Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

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  • Grinder12000
    SBR MVP
    • 04-21-11
    • 1809

    #281
    12/14 was updated adding a Philly Fade on the EX system

    Cheesehead - my RPIs are updated every morning. Not too late. I personally have more confidence in the EX system but all seem to be running with the peddle to the metal at the moment

    money management is the most important thing in sports wagering. You get rich in the long run not the short run. It's a lifetime system and the key is to keep increasing your bank every year. Not every week.
    Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-14-13, 09:27 AM.
    Comment
    • Jeremylynn
      SBR High Roller
      • 11-18-13
      • 204

      #282
      Playing blazers not okc right?
      Comment
      • Jeremylynn
        SBR High Roller
        • 11-18-13
        • 204

        #283
        I have a question I jumped in with y'all yesterday. Thread states y'all won with Toronto. Which I know some may have/have not won depending on the line you got. Well I pushed, so in that case do I keep chasing or cut my losses. Same question goes for if I loose and y'all win with a future line
        Comment
        • Grinder12000
          SBR MVP
          • 04-21-11
          • 1809

          #284
          Jeremylynn as far as that game you are in luck as we are still fading Philly. Looking at Philly's upcoming schedule we might be fading Philly for a while if they don't start winning LOL So one way would be to put maybe 1/2 unit on all the philly fades coming up. We MIGHT have 3 or 4 more Philly fades coming up if things work out well.

          As far as point spreads. I use the line that is closest to 5:00PM on

          Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.


          I figure maybe a lot of people place wagers when they get home from work and can't watch all day. In this case you gut unlucky with an early line it looks like.

          As far as future problems like this - I personally have no problems with cutting losses if things don't work out, or sometimes I try to grab a little more on future bets (like Philly fades).
          Comment
          • CheeseHead
            SBR Sharp
            • 12-03-10
            • 439

            #285
            Originally posted by Grinder12000
            12/14 was updated adding a Philly Fade on the EX system

            Cheesehead - my RPIs are updated every morning. Not too late. I personally have more confidence in the EX system but all seem to be running with the peddle to the metal at the moment

            money management is the most important thing in sports wagering. You get rich in the long run not the short run. It's a lifetime system and the key is to keep increasing your bank every year. Not every week.
            But isn't money management pretty much against the idea of Stifler's system? The reason anyone ended up losing a ton on that system last year was because those long chases continuously kept losing. It's hard to consider it good money management when you continue chasing your money & keep losing. If we had just straight-bet everything it would have been a lot easier on the bankroll. It looks like your experiment is lowering the risk a little bit though so far.
            Comment
            • Mako-SBR
              SBR Sharp
              • 10-15-13
              • 492

              #286
              Originally posted by CheeseHead
              But isn't money management pretty much against the idea of Stifler's system? The reason anyone ended up losing a ton on that system last year was because those long chases continuously kept losing. It's hard to consider it good money management when you continue chasing your money & keep losing. If we had just straight-bet everything it would have been a lot easier on the bankroll. It looks like your experiment is lowering the risk a little bit though so far.
              Then straight bet it, problem solved. Anyone involved with Martingale chases is well aware of the risks.

              Sorry you got burned last time, adjust your own strategy accordingly and follow along silently with the rest of us.
              Comment
              • miczz14
                SBR High Roller
                • 01-22-13
                • 146

                #287
                any plays? pls post early :'(
                Comment
                • Grinder12000
                  SBR MVP
                  • 04-21-11
                  • 1809

                  #288
                  12/15/13
                  S1,H3,O4 = 55-44 +37.35u

                  EX = 36-15 +36.00u
                  Tot 73.35u

                  Results
                  60A H3 Miami 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
                  61A S1 Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
                  62A S1 LAL fade Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
                  63A O4 Atl fade NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
                  36A EX Philly fade Portland 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
                  Home Brew Club Christmas party last night - LATE night with way too much beer!

                  SUNDAY
                  64A S1 Portland 1.10 to win 1.00
                  37A EX Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00
                  38A EX Orlando fade Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00

                  Mondays known games

                  60B H3 Miami 2.31 to win 2.1
                  62B S1 LALakers fade Atlanta 2.31 to win 2.1

                  Instead of money management I should have stressed bankroll management. A small difference. Money management has to do with betting and bankroll management is more of your entire betting bucket of money.
                  Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-15-13, 09:16 PM.
                  Comment
                  • LakeShow
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 03-20-10
                    • 472

                    #289
                    Grinder, so we are putting 2 units on okc?
                    Comment
                    • Grinder12000
                      SBR MVP
                      • 04-21-11
                      • 1809

                      #290
                      Correct - it's two different chases so they will diverge after today.
                      Comment
                      • CheeseHead
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 12-03-10
                        • 439

                        #291
                        Originally posted by Grinder12000
                        12/15/13
                        S1,H3,O4 = 55-44 +37.35u

                        EX = 36-15 +36.00u
                        Tot 73.35u



                        Home Brew Club Christmas party last night - LATE night with way too much beer!

                        SUNDAY
                        63A S1 Portland 1.10 to win 1.00
                        37A EX Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00
                        38A EX Orlando fade Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00

                        Mondays known games

                        60B H3 Miami 2.31 to win 2.1
                        62B S1 LALakers fade Atlanta 2.31 to win 2.1

                        Instead of money management I should have stressed bankroll management. A small difference. Money management has to do with betting and bankroll management is more of your entire betting bucket of money.
                        What lines are you getting on these? Feel like if there's line movement there will be the possibility down the road where the system covers but people who are following may not. Sorry if this has already been brought up or covered in this topic before.
                        Comment
                        • Mako-SBR
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 10-15-13
                          • 492

                          #292
                          Originally posted by CheeseHead
                          What lines are you getting on these? Feel like if there's line movement there will be the possibility down the road where the system covers but people who are following may not. Sorry if this has already been brought up or covered in this topic before.
                          Don't quote the picks, it's not necessary.

                          And this is yet another time you've asked a question that's already been talked about or answered. And this question was answered just a few pages ago...Read the thread.
                          Comment
                          • Grinder12000
                            SBR MVP
                            • 04-21-11
                            • 1809

                            #293
                            It's fine - If there is a close game I use the lines here

                            Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.


                            The line NORMALLY is the one closest to 5:00PM - I HATE closing lines as some rich dude will come in and played a $10K bet and the line moves a minute before the game.

                            If there is a majority here that get a bad line I have no problem changing a W to a L or vice versa. I'm not out to prove a system. I'm here to have fun and make money, not pound my chest in greatness! (I do that quietly with no one looking).

                            Don't quote though.
                            Comment
                            • bgilic
                              SBR Hustler
                              • 10-28-13
                              • 96

                              #294
                              Grinder:
                              63A S1 Portland 1.10 to win 1.00

                              Should be 64A since series 63 was yesterday 63A O4 Atl fade NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
                              Comment
                              • CheeseHead
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 12-03-10
                                • 439

                                #295
                                Originally posted by Mako-SBR
                                Don't quote the picks, it's not necessary.

                                And this is yet another time you've asked a question that's already been talked about or answered. And this question was answered just a few pages ago...Read the thread.
                                Coming from a guy who's been on the forum for 2 months. Anger issues or what? Just asked a question buddy, chill.

                                Looks like you just base it off of closing numbers then which works, Grinder. Thanks for the response. GL.
                                Comment
                                • Mako-SBR
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 10-15-13
                                  • 492

                                  #296
                                  Originally posted by CheeseHead
                                  Coming from a guy who's been on the forum for 2 months. Anger issues or what? Just asked a question buddy, chill.

                                  Looks like you just base it off of closing numbers then which works, Grinder. Thanks for the response. GL.
                                  And a user of forums, and the etiquette that goes with them, for nearly 20 years.
                                  Feel free to ask some more questions, happy to help you not lose it all as you did last time.
                                  Comment
                                  • Grinder12000
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 04-21-11
                                    • 1809

                                    #297
                                    12/16/13
                                    S1,H3,O4 = 55-45 +36.25u

                                    EX = 36-17 +33.80u
                                    Tot 70.05u

                                    Results
                                    64A S1 Portland 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST
                                    37A EX Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSER
                                    38A EX Orlando fade Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSER again
                                    Monday yee haw!
                                    60B H3 Miami 2.31 to win 2.10
                                    62B S1 LALfade Atlanta 2.31 to win 2.10
                                    65A H3 LAClippers 1.10 to win 1.00
                                    35B EX Indiana 2.31 to win 2.10
                                    37B EX Orlando fade Chicago 2.31 to win 2.10
                                    38A EX Philly Fade Brooklyn 1.10 to win 2.10


                                    Tuesday Known games
                                    63B S1 Portland
                                    66A O4 Portland
                                    38B EX Oklahoma City

                                    WELL - being a cheesehead you can believe that I'm in good spirits to say the least with the Packer/Cowboy NFL game. Any Dallas fans I can feel your pain . . . no . . I can't, that was a REAL REAL bad loss! Horrible Horrible coaching. I heard the Cowboys have released Jerry Jones

                                    As for the little tiff above - just let me take care of things please. If something really gets to be a pain I can police it, thanks.
                                    Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-16-13, 09:06 AM.
                                    Comment
                                    • Numbersneverlie
                                      SBR Rookie
                                      • 11-19-13
                                      • 17

                                      #298
                                      Seems like the experimental games are hitting better than the chase system
                                      Comment
                                      • Grinder12000
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 04-21-11
                                        • 1809

                                        #299
                                        OK - I'm going to talk this new idea out!

                                        As you know I have this RPI generator which is like a power rating. The same thing used for NCAA football and so forth.

                                        Currently the EX system is picking teams on the top OR bottom and going with or against those hot or cold teams. However I believe there is a flaw but . . . can't complain SO FAR. The problem is once a team is on the top or bottom the linemakers are adjusting the lines.

                                        In blackjack if you can count cards (which I have done) the profits are not when you get a high count, it's GETTING to the high count.

                                        What if I could find teams that were cold and are now becoming hot, the public and linemakers have not caught up yet. So pick bad teams that are getting better to win a 4 game chase and good teams sinking to lose a 4 game fade.

                                        hmmmmm food for thought. Seems like it would be a ton of work.
                                        Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-16-13, 06:17 PM.
                                        Comment
                                        • bgilic
                                          SBR Hustler
                                          • 10-28-13
                                          • 96

                                          #300
                                          Originally posted by Grinder12000
                                          OK - I'm going to talk this new idea out!

                                          As you know I have this RPI generator which is like a power rating. The same thing used for NCAA football and so forth.

                                          Currently the EX system is picking teams on the top OR bottom and going with or against those hot or cold teams. However I believe there is a flaw but . . . can't complain SO FAR. The problem is once a team is on the top or bottom the linemakers are adjusting the lines.

                                          In blackjack if you can count cards (which I have done) the profits are not when you get a high count, it's GETTING to the high count.

                                          What if I could find teams that were cold and are now becoming hot, the public and linemakers have not caught up yet. So pick bad teams that are getting better to win a 4 game chase and good teams sinking to lose a 4 game fade.

                                          hmmmmm food for thought. Seems like it would be a ton of work.
                                          This sounds like very interesting idea Grinder. You might be on to something. We are due for a cold streak in our NBA chase so if we can find a new method I would be all interested.
                                          Comment
                                          • Grinder12000
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 04-21-11
                                            • 1809

                                            #301
                                            12/17/13
                                            S1,H3,O4 = 58-45 +41.45u

                                            EX = 37-19 +31.28u
                                            Tot 72.73u

                                            Results!
                                            60B H3 Miami 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
                                            62B S1 LALfade Atlanta 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
                                            65A H3 LAClippers 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
                                            35B EX Indiana 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE
                                            37B EX Orlando fade Chicago 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE
                                            38A EX Philly Fade Brooklyn 1.10 to win 2.10 WIN
                                            Tuesday
                                            64B S1 Portland 2.31 to win 2.10
                                            66A O4 Portland 1.10 to win 1.00
                                            38B EX Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.10

                                            that'sall folks

                                            am "interesting idea" but a bitch to track!
                                            Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-17-13, 06:16 PM.
                                            Comment
                                            • jamesdeuce
                                              SBR Rookie
                                              • 12-16-13
                                              • 1

                                              #302
                                              Grinder...I don't know your motivation...but I joined this forum just to say Thank You. You have great ideas and I enjoy reading your thoughts and your systems. You obviously could keep all the ideas to yourself...but I think it's wonderful that you share your knowledge. I don't follow this system or any system to exact specifications but I pick and choose my spots and I get some of my plays from you on a daily basis. The time and effort you put into this is appreciated. Thank You! Good luck and I hope you win a lot of money.
                                              Comment
                                              • LakeShow
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 03-20-10
                                                • 472

                                                #303
                                                Lines jumped to okc-3 and por -5. I jumped on okc -2.5 and por -4.5. Good luck everyone

                                                you have addresses this. But when u say you place wagers towards 5pm, I am Assuming you are referring to eastern standard time?
                                                Last edited by LakeShow; 12-17-13, 08:35 AM.
                                                Comment
                                                • Grinder12000
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 04-21-11
                                                  • 1809

                                                  #304
                                                  i dont place MY wagers but its what I use for this system. whatever the odds are in the ODDS link on this site.

                                                  on a side note. i was messing around with that idea from above. I'm putting ONE DOLLAR on fading Memphis vs. LALaker if Memphis is a favorite. play Lakers.

                                                  the other team is Brooklyn. Both seem rather obvious but . . . .
                                                  Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-17-13, 10:48 AM.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Numbersneverlie
                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                    • 11-19-13
                                                    • 17

                                                    #305
                                                    Grinder I love the idea...I am sure the RPI lists the teams in order of strength and weakness in numerical order...this order changes based on whose hot and whose cold. ..which means there are teams between 5-10 and 20-25 who are moving up and who are moving down..lets find the ones moving up and down before they get top 3 RPI or bottom 3 RPI at which that point we move to the next teams
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Numbersneverlie
                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                      • 11-19-13
                                                      • 17

                                                      #306
                                                      Only need to hit 53% to be a winner long term..These strategies have proven for years that you do not even need to chase or double up..they are generally more years than not where total games are above 55-60% winners...with your RPI adjustment I bet we can consistently stay above that 55% threshold
                                                      Comment
                                                      • bgilic
                                                        SBR Hustler
                                                        • 10-28-13
                                                        • 96

                                                        #307
                                                        Grinder, again 63B S1 Portland 2.31 to win 2.10should be
                                                        64B S1 Portland 2.31 to win 2.10

                                                        Series 64 and not 63
                                                        Last edited by bgilic; 12-17-13, 05:50 PM.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • miczz14
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 01-22-13
                                                          • 146

                                                          #308
                                                          12 games on wednesday.. any early plays?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Grinder12000
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 04-21-11
                                                            • 1809

                                                            #309
                                                            I'll have those after the city council meeting later tonight. Couple hours, I'm away from the miracle spread sheet.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • bgilic
                                                              SBR Hustler
                                                              • 10-28-13
                                                              • 96

                                                              #310
                                                              Originally posted by Grinder12000
                                                              I'll have those after the city council meeting later tonight. Couple hours, I'm away from the miracle spread sheet.
                                                              I thought you would have it memorized by now
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Grinder12000
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 04-21-11
                                                                • 1809

                                                                #311
                                                                12/18/13
                                                                S1,H3,O4 = 58-47 +38.04u

                                                                EX = 38-19 +33.38u
                                                                Tot 72.42u

                                                                Results
                                                                64B S1 Portland 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE
                                                                66A O4 Portland 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE - 1st time Portland has lost 2 in a row ATS
                                                                38B EX Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
                                                                Wednesday - BIG day
                                                                64C S1 Portland 4.85 to win 4.41
                                                                66B O4 Portland 2.31 to win 2.10 ** We will all learn to love Portland
                                                                67A H3 Orlando 1.10 to win 1.00 *** 0.00 to win 0.00
                                                                35C EX Indiana 4.85 to win 4.41
                                                                37C EX Orlando fade Utah 4.85 to win 4.41 *** 3.75 to win 3.41
                                                                40A EX Chicago fade Houston 1.10 to win 1.00

                                                                *** Best play

                                                                Straight wager of the day is Boston pk over Detroit!

                                                                NOTE - I have no problem getting nervous starting with game 3 of a chase. I dislike chases. They go against every fiber of my gambling knowledge. But having gone through a few years day by day I'm always amazed when a game 4 wins. . . and massively disappointed when they lose!
                                                                Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-18-13, 09:13 AM.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Jeremylynn
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 11-18-13
                                                                  • 204

                                                                  #312
                                                                  So what's the plan between 67a and 37c? Subtract 1.1 units from the Utah bet and only bet 3.75 units on Utah for 37c?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Numbersneverlie
                                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                                    • 11-19-13
                                                                    • 17

                                                                    #313
                                                                    Boston, is that a personal play or a system play?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Grinder12000
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 04-21-11
                                                                      • 1809

                                                                      #314
                                                                      My personal play like the LAL play the day before. Just putting it out there. Using RPI and who is gaining steam and who is losing steam.

                                                                      I wouldn't take it seriously. It's a straight wager - not a chase.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Afterimage
                                                                        SBR Rookie
                                                                        • 09-07-13
                                                                        • 44

                                                                        #315
                                                                        Mr Grinder, I know you don't advocate teasers, but just to add more action and for increased chaos on our biggest night, I'm also throwing down a three team 8 pt on...

                                                                        <small>NBA</small>[701] INDIANA +11½-110 (B+8)
                                                                        <small>NBA</small>[703] UTAH +12½-110 (B+8)
                                                                        <small>NBA</small>[715] PORTLAND +10-110 (B+8)

                                                                        Good luck to all tonight! Lock and load!
                                                                        Comment
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