Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

**Grinder12000** · 12-14-13, 08:44 AM

12/14 was updated adding a Philly Fade on the EX system

Cheesehead - my RPIs are updated every morning. Not too late. I personally have more confidence in the EX system but all seem to be running with the peddle to the metal at the moment

money management is the most important thing in sports wagering. You get rich in the long run not the short run. It's a lifetime system and the key is to keep increasing your bank every year. Not every week.

**Jeremylynn** · 12-14-13, 09:40 AM

Playing blazers not okc right?

**Jeremylynn** · 12-14-13, 09:45 AM

I have a question I jumped in with y'all yesterday. Thread states y'all won with Toronto. Which I know some may have/have not won depending on the line you got. Well I pushed, so in that case do I keep chasing or cut my losses. Same question goes for if I loose and y'all win with a future line

**Grinder12000** · 12-14-13, 10:35 AM

Jeremylynn as far as that game you are in luck as we are still fading Philly. Looking at Philly's upcoming schedule we might be fading Philly for a while if they don't start winning LOL So one way would be to put maybe 1/2 unit on all the philly fades coming up. We MIGHT have 3 or 4 more Philly fades coming up if things work out well.

As far as point spreads. I use the line that is closest to 5:00PM on

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

I figure maybe a lot of people place wagers when they get home from work and can't watch all day. In this case you gut unlucky with an early line it looks like.

As far as future problems like this - I personally have no problems with cutting losses if things don't work out, or sometimes I try to grab a little more on future bets (like Philly fades).

**CheeseHead** · 12-14-13, 10:04 PM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

12/14 was updated adding a Philly Fade on the EX system

Cheesehead - my RPIs are updated every morning. Not too late. I personally have more confidence in the EX system but all seem to be running with the peddle to the metal at the moment

money management is the most important thing in sports wagering. You get rich in the long run not the short run. It's a lifetime system and the key is to keep increasing your bank every year. Not every week.

But isn't money management pretty much against the idea of Stifler's system? The reason anyone ended up losing a ton on that system last year was because those long chases continuously kept losing. It's hard to consider it good money management when you continue chasing your money & keep losing. If we had just straight-bet everything it would have been a lot easier on the bankroll. It looks like your experiment is lowering the risk a little bit though so far.

**Mako-SBR** · 12-15-13, 01:00 AM

Originally posted by CheeseHead

But isn't money management pretty much against the idea of Stifler's system? The reason anyone ended up losing a ton on that system last year was because those long chases continuously kept losing. It's hard to consider it good money management when you continue chasing your money & keep losing. If we had just straight-bet everything it would have been a lot easier on the bankroll. It looks like your experiment is lowering the risk a little bit though so far.

Then straight bet it, problem solved. Anyone involved with Martingale chases is well aware of the risks.

Sorry you got burned last time, adjust your own strategy accordingly and follow along silently with the rest of us.

**miczz14** · 12-15-13, 08:12 AM

any plays? pls post early :'(

**Grinder12000** · 12-15-13, 09:45 AM

12/15/13
S1,H3,O4 = 55-44 +37.35u
EX = 36-15 +36.00u
Tot 73.35u

Results

60A H3 Miami 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
61A S1 Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
62A S1 LAL fade Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
63A O4 Atl fade NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
36A EX Philly fade Portland 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

Home Brew Club Christmas party last night - LATE night with way too much beer!

SUNDAY
64A S1 Portland 1.10 to win 1.00
37A EX Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00
38A EX Orlando fade Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00

Mondays known games

60B H3 Miami 2.31 to win 2.1
62B S1 LALakers fade Atlanta 2.31 to win 2.1

Instead of money management I should have stressed bankroll management. A small difference. Money management has to do with betting and bankroll management is more of your entire betting bucket of money.

**LakeShow** · 12-15-13, 01:44 PM

Grinder, so we are putting 2 units on okc?

**Grinder12000** · 12-15-13, 03:30 PM

Correct - it's two different chases so they will diverge after today.

**CheeseHead** · 12-15-13, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

12/15/13
S1,H3,O4 = 55-44 +37.35u
EX = 36-15 +36.00u
Tot 73.35u

Home Brew Club Christmas party last night - LATE night with way too much beer!

SUNDAY
63A S1 Portland 1.10 to win 1.00
37A EX Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00
38A EX Orlando fade Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00

Mondays known games

60B H3 Miami 2.31 to win 2.1
62B S1 LALakers fade Atlanta 2.31 to win 2.1

Instead of money management I should have stressed bankroll management. A small difference. Money management has to do with betting and bankroll management is more of your entire betting bucket of money.

What lines are you getting on these? Feel like if there's line movement there will be the possibility down the road where the system covers but people who are following may not. Sorry if this has already been brought up or covered in this topic before.

**Mako-SBR** · 12-15-13, 05:26 PM

Originally posted by CheeseHead

What lines are you getting on these? Feel like if there's line movement there will be the possibility down the road where the system covers but people who are following may not. Sorry if this has already been brought up or covered in this topic before.

Don't quote the picks, it's not necessary.

And this is yet another time you've asked a question that's already been talked about or answered. And this question was answered just a few pages ago...Read the thread.

**Grinder12000** · 12-15-13, 06:10 PM

It's fine - If there is a close game I use the lines here

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

The line NORMALLY is the one closest to 5:00PM - I HATE closing lines as some rich dude will come in and played a $10K bet and the line moves a minute before the game.

If there is a majority here that get a bad line I have no problem changing a W to a L or vice versa. I'm not out to prove a system. I'm here to have fun and make money, not pound my chest in greatness! (I do that quietly with no one looking).

Don't quote though.

**bgilic** · 12-15-13, 06:23 PM

Grinder:
63A S1 Portland 1.10 to win 1.00

Should be 64A since series 63 was yesterday 63A O4 Atl fade NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

**CheeseHead** · 12-15-13, 10:08 PM

Originally posted by Mako-SBR

Don't quote the picks, it's not necessary.

And this is yet another time you've asked a question that's already been talked about or answered. And this question was answered just a few pages ago...Read the thread.

Coming from a guy who's been on the forum for 2 months. Anger issues or what? Just asked a question buddy, chill.

Looks like you just base it off of closing numbers then which works, Grinder. Thanks for the response. GL.

**Mako-SBR** · 12-15-13, 11:01 PM

Originally posted by CheeseHead

Coming from a guy who's been on the forum for 2 months. Anger issues or what? Just asked a question buddy, chill.

Looks like you just base it off of closing numbers then which works, Grinder. Thanks for the response. GL.

And a user of forums, and the etiquette that goes with them, for nearly 20 years.
Feel free to ask some more questions, happy to help you not lose it all as you did last time.

**Grinder12000** · 12-15-13, 11:37 PM

12/16/13
S1,H3,O4 = 55-45 +36.25u
EX = 36-17 +33.80u
Tot 70.05u

Results

64A S1 Portland 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST
37A EX Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSER
38A EX Orlando fade Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSER again

Monday yee haw!
60B H3 Miami 2.31 to win 2.10
62B S1 LALfade Atlanta 2.31 to win 2.10
65A H3 LAClippers 1.10 to win 1.00
35B EX Indiana 2.31 to win 2.10
37B EX Orlando fade Chicago 2.31 to win 2.10
38A EX Philly Fade Brooklyn 1.10 to win 2.10

Tuesday Known games
63B S1 Portland
66A O4 Portland
38B EX Oklahoma City

WELL - being a cheesehead you can believe that I'm in good spirits to say the least with the Packer/Cowboy NFL game. Any Dallas fans I can feel your pain . . . no . . I can't, that was a REAL REAL bad loss! Horrible Horrible coaching. I heard the Cowboys have released Jerry Jones

As for the little tiff above - just let me take care of things please. If something really gets to be a pain I can police it, thanks.

**Numbersneverlie** · 12-16-13, 12:22 PM

Seems like the experimental games are hitting better than the chase system

**Grinder12000** · 12-16-13, 03:06 PM

OK - I'm going to talk this new idea out!

As you know I have this RPI generator which is like a power rating. The same thing used for NCAA football and so forth.

Currently the EX system is picking teams on the top OR bottom and going with or against those hot or cold teams. However I believe there is a flaw but . . . can't complain SO FAR. The problem is once a team is on the top or bottom the linemakers are adjusting the lines.

In blackjack if you can count cards (which I have done) the profits are not when you get a high count, it's GETTING to the high count.

What if I could find teams that were cold and are now becoming hot, the public and linemakers have not caught up yet. So pick bad teams that are getting better to win a 4 game chase and good teams sinking to lose a 4 game fade.

hmmmmm food for thought. Seems like it would be a ton of work.

**bgilic** · 12-16-13, 10:12 PM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

OK - I'm going to talk this new idea out!

As you know I have this RPI generator which is like a power rating. The same thing used for NCAA football and so forth.

Currently the EX system is picking teams on the top OR bottom and going with or against those hot or cold teams. However I believe there is a flaw but . . . can't complain SO FAR. The problem is once a team is on the top or bottom the linemakers are adjusting the lines.

In blackjack if you can count cards (which I have done) the profits are not when you get a high count, it's GETTING to the high count.

What if I could find teams that were cold and are now becoming hot, the public and linemakers have not caught up yet. So pick bad teams that are getting better to win a 4 game chase and good teams sinking to lose a 4 game fade.

hmmmmm food for thought. Seems like it would be a ton of work.

This sounds like very interesting idea Grinder. You might be on to something. We are due for a cold streak in our NBA chase so if we can find a new method I would be all interested.

**Grinder12000** · 12-16-13, 11:16 PM

12/17/13
S1,H3,O4 = 58-45 +41.45u
EX = 37-19 +31.28u
Tot 72.73u

Results!

60B H3 Miami 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
62B S1 LALfade Atlanta 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
65A H3 LAClippers 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
35B EX Indiana 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE
37B EX Orlando fade Chicago 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE
38A EX Philly Fade Brooklyn 1.10 to win 2.10 WIN

Tuesday
64B S1 Portland 2.31 to win 2.10
66A O4 Portland 1.10 to win 1.00
38B EX Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.10

that'sall folks

am "interesting idea" but a bitch to track!

**jamesdeuce** · 12-16-13, 11:54 PM

Grinder...I don't know your motivation...but I joined this forum just to say Thank You. You have great ideas and I enjoy reading your thoughts and your systems. You obviously could keep all the ideas to yourself...but I think it's wonderful that you share your knowledge. I don't follow this system or any system to exact specifications but I pick and choose my spots and I get some of my plays from you on a daily basis. The time and effort you put into this is appreciated. Thank You! Good luck and I hope you win a lot of money.

**LakeShow** · 12-17-13, 03:47 AM

Lines jumped to okc-3 and por -5. I jumped on okc -2.5 and por -4.5. Good luck everyone

you have addresses this. But when u say you place wagers towards 5pm, I am Assuming you are referring to eastern standard time?

**Grinder12000** · 12-17-13, 10:41 AM

i dont place MY wagers but its what I use for this system. whatever the odds are in the ODDS link on this site.

on a side note. i was messing around with that idea from above. I'm putting ONE DOLLAR on fading Memphis vs. LALaker if Memphis is a favorite. play Lakers.

the other team is Brooklyn. Both seem rather obvious but . . . .

**Numbersneverlie** · 12-17-13, 02:15 PM

Grinder I love the idea...I am sure the RPI lists the teams in order of strength and weakness in numerical order...this order changes based on whose hot and whose cold. ..which means there are teams between 5-10 and 20-25 who are moving up and who are moving down..lets find the ones moving up and down before they get top 3 RPI or bottom 3 RPI at which that point we move to the next teams

**Numbersneverlie** · 12-17-13, 04:14 PM

Only need to hit 53% to be a winner long term..These strategies have proven for years that you do not even need to chase or double up..they are generally more years than not where total games are above 55-60% winners...with your RPI adjustment I bet we can consistently stay above that 55% threshold

**bgilic** · 12-17-13, 05:34 PM

Grinder, again 63B S1 Portland 2.31 to win 2.10should be
64B S1 Portland 2.31 to win 2.10

Series 64 and not 63

**miczz14** · 12-17-13, 07:08 PM

12 games on wednesday.. any early plays?

**Grinder12000** · 12-17-13, 08:26 PM

I'll have those after the city council meeting later tonight. Couple hours, I'm away from the miracle spread sheet.

**bgilic** · 12-17-13, 08:59 PM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

I'll have those after the city council meeting later tonight. Couple hours, I'm away from the miracle spread sheet.

I thought you would have it memorized by now

**Grinder12000** · 12-17-13, 09:38 PM

12/18/13
S1,H3,O4 = 58-47 +38.04u
EX = 38-19 +33.38u
Tot 72.42u

Results
64B S1 Portland 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE
66A O4 Portland 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE - 1st time Portland has lost 2 in a row ATS
38B EX Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN

Wednesday - BIG day
64C S1 Portland 4.85 to win 4.41
66B O4 Portland 2.31 to win 2.10 ** We will all learn to love Portland
67A H3 Orlando 1.10 to win 1.00 *** 0.00 to win 0.00
35C EX Indiana 4.85 to win 4.41
37C EX Orlando fade Utah 4.85 to win 4.41 *** 3.75 to win 3.41
40A EX Chicago fade Houston 1.10 to win 1.00

*** Best play

Straight wager of the day is Boston pk over Detroit!

NOTE - I have no problem getting nervous starting with game 3 of a chase. I dislike chases. They go against every fiber of my gambling knowledge. But having gone through a few years day by day I'm always amazed when a game 4 wins. . . and massively disappointed when they lose!

**Jeremylynn** · 12-17-13, 11:47 PM

So what's the plan between 67a and 37c? Subtract 1.1 units from the Utah bet and only bet 3.75 units on Utah for 37c?

**Numbersneverlie** · 12-18-13, 11:15 AM

Boston, is that a personal play or a system play?

**Grinder12000** · 12-18-13, 11:49 AM

My personal play like the LAL play the day before. Just putting it out there. Using RPI and who is gaining steam and who is losing steam.

I wouldn't take it seriously. It's a straight wager - not a chase.

**Afterimage** · 12-18-13, 12:05 PM

Mr Grinder, I know you don't advocate teasers, but just to add more action and for increased chaos on our biggest night, I'm also throwing down a three team 8 pt on...

NBA[701] INDIANA

+11½-110 (B+8)

NBA[703] UTAH

+12½-110 (B+8)

NBA[715] PORTLAND

+10-110 (B+8)

Good luck to all tonight! Lock and load!