Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

[Grinder12000]

Good luck with the tease.

BTW - RPI-wise

Indiana last 10 games
RPI .634 (3rd)
Opp Winningpct .639
Opp-OppWinning Pct .560
6-4 ATS Last 10

Miami last 10 games
RPI .566 (5th)
Opp Winning Pct .491
Opp Opp Winning Pct .542
5-5 ATS last 10

[Grinder12000]

What did you guys have for Indiana. I won but what did you guys do.

worse case it's a push. Officially 5:00 it was +3. But I want to make the majority happy.

[bgilic]

I had a push GGGRRRRRR

[Grinder12000]

12/19/13
S1,H3,O4 = 58-50 +29.78u
EX = 39-19 +37.79u
Tot 67.57u

Results
64C S1 Portland 4.85 to win 4.41 LOSE
66B O4 Portland 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE BIG
67A H3 Orlando 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
35C EX Indiana 4.85 to win 4.41 PUSH
37C EX Orlando fade Utah 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN
40A EX Chicago fade Houston 1.10 to win 1.00 unknown

WOW

Thursday

41A EX Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00
42A EX Chicago fade Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00



And now you have a few days to decide how you want to play Portland - Saturday vs. N.O. at home. Watch it Saturday - morning games.

Indiana I'm calling a PUSH - I won 3/4 of my wager and pushed the other quarter. They play Friday at home vs. Houston

[miczz14]

well Por was due for a loss.. onto D Bet

[miczz14]

@grinder

maybe chi is due for a win ATS? maybe we should sit this okc a bet out? wat do u think?

[Grinder12000]

Actually going the other way miczz :-) added Chicago fade in the EX system. sorry! Gotta go with what is working.

On a weird note guess what system is picking Portland Saturday . . . . . . THE EX SYSTEM!! hmmmmmm They just came off 4 out of 5 on the road and have a home stand AND are winning for the most part. They lost games "A" and "B" by a total of 3 points ATS.

As I said - we all need to give Portlandia some lovin

BTW. Anybody know an easy and quick way to see shooting pct for games? There is a theory out there about teams hitting .561 or greater and losing ATS the next game.

OH - one more note - I made a couple tweaks to what teams we should be fading in the O4 system, we should have more FADES and Portland will go into the other column but it's so freaking close for them.

Fading they are 55-1
Chasing they are 54-2 They lost an extra one in 2008. As I have said - we're walking on the edge of swamp land with these systems.

S4 Overtime
Play	Fade
Atlanta	Atlanta
LAClippers	Boston
Miami	Brooklyn
Sacramento	Dallas
Toronto	Denver
	Miami
	New Orleans
	NYKnicks
	Phoenix
	Portland
	Sacramento

Also of note - the database I download every morning has Indiana winning so we are off the grid on Indiana and playing, they must use closing lines.

[Jeremylynn]

Check out stats.thegreek.com under matchup it's gives you like five games back to see their %. And you can look at scores to see the spreads of past games

[Jeremylynn]

Btw what's your opinion on this line -13, 65% of public on okc not sure where most of the money's at. You gonna wait to see if its gonna go down or jump on it early

[Grinder12000]

I jumped on it (well, not actually JUMP). OKC has crushed Chicago in the past (not that they play that many times) and Da Bulls played OT last night - I can't see it going down OR up but I THINK there is more pressure UP. But I'm certainly not an expert in line movement. LOL I'll look at some more ATS stats to convinced myself though.

----
in the last 5 years - not that these mean squat

Chicago Bulls are 6-13-0 ATS All Games (12 -> 13.5)
Oklahoma City Thunder are 5-1-0 ATS After 2 Unders (12 -> 13.5)
Oklahoma City Thunder are 124-99-2 ATS As Home (All Lines)

[Jeremylynn]

I got ya

[KC Needs Hockey]

I got really lucky had Houston +3.5 at 5dimes got the win

[Afterimage]

Locked in Indiana at 3.5, Bookmaker. Got the win.

[Grinder12000]

My main book never had the game up until I was gone so I used 5Dimes and had 1/3u at +4 1/3u at +3.5 and 1/3u at +3.

So if you guys want you can continue the charade in a 2 game chase, might work out. I WANT to call it a win as that is what it will looks like in the database. Opinions? I can continue it as a "provisional" chase :-)

Comments?

[Jeremylynn]

I got the win as well....

[Grinder12000]

12/20/13
S1,H3,O4 = 58-50 +29.78u
EX = 39-21 +35.59u
Tot 65.37u

Results
41A EX Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
42A EX Chicago fade Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE

Friday
68A O4 Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00 56-1 chasing after OT game
35C EX Indiana 4.85 to win 4.41 ** if you won you can maybe do a 2 team chase??
43A EX Philly fade Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00

Saturdays Known

64D S1 Portland
66C O4 Portland
67B H3 Orlando
69A S1 Portland fade New Orleans
70A O4 NYK fade Memphis

41B EX Oklahoma City
44A EX Portland
43B EX ?????
42B EX Chicago fade Cleveland

As many have learned recently in Chases they hurt when they go south. Learning from previous years use these chases as a guide. KNOW YOUR BANKROLL. Know when to save your winnings.

There is a shitload of money chasing Portland and there is no reason to lose all of your winnings all at once. Personally I'm putting a bundle on Portland but I'm not going to risk all of what I have won this year so far.

Chases are streaky for some reason. I said this a month ago on Wallcos NHL thread saying when things get complicated I lower my bets or skip the BIG bets entirely. Of course I was called stupid.

I won't put 14 units or whatever on Portland. I don't give a squat about winning my one unit of a chase. Those units are gone and won't come back. That is the dumb reasoning people have about chases, winning that one unit.

It is far far better to win a little then losing a lot. Know your bankroll so you can fight another day.


editorial comment

[voodoopulling]

check out hoopdata dot com. I got blacklisted yesterday for trying to copy the url in here. Guess that is frowned upon. If you go to the website, click on boxscores, then click on any team, it brings you to a game log page where you can see all game scores shoting %'s, eff, W/L. Pretty good info. Hope this helps.

[Grinder12000]

Thanks voovoo - I know of that place but it was off line for a long time this year - though it went dark. Good stats there - sort of the Baseball Prospectus in baseball or Football Outsiders of the NBA.

[Grinder12000]

12/21/13
S1,H3,O4 = 59-50 +30.78u
EX = 40-22 +38.94u
Tot 69.72u

Results
68A O4 Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
35C EX Indiana 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN
43A EX Philly fade Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE

Saturday - thank God we had some OT games to augment the slow schedule

And Portland - SERIOUSLY RIDICULOUS

64D S1 Portland 10.19 to win 9.26***
66C O4 Portland 4.85 to win 4.41***
67B H3 Orlando 2.31 to win 2.10
69A S1 Portland fade New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00***
70A O4 NYK fade Memphis 1.10 to win 1.00
72A O4 Dallas fade Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00
73A S1 Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00
74A S1 N.O. fade Portland 1.10 to win 1.00***

41B EX Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.10
44A EX Portland 1.10 to win 1.00***
43B EX Philly Fade Milwaukee 2.31 to win 2.10
42B EX Chicago fade Cleveland 2.31 to win 2.10

*** Best way
69A 0.00 to win 0.00
Portland 16.13 to win 14.67

At the moment Portland is -9

I am at a loss for words.

[miczz14]

^nah we can win por -9. i can feel it :P

oh can you happen to update the record for each system?

[bgilic]

What happened with #71 series?

[Grinder12000]

#71 will start tomorrow with an o$% Toronto

Thank goodness the EX did not bring up any NEW series! Or another Portland series.

H3			S1	Chase		S1	Fade		O4
A	9	9	A	6	6	A	1	4	A	18	12
B	7	1	B	4	2	B	2	2	B	6	6
C	1	0	C	1	1	C	2	0	C	2	3
D	0	0	D			D			D	2	1

EX	Chase			Fade
	W	L		W	L
A	11	10		13	8
B	6	4		6	1
C	3	0		1	0
D

[Grinder12000]

1 and 0. Let's bring it home tonight. LOL

[Jeremylynn]

Yea buddy

[imotiv8]

Just not comfortable with Portland, line is dropping. I'm gonna sit this one out

[Grinder12000]

Not a problem at all.

[Grinder12000]

I'll update everything in the morning.

Only known play is 71A O4 Toronto

I think the total was -16.86 units tonight! Well, what can I say.

[miczz14]

that was sad now im eager for monday's plays 11 games

[Grinder12000]

12/22/13
S1,H3,O4 = 62-55 +15.33u
EX = 42-24 +39.73u
Tot 55.06u

Results
64D S1 Portland 10.19 to win 9.26 LOST
66C O4 Portland 4.85 to win 4.41LOST
67B H3 Orlando 2.31 to win 2.10 LOST
69A S1 Portland fade New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
70A O4 NYK fade Memphis 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
72A O4 Dallas fade Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
73A S1 Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST
74A S1 N.O. fade Portland 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST

41B EX Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
44A EX Portland 1.10 to win 1.00*** LOST
43B EX Philly Fade Milwaukee 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
42B EX Chicago fade Cleveland 2.31 to win 2.10 LOST

Getting there

Sunday

71A O4 Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00 ***

45A EX Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00 ***
46A EX Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00

Just skip both games and we will pick up the loser later.

my fantasy football super bowl today.

[miczz14]

we're still up though

anything for monday?

[Grinder12000]

12/23/13
S1,H3,O4 = 63-55 +16.33u
EX = 43-25 +39.63u
Tot 55.96u

Results
71A O4 Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
45A EX Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
46A EX Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

Monday (no games Tuesday)
67C H3 Orlando 4.85 to win 4.41
73B S1 Charlotte 2.31 to win 2.10
47A EX Milwaukee fade Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00
48A EX San Antonio 1.10 to win 1.00
That's all folks

Lost my fantasy football superbowl. $60 coming my way anyway - I worst game of the year.

[bgilic]

Grinder I just wanted to say thank you for posting it early enough for us outside of USA to make our plays.

[miczz14]

H3			S1	Chase		S1	Fade		O4
A	9	9	A	6	7	A	2	5	A	21	12
B	7	2	B	4	2	B	2	2	B	6	6
C	1	0	C	1	1	C	2	0	C	2	4
D	0	0	D	0	1	D			D	2	1

EX	Chase			Fade
	W	L		W	L
A	12	12		14	8
B	7	4		6	2
C	3	0		1	0
D

[Grinder12000]

A quick look at the numbers and it looks good miczz. s1 fades seem to be the most problematic which back testing confirms. Of all the testing of various failed systems it's always the fading that is the bugaboo

thanks bgilic, I can get 80% done at night but there is always a few loose ends that need to be coverd in the morning.

No games tomorrow.

[Grinder12000]

12/26/13
S1,H3,O4 = 63-57 +9.17u
EX = 44-26 +39.53u
Tot 48.70u

Results
67C H3 Orlando 4.85 to win 4.41 LOSE
73B S1 Charlotte 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE
47A EX Milwaukee fade Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
48A EX San Antonio 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

Christmas

75A O4 Miami 1.10 to win 1.00
42C EX Chicago fade Brooklyn 4.85 to win 4.41 ***
45B EX Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.10
49A EX San Antonio 1.10 to win 1.00
50A EX Brooklyn fade Chicago 1.10 to win 1.00 ***
51A EX NYKnicks fade Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00

Best way to play if you are playing all systems

Brooklyn 3.75 to win 3.41 - cancel 50A


Thursdays known

66D S1 Portland
??A O4 Atlanta fade
44B EX Portlant