Weird Cheme...I have 5 Dimes and they were 1.5 points off of Pinny's line for the Illinois game tonight in CBB...I calculated then buying an additional 1.5 points, but it still said I had no edge...that doesn't sound right to me...I mean if 5 Dimes line is off of Pinny's and I buy a point or two, I thought that should be +EV....Hmmm....maybe I'm still doing it wrong?
-
Comment -
I go to UH. If you follow the directions I gave you then you are doing it right. With spreads that big the value of points goes down, it is possible for a book to be off a point or 2 and still not make it +EV. Remember sometimes you see a spread of -6.5 -110, +6.5 100 and then on another book -7,+7 both at -110. Those are both -EV.Comment -
Wednesday
11/10/2010
Orlando -8 -165 4.2
Milwaukee 10 -165 10
Washington 7 -165 8.6
Golden State 6.5 -165 1
Dallas 4.5 -165 5.1
Philly 12 -165 5.2
LAC 17 -165 7.5
Minnesota 12.5 -165 2.1
GLComment -
good luck for ur bets i like that method !Comment -
Thanks bro, good luck to you as well.Comment -
Hi ,
impossible to find your Asian handicap. Which Bookmaker do you use ?
Btw, 95 units with only 10 days, that's amazingComment -
Well Cheme, since I cannot buy 3 points for -165, i'm just gonna follow your plays with the best spread I can get and hope that is good enough!
Comment -
I use a local Hayden, you won't find those lines at any reputable book. Maybe -170 at betus but they probably won't pay you. BTW, it's not been 10 days, I started in October.
Even without buying points you would still be up bigtime. That doesn't mean that will be the case going forward but I hope it is so you can profit even without buying points.Comment -
my local, who uses an online interface, has -170. i am all over it like stink doo doo. betus can go fukkk themselves even though they have always paid me. i just wanted to say that.
great job cheme and thanks for taking time to explain everything like you have.Comment -
GL everyone. Game time!
Comment -
Yup, Cheme's record has been kicking ass the past few months. I just didn't have the bankroll to fully tail him until recently, now I'm full steam ahead with 'em, and profiting very, very nicely! I think that my family's going to get a really nice christmas this year, heh.
Comment -
That's awesome bro, -170 and without risk of having your money in a shitty book is great. I'm glad you guys got it, that way you don't depend on me posting the plays, you can figure them out on your own and make your own calls as far as money management. Also if my bookie puts a hit on me because he'll be getting good odds even after paying the 5k to pop me and I don't post anymore then you guys can keep the thread going. It will be the best posthumous thread.
I'm glad you are on board and getting the same -165 I get bro, great timing to go Christmas shopping as well.Yup, Cheme's record has been kicking ass the past few months. I just didn't have the bankroll to fully tail him until recently, now I'm full steam ahead with 'em, and profiting very, very nicely! I think that my family's going to get a really nice christmas this year, heh.
Comment -
Me too
That's awesome bro, -170 and without risk of having your money in a shitty book is great. I'm glad you guys got it, that way you don't depend on me posting the plays, you can figure them out on your own and make your own calls as far as money management. Also if my bookie puts a hit on me because he'll be getting good odds even after paying the 5k to pop me and I don't post anymore then you guys can keep the thread going. It will be the best posthumous thread.
I'm glad you are on board and getting the same -165 I get bro, great timing to go Christmas shopping as well. I haven't completely figured out the 1/2 point calculator yet. I posted more about it in your CFB thread.
Comment -
Results:
7-1-0 +32.57 units
YTD
50-12-0 +127.79 units
Hey jolmscheid since you can't get a deal similar to what some of us do I went back and backtracked all the picks so far without buying points and at -110 for you.
46-15-1 +113.76 units hitting 74%
That's some crazy shit bro, about 7% less in winning % and 11% less profit so not a huge difference but honestly that # is way out of whack and there is no way I keep hitting at that clip so please don't go crazy on the picks. I would hate for you to go heavy right now and then the losers start coming.
Let's enjoy it while it lasts!
Comment -
Wow congrats. Will be popping in here as well as your other threads
Comment -
Thanks bro, welcome.Comment -
isn't the idea here to make wagers based on +EV probabilities? zero handicapping correct? obviously this will not keep up at this rate and i have to at least pay my bookie once or twice a year
seriously, i would think this would come back to the norm so not having an edge or buying points to get to +EV on the wagers will eventually go against you in the long run correct? i guess what i am saying is the picks are ALL based off your edge and not caring about anything else or is there?
Comment -
This is a good thread to go with. Keep it up!Comment -
That's correct, the edge is "created" by buying half-points for 10 cents. Most of the bets at -110 and regular spreads would have been -EV. That's why I said I don't want anyone that can't buy the points for that price to go crazy and start betting them at -110 expecting the plays to keep hitting at >70%isn't the idea here to make wagers based on +EV probabilities? zero handicapping correct? obviously this will not keep up at this rate and i have to at least pay my bookie once or twice a year seriously, i would think this would come back to the norm so not having an edge or buying points to get to +EV on the wagers will eventually go against you in the long run correct? i guess what i am saying is the picks are ALL based off your edge and not caring about anything else or is there? Comment -
hey cheme good stuff out here really..check ur inboxComment -
I tried the calculator today on my lunch break based on Pinnacle lines. If I did it correct, the plays should be Chicago and Miami. No play on Denver/LA.
Waiting to see if I got this...
. Problem is I can't get the reduced juice that he can locally. It may be possible to find some plays using 5Dimes, they just won't be the exact lines and unit amounts.
Comment -
whats up Cheme?
looks like your are smashing it so far this season! keep rockin!
Comment -
Denver should be a play as well. Tiny edge on Denver +6, at least for now. I'm waiting until an hour before game time to do the calculations again and see if they match up with cheme's.I tried the calculator today on my lunch break based on Pinnacle lines. If I did it correct, the plays should be Chicago and Miami. No play on Denver/LA.
Waiting to see if I got this.... Problem is I can't get the reduced juice that he can locally. It may be possible to find some plays using 5Dimes, they just won't be the exact lines and unit amounts.
Ah, I just re-read the 2nd part of your post. I'm getting reduced juice like cheme, so that's why Denver is a play for me. If you're getting standard lines, than yah, I don't think Denver would be a play.Comment -
With my book, I would have a play on chicago -5 and a play on Miami -5.5Comment -
I'm about to take off for the day so I have to make my plays now.
Thursday
11/11/2010
Miami -4 -165 5.3
Chicago -3.5 -165 6.2
Denver 6.5 -165 5.3
Bodog has Denver +3.5 that's why it's a medium play for me.
GLComment -
What time of day do you check and plug in the lines? I'm thinking you must have to wait for the opening lines to adjust to sharp action, right?
I'm interested in seeing what % your plays would hit at over the course of a season if someone just played straight up. For example, if someone just bet Miami -7, Chicago -6.5, and Denver +3.Comment -
oh no,s!
All 3 of my maybe picks are against yours! haha
I guess I will take today off.
GL
Comment -
I'm glad that I got it figured out finally. I came up with the picks as him for both NBA and CFB, so that made me feel better that it's all clicked. Heh, I was so excited last night, figuring this all out, that I couldn't get to sleep for a few hours. What a rush that was.
Comment -
So Cheme...or anyone else...basically your edge is created by the buying of points, so if I can't do that, do you think it's still worth it to follow the plays at the best odds I can get long term? Thanks guysComment
