Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

[Grinder12000]

That Cleveland game was a nightmare as Portland scored the last 10 points in the final minutes.

Ill have to digest the London thing. WTF.

i also have some joy that Golden State LOST the game, if you are not going to cover, at least lose.

are we playing Atl B bet at home? i think the game is in London

Yes - I went back and redid the algorithm as if Atlanta was AWAY with same results

I did not know we would start the "C" game correction in SAS2 RIGHT AWAY!!

SAS2 - days between "C" losses

8
11
3
3
10
8
14
14
4(2)

EX Days between "C" losses

39
5
6
5

[miczz14]

2 games chase on cle was so unlucky they tried to cover but Deng missed a 3

[Grinder12000]

Sorry for more word clutter - I'm always asking WHY something is happening

So how bad has it actually been.

It seems like everything is crashing and burning doesn't it. But for me it's all about wins and losses and not chases. While this is a chasing system you can not make a betting system that will win if you can't win games.

Any betting system has to have an individual game winning percentage of 52% ATS, period, can't be done. I'll say it again, in the long run, against the spread, there is no scientific way to win money, in ANY system, if you can not hit 52% of your games. There is no God particle in the NBA.

With that said my concern is always winning percentage. So looking at the last month

in the last 30 days
SAS2 43-36 54.4%
EX 54-35 60.6%
S3H3O1 30-25 54.5%

In the last 7 days
SAS2 8-11 42.1%
EX 12-11 52.1%
S3H3O1 6-5 54.5%

So ya - a little slumpy - I guess we were do - let's just ride out this vortex, keep our head above water and fight another day!

The 5 systems combined - daily units won/lost with trend line - graph goes to the end of the NBA season. Trend-line is just that

[Mako-SBR]

In the last 7 days
SAS2 8-11 42.1%
EX 12-11 52.1%
S3H3O1 6-5 54.5%

So ya - a little slumpy - I guess we were do - let's just ride out this vortex, keep our head above water and fight another day!

If going 26-27 over the past week is a "slump", as a stright bettor I'll take that every time Grinder...

Keep up the great work, loving everything you're doing.

[Trep]

The graph is blurry =P

Guess I started tailing at a bad time. But I'm optimistic and I'm picking and choosing in between systems. Thankfully I missed the ATL pick today though!

Thanks again for all the work.

[Grinder12000]

Dang - I wish I would have missed it!! I had +2 When a team almost hits .600 shooting 27 3-pointers it'll be tough to win.

You know Trep - now you can't say everytime you miss a game it wins! :-)

[Grinder12000]

01/16/14

All systems combined straight betting 202-163
All chases Tot 43.64u and treading water
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out

Result
EX = 80-64 +10.79.46u
85A EX NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST
86A EX Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

SAS2 32-23 +2.33u
36A SAS2 fade Indiana NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost
##B SAS2 Atlanta 2.31 to win 2.10 Lost

It's clean up Friday YIKES

82C EX fade LALakers Boston 4.85 to win 4.41 ***(1)
85B EX NYKnicks 2.31 to win 2.10
84B EX Toronto 2.31 to win 2.10
75C EX fade Detroit Utah 4.85 to win 4.41
81C EX San Antonio 4.85 to win 4.41
86A EX fade Boston LALakers ***(1)

100A H3 NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00
101A H3 fade LAClippers NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00
98B H3 Phoenix 2.31 to win 2.10
102A S3 fade Miami Philly 1.10 to win 1.00

"D" BETS - PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK (of course)

73D EX Golden State
##D SAS2 Cleveland
##D SAS2 Golden State
89D S3 Cleveland

This is a 7 day moving average of daily winning pct. About 50 games a week. Meaning take all 7 days and get a winning%, Next day throw out the first day and add the next. As you can tell a little slumpy but we're do to bounce back. Got some resistance at the .450 level.

All systems. Red line is the average trend line. Bottom bars are the number of wagers per 7 day week. The .300 line is 40 wagers



I'm road trippin' this weekend - I won't be so chatty! And yes - zero picks for the SAS2 - weird. It's afraid I think!

[miczz14]

are you going to post the D bets?

oh and do you cap or just play the system?

[Grinder12000]

There ya go.

Good luck this weekend - I'll be having Christmas in Illinois but will keep things going.

NBA games in the next 7 days

Friday - 12
Saturday - 7
Sunday - 5
Monday - 10
Tuesday - 5
Wednesday - 10
Thursday - 2

Updated the graph.

[Afterimage]

According to the graph it's time to BUY! Lock and load! Upswing coming!

[Grinder12000]

I had 300 miles to think about that graph and might have an idea on a chase/straight betting fusion system.

Straight bet going down down and chase going up. I'll have to look into this.

[Trep]

Dang - I wish I would have missed it!! I had +2 When a team almost hits .600 shooting 27 3-pointers it'll be tough to win.

You know Trep - now you can't say everytime you miss a game it wins! :-)

I can...just to make myself feel better. I'll selectively ignore the times it works out for me! =P

[Afterimage]

I typically bet more when Bridgejumper goes into a slump. Nearly always proves profitable. I'm fairly confident we'll find the same thing here, unless it all just goes down in flames. Been a blast so far!

[Jeremylynn]

Anybody have a thought on these d bets. I like the Cleveland not sure about golden St

[Grinder12000]

01/18/14

All systems combined straight betting 205-170
All chases Tot 32.63u and sinking
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out

MAN!! The bloom is off the rose - this is killing me
EX = 83-67 +6.29u
82C EX fade LALakers Boston 4.85 to win 4.41 LOST
85B EX NYKnicks 2.31 to win 2.10 LOST
84B EX Toronto 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
75C EX fade Detroit Utah 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN
81C EX San Antonio 4.85 to win 4.41 LOST
86A EX fade Boston LALakers 1.1. to win 1.00 WIN

S3,H3,O1 = 92-80 +24.01u
100A H3 NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST
101A H3 fade LAClippers NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST
98B H3 Phoenix 2.31 to win 2.10 LOST
102A S3 fade Miami Philly 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST

I guess we hadn't hit bottom yet.

Saturday Known games - lets get off the schnide

36B SAS2 fade Indiana LAClippers 2.31 to 2.10
37A SAS2 fade Minn Utah 1.10 to 1.00
38A SAS2 fade Portland Dallas 1.10 to win 1.00

SAS2 will be ramping up tomorrow along with EX

87A EX fade Milwaukee Houston 1.10 to win 1.00

101B H3 fade LAClippers Indiana 2.31 to won 2.10
102B S3 fade Miami Charlotte 2.31 to win 2.10
103A S3 Utah 1.10 to win 1.00

OK - lets do it

24-31 the last 7 days!

I see the "D" games were 2-2.

[Trep]

Clippers Milwaukee looks like a mixup

[Grinder12000]

Clippers Milwaukee looks like a mixup

Its how I'm planning on getting some wins LOL

updating

[Grinder12000]

Holy Crap = just checked in for the 1st time - this is embarrassing. I apologize

[Grinder12000]

01/19/14

All systems combined straight betting 206-177
All chases Tot 28.81u and sinking
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out

Ridin' The Storm Out

SAS2 30-24 +0.92u
36B SAS2 fade Indiana LAClippers 2.31 to 2.10 Lose
37A SAS2 fade Minn Utah 1.10 to 1.00 Lose
38A SAS2 fade Portland Dallas 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose

EX = 80-65 +5.19u
87A EX fade Milwaukee Houston 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose

S3,H3,O1 = 93-82 +22.70u
101B H3 fade LAClippers Indiana 2.31 to won 2.10 Win
102B S3 fade Miami Charlotte 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose
103A S3 Utah 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose

S S S Sunday final answer

38A SAS2 fade Sacramento Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00
39A SAS2 fade Phoenix Denver 1.10 to win 1.00 **(1)
40A SAS2 fade LALakers Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00
41A SAS2 fade Oklahoma City Sacramento 1.10 to win 1.00

87B EX fade Milwaukee San Antonio 2.31 to win 2.10
88A EX fade Boston Orlando 1.10 to win 1.00

98C H3 Phoenix 4.85 to win 4.41 **(1)

I hope we will look back in a few weeks and laugh!

I'm seriously stunned at how all of these systems are getting spanked. is this better then a long slow leak or is it better the pipe burst. OR is this how this system works, HOT HOT and COLD COLD.

[Grinder12000]

01/20/14

All systems combined straight betting 210-179
All chases Tot 36.21u
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out

Winner winner chicken dinner

SAS2 32-26 +0.72u
38A SAS2 fade Sacramento Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
39A SAS2 fade Phoenix Denver 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
40A SAS2 fade LALakers Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
41A SAS2 fade Oklahoma City Sacramento 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

EX = 82-65 +8.29u
87B EX fade Milwaukee San Antonio 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
88A EX fade Boston Orlando 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

S3,H3,O1 = 94-82 +27.110u
98C H3 Phoenix 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN

The Monday Buffet of known games - Final finally

##C SAS2 Atlanta 4.85 to win 4.41 ***(3)
36C SAS2 fade Indiana Golden State 4.85 to win 4.41 ***(2)
38B SAS2 fade Portland Houston 2.31 to win 2.10
40B SAS2 LALakers 2.31 to win 2.10 ***(5)
42A SAS2 fade Memphis New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(4)
43A SAS2 fade Chicago LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(5)
44A SAS2 fade Miami Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00
45A SAS2 Philly 1.10 to win 1.00


85C EX NYKnicks 4.84 to win 4.41 ***(1)
89A EX Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(1)
90A EX fade New Orleans Memphis 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(4)

105A H3 Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00
100B H3 NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(1)
104A H3 Washington 1.10 to win 1.00
106A H3 fade Indiana Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(2)
102C S3 fade Miami Atlanta 4.85 to win 4.41 ***(3)
107A O1 fade Miami Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(3) *** O1's are 27-15 in "A' games

I'm back home now with my comfort computer and you KNOW I'll have some data looking at the last disastor of a week to see what the hell happened.

Every set of systems all took a big dump in the same week. Let's hope we clean up and get things back to so semblance of normal and I hope y'all did not lose a LOT! (I did but I sort of have to now don't I?)

One word of caution about "D" games which I say don't play but will post them when I remember.

SAS2 is 3-7 for -58 units
EX is 2-4 for -22.24 units
S3H3O1 is 3-4 for -12 uinits

just sayin.

[Grinder12000]

ALERT Lots of morning games today.

added to the Monday MLK buffet

43A SAS2 fade Chicago LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(5)
44A SAS2 fade Miami Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00
45A SAS2 Philly 1.10 to win 1.00


Monday simple version

Atlanta 11.90 to win 10.82 go Atlanta!!
Golden State 5.61 to win 5.41
Houston 2.31 to win 2.10
LALakers 3.41 to win 3.10
Philly 1.10 to win 1.00
NYKnicks 4.85 to win 4.41
Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00
Washing ton 1.10 to win 1.00


FINALLY - MAYBE WE HIT BOTTOM??? I guess today will tell

7 day moving average of winning pct.

[alexknyc]

I don't see a Utah game on the schedule. Am I missing something?

[Grinder12000]

I don't see a Utah game on the schedule. Am I missing something?

OOPS- that is on the 21st tomorrow. TY

7 week moving average of the 7 day moving average has been a pretty good barometer of direction.

[Grinder12000]

01/21/14

All systems combined straight betting 199-164 corrected
All chases Tot 47.07u corrected
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out

SAS2 40-29 +4.76u corrected
##C SAS2 Atlanta 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN
36C SAS2 fade Indiana Golden State 4.85 to win 4.41 LOSE
38B SAS2 fade Portland Houston 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
40B SAS2 LALakers 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
42A SAS2 fade Memphis New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
43A SAS2 fade Chicago LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
44A SAS2 fade Miami Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
45A SAS2 Philly 1.10 to win 1.00WIN

EX =63-49 +14.20u corrected
85C EX NYKnicks 4.84 to win 4.41 LOST
89A EX Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
90A EX fade New Orleans Memphis 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST

S3,H3,O1 = 96-86 +28.11u
105A H3 Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00LOST
100B H3 NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST
104A H3 Washington 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST
106A H3 fade Indiana Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
102C S3 fade Miami Atlanta 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN
107A O1 fade Miami Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

Tuesday's known games

37B SAS2 fade Minnesota Utah 2.31 to win .10
41B SAS2 fade Oklahoma City Portland 2.31 to win 2.10

90B EX fade New Orleans Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.10
91A EX fade Boston Miami 1.10 to win 1.00
92A EX Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00
107A H3 Miami 1.10 to win 1.00
103B S3 Utah 2.31 to win 2.10

Have to reload EX and SAS2.

SAS2 posted "A' plays are 73% 29-17
EX has problems after the "B" games - good idea to make them a 2 game chase
H3 are 14-7 AFTER the "A" game and 15-7 including a "D" game
S3 are . . blah! break even at best
O1 are 28-15 in "A" games

NOTE you will notice corrections in totals. i had mixd up back testing numbers with posted.

[unitedlad]

Very interesting work your doing here. Keep it up.

By the way, I think it's Sacramento that's the 90B play today instead of Memphis

[Grinder12000]

BTW - i'll have a complete breakdown of all systems tonight or tomorrow.

also - I am all over the Seahawks. I am surprised and elated they are dogs.

NOTE- as of today we are in a BUY mode for the systems. I'll explain when I get to a real computer.

if we would have stopped at the sell indicator we would have not played the 4o-46 11 day run

[Mako-SBR]

Agree on Seahawks, 77% of all public money is going on Denver at the moment, hoping that keeps moving the line and we can get Seattle to a nice round +3 or even a sexy +3.5 by the end of the week...

Enjoying this technical analysis of the system Grinder, the buy and sell indicators are easy to spot and we're definitely on the buy-side as you mentioned. Great work.

[Grinder12000]

Seahawks - my theory - then off to a City Council meeting

Seattle was the most penalized team in the league right? Denver and Manning are awesome and in a regular season game I would take Denver. But in the Super Bowl the refs "let them play". You have to REALLY grab a guy to get a flag. The Seattle defense, because they will be "allowed to play" will make the Denver offense miserable. The great equalizer.

On Offense, Wilson (I watched him play for UW Wisconsin - love the guy) will be on the run all day which is fine for him. The Denver defense rushes up the middle to get to the QB which hurts guys like Brady but is horrible against guys like Wilson who are great outside the pocket. Denver does not have the speed on the ends to box Wilson in.

[Grinder12000]

01/21/14

All systems combined straight betting 201-169 corrected
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out

What happened! I leave for a second and Portland loses??

SAS2 40-31 +0.14u
37B SAS2 fade Minnesota Utah 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE
41B SAS2 fade Oklahoma City Portland 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE

EX =65-50 +16.20u corrected
90B EX fade New Orleans Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
91A EX fade Boston Miami 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
92A EX Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

H3 29-28 +11.72
107A H3 Miami 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE

S3 28-29 +8.07
103B S3 Utah 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE

Wednesdays games - final

41C SAS2 fade Oklahoma City San Antonio 4.85 to win 4.41

91B EX fade Boston Washington 2.31 to win 2.10

100C H3 NYKnicks 4.85 to win 4.41
104B H3 Washington 2.31 to win 2.10
105B H3 Cleveland 2.31 to win 2.10
106B H3 fade Indiana Phoenix 2.31 to win 2.10

"D" games - play at your own risk
SAS2 fade Indiana
EX NYKnicks

DOES NOT INCLUDE TUESDAY GAMES

What I have done is gone back and looked at all the games for each system - published AND backtested. This should give you an idea on how to proceed with YOUR take on the systems.

SAS2 - trigger - a look at the upcoming schedule after a team wins/loses 2 ATS

Published
+4.76u 3-game chase +0.10 per chase
+8.10u Straight betting +0.12 per game

"A" 29-17 +10.30u
"B" 7-8 -3.78u
"C" 4-4 -1.76u
"D" 2-1

Published + backtested
+69.14u 3-game chase +0.40 per chase
+33.50u Straight betting +0.12 per game

"A" 98-73 +17.70u
"B" 42-31 +16.59u
"C" 20-11 +34.85u
"D" 3-7


EX - trigger - Using RPI as a trigger

Published
+14.20u 3-game chase +0.22 per chase
+9.10u Straight betting +0.08 per game

"A" 34-32 -1.20u
"B" 24-10 +27.30u
"C" 5-7 -11.90u
"D" 4-2

Published + backtested
+29.28u 3-game chase +0.32 per chase
+18.90u Straight betting +0.13 per game

"A" 51-41 +5.90u
"B" 29-13 +30.87u
"C" 6-7 -7.49u
"D" 4-2


H3 - trigger - 4 game home stand

Published
+12.82u 3-game chase +0.39 per chase
+0.30u Straight betting +0.01 per game

"A" 14-19 -6.90u
"B" 11-7+26.93u
"C" 4-1 +12.79u
"D" 1-0

S3 - trigger - after certain teams win/lose 3 ATS

Published
+10.38u 3-game chase +0.33 per chase
-2.90u Straight betting -0.05 per game

"A" 13-18 -6.80u
"B" 9-8 +0.42u
"C" 6-2 +16.76u
"D" 1-1

O1 - trigger - after certain teams play an OT game

Published
+16.96u 3-game chase +0.16 per chase
-9.00u Straight betting +0.13 per game

"A" 29-15 +12.50u
"B" 6-9 -8.19u
"C" 5-4 +2.65u
"D" 2-2

For Straight Bettors

An interesting note - my winning pct chart has a 5 week moving average trend line. Straight betting when the line is BELOW the dark pct line the systems are 171-105 for 61.9%.

When the trend line is ABOVE the pct line the games are 141-134 for 51.2%

Might be something to watch. We are in a BUY mode as of today.

Playing chases ONLY during the BUY times does not lead to greater profits.

NOTE as of Tuesday night we are still in a BUY mode. Oddly LOL

[miczz14]

nba is so frustrating to watch

OKC fade should have ended by NO! it got fixed written all over it. And now OKC is +6 vs SAS wtf?

[ChicagoCover]

The OKC +6 line seems too good to be true anyway. Think thats a line for the public to jump all over, but I could be wrong.

I personally like Phoenix plus the points, with another team (the pacers) that're hot only having to defeat five points also seems too good to be true. Again, I could be wrong.

[ChicagoCover]

If the Phoenix Suns line get's to 6, recommend taking it.




||sorry for bothering your system thread with my opinion||

[Grinder12000]

Not a problem with comments. I. Sure there will be a crap load of more plays on e I get codfee in me. I was feeling good at the break in council last night (what to do with unstackable sewage sludge was a big topic) and then I see Durante scored 11 points in the last 3 minutes.

For or any long time followers any game with Portland is a curse.

[miczz14]

The OKC +6 line seems too good to be true anyway. Think thats a line for the public to jump all over, but I could be wrong.

I personally like Phoenix plus the points, with another team (the pacers) that're hot only having to defeat five points also seems too good to be true. Again, I could be wrong.

thing is OKC +6 line was already live even before POR vs OKC started

[Grinder12000]

CHARTS

This first chart is if you are chasing the systems days are across the bottom (without yesterdays stats I see)



Same as above except this is if you were straight betting



This one is the BUY/SELL chart. 7 day moving average and the trend line is a 5 week moving average. I really don't know if this works. It's one of those things where just because it's charted does not mean its relevant - long term will tell I guess



Using the above chart - the blue line is if you straight bet ONLY during BUY periods (when the thin line is below the thick line on the above chart) and the red line is betting during SELL times (thin line above thick).



Things like this LOOK good but you always wonder if past results are an indication to future results! We won't know. the season is 1/2 over so . . . . . .