Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

[bgilic]

Did I mention how much I hate Portland!!!!!

[Grinder12000]

I'm pretty sure that is it for chasing Portland. I can now relax and hope they lose every game AND I loath the moron linemakers.

[Grinder12000]

12/31/13
S1,H3,O4 = 72-65 +9.22u
EX = 56-35 +36.60u
Tot 45.82u

results
77B H3 Charlotte fade Utah 2.31 to win 2.1 PUSH again - the early lines are winning!
82A S1 Portland fade New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN whoo hoo
74C S1 New Orleans fade Portland 4.85 to win 4.41 Lose
44D EX Portland 10.19 to win 9.26 Lose
57A EX Miami 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
83A S1 Miami fade Denver 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose

Note - The Miami line was -2.5 it ZOOMED to -5 about an hour before game time

jumping back on the horse Tuesday - New Years Eve

81B H3 San Antonio 2.31 to win 2.1
84A S1 Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 - a NEW team !!
55B EX San Antonio 2.31 to win 2.1
57A EX Milwaukee fade LA Lakers 1.10 to win 1.00
58A EX Brooklyn fade San Antonio 1.10 to win 1.00
59A EX Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00

Come on San Antonio

New Orleans fade "D "game will be Jan 1st in super cold Minnesota (100 miles south we were at -14F last night and our high was 1F . . .that is -25C and -18C for you odd balls)

[Jeremylynn]

Cleveland and Indiana are playing each other...just a heads up

[Grinder12000]

Thanks. Sort of counts down the amount of plays

[Jeremylynn]

Yea it does. But I really like the spurs play. Not just being a Texas homer, IM a rockets fan

[Grinder12000]

My brain keeps wondering about all of the canceling games and multiple play games. There are 30 teams right? And we keep playing like 5 of those.

I do have some ideas for non streak teams which there are a few of. They don't win a lot and don't lose a lot but they never go on runs.

[Jeremylynn]

With the non streak teams...is that ats or ml?

[Grinder12000]

A combination of streak length (ATS) and standard deviation from each streak. so a team that goes

WLWLWLWLLLLLLLLWLWLWLWL

looks GREAT until you hit the LLLLLLLLLLL

I tried this with MLB but the lines were the problem betting -300 and so forth.

Right now San Antonio, Minnesota, Golden State and Washington are the teams to bet to break a streak HOWEVER - are we predicting the future? or predicting the past! Time to dive into the numbers :-) I believe this type of system you go contrainian.

So as for today we are playing S.A. to win because they are the least streakiest team and lost their last game (ATS).

Something I've been thinking about is making all streaks above 4, =5. So a streak of 8 would be a 5. I don't care what happens after 4 and a big number skews the StDv.

So using THIS theory

PLAY San Antonio
PLAY Golden State

because they both lost their last game ATS.

Cleveland is the streakiest team.

[Grinder12000]

01/01/14
S1,H3,O4 = 73-66 +10.32u
EX = 59-36 +39.69u
Tot 49.92u

OH - I REALLY hate you Portland

Results
81B H3 San Antonio 2.31 to win 2.1 WIN
84A S1 Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 - a NEW team LOSE
55B EX San Antonio 2.31 to win 2.1 WIN
57A EX Milwaukee fade LA Lakers 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
58A EX Brooklyn fade San Antonio 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
59A EX Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

Wednesday

77B H4 Charlotte fade LAClippers 2.31 to win 2.10
85A H4 New Orleans fade Minnesota 1.10 to win 1.00
74D S3 New Orleans fade Minnesota 10.19 to win 9.26
56B EX Philly fade Denver 2.31 to win 2.10
60A EX Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00

[Grinder12000]

ADDED

60A EX Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00

[Grinder12000]

01/02/14
S1,H3,O4 = 76-66 +22.68u
EX = 59-38 +37.49u
Tot 60.17u

Everybody calm down now - let's not be so chatty!! It WAS only a 10.26 unit win after all.

Results
77B H4 Charlotte fade LAClippers 2.31 to win 2.10 Win
85A H4 New Orleans fade Minnesota 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
74D S3 New Orleans fade Minnesota 10.19 to win 9.26 WIN
56B EX Philly fade Denver 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose
60A EX Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose

Thursday prelim's


83B S3 Miami fade Golden State 2.31 to win 2.10 ***
84B S3 Cleveland 2.31 to win 2.10
86A H4 Sacramento 1.10 to win 1.00
87A S3 Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00***
56C EX Philly fade Sacramento 4.85 to win 4.41
57B EX Milwaukee fade Utah 2.31 to win 2.10
61A EX Miami 1.00 to win 1.00 ***
62A EX San Antonio 1.10 to win 1.00

Just saw the forecast for the Green Bay Packer game. High will be -3F (or -19C)

A few trends
Philly is 178 -223 ATS after two ATS wins since 1990 - that is actually pretty significant.
Sacramento is 118-80 OVER after 3 ATS wins
Chicago is 93-59 -4 to -5.5 After 1 loss


16229

[Jeremylynn]

Way to guy guys!!! Big day today as we'll.

[Grinder12000]

You know I was looking at that

Philly is 178 -223 ATS after two ATS wins since 1990

And I think we are missing the big picture here and I'm going to look into this deeper. I went back to 1990, but maybe things have changed since 1990 so starting with the year 2000 here is what Philly does AFTER an ATS win

AFTER 1 ATS win Philly wins 45.2% ATS
AFTER 2 ATS win Philly wins 40.5% ATS
AFTER 3 ATS win Philly wins 41.1% ATS
AFTER 4 ATS win Philly wins 58.3% ATS
AFTER 5 ATS win Philly wins 60%% ATS
AFTER 6 ATS win Philly wins 50.0% ATS
AFTER 7 ATS win Philly wins 67.7% ATS

So just fading Philly after an ATS win in a 4 game chase that is a 22 to 1 chance of winning. hmmmmmmm

After they lose ATS it's pretty much a 50/50 or a 16-1 chance (we need 18.45-1 to break even).

I think I just found a better way to back "test" the S system.

A side note here - Instead of looking at "what happens after a team wins/loses 3 games" I did better. What happens when a team loses 2 or 3 or 4 games AND what do they do with their upcoming schedule and how does that team react WHEN in that situation. It correctly predicted Portland would lose a number in a row. The chance of Portland WINNING all 4 games was 1 out of 34. The chance of Portland losing all 4 games was 1 out of 10. A much better chance of them losing 1 game then winning one game

[Grinder12000]

Advanced S3

When I took Stifflers idea and decided to run with it with my own ideas I felt I could make it better. Well with some more work I think I came up with a formula for Advanced S3.

I know when you guys see someone that is relatively hot you worry that he will all of a sudden disappear which is why I tried to list what I was doing so maybe you can come up with your own ideas.

ANYWAY - Even though the current S3 system is fine I've made some major improvements. I have NOT back tested any of this year but in theory it should be better.

These are the plays for tonight. I won't include this in any stats but want to track - at least until I prove it fails!

PLAY Brooklyn
Fade Charlotte
Fade Philly ***
Fade Sacramento ***

This takes into account scheduling and how teams play home and away when they start a streak.

For instance

AFTER Philly 2 wins ATS
AWAY win pct in game 3 is 36.8%
After Philly wins 3 ATS
HOME win pct in game 3 is 47.6%
After Philly wins 4 ATS
AWAY win pct in game 4 is 41.7%
After Philly wins 5 ATS
AWAY win pct in game 4 is 50.7%

SO . . . . .(368*.476*.417*.500) = .0365
(1/.0365) = 27.39 (means 1 out of 27.39 times Philly will win all 4 games)
27.39 - 18.45 = +8.84 units we need to win 1 out of 18.46 to profit

Playing this chase we should be +8.84 in the long run

Some teams will start a chase after 2 games, some 3 games and some 4 games. Even 1 game can start a good streak (philly is a team like that).


I gotta get a life :-)

[Afterimage]

Interesting. Greatly appreciate all the hard work and the transparency. I've had more fun betting NBA this season than ever before.

[Mako-SBR]

The improved S3 technique just made a "bush league" Brooklyn bet the easiest winner of the night...wow.

Great job as usual Grinder.

[Grinder12000]

But I could be wrong about Philly. Too many brews. See ya in the morning! Mako will take back his Betpoint.

BTW - I do appreciate betpoints - sort of like high fives. I was looking at Stifflers thread last year - he went 1-3 one night and got like 15 betpoints WTF??

Had a good friend that moved away to New York (17 hour drive) come buy tonight with his future fiance', don't trust myself on picks at this late hour. See ya in 7 hours. 7:00 ( we are -6 GMZ)

[miczz14]

anything for fri?

[Grinder12000]

01/03/14
S1,H3,O4 = 79-67 +26.78u
EX = 60-41 +32.54u
Tot 59.32u

results
83B S3 Miami fade Golden State 2.31 to win 2.10 Win
84B S3 Cleveland 2.31 to win 2.10 Win
86A H4 Sacramento 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost
87A S3 Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
56C EX Philly fade Sacramento 4.85 to win 4.41 Lost
57B EX Milwaukee fade Utah 2.31 to win 2.10 Win
61A EX Miami 1.00 to win 1.00 Lost
62A EX San Antonio 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost

Friday

88A S3 Utah 1.10 to win 1.00
63A EX Boston fade New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00

Super Advanced S3 (SAS3) +1.90

results
PLAY Brooklyn WIN
Fade Charlotte WIN
Fade Philly Lose
Fade Sacramento WIN

Friday

A Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00
A Golden State fade Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00
A Houston fade New York 1.10 to win 1.00


i now have a twitter account. @Grinder12000 I can tweet when picks are up and so forth. Not that I'm a twitter genius.

[Jeremylynn]

Grinder just wanted to say thanks for putting in all this work for the thread. Much appreciated.

[Grinder12000]

Of course we all know who Philly plays in the "D" game tomorrow. PORTLAND.

again, getting that early line is a key. n.o is an official loss.

[Grinder12000]

01/04/14 corrected
S1,H3,O4 = 79-68 +25.68u
EX = 60-42 +31.44u
SAS3 6-1 +4.90u *not included in Tot
Tot 57.12u

Results
88A S3 Utah 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
63A EX Boston fade New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST
SAS3
A Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
A Golden State fade Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
A Houston fade New York 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

Saturday's early known games

86B H3 Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.10
88A H3 Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00
56D EX Philly fade Portland 10.19 to win 9.26
60B EX Indiana 2.31 to win 2.10 **(1)
61B EX Miami 2.31 to win 2.1
62B EX San Antonio 2.31 to win 2.10

SAS3
"A" New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00 **(1)
"B" Philly fade Portland 2.31 to win 2.10
"A" Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00
"A" New Orleans fade Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00**(1)

i have not look for more cancel games yet

**(1) Indiana 2.31 to win 2.10 skip New Orleans

Get bets in early - seems all the close games the early wagers are winning

Twitter @Grinder12000. Sports tweets

[miczz14]

sas3 looking good

[Grinder12000]

Let me know how you guys did with Brooklyn.

[miczz14]

portland...........

[Grinder12000]

01/05/14
S1,H3,O4 = 80-69 +24.37u
EX = 64-43 +31.55u
SAS3 9-2 +5.59u *not included in Tot
Tot 55.92u

Straight betting ALL games 153-114 = +27.6 units!

Results
86B H3 Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE
88A H3 Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
56D EX Philly fade Portland 10.19 to win 9.26 LOSE
60B EX Indiana 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
61B EX Miami 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
62B EX San Antonio 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN

SAS3
"A" New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
"B" Philly fade Portland 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE
"A" Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
"A" New Orleans fade Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

Sunday Prelims

63B EX fade Boston Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.10
66A EX Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00
65A EX fade Cleveland Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00

SAS3

"A" Memphis 1.10 to win 1.00

That is it

Have I mentioned how much I loath Portland?

Twitter @Grinder12000

[miczz14]

boston is playing okc and there is no orl game on sunday

[Grinder12000]

EX picks corrected because miczz is SO picky! :-)

Taking all the games on their own in straight betting we would be up 27.6 units! NOT BAD!! It would out to be just about 0.1 units per game played!

[Grinder12000]

There was some problems with how I'm posting picks

takei 56D for example.

should I say

fade philly. Portland. Instead?

Unless I hear of a problem I'll switch things around a little.

[Mako-SBR]

Either format is good Grinder, honestly I just look at the boldface team...

[Grinder12000]

01/06/14
S1,H3,O4 = 80-69 +24.37u
EX = 66-44 +33.55u
SAS3 10-3 +7.69u corrected
All posted games Tot 65.61u
Straight betting ALL games 156-116 = +28.4 units!
* we shall see how long all of these totals stay up when things go south!

Results
63B EX fade Boston Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
66A EX Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
65A EX fade Cleveland Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE

SAS3

"A" Memphis 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

Monday known games

67A EX fade Orlando LA Clippers 1.10 to win 1.00

SAS3

"C" fade Philly Minnesota 4.85 to win 4.41
"A" fade Orlando LA Clippers 1.10 to win 1.00

That's it - BIG Tuesday card with 12 games being played. I have 10 games lined up!

Twitter @Grinder12000

Any questions from new people feel free to PM me!

[Jeremylynn]

Loving both plays for today....let's build of the bank for tomorrow

[Grinder12000]

01/07/14
S1,H3,O4 = 80-69 +24.37u
EX = 67-44 +34.55u
SAS3 11-3 +11.00u. Corrected
All posted games Tot72.02u
Straight betting ALL games 158-116!
* we shall see how long all of these totals stay up when things go south!

Results
67A EX fade Orlando LA Clippers 1.10 to win 1.00 Win

SAS3

"C" fade Philly Minnesota 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN
"A" fade Orlando LA Clippers 1.10 to win 1.00 Win

Big Tuesday
86C S3 Sacramento 4.84 to win 4.41
88B H3 Utah 2.31 to win 2.10

65B EX fade Cleveland Philly 2.31 to win 2.10 ***(1) or 1.21 to win 1.10
68A EX fade Boston Denver 1.10 to win 1.00
69A EX Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00
70A EX fade Milwaukee Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00

SAS3 - no numbers - I don't want to jinx it
"A" fade Chicago Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00
"A" fade Philly Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(1) or skip
"A" Memphis 1.10 to win 1.00
"A" Washington 1.10 to win 1.00
"A" Dallas 1.10 to win 1.00

Did I miss any games? Good Grief

It's 10;00 at night -16F wind chill -37F (-26C -38C) so at least it's warmer then last night.

Twitter @Grinder12000

small totals correction.

[samcro1]

Thanks grinder, we really appreciate all your hard work.