last moment to check the #s on the golden state game and they looked good for gs... well you know how that turned out haha.

**chilidog** · 11-22-10, 08:13 AM

yup, i know

**impper** · 11-22-10, 12:02 PM

i think that's a good topic for discussion. looking at my own analysis of the game, i thought there was almost no way golden state stays in it. however, the line moved in my direction and the numbers bore me out, so i went on golden state anyway. how much should we trust the math if our "gut" is screaming no? maybe there are times to make exceptions, though i can imagine this will lead us astray just as often as it bears us out

**chilidog** · 11-22-10, 12:12 PM

Well, yesterday I took Toronto plus the points against Boston. My gut screamed no, and Toronto not only covered the points, but beat Boston straight up. I think that it's working awesome the way it is - just listening to the math.

To me, the lines themselves already reflect everything that we need to know, like if there are injuries or whatever stats go into setting lines. The math has been very good to me in NBA, and it's looking like it's going to be just as good as CBB. I'm starting today betting the CBB again, after 5 days of just tracking them.

**Cheme82** · 11-22-10, 02:49 PM

Results:
2-0-0 +15.7 units

YTD
83-25-1 +189.2 units (with point buying at -165 for 3 points)
YTD
75-31-3 +166.32 units (regular spreads at -110 for those that can't buy points)

**Cheme82** · 11-22-10, 02:51 PM

Originally posted by impper

hey chem do you ever take the moneyline when pinny is giving a -3 team a big advantage?

Nope, if I don't move up to +6 I pass on the game.

**impper** · 11-22-10, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by chilidog

Well, yesterday I took Toronto plus the points against Boston. My gut screamed no, and Toronto not only covered the points, but beat Boston straight up. I think that it's working awesome the way it is - just listening to the math.

To me, the lines themselves already reflect everything that we need to know, like if there are injuries or whatever stats go into setting lines. The math has been very good to me in NBA, and it's looking like it's going to be just as good as CBB. I'm starting today betting the CBB again, after 5 days of just tracking them.

yeah i think you're right here, although my gut told me that toronto had a chance at home in yesterday's game

how about this then: if the math bears us out, should we always make the bet? here's an example: early in the day a team is -4. You get a 2% edge by buying them down to -1. Later on the line moves to +5 for the dog and the math gives you a 2% edge with the dog at +8. do we buy it in that case? i had a case like this where i bought the dog later onw ithout realizing it, and amazingly the game middled and i won both bets. is going both ways a good play if the line moves big in your favor?

e: a further question on this: is your chance to win the middle simply the added up push probabilities of the numbers in between 1 and 8? j/w

**Cheme82** · 11-22-10, 03:03 PM

Once you made the play on the favorite buying them to -1, after the line move or even if only the juice moves, the other side could also be profitable. The push probabilities give you the % of times you hit both sides, and the % of times you hit one and push the other.

**impper** · 11-22-10, 03:17 PM

alright, so with about an average of 4% push prob per whole number, going from 1 to 8 would be 4% to push on 1 and hit 8, 28% to hit both, and 4% to hit on 1 and push 8, and 64% to lose one and hit the other.

so with equal bet size of $5 at -170

.04 * 2.94 = .12
.04 * 2.94 = .12
.28 * 5.88 = 1.65
.64 * -2.06 = -1.31

= + $.58, or expected return of 11.6% if the line moves one point in your favor and you play the middle. you think this is worth doing every time? because i've got about 5 plays now where my line is better than the current one

**slimpickins** · 11-22-10, 05:34 PM

any plays tonight?

**chilidog** · 11-22-10, 05:54 PM

Sure, several plays tonight, but you really should be using the calculator to find your own edges, and play those, because you might not be getting the same lines as cheme does, so your overall profit might not be as good.

**incomeraise** · 11-22-10, 06:31 PM

i might be doing something wrong : like on the phonex game i get an edge on both side...plus
new orleand, only plays fpor today/ what u guys got?

**Cheme82** · 11-22-10, 06:35 PM

Monday
11/22/10

Indiana +12.5 -165 4.6
OKC -6 -165 4.9
Phoenix +8 -165 5.7
LAC +9 -165 10

GL