No problem bro, hope we hit them.
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Results:
1-1-0 -2.62units
YTD
35-10-0 +66.72 unitsComment -
So Cheme....just so I get this right...you are buying three points on your NBA selections and playing them straight correct? And the number behind the play is the amount of units?Comment -
Dang...If I have 5Dimes I can't buy 3 points and get -165...what about buying 2 points for -155?
Also Cheme...if you have an edge on a game, why do you buy the 3 points anyways??
And finally, you think it would still be profitable to use your units and bet the game you have without buying the 3 points? Thanks man!Comment -
I'm buying a maximum of 3 points for 10 cents per half point, the number after the line is the amount of units I want to win on the game. So NYK +9 -165 2 means the line was +6, I bought 3 points and I want to win 2 units. If I lose then I would lose 3.3 units.
I buy points because it increases my edge and sometimes it creates the edge itself because of the price that I get on the points. I remember JM's scam was touting betus and they were even selling 3 points for -170 but were shading the lines on the JM series games (at least for the players that were identified as JM bettors) if you can get the 3 points for -170 them most of my plays are +EV at that price and if you find them shading the lines then you can play against JM and create huge EV. As far as buying 2 points for -155 on some spreads that will be better than playing the available spread at standard -110, if you don't know how to use the half-point calculator then try it out, it will tell you everything you need to know http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tool...alculator.aspx
Be very careful though because betus is broke according to SBR and they might not pay you so I would try finding a local of some sorts like chilidog has that gives you a similar deal with less risk to your $Comment -
Yah, I've been playing around with the half-point calculator that I learned about from reading several of your posts. Is this all that you're using, combined with the pinny lines, to make your picks? That must take a ton of time for college football, and even more so with college basketball starting up.Comment -
Yeah, that's it bro. It took a bunch of time when I started doing it this season because of the amount of games, but eventually you pick up speed and also learn a few tricks. Now I go to sbrodds and I have it setup so that Pinnacle and Bodog are next to each other, I can spot line discrepancies easier that way. Also after using the calculator for a while you get the feeling of which spreads might represent value and which ones don't depending on the juice and the spread itself. So on a lot of games I don't even bother because I "know" there won't be any value.
When I started the season I was doing full games, halves, and quarter. That took for ever but that's the reason the CFB picks have picked up almost 300 units.
Since being cut off I don't spend all the time I was before looking at all those lines, but if your local let's you play them you should definitely look into those.Comment -
Yah, I can see that it takes a ton of time, heh. I don't know which book my local gets his line from, but I can tell that it's not bodog. I usually get -105 on both sides, but the majority of the time, the spread being offered is the same as pinnacle's.Comment -
Dang Cheme that is just awesome....I wish I had a book that would allow me to get those weak numbers...how far off does the line on Bodog have to be from Pinny's in order for you to place a betComment -
Ok so Cheme...on the 1/2 point calculator I took the Magic game tonight where they are favored by -9...both sides are -110 and I put that into the calculator. Now it says on the calculator that if I were to buy it down to -7.5, then the odds are or should be -145.5.....and if I buy 1.5 points at 5Dimes I can get it for -140...so is that +EV? Or is that how I do it?? ThanksComment -
Monday
11/8/2010
Charlotte 7 -165 10
Atlanta 12 -165 3.5
Denver 5.5 -165 1
Memphis -1.5 -165 2
GLComment -
GL!Comment -
That's exactly how I do it, except that I look at Pinny's line on the game which right now has -104 juice on Orlando and -106 on Atlanta. I use those lines and not the lines that I get (-110 on both sides in your case). Look at the window labeled "Favorite's edge" it should read -3.01% (if you use -110 on both sides) so that is not +EV. Remember you can scroll up and down the calculator so you don't have to just move 1.5 points, crossing 2 or 3 numbers with push probability >4% creates a ton of EV if you can but half points for 10 cents.Comment -
Just FYI, Charlotte and Atl just cashed but I just noticed that I have Charlotte listed as a 10 unit play. That is a typo, it was just a 1 unit play. Remember my range is 1-5% of my bankroll. The NBA bankroll is at 166.72 units so I can't play anything for more than 8 units.
If someone unloaded on them then I'm glad you hit it (maybe pushed if you got +4 -110) but keep that in mind in case you see a play that makes no sense.Comment -
Yah, I thought the 10 unit was a lot, but I did play it, and cashed, buying the 3 points at -165. Thanks for posting that, though; I'll know in the future. Tonight's shaping up to be another awesome night.
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You played it for 10 units?Comment -
I started my CBB thread with a 2-unit play on Rhode Island today by the way, you can check it out here:
http://forum.sbrforum.com/ncaa-baske...-november.htmlComment -
u rock
why not all plays same unit size?Comment -
Thanks bro. Because not all plays have the same edge, I bet more if my edge is bigger.Comment -
Results:
4-0-0 +7.5 units
YTD
39-10-0 +74.22 unitsComment -
I'm lovin this
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Geez Cheme...just look at you go! OK so if I cannot buy 3 points and get -165 or better should I:
A) Follow your plays without buying points and use the same units?
Or
B) Use the 1/2 point calculator and find plays with edge there? (I still don't know if I am using it right tho!)
Thanks Cheme....Comment -
Tuesday
11/9/2010
Indiana 7 -165 8.5
Cleveland 7 -165 1.7
Utah 12.5 -165 5.1
LAC 12.5 -165 1.7
Portland -6.5 -165 8.5
GLComment -
indiana, cleveland +5?Comment -
how did you get Indiana to +7?? the highest the line has got is +2...Comment -
type-oComment -
Hey Cheme or someone else....I think I am using the 1/2 point calculator correctly but I'm not sure...some help would be greatly apprecitated. Thanks guysComment -
Sorry bro, I was on my way to school and running late as usual.
What you do is grab lines from a book that you consider to be sharp with their lines. I use Pinnacle, some people use matchbook, or the Greek. Choose anyone you want but make sure you trust their lines to be sharp. A book with high limits usually means they have sharper lines than recreational books.
Let's take tomorrow's game of the Nets at Cleveland. Pinnacle has a line of NJ +5.5 -110 and Cleveland -5.5 +100 so those are the values you put into the calculator.
Then I see the different spreads and the juice at which they should be priced, I decide if it's better to move the spread up or down. The calculator gives you a range of +1.5 and -1.5 points from the spread you enter. If you move the spread down to -4 the suggested price is -129.6, but if you move it up to 7 the the fair price should be -144.3 so I see it's better to move it up because my hooks cost 10 cents regardless of which way I go.
If I replace the -144.3 for the +7 spread with -135 (which is what it would cost me to buy 1.5 points then I see that the dog edge changes from -2.33 to 0.43. That's +EV right there, but I scroll down 1.5 more points to +8.5 and see that the true price should be -186.9. I replace that with -165 which is my cost and I read a dog's edge of 2.19%. I round to the closet half and since I have an edge of 2% then I make a bet worth 2% of my NBA bankroll which today was around 174 units so my bet would be for about 3.5 units.
My local uses Bodog lines and sometimes they are off by half a point and even a whole point, in that case you can finder monster edges moving the same way that the line is slanted. I buy as much as 3 points depending on what creates the biggest edge. Sometimes I don't buy the whole 3 but most times I do.
I stop at 3 points for 2 reasons:
1) The calculator becomes less accurate the farther you move from the posted spread and I don't want to overestimate my edge.
2) I don't want to push it too much with my local because I want to keep doing this. I already got severely limited on the bets I can make in CFB with him. Look at the CFB thread and see how much I took him for and you can see why.
Hope that helps.Last edited by Cheme82; 11-10-10, 12:04 AM.Comment -
Results:
4-1-0 +21 units
YTD
43-11-0 +95.22 unitsComment -
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Thanks cheme! You are absolutely killing it bro! Where do you go to school? I go too...Comment
