Cheme82's NBA plays for November

[chilidog]

Thanks Chili....so I should wait til longer before gametime to get the most accuarate lines I can...sweet...I will just look for a book that gives me 3 points for -170

Yah, wait a few hours before game time. I'd say 1 hour before is optimal, but like today, when there's a ton of college basketball games going on, it'll take you time to do all the calculations (or I suppose you could wait for cheme to post them as well), but I'd still shoot for 2-3 hours before game time.

I feel bad for all of the smaller books and bookies, this system is taking advantage of them and is not fair.

Haha, so become a book? I don't feel bad at all for making bets that give me a clear statistical edge. They're in business to take our money. We're trying to take their money. Nothing wrong with that at all.

HA HA...very funny Slim...so I also understand that the unit size is based on the edge we have on a play...let's say our edge is 0.5%...do we still play it?

Yup, you play your edge regardless. If your bankroll is smaller, and 0.5% makes the bet under the minimum wager, then bet the minimum wager. Even with 'just' a 0.5% edge, that's equal to paying 99.5 cents for $1. It's not alot, but it's still an edge. Now imagine that your bankroll was larger, and you bet to win $1000 on that 0.5% edge. You're paying $995 for $1,000. Of course you'd make the bet. If you have an edge, you take it.

The problem isn't find the books, the problem is the 3 point buy for -170 or less.

Yup, true. I'm just glad there's plenty of local bookies in CR for us gringos.

[jolmscheid]

Ha...thanks Chili..

[thebestthereis]

Bet JM chopped me last year and adjusted my juice on the 3 point buy.

[jolmscheid]

Serious??? Dang...well maybe I will get BetJam and Brobury or something to spread it out.

[chilidog]

Yah, I think that that's the best option; to try to find enough books that give you -170 on the 3pt buy, and spread your action out amongst them, so that you're not hammering the hell out of one specific book.

[incomeraise]

Bet JM chopped me last year and adjusted my juice on the 3 point buy.

how big were u playing there?
also what was the limit ?
are they pretty good with payout?
am ready to make money lets goooo

[thebestthereis]

yes i wasn't going nuts just winning a lot. mixing in plays and system stuff with some jm series and some of my own. it wasn't like i won 50K, but they saw i was winning so the adjusted the juice. i just ended up not buying points anymore.

[thebestthereis]

no CP's from my local or buying points other than on the full games

[chilidog]

no CP's from my local or buying points other than on the full games

Yah, I can't buy points on anything but the full game, either. I always login and check every morning to see if I can still buy 3 points in basketball for -165, and cross my fingers until I verify it, heh.

[incomeraise]

yes i wasn't going nuts just winning a lot. mixing in plays and system stuff with some jm series and some of my own. it wasn't like i won 50K, but they saw i was winning so the adjusted the juice. i just ended up not buying points anymore.

asking because i am about to deposiot some money over there..and maybe play to win 80 for the biggest play with buying 3 points...so was wondering if that would make them cut myplays thats why..

[slimpickins]

don't think playing to win 80 bucks is ever going to cause any red flags, unless you go 100-0 or something

[incomeraise]

great....lol am not a 200 bettor yet...getting my bankroll to grow first hahah

[chilidog]

Heh, the books won't even look at you over an $80 bet.

[incomeraise]

lol, u guys are making me feel bad...lol but u know that money adds up, and let me make myself feel better lol, its actually to win 80 at-170 so its like a 130-140 dollar bet haha for mthe biggest bet lol

[thebestthereis]

bet jm is a good place to have so i would still do it

[chilidog]

Ah, I'm not trying to do that, bro. I'm just saying that you have nothing to worry about, at least not at $80 bets. Back when I was doing the JM NBA system last year, I got up to a $2000 bet one time, and it won, and still I heard nothing from the book. I think they're more concerned with $500+ bettors than -$100 bettors.

[slimpickins]

inc: $80 is still a good sized bet and if you win at a high percentage can mean real cash in the long run.

Books look closely when someone hits bets $2000 plus on a single game I would say, you hit a bunch of those and they may start to impose limits.
The $80 flat bettor has nothng to worry about.
most online bettors are not plugging away betting $80 each night, they fire off large chunks of their bankroll on 1 game and they lose more than they win.

[incomeraise]

yeah u right...am sure they wont pay attention to a 80 flat bettor...which am not even going to be, thatwould be the biggest play 8units i guess if i read the thread correctly...so am starting today thanks for everything!!

[chilidog]

GL!

[Cheme82]

Thanks, we'll give it a look. Also, I'll track the record here for playing the picks straight up with the -110 spread starting now, November 11. I'll use the line that Cheme starts with. 2-1 straight up.

Thanks for offering to track the plays at -110 and without buying points. I backtracked and you can start with:
48-16-1 +119.43

This record includes yesterday's 2-1 night. If you are going to track can you please also keep track of the units? A record is meaningless without units imo.

Thanks bro.

[Cheme82]

I'm going to start tailing so expect these plays to stop hitting guys.

If we start losing we will track you down!

[Cheme82]

I just did the math, from when Cheme started posting this awesome system of his, and with all 5 sports, here's his grand record for 2010 YTD: 1190 wins - 1098 losses - 43 pushes +593.02 units It's already proven itself, because it's clearly broken the 2,000 game benchmark. Just amazing

Thanks for that bro but you should take MLB out of that record because I didn't use the same approach for MLB. NFL, CFB, NBA, and CBB are all fair game though.

[Cheme82]

yeah u right...am sure they wont pay attention to a 80 flat bettor...which am not even going to be, thatwould be the biggest play 8units i guess if i read the thread correctly...so am starting today thanks for everything!!

The biggest play is 5% of your bankroll if you find a play with enough edge to pull the trigger like that. The bankroll right now is at 230.55 units (100 starting bankroll + 130.55 units of profit so far) so a max play for me right now would be about 11.6 units but my local has me maxed out at dime bets so I can only play 10 units max. So what I did so that I don't under-bet any plays is that I'm betting 2 units per % of edge, so a play with 1.25% edge gets played for 2.5 units and a play with 4% edge gets played for 8 units.

[Cheme82]

Friday
11/12/2010
Orlando -11 -165 3
Dallas -6 -165 2.6
Sacramento 10.5 -165 2.8

GL

[jolmscheid]

Hey Cheme...I think I'm in on these now at BetJam and Brobury baby! I asked Chili but how exactly should I be looking for these edges? Are there certain lines that tip you off that it will be profitable...or do you still enter them all in???

[Cheme82]

With NBA I enter them all because there isn't that many games and Bodog usually is off on 1 or 2 games. For CBB the games are so many that I have a little cheat sheet:

Games with spreads of : 1,2,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 and the halves in between usually offer value buying points for the dog.
Games with spreads of : 4,5,6,11,12,13,14,15,16 and the halves in between usually offer value buting points for the favorite.

Notice 6,11, and 12 are bisexual because they can go both ways. The juice is obviously important so it has to be entered. Spreads of over 20 I don't even worry about unless Bodog has a full point off and sometimes even that is not enough (see Illinois-Chicago yesterday).

For NFL crossing the 7 usually offers value and crossing the 3 offers great value. In CFB those numbers are also important but not as much as in NFL.

Hope that helps.

[thebestthereis]

no line at bodog for the maverick game?

[Cheme82]

I made all my plays for today already, have to go to work so I'll catch you guys tonight. Huge card in CBB and that's my new baby so I want it to do well lol.

Good luck on your action guys.

[jolmscheid]

That helps out a lot Cheme!!!! And so basically look at those spreads, and also if the total / side is off by a point or so....that sounds good...how come you rarely post totals? Is there no edge there??

[thebestthereis]

no edge in buying points in totals in hoops

[jolmscheid]

Any edge in totals in any sports? Or do we just stick with sides for this system...thanks

[chilidog]

There are edges in the games, but not as many. Just plug away into the calculator. You'll start learning just by looking at the lines, which games you need to plug into the calculator. My book doesn't let me buy points on totals, but I still get the standard -105 line on totals, so if I can beat the pinny closer, usually I'm good.

[jolmscheid]

Thanks Chili...yea I wish I was good at seeing which sides would be good or not, cuz it just takes a ton of time but oh well...gotta put in the work right??? I am basically gonna do what you said...if my line is -105, then I'm gonna look at Pinny's line to see if their's is at -107 or worse and also will look for differences by a half point etc....

But I know that Cheme said sometimes getting the 3 points for -165 will CREATE the edge, so maybe we still have to enter them all in huh??

Finally, how do you compare the 1st half lines to Pinny?? SBR odds doesn't show 1st half lines...

[chilidog]

Yah it does. Up top, where you sell at the sportsbooks, there's a box to the left of it where you can just adjust settings and stuff. At the top of that box are a bunch of little circles, shaded different ways. That's how you select full game, quarters, and halves.

And yah, very often buying the 3 points creates the edge, but you won't find an edge if the pinny line is -105 or -106 on both sides, and yo're getting -105. So yah, I find games with either a 1/2 point difference or a -107 or worse line, and I plug those into the calculator.

As for totals, just look and see if pinnacle has a higher difference price than what you're getting, and plug that into the calc. I can't buy points on totals, so I just stick to the default setting,a nd you'll see the edge that you're getting.

[thebestthereis]

you don't have to enter them all in, just look in the box and if you don't see >165 it doesn't matter (when buying 3 points). example if you see a 3 point buy going down from -7 (your line from pinny) to -4 and the juice is -183 let's say that is a go because your odds are -170, giving you an edge of X%, the difference of -183 and -170. in cheme's case -165.