Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

[Grinder12000]

3.19.14 - Legacy Systems

All Systems as posted +46.95u (3-game chase) or +6.68 chase's
O# +21.57u
S# -2.23.u
H# +27.61u
All Systems as posted +105.41u (4-game chase) or +5.71 chase's
O# +38.30u
S# +14.71u
H# +52.41u

Results

O18B - fade Boston Miami 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose
O20A - fade Toronto New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose
O21A - fade New Orleans Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
O22A - fade Detroit Denver 1.10 to win 1.00 Win

H12B - Dallas 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose
H17A - fade Detroit Denver 1.10 to win 1.00 Win

March Madness Sigh of Relief Thursday

O23A - fade Milwaukee Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00
O24A - fade Portland Washington 1.10 to win 1.00
O25A - fade Washington Portland 1.10 to win 1.00 sigh
O26A - fade Minnesota Houston 1.10 to win 1.00

H14B - fade Milwaukee Golden State 2.31 to win 2.10

S34B - fade Golden State Milwaukee 2.31 to win 2.10

H#	W	L	Pct
A	27	35	43.5%
B	20	14	58.8%
C	10	3	76.9%
D	3	0	100.0%
S#	W	L	Pct
A	23	34	40.4%
B	22	14	61.1%
C	7	6	53.8%
D	4	2	66.7%
O#	W	L	Pct
A	68	53	56.2%
B	24	26	48.0%
C	20	6	76.9%
D	5	1	83.3%

A tremendous weight is off my shoulders as I had my candidate forum last night as I'm running for City Council. Oddly I loath politicians.

[Grinder12000]

3.20.14 - Legacy Systems

All Systems as posted +46.54u (3-game chase) or +5.63 chase's
O# +21.37u
S# -0.13.u
H# +25.30u
All Systems as posted +105.01u (4-game chase) or +5.69 chase's
O# +38.10u
S# +16.81u
H# +50.10u

Results

O23A - fade Milwaukee Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose
O24A - fade Portland Washington 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose
O25A - fade Washington Portland 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
O26A - fade Minnesota Houston 1.10 to win 1.00 Win

H14B - fade Milwaukee Golden State 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose

S34B - fade Golden State Milwaukee 2.31 to win 2.10 Win

Friday

O20B - fade Toronto Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.10
O18C - fade Boston Brooklyn 4.85 to win 4.41
O25A - fade Atlanta New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00
O26A - fade Sacramento San Antonio 1.10 to win 1.00
O27A - fade Dallas Denver 1.10 to win 1.00

H12C - Dallas 4.85 to win 4.41

S35A - NYKnicks 1.10 to 1.00
S36A - Boston 1.10 to win 1.00

H#	W	L	Pct
A	27	35	43.5%
B	20	15	57.1%
C	10	3	76.9%
D	3	0	100.0%
S#	W	L	Pct
A	23	34	40.4%
B	23	14	62.2%
C	7	6	53.8%
D	4	2	66.7%
O#	W	L	Pct
A	70	55	56.0%
B	24	26	48.0%
C	20	6	76.9%
D	5	1	83.3%

[Grinder12000]

3.21.14 - Legacy Systems

All Systems as posted +51.75u (3-game chase) or +6.26 chase's
O# +24.37u
S# -2.33.u
H# +29.71u
All Systems as posted +110.22u (4-game chase) or +6.03 chase's
O# +41.10u
S# +14.61u
H# +54.51u

Results

O20B - fade Toronto Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.10 LOST
O18C - fade Boston Brooklyn 4.85 to win 4.41 WON
O25A - fade Atlanta New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00 WON
O26A - fade Sacramento San Antonio 1.10 to win 1.00 WON
O27A - fade Dallas Denver 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST

H12C - Dallas 4.85 to win 4.41 WON

S35A - NYKnicks 1.10 to 1.00 LOST
S36A - Boston 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST

Saturday

O24B - fade Portland Charlotte 2.31 to win 2.10

S37A - San Antonio 1.10 to win 1.00

H#	W	L	Pct
A	27	35	43.5%
B	20	15	57.1%
C	11	3	78.6%
D	3	0	100.0%
S#	W	L	Pct
A	23	36	39.0%
B	23	14	62.2%
C	7	6	53.8%
D	4	2	66.7%
O#	W	L	Pct
A	72	56	56.3%
B	24	27	47.1%
C	21	6	77.8%
D	5	1	83.3%

[Grinder12000]

3.22.14 - Legacy Systems

All Systems as posted +54.85u (3-game chase) or +6.64 chase's
O# +26.47u
S# -1.33.u
H# +29.71u
All Systems as posted +113.32u (4-game chase) or +6.14 chase's
O# +43.20u
S# +15.61u
H# +54.51u

Results yawn!

O24B - fade Portland Charlotte 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN

S37A - San Antonio 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

Sunday

O20C - fade Toronto Atlanta 4.85 to win 4.41
O23B - fade Milwaukee Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.1
O27A - fade Dallas Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00
O28A - fade Toronto Atlanta 1.10 to won 1.00

H14C - fade Milwaukee Sacramento 4.85 to win 4.41

S35B - NY Knicks 2.31 to win 2.10

H#	W	L	Pct
A	27	35	43.5%
B	20	15	57.1%
C	11	3	78.6%
D	3	0	100.0%
S#	W	L	Pct
A	24	36	40.0%
B	23	14	62.2%
C	7	6	53.8%
D	4	2	66.7%
O#	W	L	Pct
A	72	56	56.3%
B	25	27	48.1%
C	21	6	77.8%
D	5	1	83.3%

I just did a quick skim of other NBA threads and systems and was shocked. Most never actually post their YTD results but only daily results. Some post picks like $330 to win $300 which is sort of meaningless BUT does have YTD records BUT, all are in the $300 range which to me is again, is meaningless. Some I can't even find what the picks are.

I have yet to find (I'm sure there is one out there) that is successful. I'm not bragging but here are a lot of pickers out that are pounding their chests at being "even".

[Grinder12000]

3.23.14 - Legacy Systems

All Systems as posted +56.20u (3-game chase) or +6.64 chase's
O# +2470u
S# -3.64.u
H# +34.12u
All Systems as posted +113.67u (4-game chase) or +6.14 chase's
O# +41.45u
S# +13.30u
H# +58.82u

Results

O20C - fade Toronto Atlanta 4.85 to win 4.41 LOST
O23B - fade Milwaukee Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.1 WON
O27A - fade Dallas Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00 WON
O28A - fade Toronto Atlanta 1.10 to won 1.00

H14C - fade Milwaukee Sacramento 4.85 to win 4.41 WON

S35B - NY Knicks 2.31 to win 2.10 LOST

Monday

O29A - fade Oklahoma City Denver 1.10 to win 1.00

H#	W	L	Pct
A	27	35	43.5%
B	20	15	57.1%
C	12	3	80.0%
D	3	0	100.0%
S#	W	L	Pct
A	24	36	40.0%
B	23	15	60.5%
C	7	6	53.8%
D	4	2	66.7%
O#	W	L	Pct
A	72	57	55.8%
B	27	27	50.0%
C	21	8	72.4%
D	5	1	83.3%

Coming up we have the O# fade Toronto series along with a new S# chase Toronto which always makes things interesting.

Does anyone have any recommendations for baseball? My favorite sport that has baffled me for decades!

[thekoreanmang]

I'm new to your thread. So is today's pick basically DEN +10?

[Grinder12000]

thekoreanmang - OR +11.5 but basically yes. This is a 3 OR 4 game chase. Many people I THINK straight bet which is what the chart is. Three systems with each game of the chase A,B,C, or D.

We are fading Oklahoma City BECAUSE they played an overtime game and we are betting that they will lose ONE game ATS in the next four.

I believe you are the last hanging chad as all other NBA wagerers have either given up OR are locked into their system or form of personal hell. LOL

[Jeremylynn]

Nope IM still following... Just haven't been posting

[Grinder12000]

Oh yea, I know YOU GUYS are still around but very few drifters. Or should I call them Walkers? Lol

[Grinder12000]

3.24.14 - Legacy Systems

All Systems as posted +55.10u (3-game chase) or +6.64 chase's
O# +23.60u
S# -3.64.u
H# +34.12u
All Systems as posted +112.57u (4-game chase) or +6.14 chase's
O# +40.35u
S# +13.30u
H# +58.82u

Results

O29A - fade Oklahoma City Denver 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose

Tuesday

O20D - fade Toronto Cleveland 10.18 to win 9.26 YEE HAA!! Cleve 7-1 last 8 ATS
O29B - fade Oklahoma City Dallas 2.31 to win 2.10
O29B - fad Toronto Cleveland 2.31 to win 2.10 don't shoot the messenger!

H18A - Orlando 1.10 to win 1.00

S35C - NYKnicks 4.85 to win 4.10
S38A - Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00

I'll check in the morning for any more S# games

Have a situation that has not happened this year until this point. New Orleans not only starts a O# fade chase but at the same time starts a S# PLAY chase.

[Jeremylynn]

S35 knicks should be a C bet...

[JoepvH]

Hey Grinder, still following your plays! I thought you were asking for a MLB system or anything like that to follow. Have you found one already that you think is interesting? I looked at the JM thread Walco started but im not quite sure if the JM system is that good.

Keep up the good work!

[Jeremylynn]

Damn I've been waiting all day for the Cleveland line to move it's been at +4 all day and only 20% of the public on them. Must be the sharp money. Any suggestions. Take it now or wait

[Grinder12000]

****

[Grinder12000]

I JUST got +4.5 at Bovada.

ALL SHOULD NOTE

S35c - NYKnicks 4.85 to win 4.10 sorry - away from the internet all day (actually BLOCKED)

I'm still looking - its not like there is a big hurry - it's only been like 40 years LOL

[Grinder12000]

Oh yea, that's what I'm talking about. BOOM

[Jeremylynn]

Great night

[Jeremylynn]

I wish I wouldn't have noticed that knicks C bet and just played it as a B bet lol

[Grinder12000]

3.25.14 - Legacy Systems

All Systems as posted +50.33u (3-game chase) or +6.09 chase's
O# +27.80u
S# -9.59.u
H# +35.12u
All Systems as posted +120.98u (4-game chase) or +6.55 chase's
O# +53.81u
S# +7.35u
H# +59.82u

Tuesday

O20D - fade Toronto Cleveland 10.18 to win 9.26 WIN
O29B - fade Oklahoma City Dallas 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
O29B - fad Toronto Cleveland 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN

H18A - Orlando 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

S35C - NYKnicks 4.85 to win 4.10 LOST Thanks a lot Jeremylynn :-) Lakers? really? 51 points in the 3rd Qtr?
S38A - Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST LOST

Wednesday

O30A - fade Brooklyn Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00
O31A - fade New Orleans LAClippers 1.10 to win 1.00

H20A - fade LA Clippers New Orleans 1.10 to win w.00
H19A - fade Memphis Utah 1.10 to win 1.00

S35D - NYKnicks 10.10 to win 9.26 careful
S36B - Boston 2.31 to win 2.10
S38B - Toronto 2.31 to win 2.10
S40A - Detroit 1.10 to win 1.00
S41A - New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00

H#	W	L	Pct
A	28	35	44.4%
B	20	15	57.1%
C	12	3	80.0%
D	3	0	100.0%
S#	W	L	Pct
A	24	37	39.3%
B	23	15	60.5%
C	7	7	50.0%
D	4	2	66.7%
O#	W	L	Pct
A	73	58	55.7%
B	29	27	51.8%
C	21	8	72.4%
D	6	1	85.7%

Baseball - I looked at that JM system and it looks like a lot of hocus pocus to me. It had a losing year last year by a little and with the convoluted set of rules I'm not sure I can trust/tweak it.

Good luck with the S# series - that system seems to be the worst. NY Knicks are 30-1 in chases si it's one of those are they due? situations.

We are almost finished with the season so don't go and lose all you have won at the end (which seems to happen a lot on chases).

[dsaewra]

S36B - Boston 2.31 to win 2.10
S38B - Toronto 2.31 to win 2.10

Boston and Toronto are playing each other.

[Grinder12000]

Boston and Toronto are playing each other.

Of course they are LOL grrrrrrrr thanks!!

On one hand I have been amazed at the lack of times the point spread actually comes into play. Probably only a handful this year.

On the other hand I am amazed at how many times teams play each other in the same system or in different systems.

[thekoreanmang]

Hey Grinder, I've been trying to understand your system so I'm currently in the process of reading through your earlier posts in this thread but in the meantime, for tonight can you explain why you're fading both NO and LAC for tonight? Also the same deal with BOS/TOR. Thanks for helping a noob out.

[Grinder12000]

Sure thing - three systems

O# - Overtime = when a team plays an overtime game we bet that they will lose ATS once in the next 4 games so we bet against them.

Game 1 - 1.10 to win 1.00 they WIN
Game 2 - 2.31 to win 2.10 they WIN
Game 3 - 4.85 to win 4.41 they WIN
Game 4 - 10.19 to win 9.18

H# - When CERTAIN teams have a 4 or more home stand OR when CERTAIN teams have 4 or more road trips - we bet on or against that teal to win or lose 1 game in the next 4. HOME = bet to win AWAY Bet to lose

S# - Streaks - When CERTAIN teams win 3 OR when CERTAIN team lose 3 straight ATS bet for them to WIN or Lose on of the next 4.

SO - New Orleans had an OT game so we are betting against them, Boston AND Toronto won 3 straight ATS, both are "Certain" teams and both lost ATS their last game so both are "B" games.

Hows that!

I post records for 3 game chase AND 4 game chase. Many people (including me) are not fond of putting 10+ units on one game so the alternative is to play it safer, win less but lower variance.

YES- it's one of those weirdo things that almost makes no sense BUT, wins money so I just go with the flow until it's time to jump off the ship! Seems to work through out my lifetime as ALL systems fail sooner or later.
All the other garbage earlier was from experimental systems that ROCKED and crashed! These are sort of time tested . . .almost.

[thekoreanmang]

Thanks for that writeup! Much appreciated!

But just to clarify, you're actually betting both on LAC and NO as well as TOR and BOS tonight? I'm sure I misunderstood that.

[Grinder12000]

Well, you CAN but all you are doing is paying juice. So, I just skip the games as one will lose and one will win. Then just continue the series with the team that is still in the chase.

I take care of all that and normally don't BOLD the games that cancel.

[thekoreanmang]

Awesome stuff. Got it now.

Your system is pretty cool and comprehensive. I can tell you're a pro. From an earlier post, whatever city you're helping to manage must be in tip top shape! Detroit probably could've used your help!

[thekoreanmang]

also could you clarify why your unit performance is separated into two? thank you again

[Grinder12000]

I post records for 3 game chase AND 4 game chase. Many people (including me) are not fond of putting 10+ units on one game so the alternative is to play it safer, win less but lower variance.

of that is what you were talking about?

[Jeremylynn]

Another great night.... Well we done surpassed 100 units. You have a new goal?

[Jeremylynn]

Well with teams only having around 10 games left. I think we can at Least get another 10

[Grinder12000]

3.26.14 - Legacy Systems

All Systems as posted +55.80u (3-game chase) or +6.75 chase's
O# +27.80u
S# -5.12.u
H# +33.12u
All Systems as posted +135.29u (4-game chase) or +7.33 chase's
O# +53.93u
S# +21.93u
H# +59.93u

*NOTE - there is a disconnect between the above numbers and my spreadsheet so I'll look into that later today. I corrected the above to show what my spreadsheet has but maybe THAT is wrong! Just sayin' I'm within 5 from the totals.

Results

O30A - fade Brooklyn Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
O31A - fade New Orleans LAClippers 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose

H20A - fade LA Clippers New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
H19A - fade Memphis Utah 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose

S35D - NYKnicks 10.10 to win 9.26 WIN
S36B - Boston 2.31 to win 2.10 LOST
S38B - Toronto 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
S40A - Detroit 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST
S41A - New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

Thursday

O32A - fade Dallas LA CLippers 1.10 to win 1.00

H#	W	L	Pct
A	29	36	44.6%
B	20	15	57.1%
C	12	3	80.0%
D	3	0	100.0%
S#	W	L	Pct
A	25	39	39.1%
B	24	15	61.5%
C	7	7	50.0%
D	5	2	71.4%
O#	W	L	Pct
A	74	59	55.6%
B	29	27	51.8%
C	21	8	72.4%
D	6	1	85.7%

My plan is to review ALL picks and get everything matching for a final review once the season is over.

Also - how far do you want me to go. I figure I'll post picks until there are no 3 game chases left. This might leave us hanging on with an unfinished "D" game but . . . . .

It looks like ABOUT April 11th will be the last chance for a new series. Debating playoffs and how that could be done

[Jeremylynn]

Well I like idea of playing until you at least have enough games for the 3 game chase.

[Grinder12000]

I'm also thinking of playoffs and maybe we can get a few more units. Just make sure there are enough games in a series. Probably not many situations but . . . . . .

That god I had the NBA to get me through this horrific winter!

[thekoreanmang]

Another noob question (sorry!): are the games being at their spreads?

[Grinder12000]

Sorry, home brew club tonight.

yes, everything Is always ATS. (spread). I honestly have no idea who is actually winning games.