Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

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  • Grinder12000
    SBR MVP
    • 04-21-11
    • 1809
    #351
    In my REAL life I'm a fine art photographer (after being an in the trenches senior analyst for 25 years) and I want to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and let's kick so NBA ass going forward.

    This is a house in our area that I photogized last night -

      Comment
      • Grinder12000
        SBR MVP
        • 04-21-11
        • 1809
        #352
        12/26again/13
        S1,H3,O4 = 63-58 +8.07u
        EX = 47-28 +37.68u
        Tot 45.75u

        Results
        75A O4 Miami 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
        42C EX Chicago fade Brooklyn 4.85 to win LOSE
        45B EX Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
        49A EX San Antonio 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
        50A EX Brooklyn fade Chicago 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
        51A EX NYKnicks fade Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
        The downward trend continues!

        Thursday

        66D O4 Portland 10.19 to win 9.26
        76A O4 Atlanta fade Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00
        44B EX I AM SO SICK OF PORTLAND! 2.31 to win 2.10
        49B EX San Antonio 2.31 to win 2.10

        That's all

        OK - looking for bright points to ease stress. Portland is a "B" pick in the EX system. Chases in the EX are 24-17 over all and take away the "A" games are 11-4. "D" games in O4 are 2-1 so if you need some sunshine there it is.

        Portland has gone OVER 13 of the last 14. The Clippers have gone UNDER 7 of the last 10.

        Bet with your brain and not your heart.
        Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-26-13, 08:20 AM.
          Comment
          • miczz14
            SBR High Roller
            • 01-22-13
            • 146
            #353
            feeling confident for por covering tom?

            damn 2 D bets are coming in a few days, orl and chi fade
              Comment
              • Grinder12000
                SBR MVP
                • 04-21-11
                • 1809
                #354
                Yea, we are in turbulent times for sure. No I'm never confidant on any bet but Portland has had some days off, clippers played last night and it's a big home game.
                  Comment
                  • Grinder12000
                    SBR MVP
                    • 04-21-11
                    • 1809
                    #355
                    Home Court Advantage . . or Away Court Disadvantage since 2010

                    Just did some crunching for the last 300 games for each team looking at MOV (Margin of Victory . . or loss) home and away.

                    Here is the Advantage/Disadvantage for each team

                    Boston 3.8
                    New York 2.5
                    Philadelphia 2.8
                    Brooklyn 3.3
                    Toronto 3.4
                    Chicago 3.9
                    Indiana 4.4
                    Milwaukee 1.7
                    Detroit 2.8
                    Cleveland 2.2
                    Miami 3.1
                    Orlando 2.2
                    Atlanta 1.4
                    Charlotte 3.0
                    Washington 4.1
                    Los Angeles (Lk) 3.8
                    Phoenix 2.7
                    Golden State 3.1
                    Los Angeles (Cl) 4.1
                    Sacramento 3.2
                    San Antonio 3.6
                    Dallas 2.8
                    Memphis 3.3
                    New Orleans 2.0
                    Houston 3.7
                    Oklahoma City 3.2
                    Denver 3.8
                    Portland 4.0
                    Utah 4.1
                    Minnesota 2.3
                    What I was looking at was Portland's advantage and the Clippers disadvantage. 4.0 to -4.1 which I'm hoping the linemakers think the betting public use 3.0 or something so we get a free point.
                    Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-26-13, 05:47 PM.
                      Comment
                      • Grinder12000
                        SBR MVP
                        • 04-21-11
                        • 1809
                        #356
                        12/27/13
                        S1,H3,O4 = 64-59 -1.12u***
                        EX = 48-30 +37.47u
                        Tot 36.35u

                        *** I do not like the way these systems are running and am rethinking their valid-ness.

                        Being barely above .500 will bring you nothing but headaches. I for one am dropping my wagers greatly on the S1, H3 and O4s.                         Play at your own risk (of course). I might drop these totally unless I hear otherwise but am debating. The reason is I don't want people following blindly on something I feel uncomfortable with.

                        The EX system - Being +15.0 units straight betting on the EX shows promise.

                        Results
                        66D O4 Portland 10.19 to win 9.26 penetrate
                        76A O4 Atlanta fade Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
                        44B EX I AM SO SICK OF PORTLAND! 2.31 to win 2.10 NO!!
                        49B EX San Antonio 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
                        Friday - day two of the "D" game trifecta

                        67D H1 Orlando 10.19 to win 9.26
                        73C S1 Charlotte 4.85 to win 4.41
                        75B S1 Miami 2.31 to win 2.1
                        78B S1??? N.O. fade Denver (did I miss a game on the 23rd?) 2.31 to win 2.1
                        47B EX Milwaukee fade Brooklyn 2.31 to win 2.10 ***
                        52A EX Brooklyn fade Milwaukee 1.10 to win 1.00 ***


                        *** Best way is to 1.21 to win 1.10 on Brooklyn
                        Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-27-13, 08:30 AM.
                          Comment
                          • bgilic
                            SBR Hustler
                            • 10-28-13
                            • 96
                            #357
                            I ended up with -4.5 line on Portland. Just perfect.
                              Comment
                              • alexknyc
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 03-22-11
                                • 861
                                #358
                                Originally posted by bgilic
                                I ended up with -4.5 line on Portland. Just perfect.
                                You and me both. Saw the line dropped to -4 later in the day, did it close there?
                                  Comment
                                  • Grinder12000
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 04-21-11
                                    • 1809
                                    #359
                                    Closed at 4.5. Was down to 3.5 for a while.i had half at 4 and half at 4.5

                                    the nba equivalant of an empty netter. Meaningless 27 foot 3 pointer with 2 seconds to play
                                    Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-27-13, 07:40 AM.
                                      Comment
                                      • Grinder12000
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 04-21-11
                                        • 1809
                                        #360
                                        NOTE - changes to the plays

                                        *** Best way is to 1.21 to win 1.10 on Brooklyn

                                        *** I do not like the way these systems are running and am rethinking their valid-ness.

                                        Being barely above .500 will bring you nothing but headaches. I for one am dropping my wagers greatly on the S1, H3 and O4s.                                         Play at your own risk (of course). I might drop these totally unless I hear otherwise but am debating. The reason is I don't want people following blindly on something I feel uncomfortable with.

                                        The EX system - Being +15.0 units straight betting on the EX shows promise.
                                          Comment
                                          • Afterimage
                                            SBR Rookie
                                            • 09-07-13
                                            • 44
                                            #361
                                            Grinder, I believe the original idea was to not lose money and cap each chase at three games (max loss around 10 units). At some point did the rules change?

                                            I've been having a blast with this. Hoping it doesn't blow up quite yet.
                                              Comment
                                              • Mako-SBR
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 10-15-13
                                                • 492
                                                #362
                                                Grinder: No cold feet, continue to post all the plays please. Particularly because the system was due for a correction and we're likely through it now.

                                                Remember that no one is following blindly, you have silent lurkers in here betting the system straight (and well up btw), you have lurkers not even beginning the chase until the "B" games out of safety concerns, etc, etc, etc. There's far less at stake for most SBR players than it would appear, and it's not their first rodeo with a chase either.

                                                Keep up the great work, post all the plays, and thanks again for doing what you do. Let's see it through to the end of the season and we'll evaluate everything then.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Grinder12000
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 04-21-11
                                                    • 1809
                                                    #363
                                                    Awesome,that is what I wanted to hear. I keep thinking of playing the originals chases as a 3 game chase as opposed to a 4 game ( but listing all 4).

                                                    BTW. Portland will by a O4 fade chase. You can never have enough Portland games I say.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • miczz14
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 01-22-13
                                                        • 146
                                                        #364
                                                        C and D bet to save the day!

                                                        @grinder

                                                        i think EX needs some work. even good teams can lose 4 straight spreads and if that happens we lose money by following.. maybe if the good team had 1 or 2 lose ATS we then start the chase?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Jeremylynn
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 11-18-13
                                                            • 204
                                                            #365
                                                            That's the way to start the night off...big weight off the back with Orlando and bobcats.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Grinder12000
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 04-21-11
                                                                • 1809
                                                                #366
                                                                You think EX needs work? It's winning 61%! I'm not messing with 61% system.


                                                                I AM tweaking the H1 system. Taking the lakers out and adding some away fade teams starting tomorrow.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • miczz14
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 01-22-13
                                                                    • 146
                                                                    #367
                                                                    61% is good but im just saying teams CAN lose 4 spread in a row
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Grinder12000
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 04-21-11
                                                                        • 1809
                                                                        #368
                                                                        61% is good but im just saying teams CAN lose 4 spread in a row
                                                                        OH LOL I think we have witnessed that! No worry's! You may or may not have noticed some hot and cold teams that are beating or losing to the spread have not been on the EX because of scheduling or opponent weirdness. That is why I like the EX, because I have some say in the matter. Plus the fact that every series I learn a little more. Human artificial intelligence!

                                                                        ACTUALLY I wonder if the best teams are .500 teams but maybe they can be pushed one way or the other too easily.

                                                                        Lost the N.O. fade - I swear we missed the 12/23/13 "B" game - good thing! We have No fade "C" tomorrow in S1.
                                                                        Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-27-13, 10:45 PM.
                                                                          Comment
                                                                          • Mako-SBR
                                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                                            • 10-15-13
                                                                            • 492
                                                                            #369
                                                                            Originally posted by miczz14
                                                                            61% is good but im just saying teams CAN lose 4 spread in a row
                                                                            Uhh, of course they can, that's why it's called gambling.

                                                                            Dont change a thing Grinder, 61% is fantastic by any definition. Actually I've been surprised the EX games have performed so well for being relatively untested.
                                                                              Comment
                                                                              • Grinder12000
                                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                                • 04-21-11
                                                                                • 1809
                                                                                #370
                                                                                12/28/13
                                                                                S1,H3,O4 = 66-61 +7.96u +10.08 last night
                                                                                EX = 49-31 +38.47u
                                                                                Tot 46.43u

                                                                                Action Saturday! HELL YEA!

                                                                                74B S1 N.O. fade Houston 2.31 to win 2.10
                                                                                75C O4 Miami 4.85 to win 4.41***
                                                                                77A S1 Charlotte fade Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00
                                                                                78A O4 Portland fade Miami 1.10 to win 1.00***
                                                                                53C EX Portland 4.85 to win 4.41 ***
                                                                                79A O4 Atlanta fade Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00

                                                                                42D EX Chicago fade Dallas 10.19 to win 9.26
                                                                                52B EX Brooklyn fade Indiana 2.31 to win 2.10
                                                                                54A EX Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00
                                                                                53A EX Philly fade Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00
                                                                                55A EX Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00
                                                                                56A EX Milwaukee fade Minnesota 1.10 to win 1.oo

                                                                                *** if you are playing along with our home game the bast way to play the game is

                                                                                Miami 1.10 to win 1.00 Do not play 75C O4, 53C EX

                                                                                COME ON DALLAS
                                                                                Since Oct 30 2012 Dallas is
                                                                                35-20 ATS away
                                                                                13-3 ATS with lines -2 to -3.5
                                                                                34-19after 1 loss
                                                                                8-3 after 1 home game
                                                                                11-4 OVER after 1 loss

                                                                                Chicago is

                                                                                24-37 after 1 away game
                                                                                19-39 ATS at home
                                                                                4-14 UNDER as a dog of 2 to 3.5

                                                                                all signs point to Dallas
                                                                                Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-28-13, 12:06 PM.
                                                                                  Comment
                                                                                  • Grinder12000
                                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                                    • 04-21-11
                                                                                    • 1809
                                                                                    #371
                                                                                    NOTE - added

                                                                                    55A EX Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00
                                                                                    56A EX Milwaukee fade Minnesota 1.10 to win 1.00
                                                                                    --------------------------------------------
                                                                                    A method to my madness.

                                                                                    EX system - RPI explained

                                                                                    All based on a winning Pct. However Winning PCT are calculated as follows.

                                                                                    A road win is weighted as 1.4 and a road loss is weighted as 0.6. Likewise, a home win is weighted as 0.6, and a home loss is weighted as 1.4. This holes for ALL winning pct

                                                                                    Thus

                                                                                    Team A is 4-1 (win percentage = .800)
                                                                                    Team A's opponents are 12-8 (win percentage = .600)
                                                                                    Team A's opponent’s opponents are 64-16 (win percentage = .800)

                                                                                    so

                                                                                    RPI = (0.25 * .800) + (0.5 * .600) + (0.25 * .800)

                                                                                    The teams I pick are on the bottom or top of the RPIs and must be +.600 or -.400.

                                                                                    I use 10 games non-balanced (they can have more home or away). 10 games is a little over 2 weeks. I feel teams change in 2 weeks so I don't want to go farther out.

                                                                                    Then I look at their upcoming schedule. Good teams can not play 3 road games of the next 4 and bad teams can not play 3 home games. I could make this stricter but . . . . so far so good.

                                                                                    I've been playing with if teams are getting better or worse but have not figured out how many games I should look at . . . plus . . . I think I have enough picks the way it is.

                                                                                    H1s are getting an upgrade.

                                                                                    I'm tightening the screws a little on chases but loosening a little on fades. LALakers will no longer be an H1 chase (they are truly horrible in H1s). But I'm starting to add select teams in H1 fades. Golden State, Charlotte and New3 Orleans will be faded in H1 now when playing 4 on the road.

                                                                                    As I said in the beginning - this is a work in progress.

                                                                                    O4 problems

                                                                                    Well - Portland was a bitch in O4. They are now an O4 fade. They were pretty even in chasing or fading in past records and being a contrairian in MOST gambling situations I went against the grain and got burned. Now they are a fade when it comes to O4s.
                                                                                    Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-28-13, 02:54 PM.
                                                                                      Comment
                                                                                      • Jeremylynn
                                                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                                                        • 11-18-13
                                                                                        • 204
                                                                                        #372
                                                                                        Not playing 77a and 79a right?
                                                                                          Comment
                                                                                          • Grinder12000
                                                                                            SBR MVP
                                                                                            • 04-21-11
                                                                                            • 1809
                                                                                            #373
                                                                                            HA - didn't even notice - correct. I guess YOUR not! LOL I focus so much on WHO to play I don't notice who they are playing.

                                                                                            This is when the bookie looks at my card and calls me an idiot!
                                                                                              Comment
                                                                                              • keel44
                                                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                                                • 08-01-09
                                                                                                • 3363
                                                                                                #374
                                                                                                I got a 4 game chase you might be interested in. I have not back tested this. I have looked at many many teams this year and last. With the naked eye, it seems pretty darn good.

                                                                                                Bet against a team ATS that scored 100 or more points 3 games in a row regardless of winning or losing. Recount the 3 games after your chase is over if that team continues to score 100 or more points during the 4 game chase.

                                                                                                This seems to be profitable with a 4 game chase, maybe profitable as well with a 3 game chase or even straight betting until you get a loss. I know this year you would have lost 2 times on a 4 game chase, but I counted many wins. I also see lot of wins. Maybe you could back test?
                                                                                                Last edited by keel44; 12-28-13, 04:12 PM.
                                                                                                  Comment
                                                                                                  • Grinder12000
                                                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                                                    • 04-21-11
                                                                                                    • 1809
                                                                                                    #375
                                                                                                    86 to 56 going into the 4th. Starting to feel like there MIGHT be a chance to cover 2.5. But will wait.



                                                                                                    oh man. 86 to 58 now. Getting stressed.

                                                                                                    WTF. Dallas has not scores in over 4 minutes.
                                                                                                    Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-28-13, 09:57 PM.
                                                                                                      Comment
                                                                                                      • Grinder12000
                                                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                                                        • 04-21-11
                                                                                                        • 1809
                                                                                                        #376
                                                                                                        12/29/13
                                                                                                        S1,H3,O4 = 69-62 +13.27u
                                                                                                        EX = 55-32 +47.99u
                                                                                                        Tot 61.26u

                                                                                                        Results
                                                                                                        74B S1 N.O. fade Houston 2.31 to win 2.10 PUSH **
                                                                                                        75C O4 Miami 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN
                                                                                                        77A S1 Charlotte fade Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST
                                                                                                        78A O4 Portland fade Miami 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
                                                                                                        53C EX Portland 4.85 to win 4.41 LOST of Course
                                                                                                        79A O4 Atlanta fade Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
                                                                                                        42D EX Chicago fade Dallas 10.19 to win 9.26 WIN
                                                                                                        52B EX Brooklyn fade Indiana 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
                                                                                                        54A EX Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
                                                                                                        53A EX Philly fade Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
                                                                                                        55A EX Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
                                                                                                        56A EX Milwaukee fade Minnesota 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
                                                                                                        ** If you got your bets in early (which seems to be a winning formula of late) you got -8.5 and won. The official line was -9. For the winners N.O. play 6 of the next 7 on the road - just sayin. And they play PORTLAND (my favorite team) next

                                                                                                        Sunday
                                                                                                        80A H3 Golden State fade Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00
                                                                                                        81A H3 San Antonio 1.10 to win 1.00
                                                                                                        82A O4 Atlanta fade Orlando 1.10 to win 1.00

                                                                                                        55A EX San Antonio 1.10 to win 1.00
                                                                                                        56A EX Philly fade LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00

                                                                                                        Nice size News Years Eve ticket in EX
                                                                                                        Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-29-13, 10:59 AM.
                                                                                                          Comment
                                                                                                          • Mako-SBR
                                                                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                                                                            • 10-15-13
                                                                                                            • 492
                                                                                                            #377
                                                                                                            Great night, thanks Grinder.
                                                                                                              Comment
                                                                                                              • Jeremylynn
                                                                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                                                                • 11-18-13
                                                                                                                • 204
                                                                                                                #378
                                                                                                                Money money money mooooneyyyy!!!!!!
                                                                                                                  Comment
                                                                                                                  • Jeremylynn
                                                                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                                                                    • 11-18-13
                                                                                                                    • 204
                                                                                                                    #379
                                                                                                                    With a night like last night I'm tempted to go buy some new ping irons.
                                                                                                                      Comment
                                                                                                                      • Afterimage
                                                                                                                        SBR Rookie
                                                                                                                        • 09-07-13
                                                                                                                        • 44
                                                                                                                        #380
                                                                                                                        Awesome Saturday! I take great pleasure in making money betting against Portland. Blazers must be destroyed!
                                                                                                                          Comment
                                                                                                                          • Grinder12000
                                                                                                                            SBR MVP
                                                                                                                            • 04-21-11
                                                                                                                            • 1809
                                                                                                                            #381
                                                                                                                            NOTE added

                                                                                                                            82A O4 Atlanta fade Orlando 1.10 to win 1.00
                                                                                                                            56A EX Philly fade LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00

                                                                                                                            Problem with the Blazers is they keep winning but losing ATS.

                                                                                                                            They have one more EX "D" game and then we are betting against them again in S1. Their 3-point shooting is the key.

                                                                                                                            Fading in S1 and chasing in EX Miami coming up.
                                                                                                                            Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-29-13, 11:00 AM.
                                                                                                                              Comment
                                                                                                                              • Grinder12000
                                                                                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                                                                                • 04-21-11
                                                                                                                                • 1809
                                                                                                                                #382
                                                                                                                                12/30/13
                                                                                                                                S1,H3,O4 = 71-63 +14.17u
                                                                                                                                EX = 55-34 +45.79u
                                                                                                                                Tot 59.96u

                                                                                                                                Results
                                                                                                                                80A H3 Golden State fade Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
                                                                                                                                81A H3 San Antonio 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
                                                                                                                                82A O4 Atlanta fade Orlando 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
                                                                                                                                55A EX San Antonio 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
                                                                                                                                56A EX Philly fade LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
                                                                                                                                Monday
                                                                                                                                77B H3 Charlotte fade Utah 2.31 to win 2.1
                                                                                                                                82A S1 Portland fade New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00 ***
                                                                                                                                74C S1 New Orleans fade Portland 4.85 to win 4.41***
                                                                                                                                44D EX Portland 10.19 to win 9.26***
                                                                                                                                57A EX Miami 1.10 to win 1.00
                                                                                                                                83A S1 Miami fade Denver 1.10 to win 1.00

                                                                                                                                it seems i missed a S1 Miami fade on the 28th. The game lost so I'm adding it here which cancels the 57A EX.


                                                                                                                                ** yikes - best way is play Portland 13.93 to win 12.67 - unless you won the previous N.O. fade then
                                                                                                                                Portland 9.08 to win 8.26
                                                                                                                                Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-30-13, 09:12 AM.
                                                                                                                                  Comment
                                                                                                                                  • Grinder12000
                                                                                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                                                                                    • 04-21-11
                                                                                                                                    • 1809
                                                                                                                                    #383
                                                                                                                                    A few weeks ago I was asking for a place to see game stats for teams.

                                                                                                                                    Found it

                                                                                                                                    This is for the Bucks but click on teams - NBA does a fine job

                                                                                                                                    Content Unavailable
                                                                                                                                    http://stats.nba.com/teamGameLogs.html?TeamID=1610612749&pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=25


                                                                                                                                    New Orleans has Eric Gordon out tonight and if you look at some of the cool stats you can see that he is important - for instance

                                                                                                                                    Content Unavailable
                                                                                                                                    http://stats.nba.com/teamPlayers.html?TeamID=1610612740&MeasureType=Usage&PerMode=Totals


                                                                                                                                    shows that while on the court Gordon makes 21% of the FGs and and 37% of the 3 pointers - steals and blocks are also in the 25% area.
                                                                                                                                      Comment
                                                                                                                                      • bgilic
                                                                                                                                        SBR Hustler
                                                                                                                                        • 10-28-13
                                                                                                                                        • 96
                                                                                                                                        #384
                                                                                                                                        Here is to the big win from Blazers. Oh I feel so dirty saying that.
                                                                                                                                          Comment
                                                                                                                                          • Afterimage
                                                                                                                                            SBR Rookie
                                                                                                                                            • 09-07-13
                                                                                                                                            • 44
                                                                                                                                            #385
                                                                                                                                            Absolutely! A toast to our victory! Aw hell!!!
                                                                                                                                            Last edited by Afterimage; 12-30-13, 10:37 PM.
                                                                                                                                              Comment
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