Cheme82's NBA plays for November

[chilidog]

So Cheme...or anyone else...basically your edge is created by the buying of points, so if I can't do that, do you think it's still worth it to follow the plays at the best odds I can get long term? Thanks guys

It's possible, but who knows in the long-term. The plays are hitting pretty strongly without buying points, but that could also just be coincidence. Why can't you buy points? True, buying 3 points for -165 will be hard to find at a big book, but you can still buy 3 points for -170 at several books. It'll cut into your profit just a tiny bit, but you should still make a killing.

Just to spread things out a bit, heh, I found another local that I'm going to setup an account with, so that I don't hammer my existing local too hard.

[jolmscheid]

Yea thanks Chili...problem is I can't find a book to get -170 lines!!!!

[thefonzo]

I'm glad that I got it figured out finally. I came up with the picks as him for both NBA and CFB, so that made me feel better that it's all clicked. Heh, I was so excited last night, figuring this all out, that I couldn't get to sleep for a few hours. What a rush that was.

I just need to figure out a book to use. I'm guessing either 5Dimes because of the reduced juice, or Greek because you can buy three points easily.

[jolmscheid]

Fonzo...I have 5 Dimes but it is -200 to buy 3 points....

[thefonzo]

Fonzo...I have 5 Dimes but it is -200 to buy 3 points....

OOhhh, that's not what we're looking for, is it...

I'll check out Greek in a bit when I get home and see what's up there. Diamond only let's you buy 2 points for -150, which might allow for a few plays here and there.

I also notice on tonight's alternative lines that Miami -2.5 at -220 would have been +EV about 3%. Didn't play it because Cheme said as you get beyond 3 points there is more room for error.

[thefonzo]

I'm also curious to see if Cheme's plays jive with what the line readers play. For example, Lakerboy makes plays based on reading the lines better than anybody I know. It'd be cool to see if he were on Miami, Chicago, or Denver tonight.

[jolmscheid]

True fonzo...yea if we could find a legit book that gives out 3 points for -170, that'd be awesome

[thefonzo]

True fonzo...yea if we could find a legit book that gives out 3 points for -170, that'd be awesome

Well it's not Greek. 3 points costs -220!!

Best option might be to look for 2 point buys that are +EV and use 5dimes

[Cheme82]

If you can't get the 3-points then it's probably better to give it a shot and play them with regular spreads. I backtracked my plays so far and posted the record with regular spreads and -110 juice. You guys can take it from there and update is as the plays come in. Be nice and post it here so other people can see it.

[Cheme82]

Results:
2-1-0 +2.76 units

YTD
52-13-0 +130.55 units

[thebestthereis]

Fonzo...I have 5 Dimes but it is -200 to buy 3 points....

try sportsbook.com when i used them the juice was -170. also if that is still the case it is square book so you will be getting the line you need to get the edge on the buy. example: pinny -4 they will be -5 and then on the buy you will be at +8. hope that helps.

[thefonzo]

try sportsbook.com when i used them the juice was -170. also if that is still the case it is square book so you will be getting the line you need to get the edge on the buy. example: pinny -4 they will be -5 and then on the buy you will be at +8. hope that helps.

Thanks, we'll give it a look.

Also, I'll track the record here for playing the picks straight up with the -110 spread starting now, November 11. I'll use the line that Cheme starts with.

2-1 straight up.

[jolmscheid]

Thanks guys...is Sportsbook.com a legit and reputable book? I also think that Bookmaker you can buy 2 points for -150....you think that would give us some value Cheme??

[thebestthereis]

sportsbook.com has always paid me, i hear positive and negative things but i have never had an issue. square books charge -170 or so because their customers don't know how to use the advantage. that is why the others (greek, etc) don't offer it or charge to much for it. go to vegas and they don't even offer it. i think i found one that offered 1 point buy

[incomeraise]

try sportsbook.com when i used them the juice was -170. also if that is still the case it is square book so you will be getting the line you need to get the edge on the buy. example: pinny -4 they will be -5 and then on the buy you will be at +8. hope that helps.

so with them u almost never buy points for the favorites then?
in ur example, if u tried to buy points for the favorite they would be -2 instead of -1 with pinny?

[thebestthereis]

it was an example, just to show you how you get an extra point using the square line vs the sharper line on top of the buy. sometime you would be on the favorite, which creates the greater edge. it depends on the edge which way you go.

[jolmscheid]

Thanks best...yea I think I might try Bet Jam or BetUSA or Brobury...I hear they offer 3 points for -170....possibly Bookmaker...they do 2 points for -150, but I don't know if that would give an edge or not?

[chilidog]

Thanks best...yea I think I might try Bet Jam or BetUSA or Brobury...I hear they offer 3 points for -170....possibly Bookmaker...they do 2 points for -150, but I don't know if that would give an edge or not?

The calculator will tell you if it gives the edge, just input the data and see what it spits out.

[jolmscheid]

Thanks Chili...so is there a way to tell which spreads and totals will most likely have an edge? Like is it usually only the spreads and totals that are 1 point off of Pinny's line or something?? Or do you usually have to enter all of them in?

[chilidog]

Thanks Chili...so is there a way to tell which spreads and totals will most likely have an edge? Like is it usually only the spreads and totals that are 1 point off of Pinny's line or something?? Or do you usually have to enter all of them in?

I've been just looking at the line itself (not the spread), to tell if it's worth it. As Cheme said, you kind of start to figure it out as you do it enough, which games to input into the calculator. I typically look for a line of -107 or worse, since my local gives me -105. -107 should give you a tiny edge, so obviously the higher the line, the more of an edge you have.

I've noticed that it really does help to wait until a few hours before game time to do the calculations, because lines change so much

[KnickFlip]

I'm going to start tailing so expect these plays to stop hitting guys.

[chilidog]

I'm going to start tailing so expect these plays to stop hitting guys.

Why the negativity? The math is there, it's not going anywhere.

[chilidog]

I just did the math, from when Cheme started posting this awesome system of his, and with all 5 sports, here's his grand record for 2010 YTD:

1190 wins - 1098 losses - 43 pushes
+593.02 units

It's already proven itself, because it's clearly broken the 2,000 game benchmark. Just amazing

[jolmscheid]

Thanks chili. So basically if my line on a game is -105 then I should look for pinny or matchys line to be -107 or worse and if my line is -110 then I should look for pinny or matchys line to be -112 or worse etc? Do I got that right? I was thinking of looking if the lines are off by a half point or more too...Idk...thanks for the help

[chilidog]

Well yah, of course look to see if lines are off as well. That's one less 1/2 point you'd have to buy, and it could create the edge itself. I'm not saying that all lines that 1/2 point off are going to create the edge, just some of them might.

And yah, if you're only getting -110 lines, then a -112 line will create the edge that you need.

[jolmscheid]

Thanks Chili...I appreciate it...do you know if Bookmaker, Brobury, BetUSA, or BetJam offer reduced juice lines and still allow buying points? Cuz 5 Dimes has reduced juice but won't let me buy points then...ugh...thanks for the help

[thebestthereis]

The math never loses over time, yes it will fluctuate, but you will always churn a profit. Look at it like a slot machine but instead you are on the casino side getting 2% of every $1.

[slimpickins]

this system sounds so easy but yet confusing at the same time.
Clearly it is doing quite well though.

My book offers max of 2 points bought though on b-ball college or pro, and it cost -150 to do so.
Sounds like the system all depends on what the book you play at is offering vs. what the "sharper" books have the game at, is that correct?
So if I for example played at a sharper book like Pinnacle (which I don't) then the system would really not work as well since their is no edge except for buying points?

[chilidog]

Thanks Chili...I appreciate it...do you know if Bookmaker, Brobury, BetUSA, or BetJam offer reduced juice lines and still allow buying points? Cuz 5 Dimes has reduced juice but won't let me buy points then...ugh...thanks for the help

I don't think that they do. Honestly, if I were in your situation, I would take Cheme's plays, and play them at a regular sportsbook that lets you buy 3 points for -170. It will cut a tiny bit into your profit, at least from what I've been seeing, but not by much. I don't think that you're going to be able to find a book that gives you reduced juice and lets you buy the 3 points for -165.

The math never loses over time, yes it will fluctuate, but you will always churn a profit. Look at it like a slot machine but instead you are on the casino side getting 2% of every $1.

Exactly, and I really like that comparison. The math will never lose over time. Cheme said it best in an earlier post of his. It's just like we're buying $1 bills for 99 cents, 97 cents, 94 cents, etc. That's all we're doing. Yah, sometimes we'll pay $1.65 for that $1, but over time, the profit is clearly there. This isn't something new, untested, or unproven. I'd say that with over 2,000 plays, it's pretty safe to say that it's solid.

[chilidog]

this system sounds so easy but yet confusing at the same time.
Clearly it is doing quite well though.

My book offers max of 2 points bought though on b-ball college or pro, and it cost -150 to do so.
Sounds like the system all depends on what the book you play at is offering vs. what the "sharper" books have the game at, is that correct?
So if I for example played at a sharper book like Pinnacle (which I don't) then the system would really not work as well since their is no edge except for buying points?

Right, it would not work if you were playing at a book like pinny or thegreek, because they have the lines that we are going off of to begin with.

[jolmscheid]

Thanks Chili....so I should wait til longer before gametime to get the most accuarate lines I can...sweet...I will just look for a book that gives me 3 points for -170

[slimpickins]

I feel bad for all of the smaller books and bookies, this system is taking advantage of them and is not fair.

[jolmscheid]

HA HA...very funny Slim...so I also understand that the unit size is based on the edge we have on a play...let's say our edge is 0.5%...do we still play it?

[thebestthereis]

The problem isn't find the books, the problem is the 3 point buy for -170 or less.

[jolmscheid]

I only know of Bet Jam, BetUSA, and Brobury.....no clue about Diamond, or BetOnline or anything...