Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

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  • Mako-SBR
    SBR Sharp
    • 10-15-13
    • 492

    #596
    Nice Grinder, I had a feeling you'd use the break to sharpen all the data up and of course you did like the pro you are.

    We'll finish strong for sure.
    Comment
    • bigtymer56
      SBR MVP
      • 07-31-12
      • 4742

      #597
      Hope u hit ur goal...put alot of work into this
      Comment
      • Grinder12000
        SBR MVP
        • 04-21-11
        • 1809

        #598
        2/18/14 - Legacy Systems

        Results so far
        O1* as posted only with selected teams
        O1 using ALL teams
        All Systems as posted +50.93u (3 gm Chase)
        O1* +17.22u
        S3 +15.49u
        H3 +18.22u
        All Systems 3-game chase (new O1) +86.82u +10.51 chase losses
        O1 +53.01u
        S3 +15.49u
        H3 +18.22u
        All Systems 4-game chase (new O1) +138.49 +7.5 chase losses
        O1 +78.80u
        S3 +14.66u
        H3 +45.03u


        Hope u hit ur goal...put alot of work into this
        "work" - more like fascination - if it was work I wouldn't do it!
        "goal" - well, it's something to shoot for, not sure it's actually doable.


        Tuesday's games

        H3 - no continuing series

        H1A - Philadelphia 1.10 to win 1.00

        S3 - two continuing series

        S1B - Orlando 2.31 to win 2.10
        S2B - Charlotte 2.31 to win 2.10

        O1 - will start new series - underlying theory is busted with 5 days off.

        H3
        W L Pct
        A
        19 27 41.3%
        B 14 13 51.9%
        C 10 3 76.9%
        D 3 0 100.0%
        S3
        W L Pct
        A
        14 22 38.9%
        B 12 9 57.1%
        C 7 2 77.8%
        D 1 1 50.0%
        O1
        W L Pct
        A
        56 43 56.6%
        B 21 22 48.8%
        C 17 5 77.3%
        D 4 1 80.0%
        ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ .......28263
        Last edited by Grinder12000; 02-17-14, 12:57 PM.
        Comment
        • Grinder12000
          SBR MVP
          • 04-21-11
          • 1809

          #599
          2/19/14 - Legacy Systems

          All Systems as posted +49.62u(3-game chase) +6.00 chase losses
          O# +17.22u
          S# +15.28u
          H# +17.12u
          All Systems as posted +83.95u (4-game chase) +4.55 chase losses
          O# +25.57u
          S# +14.45u
          H# +43.93u

          Tuesday's games

          H1A - Philadelphia 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose
          S1B - Orlando 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose
          S2B - Charlotte 2.31 to win 2.10 Win
          Wednesdays Games

          H2A - fade Houston LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00
          H3A - Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00
          H4A - fade Brooklyn Utah 1.10 to win 1.00

          S1C - Orlando 4.85 to win 4.41 (have lost 13 straight on road ATS)

          O1A - fade Phoenix Boston 1.10 to win 1.00

          No S3 games

          H1B - Philly continues Friday
          O2A - fade Boston - Thursday


          H#
          W L Pct
          A
          19 28 40.4%
          B 14 13 51.9%
          C 10 3 76.9%
          D 3 0 100.0%
          S#
          W L Pct
          A
          14 22 38.9%
          B 13 10 56.5%
          C 7 2 77.8%
          D 1 1 50.0%
          O#
          W L Pct
          A
          56 43 56.6%
          B 21 22 48.8%
          C 17 5 77.3%
          D 4 1 80.0%
          28,394
          Last edited by Grinder12000; 02-19-14, 08:34 PM.
          Comment
          • Grinder12000
            SBR MVP
            • 04-21-11
            • 1809

            #600
            2/20/14 - Legacy Systems

            All Systems as posted +42.18u(3-game chase) +5.10 chase losses
            O# +16.22u
            S# +10.04u
            H# +15.92u
            All Systems as posted +75.90u (4-game chase) +4.11 chase losses
            O# +23.57u
            S# +9.60u
            H# +42.73u


            Results
            H2A - fade Houston LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost
            H3A - Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00 win
            H4A - fade Brooklyn Utah 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost

            S1C - Orlando 4.85 to win 4.41 Lost

            O1A - fade Phoenix Boston 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost

            Thursday

            H2B - fade Houston Golden State 2.31 to win 2.10
            -----------------------------------------------

            H1B - Philly - Friday
            H2A - fade Boston - Friday
            H4B - fade Brooklyn - Saturday
            S1D - Orlando - Friday
            O1B - fade Phoenix - Friday

            H3 W L Pct
            A 20 30 40.0%
            B 14 13 51.9%
            C 10 3 76.9%
            D 3 0 100.0%
            S3 W L Pct
            A 14 22 38.9%
            B 13 10 56.5%
            C 7 3 70.0%
            D 1 1 50.0%
            O1 W L Pct
            A 56 44 56.0%
            B 21 22 48.8%
            C 17 5 77.3%
            D 4 1 80.0%
            Comment
            • Grinder12000
              SBR MVP
              • 04-21-11
              • 1809

              #601
              2/21/14 - Legacy Systems

              All Systems as posted +44.28u(3-game chase) +5.36 chase losses
              O# +16.22u
              S# +10.04u
              H# +18.92u
              All Systems as posted +77.59u (4-game chase) +4.20 chase losses
              O# +23.16u
              S# +9.60u
              H# +44.83u

              Results

              H2B - fade Houston Golden State 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
              H1B - Philly 2.31 to win 2.10

              O1B - fade Phoenix San Antonio 2.31 to win 2.10
              O2A - fade Boston LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00

              S1D - Orlando 10.19 to win 9.27

              ----------------------------------------------

              H4B - fade Brooklyn - Saturday
              O4A - fade Golden State - Saturday
              O5A - fade Houston - Sunday

              H3 W L Pct
              A 20 30 40.0%
              B 15 13 53.6%
              C 10 3 76.9%
              D 3 0 100.0%
              S3 W L Pct
              A 14 22 38.9%
              B 13 10 56.5%
              C 7 3 70.0%
              D 1 1 50.0%
              O1 W L Pct
              A 56 44 56.0%
              B 21 22 48.8%
              C 17 5 77.3%
              D 4 1 80.0%



              Last edited by Grinder12000; 02-21-14, 08:42 AM.
              Comment
              • Grinder12000
                SBR MVP
                • 04-21-11
                • 1809

                #602
                2/21/14 - Legacy Systems

                All Systems as posted +44.28u(3-game chase) +5.36 chase losses
                O# +16.22u
                S# +10.04u
                H# +18.92u
                All Systems as posted +78.00u (4-game chase) +4.22 chase losses
                O# +23.57u
                S# +9.60u
                H# +44.83u


                Results

                H2B - fade Houston Golden State 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
                H1B - Philly 2.31 to win 2.10

                O1B - fade Phoenix San Antonio 2.31 to win 2.10
                O2A - fade Boston LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00

                S1D - Orlando 10.19 to win 9.27

                ----------------------------------------------

                H4B - fade Brooklyn - Saturday
                O4A - fade Golden State - Saturday
                O5A - fade Houston - Sunday

                H# W L Pct
                A 20 30 40.0%
                B 15 13 53.6%
                C 10 3 76.9%
                D 3 0 100.0%
                S# W L Pct
                A 14 22 38.9%
                B 13 10 56.5%
                C 7 3 70.0%
                D 1 1 50.0%
                O# W L Pct
                A 56 44 56.0%
                B 21 22 48.8%
                C 17 5 77.3%
                D 4 1 80.0%




                Last edited by Grinder12000; 02-21-14, 02:24 PM.
                Comment
                • Grinder12000
                  SBR MVP
                  • 04-21-11
                  • 1809

                  #603
                  2/22/14 - Legacy Systems

                  All Systems as posted +45.99u(3-game chase) +5.56 chase losses
                  O# +14.91u
                  S# +10.04u
                  H# +21.02u
                  All Systems as posted +88.0u (4-game chase) +4.77 chase losses
                  O# +22.26u
                  S# +18.87u
                  H# +46.93u


                  Results
                  H1B - Philly 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN

                  O1B - fade Phoenix San Antonio 2.31 to win 2.10 LOST
                  O2A - fade Boston LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

                  S1D - Orlando 10.19 to win 9.27 WIN

                  Saturday


                  O4A - fade Golden State Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00
                  O5A - fade NYKnicks Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00

                  H4B - fade Brooklyn Golden State 2.31 to win 2.10

                  ---------------------------------

                  O3C - fade Phoenix - Sunday
                  O6A - fade Houston - Sunday
                  O7A - fade Orlando - Sunday

                  H3 W L Pct
                  A 20 30 40.0%
                  B 16 13 55.2%
                  C 10 3 76.9%
                  D 3 0 100.0%
                  S3 W L Pct
                  A 14 22 38.9%
                  B 13 10 56.5%
                  C 7 3 70.0%
                  D 2 1 66.7%
                  O1 W L Pct
                  A 57 44 56.4%
                  B 21 22 48.8%
                  C 17 5 77.3%
                  D 4 1 80.0%
                  Last edited by Grinder12000; 02-22-14, 10:19 AM.
                  Comment
                  • Grinder12000
                    SBR MVP
                    • 04-21-11
                    • 1809

                    #604
                    2/23/14 - Legacy Systems

                    All Systems as posted +47.97u(3-game chase) or +5.81 chase
                    O# +14.81u
                    S# +10.04u
                    H# +23.12u
                    All Systems as posted +90.05u (4-game chase) or +4.88 chase
                    O# +22.16u
                    S# +18.87u
                    H# +49.02u

                    Results

                    O4A - fade Golden State Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose
                    O5A - fade NYKnicks Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00 Win

                    H4B - fade Brooklyn Golden State 2.31 to win 2.10 Win
                    Sunday

                    O3C - fade Phoenix Houston 4.85 to win 4.41
                    O6A - fade Houston Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00
                    O7A - fade Orlando Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00

                    --------------------------

                    O5B - fade NYK - Monday
                    S3A - Golden State - Monday

                    H# W L Pct
                    A 20 30 40.0%
                    B 17 13 56.7%
                    C 10 3 76.9%
                    D 3 0 100.0%
                    S# W L Pct
                    A 14 22 38.9%
                    B 13 10 56.5%
                    C 7 3 70.0%
                    D 2 1 66.7%
                    O# W L Pct
                    A 58 45 56.3%
                    B 21 22 48.8%
                    C 17 5 77.3%
                    D 4 1 80.0%

                    What IF

                    When I was looking into the Legacy systems and how I could improve I selected only certain teams for the Overtime System. This is what the Three Legacy systems would be IF I used ALL teams (which is what I do NOW) in the Overtime system and not just my selected teams.

                    Last edited by Grinder12000; 02-23-14, 11:14 AM.
                    Comment
                    • Grinder12000
                      SBR MVP
                      • 04-21-11
                      • 1809

                      #605
                      2/24/14 - Legacy Systems

                      All Systems as posted +52.28u(3-game chase) or +6.33 chase's
                      O# +19.12u
                      S# +10.04u
                      H# +23.12u
                      All Systems as posted +94.36u (4-game chase) or +5.11 chase's
                      O# +26.47u
                      S# +18.87u
                      H# +49.02u


                      results

                      O3C - fade Phoenix Houston 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN
                      O6A - fade Houston Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
                      O7A - fade Orlando Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
                      Monday

                      O5B - fade NYKnicks Dallas 2.31 to win 2.10
                      S3A - Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00

                      ---------------------------------------

                      O6B - fade Houston Tuesday
                      H5A - Boston Wednesday
                      S4A - fade Oklahoma City

                      H#
                      W L Pct
                      A
                      20 30 40.0%
                      B 17 13 56.7%
                      C 10
                      3 76.9%
                      D 3 0 100.0%
                      S#
                      W L Pct
                      A
                      14 22 38.9%
                      B 13 10 56.5%
                      C 7
                      3 70.0%
                      D 2 1 66.7%
                      O#
                      W L Pct
                      A
                      59 46 56.2%
                      B 21 22 48.8%
                      C 18
                      5 78.3%
                      D 4 1 80.0%
                      29,141
                      Last edited by Grinder12000; 02-24-14, 09:13 AM.
                      Comment
                      • Grinder12000
                        SBR MVP
                        • 04-21-11
                        • 1809

                        #606
                        2/25/14 - Legacy Systems

                        All Systems as posted +50.97u (3-game chase) or +6.17 chase's
                        O# +16.81u
                        S# +11.04u
                        H# +23.12u
                        All Systems as posted +93.05u (4-game chase) or +5.04 chase's
                        O# +24.16u
                        S# +19.87u
                        H# +49.02u


                        Results

                        O5B - fade NYKnicks Dallas 2.31 to win 2.10 LOST - so close!!
                        S3A - Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00 WON
                        Tuesday

                        O6B - fade Houston Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.10

                        -------------------------------

                        O5C - fade NYKnicks Thursday
                        H5A - Boston Wednesday
                        H6A - fade Atlanta Wednesday
                        S4A - fade Oklahoma City Wednesday

                        H#
                        W L Pct
                        A
                        20 30 40.0%
                        B 17 13 56.7%
                        C 10 3 76.9%
                        D 3 0 100.0%
                        S#
                        W
                        L Pct
                        A 15 22 40.5%
                        B 13 10 56.5%
                        C 7 3 70.0%
                        D 2 1 66.7%
                        O#
                        W L Pct
                        A 59 46 56.2%
                        B 21
                        23 47.7%
                        C 18 5 78.3%
                        D 4 1 80.0%
                        Comment
                        • Grinder12000
                          SBR MVP
                          • 04-21-11
                          • 1809

                          #607
                          2/26/14 - Legacy Systems

                          All Systems as posted +48.66u (3-game chase) or +5.89 chase's
                          O# +14.50u
                          S# +11.04u
                          H# +23.12u
                          All Systems as posted +90.74u (4-game chase) or +4.91 chase's
                          O# +21.85u
                          S# +19.87u
                          H# +49.02u

                          results

                          O6B - fade Houston Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE

                          sometimes you look at a score after the 1st quarter and write the game off 42-17? LOL
                          Wednesday

                          O6C - fade Houston LAClippers 4.85 to win 4.41

                          H5A - Boston 1.10 to win 1.00
                          H6A - fade Atlanta Boston 1.10 to win 1.00

                          Well - that will help the H#A winning pct!!

                          S4A - fade Oklahoma City Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00
                          --------------------------------

                          O5C - fade NYKnicks - Thursday
                          H7A - fade Utah - Friday
                          --------------------------------


                          H#
                          W L Pct
                          A
                          20 30 40.0%
                          B 17 13 56.7%
                          C 10 3 76.9%
                          D 3 0 100.0%
                          S#
                          W L Pct
                          A
                          15 22 40.5%
                          B 13 10 56.5%
                          C 7 3 70.0%
                          D 2 1 66.7%
                          O#
                          W L Pct
                          A 59 46 56.2%
                          B 21 24 46.7%
                          C
                          18 5 78.3%
                          D 4 1 80.0%
                          Last edited by Grinder12000; 02-26-14, 10:38 PM.
                          Comment
                          • J.M. Disciple
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 11-16-10
                            • 5154

                            #608
                            I think I have mixed up the streak system in my head. I thought we should fade a team who has won 3 straight ATS, so they only have to win 1 of the next 3 for you to be winning 1 out of 6 basically. Very rare for a team to win 6 straight ATS. Or vise versa on the lose 3 straight ATS, bet on a team to win 1 ATS. I am guessing the first one does better then the losing streaks though.
                            Comment
                            • Grinder12000
                              SBR MVP
                              • 04-21-11
                              • 1809

                              #609
                              Well - being a contrarian you would be correct IF I did not go contrarian to all the other contrarian.

                              Win 3 and go for one more WIN
                              Lose 3 and go for one more LOSE.

                              Oddly I think that there are so many knowledgeable NBA gamblers that believe contrarian is contrarian that NOT being contrarian is actually contrarian.

                              Very rare for a team to win 6 straight ATS.
                              OH no no no - it's scary how often that can happen - I bet every team does it ALMOST once a year. OR lose.

                              But I always fine that it is easier to keep a winning streak going then to NOT break losing streak.
                              Comment
                              • J.M. Disciple
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 11-16-10
                                • 5154

                                #610
                                Maybe this season is an anomaly. I noticed most the A bets when following this trend hits under 50% and could potentially make money saying a team won't hit 4 straight overall. might be like 55% but that's still money. Will have to test it but looking at your results i see you are up so can't argue that. i would like to see a break down of which one is doing better between following win streak and fading losing streak. Have a feeling losing streak is carrying the system more so then win streaks.

                                When do you start the next chase if you win the A bet do you wait for them to win 2 more ATS then bet again ATS or do you just keep betting that team until streak is broken and hope they don't lose 3 ATS once streak is broken.
                                Comment
                                • JoepvH
                                  SBR Rookie
                                  • 02-27-14
                                  • 6

                                  #611
                                  @ Grinder

                                  Hey Grinder I have been following your thread all season long and I just love it. I have 1 question. At 2/19 the serie O1 was started (the a bet lost) and at 2/21 the b bet of this serie was played. But after this there has been no C bet (or I'm really looking over it). I was wondering when this serie continuous.

                                  For the rest keep up the good work!
                                  Comment
                                  • Grinder12000
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 04-21-11
                                    • 1809

                                    #612
                                    At 2/19 the serie O1 was started (the a bet lost) and at 2/21 the b bet of this serie was played.
                                    it was Sunday - the problem was I messed up the numbering


                                    O1A - fade Phoenix Boston 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost
                                    O1B - fade Phoenix San Antonio 2.31 to win 2.10 LOST
                                    O3C - fade Phoenix Houston 4.85 to win 4.41 Win


                                    If anyone wants a copy of an excel spread sheet I have you are welcome to it. It contains the logs for all teams from 2003 to Dec 2012. Not the complete year in 2012. I must have been working on something - just found it. I was going to erase it but . . . . .

                                    Example

                                    Date Score Opponent Game Type ATS Line OU Line +/- line
                                    BOS 10/29/2003 98 75 Miami Division Game Won -9.5 Over 172.5 13.5
                                    PM me and I can send it - Excel will raise red flags on your email.

                                    JM - if a series starts and I win the series is over, (WWWW) BUT - there could be something for starting a NEW chase because there is a new 3 game streak (WWWW). One of the many many many things that can happen.
                                    Last edited by Grinder12000; 02-27-14, 08:32 AM.
                                    Comment
                                    • Grinder12000
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 04-21-11
                                      • 1809

                                      #613
                                      2/27/14 - Legacy Systems

                                      All Systems as posted +56.07u (3-game chase) or +6.79 chase's
                                      O# +18.91u
                                      S# +11.04u
                                      H# +26.12u
                                      All Systems as posted +98.15u (4-game chase) or +5.31 chase's
                                      O# +26.26u
                                      S# +21.87u
                                      H# +50.02u


                                      Results

                                      O6C - fade Houston LAClippers 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN

                                      H5A - Boston 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
                                      H6A - fade Atlanta Boston 1.10 to 1.00 Win

                                      S4A - fade Oklahoma City Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 Win

                                      Thursday


                                      O5C - fade NYKnicks Miami 4.85 to win 4.41
                                      -----------------------------

                                      H7A - fade Utah Friday

                                      H#
                                      W L Pct
                                      A
                                      22 30 42.3%
                                      B 17 13 56.7%
                                      C 10 3 76.9%
                                      D 3 0 100.0%
                                      S#
                                      W L Pct
                                      A 16 22 42.1%
                                      B 13 10 56.5%
                                      C 7 3 70.0%
                                      D 2 1 66.7%
                                      O#
                                      W L Pct
                                      A 59 46 56.2%
                                      B 21 24 46.7%
                                      C
                                      19 5 79.1%
                                      D 4 1 80.0%
                                      Last edited by Grinder12000; 02-27-14, 12:54 PM.
                                      Comment
                                      • Grinder12000
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 04-21-11
                                        • 1809

                                        #614
                                        2/28/14 - Legacy Systems

                                        All Systems as posted +60.48u (3-game chase) or +7.32 chase's
                                        O# +23.32u
                                        S# +11.04u
                                        H# +26.12u
                                        All Systems as posted +102.92u (4-game chase) or +5.57 chase's
                                        BOOM!! that's what I'm talking about!!
                                        O# +30.67u
                                        S# +21.87u
                                        H# +50.02u

                                        Results

                                        That was a good week. 15-5.


                                        O5C - fade NYKnicks Miami 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN
                                        Friday

                                        H7A - fade Utah Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00
                                        H8A - Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00

                                        ------------------------
                                        O8A - fade Washington Philly - Saturday
                                        O9A - fade Toronto Golden State Sunday

                                        Well - not an action junkie system but . . . . .

                                        H#
                                        W L Pct
                                        A
                                        22
                                        30 42.3%
                                        B 17 13 56.7%
                                        C 10 3 76.9%
                                        D 3 0 100.0%
                                        S#
                                        W L Pct
                                        A 16 22 42.1%
                                        B 13 10 56.5%
                                        C 7 3 70.0%
                                        D 2 1 66.7%
                                        O#
                                        W L Pct
                                        A 59 46 56.2%
                                        B 21 24 46.7%
                                        C 20 5 80.0%
                                        D 4 1 80.0%
                                        Last edited by Grinder12000; 02-28-14, 08:28 AM.
                                        Comment
                                        • Afterimage
                                          SBR Rookie
                                          • 09-07-13
                                          • 44

                                          #615
                                          And the triple! Three OC games in a row! It's my favorite category. Congrats Grinder for breaking 100!
                                          Comment
                                          • Grinder12000
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 04-21-11
                                            • 1809

                                            #616
                                            The "C" trifecta.

                                            I've been preparing for 2015 the last week, getting new stats and numbers. The H# system will look a little smaller next year but more S# games and more O# system games (hopefully). I'm not loving the O# fade Toronto series coming up. They play an "A" game and then have like 4 days off!

                                            I was looking at February, 4- game chase numbers

                                            O# 13-7 13-0 chases
                                            S# 5-4 5-0 chases
                                            H# 12-5 12-0 chases
                                            Comment
                                            • CheeseHead
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 12-03-10
                                              • 439

                                              #617
                                              Originally posted by Grinder12000
                                              The "C" trifecta.

                                              I've been preparing for 2015 the last week, getting new stats and numbers. The H# system will look a little smaller next year but more S# games and more O# system games (hopefully). I'm not loving the O# fade Toronto series coming up. They play an "A" game and then have like 4 days off!

                                              I was looking at February, 4- game chase numbers

                                              O# 13-7 13-0 chases
                                              S# 5-4 5-0 chases
                                              H# 12-5 12-0 chases
                                              Looks like you kept changing things around in here quite a bit... Did not follow along this year but hopefully this "experimental" year will help make 2015 a great season. Will definitely keep my eyes open for it.
                                              Comment
                                              • Grinder12000
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 04-21-11
                                                • 1809

                                                #618
                                                Yea - the things I thought of on the fly worked GREAT but failed catastrophically in the long run - lesson learned. Back testing for one year is not advisable! Go with the proven methods that have been laboriously tested.

                                                One thing I learned was when "I" feel something is failing and want to stop - don't listen to people that say keep it going. I think I was a better judge being in the trench then people following.

                                                If I stop putting MY money on it I should not post.
                                                Comment
                                                • J.M. Disciple
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 11-16-10
                                                  • 5154

                                                  #619
                                                  PHO is on a streak right? 18th 19th and 21st they won 3 ATS, followed by 3 losing at the spread. Shouldn't today be a D on phx to get a win? And a A for a fade? I am still confused it seems. I see you listed them as a home stand.

                                                  I have not jumped into this system yet, but do you think it is wise to jump into a system that is already up over 100 units? Kinda fearing the unknown 2nd half of the season with a doom switch...
                                                  Last edited by J.M. Disciple; 02-28-14, 06:52 PM.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Grinder12000
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 04-21-11
                                                    • 1809

                                                    #620
                                                    Partially correct - PHX was not on my list of teams at the beginning of the year so they were not one that we played. HOWEVER - as I have been going over the numbers this week preparing for next year (before I procrastinate) they SHOULD be on the list NEXT year . . . . . if they win tonight! ;-) A game worth watching (and playing because they are an H#A game)

                                                    As for the fade - no - they suck fading and seem to be able to turn things around way to often. fading them on a 4 or 3 game chase would being you -33 units over the last few years.

                                                    AS for jumping in - my only real worry is the beginning of the year and the end few weeks as teams play not to win but to rest and test young players.

                                                    OH - all the systems except the Overtime system (O#) are only certain teams. Some teams are proven nightmares. The Lakers would be 15-4 in chase the last few years, Indian would be 19-5 fading. The other teams like OKC are 28-0.

                                                    SO the million dollar question could be! Should we STOP playing OKC because they are due? Should we PLAY LAL because they have paid their dues?? Pick your poison!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • J.M. Disciple
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 11-16-10
                                                      • 5154

                                                      #621
                                                      Grinder are you following anyone else? I have been following VSI recently under service plays and burns recently as well for hockey. VSI is solid for 7 straight years. Heard burns has been consistent as well. If you played all teams with this system would it still make money or is it mandatory to remove certain teams?

                                                      Also you remember the 1-3-5 strategy? Do you think it will be good for this system or should we just stick to 1u chases?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Grinder12000
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 04-21-11
                                                        • 1809

                                                        #622
                                                        3/01/14 - Legacy Systems

                                                        All Systems as posted +62.48u (3-game chase) or +7.46 chase's
                                                        O# +23.32u
                                                        S# +11.04u
                                                        H# +28.12u
                                                        All Systems as posted +104.92u (4-game chase) or +5.68 chase's
                                                        O# +30.67u
                                                        S# +21.87u
                                                        H# +52.02u


                                                        Results

                                                        H7A - fade Utah Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
                                                        H8A - Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
                                                        Saturday

                                                        O8A - fade Washington Philadelphia 1.10 to win 1.00 **

                                                        Not really expecting a victory here. Wash is 21-8 AWAY and Philly is 8-22 Home, Philly is 6-20 as a Home Dog. But if you bet Wash and Philly wins - the chase is over and you are out 1.1 units.

                                                        It's all I got!
                                                        -------------------------------------
                                                        O9A - fade Toronto Sunday
                                                        H7A - Minnesota Wednesday
                                                        H8A - fade Sacramento Wednesday

                                                        H#
                                                        W L Pct
                                                        A
                                                        24 30 44.4%
                                                        B 17 13 56.7%
                                                        C 10 3 76.9%
                                                        D 3 0 100.0%
                                                        S# W
                                                        L Pct
                                                        A 16 22 42.1%
                                                        B 13 10 56.5%
                                                        C 7 3 70.0%
                                                        D 2 1 66.7%
                                                        O# W
                                                        L Pct
                                                        A 59
                                                        46 56.2%
                                                        B 21 24 46.7%
                                                        C 20 5 80.0%
                                                        D 4 1 80.0%



                                                        --------------------------------------------

                                                        I don't really "follow" anybody else. I watch in disbelief shaking my head at times. I like to keep things simple. I've played Wallcos NHL which seems solid and scary at the same time.

                                                        I'm not one for exotic betting schemes and frankly chases are normally outside of my comfort zone. You can't take somethign that does not won and make it a winner with an exotic betting scheme. You can increase your results, up and down, with more risk but a loser will always be a loser.

                                                        Tried labbies and I just don't enjoy them.

                                                        OH - interesting with the S# systems. Winning streaks always come out positive if you use ALL teams even with a few REALLY REALLY bad teams. In the last 5 years ALL teams you would be up 2.8 units (28 teams - 5 years 667-32, still have a few teams to go)

                                                        Lakers 15-4 are the worst

                                                        fading ALL teams -4.1 over 5 years

                                                        Denver is the worst 23-5
                                                        Last edited by Grinder12000; 03-01-14, 11:57 AM.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • J.M. Disciple
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 11-16-10
                                                          • 5154

                                                          #623
                                                          OH - interesting with the S# systems. Winning streaks always come out positive if you use ALL teams even with a few REALLY REALLY bad teams. In the last 5 years ALL teams you would be up 2.8 units (28 teams - 5 years 667-32, still have a few teams to go)

                                                          Lakers 15-4 are the worst

                                                          fading ALL teams -4.1 over 5 years

                                                          Denver is the worst 23-5


                                                          ... I still think fading a team that is W W W ATS is better then following. I really wish I had this research done. I know there are several streaks that team go on 9 10 or even 12 times in a row ATS, but so many other times it seems like it doesn't happen. Just need a better ratio then 8:1 to show a profit. I bet you will only lose 1 series out of 10 doing this and I am speaking out of 3 game chases or obviously if you lose 1 out of 10 on a four game chase you are negative.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Grinder12000
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 04-21-11
                                                            • 1809

                                                            #624
                                                            You can always do the research. Not too hard. All the logs are online and easy to see a year on one screen. Go for it.


                                                            OK OK - you have me curious - I'm looking at it.

                                                            Two teams done - 44-3 WWWL 42-4 LLLW Only two teams though and MUCH worse if you only do 3 game chase 39-8 WWWWWL and 34-11 LLLLLW
                                                            Last edited by Grinder12000; 03-01-14, 10:48 PM.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • J.M. Disciple
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 11-16-10
                                                              • 5154

                                                              #625
                                                              Originally posted by Grinder12000
                                                              You can always do the research. Not too hard. All the logs are online and easy to see a year on one screen. Go for it.


                                                              OK OK - you have me curious - I'm looking at it.

                                                              Two teams done - 44-3 WWWL 42-4 LLLW Only two teams though and MUCH worse if you only do 3 game chase 39-8 WWWWWL and 34-11 LLLLLW
                                                              Maybe its just this year that is up a little bit. At least I think it is with only 3-4 losses this season based on 3 game chases. If you finish the teams let me know please. no rush though, think you for doing those two teams and posting it.

                                                              PS are you still playing bovada triple up games? Ever play the cash games? They seem really soft at six max, working my way up the stakes short stacking it.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Grinder12000
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 04-21-11
                                                                • 1809

                                                                #626
                                                                3.2.14 - Legacy Systems

                                                                All Systems as posted +61.38u (3-game chase) or +7.46 chase's
                                                                O# +22.22u
                                                                S# +11.04u
                                                                H# +28.12u
                                                                All Systems as posted +103.82u (4-game chase) or +5.68 chase's
                                                                O# +29.57u
                                                                S# +21.87u
                                                                H# +52.02u



                                                                Results

                                                                O8A - fade Washington Philadelphia 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
                                                                Sunday

                                                                O9A - fade Toronto Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00

                                                                S4A - fade Philly Orlando 1.10 to win 1.00
                                                                -------------------------------------

                                                                Just not much going on with the other systems!

                                                                H# W L Pct
                                                                A 24 30 44.4%
                                                                B 17 13 56.7%
                                                                C 10 3 76.9%
                                                                D 3 0 100.0%
                                                                S# W L Pct
                                                                A 16 22 42.1%
                                                                B 13 10 56.5%
                                                                C 7 3 70.0%
                                                                D 2 1 66.7%
                                                                O# W L Pct
                                                                A 59 47 55.7%
                                                                B 21 24 46.7%
                                                                C 20 5 80.0%
                                                                D 4 1 80.0%
                                                                I'm going to continue to look at JMs idea about contrairian but the reason I never looked at it is that I don't believe it's logical. Everything about the NBA is streaky. After going through 180 team years you notice patterns and betting against the streak just seemed like a poor choice. BUT . . . . .we shall see.

                                                                Hmmmm I did find one team that is a contrairian play! Brooklyn. What I AM finding is that these contrairian chases take longer to finish. The "A" games are pathetic.
                                                                Last edited by Grinder12000; 03-02-14, 11:23 AM.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Grinder12000
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 04-21-11
                                                                  • 1809

                                                                  #627
                                                                  3.3.14 - Legacy Systems

                                                                  All Systems as posted +61.28u (3-game chase) or +7.41 chase's
                                                                  O# +21.12u
                                                                  S# +12.04u
                                                                  H# +28.12u
                                                                  All Systems as posted +103.72u (4-game chase) or +5.62 chase's
                                                                  O# +28.47u
                                                                  S# +2287u
                                                                  H# +52.02u

                                                                  Results

                                                                  O9A - fade Toronto Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE

                                                                  S4A - fade Philly Orlando 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN **
                                                                  let me know if any of you got a push - I'll remind you when the next "A" game is
                                                                  Monday

                                                                  O8B - fade Washington Memphis 2.31 to win 2.10

                                                                  Slim pickens in plays this week.
                                                                  ---------------------------------------

                                                                  H# W L Pct
                                                                  A 24 30 44.4%
                                                                  B 17 13 56.7%
                                                                  C 10 3 76.9%
                                                                  D 3 0 100.0%
                                                                  S# W L Pct
                                                                  A 17 22 43.6%
                                                                  B 13 10 56.5%
                                                                  C 7 3 70.0%
                                                                  D 2 1 66.7%
                                                                  O# W L Pct
                                                                  A 59 48 55.1%
                                                                  B 21 24 46.7%
                                                                  C 20 5 80.0%
                                                                  D 4 1 80.0%


                                                                  Word of warning - I've been involved with the worlds longest sleep study. We are on year 20 and Thursday night I'll be hooked up to electrodes and under a microscope as I sleep. Fridays games might be a little late but I'll try to have things ready by Thursday afternoon.
                                                                  Last edited by Grinder12000; 03-03-14, 12:44 PM.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • imotiv8
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 12-28-09
                                                                    • 892

                                                                    #628
                                                                    ***


                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • imotiv8
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 12-28-09
                                                                      • 892

                                                                      #629
                                                                      Originally posted by imotiv8
                                                                      Systems as posted +103.72u (4-game chase) or +5.68 chase's


                                                                      Are you saying the system's on a 4 game chase has made 103 units or has made 5.68 units?
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Grinder12000
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 04-21-11
                                                                        • 1809

                                                                        #630
                                                                        103 units which is 5.68 (oops, re-calculating) chases. So if you lost the next 5.62 chases you would be even.

                                                                        It's a way of showing risk.

                                                                        Less risk with 3 game chases but also less profits.
                                                                        Comment
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