Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

[Grinder12000]

01/08/14
S1,H3,O4 = 82-69 +30.88u
EX = 70-45 +35.24u
SAS2 15-4 +13.90u.
All chases Tot 80.02u
Straight betting ALL games 167-118! +37.2u
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out
FAQ is on POST 425

Results
86C S3 Sacramento 4.84 to win 4.41 Win
88B H3 Utah 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
65B EX fade Cleveland Philly 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose
68A EX fade Boston Denver 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
69A EX Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
70A EX fade Milwaukee Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
SAS2
"A" fade Chicago Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose
"A" fade Philly Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
"A" Memphis 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
"A" Washington 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
"A" Dallas 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

Gasping for Air Wednesday known games

89A S3 Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(1)

71A EX fade Boston LA Clippers 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(3)
72A EX Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00
73A EX Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00***(1)

SAS2
"A" fade Houston LA Lakers 1.10 to win 1.00
"A" Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(2)
"A" fade Brooklyn Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(1)
"A" Boston 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(3)
"A" Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(2)
"A" Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(1)
"A" fade Portland Orlando 1.10 to win 1.00

***(1) if you are playing our complimentary home game it's
Golden State 2.20u to win 2.00
Brooklyn 0.00u to win 0.00

***(2) Well, that's going to wreak my winning pct. These games cancel each other out.

***(3) again - these games cancel. We will pick up the loser their next game as a "B" bet.

hmmmm, actually not that many plays with all the cancels! Go Golden State!!

A lot of teams taking 4 or 5 days off after Saturday.

Twitter @Grinder12000

[Mako-SBR]

Unbelievable night, wow. Excellent job Grinder.

Your EX and SAS3 games are 85-49 combined...just amazing.

[Grinder12000]

Oh I've been doing a quiet happy dance hoping not to nudge the gambling gods from their slumber.

maybe I've broken the code.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Grinder, what posts are the explanation for all the plays, or could you post one? I'm a supervisor for my local post office (mailman by trade) and I just finished a month of many many hours and have had no time to follow. I just wanna catch up since it looks like I missed alot of units won.

[Grinder12000]

------ POST 425 ------

Grinders Systems and how to play along for fun and hopefully profit

I'll explain the systems and then the betting (4 game chase but . . . . . )

The first three systems are bastardizations of Stifflers systems last year with some minor tweaks and different teams

H3 - play to win or lose 1 game out of the next 4, when a team starts a 4 game home stand or 4 game road trip.

S3 - play to win or lose 1 game out of the next 4 after a team wins or loses 3 consecutive games ATS (certain teams)

S1 Streak
PLAY	Fade
Brooklin	Brooklin
Cleveland	Mia
Charl	LAL
Orlando	N.O.
Golden St	OKC
Utah	Port

O1 - play to win or lose 1 game out of the next 4 after a team plays an overtime game (certain teams)

S4 Overtime
Play	Fade
Atlanta	Atlanta
LAClippers	Boston
Miami	Brooklyn
Sacremento	Dallas
Toronto	Denver
	Miami
	New Orleans
	NYKnicks
	Phoenix
	Portland
	Sacremento

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

The following systems are my creation coming from theory's and observations from the last few years in chases and as I have said in the past I have much more confidence in these as I'm not locked into "rules" and can adjust as we go.

EX - Teams picked for chases are picked based on RPI which involves winning percentage (actual wins and losses) RPI looks at winning Pct home and away, opponents winning Pct home and away AND opponents opponents winning pct home and away. With the upcoming schedule taken into account.

SAS2 - Super Advanced S2 - is a secret until it fails.
--------------------------------------------------------
Betting

The above were all designed to be 4 game chases meaning your goal is to win ONE game out of the next 4. Once you win that chase is over. With chases winning is easy - NOT LOSING 4 is the goal.

Games are listed as "A", "B", "C" "D"

"A" bet 1.10units to win 1.00 - IF YOU LOSE
"B" bet 2.31units to win 2.10 - IF YOU LOSE
"C" bet 4.85units to win 4.41 - IF YOU LOSE
"D" bet 10.19units to win 9.26.

This is a high risk high reward betting system - I have no problem skipping "D" bets if I feel VERY uncomfortable. If you are up don't get greedy.

HOWEVER - many have noticed that "my" systems are kicking butt straight betting which, as of 1/8/14 were 85-49 (which match incomplete back testing percentages).

So if you are not in the high risk high reward mode - seems you can straight bet like a normal human. I did not create these for straight betting but I'm not surprised.

Official lines are used from the SBR site - nearest line to 5:00

Although if there is weirdness I have no problem taking a loss if needed. I'm not here to pump a record.

..... did I miss anything??

OH - @grinder12000

[Jeremylynn]

I love waking up and seeing my bank roll sky rocket. Loving the new plays grinder.

[voodoopulling]

Excellent Work Grinder! The 2 new systems have been performing very well.

[Trep]

Just a quick question...so lines do not matter here? We're just betting on generally the odds to win a series for certain teams usually (among other factors)?

[Grinder12000]

Trep, that is correct. And one thing I forgot. In general I use the line that was closest to 5:00EST, not closing line for the official line. People don't generally wait until game time to enter a wager. There was one game where the line moved from -2.5 to -5 in the last half hour. All day it was -2.5.

i try to be fair. I'm not here to pump my record and brag. I know I have been hot and will get spanked sooner or later. So far lines have not been a problem at all.

and in case anyone wonders, I take morning lines so I can get on with my day.

[Trep]

Makes sense. Just getting into SB myself and trying to do it disciplined this time. At least these chasing aren't bet the bank to try to recover =P

Thanks for all the work.

[Grinder12000]

Welllllll . . . sort of! But from the looks of it straight betting EX and SAS2 is not the craziest thing. Just play within your bankroll and think hard before putting down 10 units on a game. We have had 4 big losers and it hurts.

I designed EX and SAS2 specifically for chasing and the side effect has been 75-49 posted plays and another 40-26 in non-posted back testing plays (November 2 to the 18th so far). So unofficially 115-75. I think most people will agree hitting 60% in the NBA is ludicrous!

[Mako-SBR]

In general I use the line that was closest to 5:00EST, not closing line for the official line. People don't generally wait until game time to enter a wager. There was one game where the line moved from -2.5 to -5 in the last half hour. All day it was -2.5.

i try to be fair. I'm not here to pump my record and brag. I know I have been hot and will get spanked sooner or later. So far lines have not been a problem at all.

and in case anyone wonders, I take morning lines so I can get on with my day.

Same here, could care less about timing the line, I bet when it's convenient (though this question keeps getting repeated by people who aren't taking the time to read the thread before asking).

It's one of the few times where a point here or a point there doesn't seem to impact the result...pushes have been extremely rare as a whole for example...

[Grinder12000]

Actually if you pay attention you can get an extra half or whole point and it becomes a fun game. Try to get in the minds of Joe Square. Hot fav at home will sneak up but what I look for is the whole line.

+2.5 -105 yells me that the books are trying to get you to take that bet before they are forced to go to +3.

+2.5 -115 says they really don't want you to take it and hope you wait until it's +2

Not that it always works out but getting a good line is a learned art.

i know I've won a couple chases early because of a good line so it does help so shouldn't be totally ignored.

[Trep]

That really is part of the fun of it - shopping for lines. I've been trying to bring myself to place and evaluate after instead of stressing over some of these games.

Two of my books have low juice (50 cent) and rebates on losses (technically comes almost at even house edge) so I've been making some hedge bets between them. I actually hit on both sides on a NFL bet when I had a 1 point difference between them. Been tempted to do some live bet hedging when you're winning a bet when I have a weird feeling.

Also works wonders if you have extra books. I'm currently using 3...I just pick whoever has the best line at the moment and get back to work/eating/life =P

[Grinder12000]

I HAD three books, one closed to Americans like 7 years ago and it has seemed to lose every game. The other two books only do winners and Intertops who I had a long long time shut down for us.

[Grinder12000]

01/09/14
S1,H3,O4 = 83-69 +31.88u
EX = 71-47 +34.04u
SAS2 17-8 +11.50u
All chases Tot 75.32u
Straight betting ALL games 171-124! +34.6u
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out
FAQ is on POST 425

results

WOW - a bad night 4-6-1 Is that correct? is that what others have?

89A S3 Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

71A EX fade Boston LA Clippers 1.10 to 1.00 Lose
72A EX Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
73A EX Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE

SAS2
"A" fade Houston LA Lakers 1.10 to win 1.00 Push (of course LOL)
"A" Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
"A" fade Brooklyn Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
"A" Boston 1.10 to win 1.00 Won
"A" Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose
"A" Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose
"A" fade Portland Orlando 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose

I really did not like last nights games - too many canceling games - very messy.

Sleepy Thursday

SAS2
"A" Denver 1.10 to win 1.00

That is all there is - at the moment the 3 systems are picking TWENTY games. Have not looked at cancel games and redundant games yet. I'll have to get out my abacus. Many teams are taking 3 - 5 days off next week. Friday will be CLEAN UP FRIDAY.

BTW - some asked why I post plays that go against each other. The reason is this is designed for chases so EVERY game, in theory, is worth 1 unit. So while it looks weird we do make money on every game . . .even if we skip games.

[miczz14]

12 games on fri, 9 games on sat. im excited

[csavoia]

Are we betting the ML for Denver or the spread and if its the spread what should it be. My site has it at +3.5

[Grinder12000]

Always the spread.

I got +3.5 so I'm using that - but officially I used the closest line to 5:00PM on this site

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/

Unless a number of people have a difference of opinion. It's not about the record, it's about people winning money. I've never liked using the closing line!

[miczz14]

hope you can post early mr. grinder

good win tonight.

[Grinder12000]

01/10/14
S1,H3,O4 = 83-69 +31.88u
EX = 71-47 +34.04u
SAS2 18-8 +12.50u
All chases Tot 78.42u
Straight betting ALL games 172-124! +35.6u
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out
FAQ is on POST 425

Results
SAS2
"A" Denver 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

HANG OVER FRIDAY numbers coming later
Simpler version below!!

90A H3 Philly 1.10 to win 1.00 *(1)
91A H3 Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00 *(3)
92A H3 fade Cleveland Utah 1.10 to win 1.00
93A S3 fade LA Lakers LA Clippers 1.10 to win 1.00

65C EX fade Cleveland Utah 4.85 to win 4.41
71B EX fade Boston Golden State 2.31 to win 2.10
74B EX fade Orlando Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.10
75A EX fade Detroit Philly 1.10 to win 1.00 *(1)
76A EX fade Cleveland Utah 1.10 to win 1.00
73A EX Golden State1.10 to win 1.00

SAS2
"A" Washington 1.10 to win 1.00 *(3)
"B" fade Chicago Milwaukee 2.31 to win 2.10 *(2)
"B" fade Brooklyn Miami 2.31 to win 2.10
"A" fade Phllly Detroit 1.10 to win 1.00 *(1)
"B" Indiana 2.31 to win 2.10 *(3)
"A" fade Milwaukee Chicago 1.10 to win 1.00 *(2)
"A" Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00
"A" Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00

*(1) Philly 1.10 to win 1.00 Detroit skip
*(2) Milwaukee 1.21 to win 1.10 skip Chicago
*(3) Indiana 2.31 to win 2.10 skip Washington

SIMPLE VERSION

Philly 1.10 to win 1.00
Indiana 2.31 to win 2.10
Utah 5.95 to win 5.41
LA Clippers 1.10 to win 1.00
Milwaukee 1.21 to win 1.00
Golden State 4.52 to win 4.1
Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.10
Miami 2.31 to win 2.10

[miczz14]

tyvm mr. grinder

i hope i can give you all my points. LOL

[Grinder12000]

SIMPLE VERSION of 1/10/14

Sorry of being late. Home Brew club meeting last night. Mistakes were eminent last night.

A clean version if you are just betting ALL games as opposed to picking and choosing systems

Philly 1.10 to win 1.00
Indiana 2.31 to win 2.10
Utah 5.95 to win 5.41
LA Clippers 1.10 to win 1.00
Milwaukee 1.21 to win 1.00
Golden State 4.52 to win 4.1
Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.10
Miami 2.31 to win 2.10

SO - we have all had these moments right???

[csavoia]

Fantastic job Grinder. May I ask why there are two separate posts with the same bet?
Newbie here on this system.

[Grinder12000]

Just condensing. Some people handicap the system, picking and choosing the systems for their own systems. Or just playing One system.

The condensed version is for people that just bet ALL games no matter the system. I've never done this but it was rather convoluted with like 18 separate picks

[Trep]

Thanks again. Man must be so much work to compute 4 systems lol.

I'm doing more straight until there's a good reset point so I'm mostly following the ex/sas flat betting on the ones that have more confidence imo (dont cancel as much)

Took GSw Miami and kings tonight. BOL long night of games

[Grinder12000]

I can do S1,H3,O4 the night before normally.

EX HAS to be done in the morning Central time America (-6 GMT)

SAS2 is the real work and I can get SOME done the night before.

I still play with the idea of dumping the 4th game of chases. I'm not sure if that 4th game is + or - EV. IF it breaks even is it worth the stress? I believe it breaks even so . . . why bother. I know for SAS2 I just don't have enough data for that 4th game. typically that 4th game of a chase is the 6th or 7th game of a streak and teams rarly get to that point. Being 1-4 or 5-3 is basically meaningless so we're putting a crap load on one .50% bet.


I only really do this to make pretty spreadsheets. This is the EX system

[csavoia]

How do I know which system to follow to choose the bets I make. You ny had one game yesterday so it was easy but today there are many. How do I decide which s the best system to follow? Sorry for the questions but I am confused.

[Trep]

That graph looks like Christmas =P

[Grinder12000]

How do I know which system to follow to choose the bets I make. You ny had one game yesterday so it was easy but today there are many. How do I decide which s the best system to follow? Sorry for the questions but I am confused.

As you should be LOL - that is why I had that SIMPLE VERSION of 1/10/14 post to water it down a little and make it easier to read

What I posted is actually 5 different systems. All seem to be working but they seem to go against each other. So the SIMPLE VERSION tries to make the decision making a little easier. Plus you know how it goes - pick ONE system and it will crash when all the other s zoom.

Many people seem to gravitate (I THINK) from one system to another using the 5 systems to make their OWN system.

I just wager the SIMPLE VERSION which I MIGHT continue if I get some feed back - just include near the bottom or something on mammoth days.

[Grinder12000]

01/10/14

All systems combined straight betting 181-137 for +30.30 units
All chases Tot 68.01u
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out
FAQ is on POST 425

Results
90A H3 Philly 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost
91A H3 Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
92A H3 fade Cleveland Utah 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost
93A S3 fade LA Lakers LA Clippers 1.10 to win 1.00 Win

65C EX fade Cleveland Utah 4.85 to win 4.41 Lost
71B EX fade Boston Golden State 2.31 to win 2.10 Lost
74B EX fade Orlando Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.10 Win
75A EX fade Detroit Philly 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost
76A EX fade Cleveland Utah 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost
73A EX Golden State1.10 to win 1.00 Lost

SAS2
"A" Washington 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost
"B" fade Chicago Milwaukee 2.31 to win 2.10 Lost
"B" fade Brooklyn Miami 4.85 to win 4.41 Lost
"A" fade Phllly Detroit 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
"B" Indiana 2.31 to win 2.10 Win
"A" fade Milwaukee Chicago 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
"A" Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
"A" Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost

Last 7 days
S1,H3,O4 = 6-4
EX = 14-13
SAS2 22-12

Saturday's three systems

S3,H3,O1 = 85-71 +31.68u corrected
92B H3 Philly 2.31 to win 2.1
94A O1 fade Brooklyn Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00

EX = 74-54 +25.48u
74B EX Orlando 2.31 to win 2.10
75B EX fade Detroit Phoenix 2.31 to win 2.10
77A EX fade Charlotte Chicago 1.10 to win 1.00
78A EX fade Milwaukee OKC 1.10 to win 1.00
79A EX Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00

SAS2 22-12 +10.88u
"B" Washington 2.31 to win 2.10
"C" Fade Chicago Charlotte 4.85 to win 4.41
"C" fade Brooklyn Toronto 4.85 to win 4.41
"A" fade Charlotte Chicago 1.10 to win 1.00
"A" Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00
"B" fade Portland Boston 2.31 to win 2.10


Three NBA games Sunday - we can relax a little. Many teams are taking a few days off this week.

NOTE - All 3 game chases - 4 game chases proved to be a 50% bet
with too much stress involved. People skipped it and the numbers prove
it was not a +EV bet.

SIMPLE VERSION

Philly 2.31 to win 2.1
Toronto 7.05 to win 6.41
Orlando 2.31 to win 2.10
Phoenix 2.31 to win 2.10
Oklahoma City 2.20 to win 2.00
Charlotte 2.65 to win 2.41
Washington 2.31 to win 2.10
Boston 2.31 to win 2.10


By my calculations last night was a -10 unit night which is bad but in the long run it was due. I view it like profit taking by the bookies!

[miczz14]

shouldnt it suppose to be ex fade det?

[Grinder12000]

NOTE - added "B" fade Portland Boston 2.31 to win 2.10 - missed that one!
Changed SAS2 "C" fade Brooklyn Toronto 4.85 to win 4.41
Changed "C" Fade Chicago Charlotte 4.85 to win 4.41

Sorry guys - I guess I was in a hurry and missed a few things! Need to slow down.

This is a chart of the 5 systems combined this year.

I normally don't like to post stuff like this because it gives people false expectations but after a -10 unit night perhaps it's a good time.

[Grinder12000]

01/12/14

All systems combined straight betting 189-143 for +31.70 units
All chases Tot 66.46u
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out
FAQ is on POST 425

Saturday's results

S3,H3,O1 = 86-72 +30.37u
92B H3 Philly 2.31 to win 2.1 LOSE
94A O1 fade Brooklyn Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

EX = 77-56 +23.86u
74B EX Orlando 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose
75B EX fade Detroit Phoenix 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose by 1/2
77A EX fade Charlotte Chicago 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
78A EX fade Milwaukee OKC 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
79A EX Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00 Win

SAS2 26-14 +12.23u
"B" Washington 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose
"C" Fade Chicago Charlotte 4.85 to win 4.41 Lose
"C" fade Brooklyn Toronto 4.85 to win 4.41 Win
"A" fade Charlotte Chicago 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
"A" Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
"B" fade Portland Boston 2.31 to win 2.10 Win


Straight betting you won a couple - chase betting you lost a couple

Sundays Final games

92B H3 fade Cleveland Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.00
95A S3 Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00

76B EX Cleveland 2.31 to win 2.10

SAS2
"A" Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00
"A" Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00
"A" fade Sacramento hmmmm let's say Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00

SIMPLE VERSION

Cleveland to win 3.41 to win 3.10
Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00

[flyingcarbs]

NOTE - added "B" fade Portland Boston 2.31 to win 2.10 - missed that one!
Changed SAS2 "C" fade Brooklyn Toronto 4.85 to win 4.41
Changed "C" Fade Chicago Charlotte 4.85 to win 4.41

Sorry guys - I guess I was in a hurry and missed a few things! Need to slow down.

This is a chart of the 5 systems combined this year.

I normally don't like to post stuff like this because it gives people false expectations but after a -10 unit night perhaps it's a good time.

Grinder, is the Y-axis measuring days or wagers? Could you PM me a sample of your spreadsheet?