Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

[Afterimage]

Thank you for the great information! I wonder what the charts would look like if we eliminated all Portland wagers. I hate that team!

[bgilic]

Don't get me started on Portland. I will never go visit that city from all the rage they gave me this year

[Grinder12000]

Portland -

1. one of the oddest shows ever on TV is Portlandia!
2. I took a test on facebook a couple days ago (Rod Melotte) and the town I SHOULD live in is Portland. sigh! amazing

[Grinder12000]

01/23/14

All systems combined straight betting 202-174 corrected
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out

sigh - I don't know what to say

SAS2 40-32 -4.714u
41C SAS2 fade Oklahoma City San Antonio 4.85 to win 4.41 LOSE

EX =66-51 +16.00u
91B EX fade Boston Washington 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE

100C H3 NYKnicks 4.85 to win 4.41 LOSE
104B H3 Washington 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE
105B H3 Cleveland 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE
106B H3 fade Indiana Phoenix 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN

Thursdays Final

46A SAS2 fade Miami LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00

108B H3 Miami 2.31 to win 2.10


I'm put two numbers at the bottom of each post which will be meaningless to most people but are in fact the moving averages. One thing to note is that being better then horrible is STILL horrible but this gives you an idea of direction.

Two weeks ago the numbers were 696-679 BUY and we were in a 14 day BUY period resulting in a 77-44 record. The next day the index dropped to 627-673 SELL and we have 32-36 tailspin. The new BUY has resulted in a 3-9 record so take all this shit with a grain of salt.

404-393 BUY

I'll just keep plugging along hoping things turn around

[Trep]

Ouch tough day. Hope Phoenix doesn't blow this game

[Grinder12000]

A tough night among many tough nights.

[Afterimage]

This is no time to panic! Bet everything on Portland tonight! Ack!!!

[Grinder12000]

I've always been a big proponent of handicapping the systems and running with the hot ones an watching the cold ones waiting for them to turn back.

So with that in mind I have a new thing with a great new Excel Spreadsheet formula for Excel geeks

=INDEX(ALLSYS!E:E,MATCH(9.99999999999999 E+307,ALLSYS!E:E))
this says - take the worksheet called ALLSYS and using column "E", take the bottom value of that column and place it where this formula is located.

What this does is take a long list of numbers from one worksheet and transfer the very bottom value into another worksheet. It always takes the bottom value - no cutting/pasting and so forth.

So a chart like this is never touched for updating

This is the last 7 / 14 / 30 days of the systems winning pct

	7 day	14 day	30 day
SAS2	45.0%	47.8%	56.9%
EX	50.0%	47.2%	51.7%
H3,S3,O1	21.1%	35.3%	54.7%

[Mako-SBR]

We were so ahead that this down spell has been relatively easy to take, especially if we get a nice run soon.

[Mako-SBR]

This is the last 7 / 14 / 30 days of the systems winning pct

	7 day	14 day	30 day
SAS2	45.0%	47.8%	56.9%
EX	50.0%	47.2%	51.7%
H3,S3,O1	21.1%	35.3%	54.7%

Looks like it was smart to tweak the original legacy systems, turning them into the SAS/EX hybrids. Downward slide would have been a lot worse...

[Grinder12000]

01/24/14

All systems combined straight betting 203-175 corrected
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out

	7 day	14 day	30 day
SAS2	52.6%	47.8%	56.5%
EX	50.0%	47.2%	51.7%
H3,S3,O1	20.0%	34.3%	51.7%

Results

46A SAS2 fade Miami LALakers WIN

108B H3 Miami 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE

Fridays games
46A SAS2 fade Detroit New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00
37C SAS2 fade Minnesota Golden State 4.85 to win 4.41

93A EX Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00
91C EX fade Boston Oklahoma City 4.85 to win 4.41

105C H3 Cleveland 4.85 to win 4.41
108A H3 fade Golden State Minnesota 1.10 to win 1.00
104C H3 Washington 4.85 to win 4.41

109A S3 Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00

110A O1 Fade Boston Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00

"D" games - play at your own risk
SAS2 fade OKC
H3 NYKnicks

System chase records
SAS2 posted -3.71 (41-32)
SAS2 YTD +60.67 (161-118)
EX posted +13.89 (65-51)
EX YTD +28.97 (88-63)
H3 posted +2.04 (30-32)
S3 posted +8.07 (28-29)
O1 posted +6.96 (42-30)



418 - 408 BUY

[miczz14]

what happened to was C bet?

[Grinder12000]

what happened to was C bet?

Good catch - ADDED!

104C H3 Washington 4.85 to win 4.41

Washing ton has another H3 series starting on the 1st - Missed that last game! TY

[Grinder12000]

Durant is out for OKC. Line is up now at -3.5

[miczz14]

bad idea to fade OKC even without KD

[Grinder12000]

Then it's a great thing we weren't - I sort of figured the team would step up (but then again I've been like crap for two weeks). Gamblers over reacted a LOT! Line plummeted - I couldn't catch up LOL!

[Grinder12000]

01/25/14

All systems combined straight betting 209-178 corrected
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out

Results
46A SAS2 fade Detroit New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
37C SAS2 fade Minnesota Golden State 4.85 to win 4.41 in progress

93A EX Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
91C EX fade Boston Oklahoma City 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN

105C H3 Cleveland 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN
108A H3 fade Golden State Minnesota 1.10 to win 1.00 in progress
104C H3 Washington 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN

109A S3 Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE

110A O1 Fade Boston Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

"D" games - play at your own risk
SAS2 fade OKC LOSE
H3 NYKnicks Win

Saturdays known games

47A SAS2 fade Utah Washington 1.10 to win 1.00
48A SAS2 fade Indiana Denver 1.10 to win 1.00

No EX

103C S3 Utah 4.85 to win 4.41
111A S3 fade Portland Minnesota 1.10 to win 1.00

"D" game at your own risk
37D fade Minnesota Portland

System chase records
SAS2 posted -6.56 (43-33)
SAS2 YTD +57.82 (163-119)
EX posted +17.20 (66-52)
EX YTD +32.28 (89-64)
H3 posted +11.86 (33-32)
S3 posted +6.97 (28-30)
O1 posted +7.96 (43-30)

481 - 426 BUY

BUY Mode winning Pct 60.5%
SELL mode winning Pct 51.2%

I am SUCH a geek

[Grinder12000]

01/26/14

All systems combined straight betting 211-180 corrected
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out
Total units won chasing +40.60

Results +3.20u 2-2

47A SAS2 fade Utah Washington 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
48A SAS2 fade Indiana Denver 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

No EX

103C S3 Utah 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN
111A S3 fade Portland Minnesota 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE

"D" game at your own risk
37D fade Minnesota Portland Win

No football Sunday

49A SAS2 Orlando 1.10 to win 1.00
50A SAS2 Denver 1.10 to win 1.00

93B EX Brooklyn 2.31 to win 2.10
94A EX fade Detroit Dallas 1.10 to win 1.00
95A EX Portland 1.10 to win 1.00

108C H3 Miami 4.85 to win 4.41
112A H3 Dallas 1.10 to win 1.00

109B S3 Brooklyn 2.31 to win 2.10
113A S3 fade Miami San Antonio 1.10 to win 1.00
111B S3 fade Portland Golden State 2.31 to win 2.10

FINAL

It's been a rough January

Total units won chasing +40.60

	Winning Pct			Straight Betting Units W/L			Chase Units W/L
	7 day	14 day	30 day	7 day	14 day	30 day	7 day	14 day	30 day
SAS2	60.0%	44.4%	53.3%	3.2	-6.0	1.5	-1.06	-15.78	-1.86
EX	50.0%	47.4%	49.2%	-0.9	-4.0	-4.2	4.44	-11.24	-23.32
H3,S3,O1	40.0%	38.9%	44.7%	-5.2	-10.2	-7.6	5.22	-1.55	20.86

529-448 BUY

[Trep]

113A S3 fade Miami 1.10 to win 1.00
111B S3 fade Portland 2.31 to win 2.10

are these
fade miami, sas to win?
fade portand, gsw to win?

or the other way around. could be missing either one
just making sure =P

[miczz14]

@trep

you got it right

btw guys, boston is 19-1 SU 18-2 ATS on sunday home games.. just sharing some info you might want to hold bkn bet since it may go to C bet anyway

edit: well f*ck me right? why would you foul with 2 secs remaining. 83-79

[Grinder12000]

01/27/14

All systems combined straight betting 218-183 corrected
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out

7-3 +10.41

49A SAS2 Orlando 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose
50A SAS2 Denver 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

93B EX Brooklyn 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
94A EX fade Detroit Dallas 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
95A EX Portland 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose

108C H3 Miami 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN
112A H3 Dallas 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

109B S3 Brooklyn 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
113A S3 fade Miami San Antonio 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose
111B S3 fade Portland Golden State 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN

Monday's games

51A SAS2 fade LAClippers Milwaukee 1.10 to win 1.00 I laugh at this game (Bucks fan)

96A EX Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00

	Pblsh'd Winning Pct				Pblsh'd Strt Betting W/L u				Pblsh'd Chase W/L u
	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD
SAS2	61.1%	48.6%	53.5%	56.3%	3.3	-2.8	1.7	6.5	-2.16	-15.18	-6.96	-6.76
EX	53.3%	51.4%	51.6%	56.2%	0.3	-0.7	-1.1	9.7	3.52	-13.05	-28.96	19.20
H3,S3,O1	48.0%	43.6%	48.0%	53.7%	-2.3	-7.2	-4.6	5.6	7.46	1.93	15.07	44.03
ALL Systems	53.4%	47.7%	51.4%	55.0%	1.3	-10.7	-4.0	21.8	8.8	-26.3	-20.9	56.47

537-474 BUY

Here in Wisconsin our temperature right now is -26C and it's the warmest it will be for 72 hours. Tomorrow morning our wind chill is suppose to be -45C and the high for the day will be -22C. I'm hoping to get a video of a phenomenon that happens when it is this cold. It's how we entertain ourselves in Wisconsin winters, beer and phenomenon's. Stay tuned.

[Grinder12000]

edit: well f*ck me right? why would you foul with 2 secs remaining. 83-79

+

In some circles that was a good thing LOL sorry man!

BTW - I'm waiting on the Milwaukee line! +10 at least!

[miczz14]

+

In some circles that was a good thing LOL sorry man!

BTW - I'm waiting on the Milwaukee line! +10 at least!

that just proves that nba is unwinnable is you cap

good for the system though

[Grinder12000]

01/28/14

All systems combined straight betting 218-185 corrected
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out

Results

0-2 -2.20

51A SAS2 fade LAClippers Milwaukee 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE

96A EX Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE

Tuesday gaggle of games Complete

52A SAS2 fade Houston San Antonio 1.10 to 1.00
49B SAS2 Orlando 2.31 to win 2.10
53A SAS2 NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00

98A EX fade Orlando Detroit 1.10 to win 1.00
95B EX Portland 2.31 to win 2.10
97A EX Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00

Units won per chase				Units won per straight bet
	YTD				YTD
SAS2	-0.15			SAS2	0.07
EX	0.25			EX	0.07
H3	0.48			H3	0.00
S3	0.39			S3	-0.07
O1	0.18			O1	0.14

487-491 SELL*

Least amount of games played since the 1st week of the season, so like the stock market - low volume means an 0-2 means more for the weekly stats but overall not a REAL sell. a 10-7 came off the books replaced with a 0-2.

A typical week I've been having 55-60 picks, this last week 39

[Grinder12000]

Nevermind.

[Grinder12000]

01/29/14

All systems combined straight betting 221-188 corrected
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out

Results

3-3 -2.72

52A SAS2 fade Houston San Antonio 1.10 to 1.00 Lose
49B SAS2 Orlando 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose
53A SAS2 NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

98A EX fade Orlando Detroit 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
95B EX Portland 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose (of course)
97A EX Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00 in progress WIN

Wednesday

49C SAS2 Orlando 4.85 to win 4.41
51B SAS2 fade LAClippers Washington 2.31 to win 2.10
52B SAS2 fade Houston Dallas 2.31 to win 2.10
54A SAS2 fade Charlotte Denver 1.10 to win 1.00
55A SAS2 Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00
56A SAS2 fade Orlando Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00 * I'll explain

99A EX fade Orlando Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00
100A EX Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00

115A H3 fade Charlotte Denver 1.10 to win 1.00
114A H3 fade Chicago San Antonio 1.10 to win 1.00

113B S3 fade Miami Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.10

I remember where there use to be Overtime games - do they just have shoot outs now?

** Orlando weirdness - there is logic behind the madness. How can one tame in one system be play AND fade? Remember SAS2 is designed for 3 game chases. Back on 1/24 they had 3 away games which "for them" typically had them winning at least one of those games after winning 4 or the last 6.

NOW they have lost 3 of the last 5 and are Away Home Away and typically they lose at least one of those games. It''s a battle of a 3 game chase.

	Winning Pct				Straight Betting Units				Chase Units
	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD
SAS2*	41.7%	44.1%	50.0%	57.2%	-2.7	-5.9	-3.5	29.6	-13.26	-22.39	-10.47	54.11
EX**	50.0%	47.1%	54.0%	58.1%	-0.8	-3.8	2.1	19.3	5.00	-14.32	-19.04	32.87
H3,S3,O1	48.0%	43.6%	48.0%	53.7%	-2.3	-7.2	-4.6	5.6	10.59	3.86	19.74	44.03
ALL Systems	47.2%	44.9%	50.8%	54.6%	-5.8	-16.9	-6.0	54.5	2.3	-32.9	-9.8	131.01
* YTD includes November/December backtested numbers
** YTD includes November backtested numbers

525-512 BUY

Last BUY resulted in 19-20 YTD 190-125
Last SELL resulted in 3-3 YTD 144-137

[Grinder12000]

Since I really don't know where all this is heading and I want to keep y'all informed here is the 30 day moving averages of Winning Pct.

Meaning add up 30 days of W/L, then the next day I throw out day 30 and put in a new day 1.

With that said an interesting chart.

This is ONLY winning pct not chase numbers. But winning is normally a good base anything.

SAS2 started great but has been performing poorly
SAS2 was pretty steady - a rock and all of a sudden . . .
EX same thing but is starting to rebound
The Legacy Systems seem to fall HARD and then have a slow return to winning.





One thing I know for a fact is that the NBA is streaky, 3 years ago I bet EVERY fav for over a month and a half and was winning 68%, then a moving average hit and it all came back (but you couldn't sell short LOL) but very slowly and then up again.

I think wear and tear on players takes a hold and linemakers become not as good which makes OUR job actually harder. System players WANT good linemakers because they are consistent.


I just noticed that the fall in SAS2 coincides with the lack of plays - from middle 20s to middle teens hmmm

[Grinder12000]

Detroit and Atlanta was postponed - weather? I know the south is getting hammered.

01/30/14

All systems combined straight betting 226-193 corrected
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out

Results

EX stays strong

5-5 -4.36

49C SAS2 Orlando 4.85 to win 4.41 LOSE
51B SAS2 fade LAClippers Washington 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
52B SAS2 fade Houston Dallas 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose
54A SAS2 fade Charlotte Denver 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose
55A SAS2 Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00 posponed
56A SAS2 fade Orlando Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00 Win

99A EX fade Orlando Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
100A EX Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00 Win

115A H3 fade Charlotte Denver 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose
114A H3 fade Chicago San Antonio 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose

113B S3 fade Miami Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.10 Win

Thursdays know games

101 EX LAClippers 1.10 to win 1.00

57A SAS2 Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00

Who cares about SAS2 LOL

NOTE SAS2 "A" games are 36-22

I'm starting a little research to see just how the linemakers are doing.

	Winning Pct				Straight Betting Units				Chase Units
	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD
SAS2*	43.8%	44.4%	47.9%	56.9%	-2.9	-6.0	-6.8	28.3	-14.47	-20.85	-16.73	48.95
EX**	60.0%	48.6%	52.5%	58.6%	2.4	-2.8	0.2	21.3	9.28	-1.78	-20.07	34.87
H3,S3,O1	50.0%	42.9%	47.2%	53.4%	-1.1	-8.4	-5.8	4.4	18.17	3.61	18.85	46.03
ALL Systems	50.9%	45.1%	49.2%	54.5%	-1.6	-17.2	-12.4	54.0	13.0	-19.0	-18.0	129.85
* YTD includes November/December backtested numbers
** YTD includes November backtested numbers about a week

558-528 BUY

[miczz14]

what was the logic behind SAS2?

[Grinder12000]

The BASIC logic behind SAS2 is looking at how teams do after winning or losing 2 in a row (ATS) then 3 in a row then 4 in a row home and away.

As with many NBA systems it worked great until injuries started messing with linemakers. I have not been playing SAS2 for a while but will keep posting it. I do have some ideas for tweaks.

I would LOVE to see how the linemakers are doing, could be a clue. Might have to figure out how to quantify THIER stats.

Favs vs. Dogs - all games up to today - I think this looks like a lot but a few years ago I saw favs in the hundreds!

The one thing I notice is how we are sort of sporadic in January. Lost of dogs and then lots of favs

[Grinder12000]

SAS2	W	L	PCT	Units won per
A	36	22	62.07%	Chase	-0.27
B	8	12	40.00%	Straight bet	0.03
C	4	7	36.36%
D	4	1	80.00%
EX
A	40	36	52.63%	Units won per
B	26	12	68.42%	Chase	0.26
C	6	7	46.15%	Straight bet	0.09
D	4	2	66.67%
H3
A	16	22	42.11%	Units won per
B	12	10	54.55%	Chase	0.40
C	7	2	77.78%	Straight bet	-0.03
D	2	0	100.00%
S3
A	13	21	38.24%	Units won per
B	12	9	57.14%	Chase	0.46
C	7	2	77.78%	Straight bet	-0.05
D	1	1	50.00%
O1
A	30	15	66.67%	Units won per
B	6	9	40.00%	Chase	0.18
C	5	4	55.56%	Straight bet	0.14
D	2	2	50.00%

[Trep]

I'll probably follow next season when I have a little bit more time. Been doing SU last few weeks mostly on EX/SAS and it's not been going too well, but I really do appreciate the work and pretty graphs =P

BOL though Grinder and everyone following =)

[Grinder12000]

Thanks Trep - I feel the pain! I've been picking and choosing With SAS2 - just playing the "A" games and hoping things turn around.

I believe you and a few others got in at the very worst time!

BOL the rest of the year.


GOD SAS2 is sucking. Should I just give up on it? OR - I might start betting against SAS2, after all 43% one way is 57% the other way!

[Grinder12000]

01/31/14

All systems combined straight betting 226-193 corrected
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out

Last day of January - what a rotten month in so many ways - Not sure about when the Atlanta game will be made up. I guess Atlanta was totally f*cked up. They closed the city because of a storm and literally 10's of thousands of people were stranded on the highways in their cars for 16 hours. School children were stranded in schools for 2 days. Nat'l Guard was called in.

results

101 EX LAClippers 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
57A SAS2 Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE

I am seriously going to play AGAINST SAS2 - no really, I am

Friday's known games - in order of preference

103A EX fade Orlando M M M Milwaukee 1.10 to win 1.00
102A EX Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00 **(1)
96B EX Brooklyn 2.31 to win 2.10 **(1)

115B H3 fade Charlotte LALakers 2.31 to win 2.10 **(2)
116A H3 fade Toronto Denver 1.10 to win 1.00

117A S3 fade LALakers Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00 **(2)

**(3) See note about about SAS2

54B SAS2 fade Charlotte LALAkers 2.31 to win 2.10
47B SAS2 fade Utah Golden State 2.31 to win 2.10
55A SAS2 Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00

49D SAS2 Orlando play at your own risk! - I agree with miczz

That's it.

**(3) I was thinking about tweaking SAS2 or dumping it but then realized it's usable, just not as planned at the moment. Straight betting I'll just go the opposite way. In the last 30 days it's hitting 55.7% going AGAINST it when straight betting. Just sayin.

	Winning Pct				Straight Betting Units				Chase Units
	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD
SAS2*	37.5%	45.7%	44.9%	53.3%	-5.0	-4.9	-10.8	1.8	-14.47	-20.85	-16.73	-16.53
EX**	53.8%	47.1%	50.9%	56.3%	0.4	-3.8	-1.8	10.4	9.28	-1.78	-20.07	10.40
H3,S3,O1	50.0%	42.9%	47.2%	53.4%	-1.1	-8.4	-5.8	4.4	18.17	3.61	18.85	46.03
ALL Systems	47.1%	45.0%	47.5%	54.2%	-5.7	-17.1	-18.4	16.6	13.0	-19.0	-18.0	39.90

535-529 BUY


25882

[miczz14]

i think ill play SAS2 D bet

D bets are 4-1 ill take my chances