Can you post the spread you are using for your bets I am curious to see if I am using same spread as yours.
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I go to NBA Odds up on the upper right bar and look to see what would be the average people would get if they were getting off of work. today I had -3.5 but would have used -4 for the game as it would be the "after work" line many would get.
I don't like using the closing line as it is either GREAT or bad. So I use the line that is near 5:00 PM. If someone has an issue then I'll make it a loss. No one has issues with wins it seems LOLComment -
Time zones suck for me. Being in Australia I have to check the posts first thing in the morning for evening games and all afternoon games the bets have to be done before I go to bed.Comment -
bgilic - I'm -6 GMT you must be like +9?? are you a day ahead of is? Hell, you should know who wins already LOLComment -
12/01/13 43W-34L +21.35Sunday
Results
42B O4 Washington 2.31 to win 2.1u
43A H3 Washington 1.1 to win 1.0u
41B H3 Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.10u**
44A O4 Sac fade G.S. 1.10 to win 1.00u**
45A O4 LAClippers fade Ind 1.10 to win 1.00u
** best way to play it Bet 1.21 to win 1.1u on Sacramento
Mondays known games46A H3 ChicagoLast edited by Grinder12000; 12-01-13, 08:53 AM.Comment -
Checking in.
300 miles down, 325 to go today. Good weather. Cloudy. Dallas to St. Louis. Day 2 tomorrow. Can't wait to get home and get normal again.
guess I missed the Indiana game in. BooBooComment -
Have safe trip GrinderComment -
12/02/13 45W-35L +23.35Monday games - unless Port/LAL or N.O/NYK go into OT
Results
41B H3 Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.10u** +4.5
44A O4 Sac fade G.S. 1.10 to win 1.00u** -4.5
45A O4 LAClippers fade Ind 1.10 to win 1.00u -1.5
46A H3 Chicago 1.10 to win 1.00u
Known Tuesday games
44B O4 Sac Fade Oklahoma CityLast edited by Grinder12000; 12-01-13, 09:45 PM.Comment -
Grinder, not to be a PITA but could you put the color of the previous' day W/L in different colors than green/red. I'm color blind tinted in those 2 colors and I can't tell if it's a win or loss. Or put an icon or something next to it. Tank.....youverymuch!
Or BOLD a winner and ITALICS the loser.Comment -
are we gonna play NO fade?Comment -
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NO-Chi, AKA longest game EVERComment -
12/03/13 45W-36L +22.25Tuesday (for Americans :-)
Results
Lose 46A H3 Chicago 1.10 to win 1.00u -6.5
** I was ready to mark that a loss a half hour ago - the game never ended LOL
44B O4 Sac Fade Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.1o
Wednesday Known Games
48A H3 Atlanta
49A H3 N.O.Comment -
You silly Americans, always living in the past. Look towards the future like us Aussies.Comment -
If we don't keep looking in the past we will see an ugly reality that we are no longer a world superpower like we like to think. Saw a survey the other day that made me laugh USA is now ranked 32nd in the world in internet speeds. How in the world are we 32nd when we invented the damn thing. O well don't want to turn this into a political or nationality debate heres to OKC winning!Comment -
12/03/13 45W-37L +19.94Wednesday
Results
44B O4 Sac Fade Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.1o LOST
48A H3 Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00u
49A H3 N.O. 1.10 to win 1.00u
Thursday known games
46B H3 Chicago
47A O4 Chicago
Friday - MANY games!!
NOTE - I have taken Milwaukee and Houston off the O4 rosters due to poor performance.Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-04-13, 11:13 AM.Comment -
Have we back tested this system going back any number of years? I am just curious if there was any historical data to see.
So how do you approach 46B and 47A both Chicago bets? Just bet 1.10+2.20=3.30 unit bet?Comment -
No REAL backtesting on this thing so unlike Wallco there is no history - all theory. Plus unlike most systems this has a small amount of handicapping involved and I reserve the right to make game time decisions and tweak as we go. I don't want to be stuck on a rule and then NEED to play games which a monkey would see would lose. example - playing Milwaukee to win.
Basically you are following my lead on this and trusting me :-)
I make no claims that this will actually work and I had three goals.
Don't lose a lot of money
Win 20 units
Win 100 units.Comment -
So where is the latest status of your system's p/l?Comment -
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"P/l". What. Puck line? Lol.
profit loss +19.94. To be honest I'm not super happy but were keeping out head above water.Comment -
It really depends on what you call back testing bgilic. I've gone back 12 years looking at all the series. The Streak series as a whole, taking all teams is a winning theory, but not much. So I've use certain teams that over the years are better then other teams.
the Home series do not have enough hits to get a real idea but in real time last year it was a winner.
the OT series I did as the streak and took teams that were very good in the last 10 years.
that is why I warn people not to bet the house. I guarantee nothing except I put $ on every game.Comment -
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Are we doing 4 game or 3 game chase on O series?Comment -
All 4 game chases. Worst case is a little over 10 units on the "D" game.Comment -
Why are we betting on Chicago? They played a triple OT game two nights ago. Aren't they a fade?Comment -
Numbersneverlie - I'm looking at my spreadsheets and wondering that myself - I took them off BOTH O4 systems and am recalculating.
Looking at my algorithm - the rest of the teams don't have the number I'm looking for.
I have extra units on Chicago tonight - I might just reverse those units and take a juice loss to make myself feel comfortable.
That Overtime system is not THAT wonderful overtime. Last year taking ALL teams it lost 49 units! Not sure where Stiffler got his numbers for that one.
O4 Overtime Play Fade Boston 48-0 Toronto 56-1 NYKnicks 54-1 Miami 57-0 Brooklyn 49-1 Atl 56-0 Phoenix 39-0 LAClippers 44-0 Dallas 45-0 Sac 52-0 N.O. 49-1 Portland 55-1 Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-05-13, 08:42 AM.Comment -
UPDATE
12/05/13 46W-38L +19.84
Results
48A H3 Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00u WIN
49A H3 N.O. 1.10 to win 1.00u LOSE
Thursday
46B H3 Chicago 2.31 to win 2.1
Friday's known games
44C O4 Sac fad LALakers 4.85 to win 4.41u
49B H3 N.O. 2.31 to win 2.10u
52A S1 Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00u
53A S1 Portland 1.10 to win 1.00u
numbersneverlie noticed an error in the OT games and I recalculated that system and removed Chicago and a few other teams. That system is not THAT wonderful when looking at the league as a whole.
I'll repeat this yet again - this is a work in progress - I guarantee nothing except I will not lose a LOT of cash because if this crash's I wont continue it. But I do have my $$ on every game and over my lifetime I have done well.
Find a system, ride it up and when it starts to crash jump off! The upside is always higher then the downside if you know when to jump.Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-05-13, 08:49 AM.Comment -
Ok sounds good. Thanks for update. I noticed that and just wanted to make you aware. Keep up great workComment -
I still think that this system has potential with minor tweaks.Comment -
bgilic - all ears
On that note I've been going over some H3 data and I would like to add a couple fades coming up - what do you guys think. I'm going to so should I include them here?
I'm fading Orlando in a 4 game chase starting tomorrow and fading Dallas in a THREE game chase starting Saturday.
Lats year H3 in ALL teams was 148 - 5.5 for ABOUT +50 units! But the losses main losses were in the Fades. I have not been playing the FADES this year but might start to dip my toes in. Anyone want to come along?
and BTW - bgilic - what if there is a sports wagerer who is gay. think he would appreciate your Avatar?Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-05-13, 04:37 PM.Comment -
12/06/13 47W-38L +23.04* added 1.10u as I only gave *1.0u to a B win on 32BFriday
Results
46B H3 Chicago 2.31 to win 2.1 - WIN +4
44C O4 Sac fad LALakers 4.85 to win 4.41u
49B H3 N.O. 2.31 to win 2.10u
51A H3 Orlando FADE - NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00u
52A S1 Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00u
53A S1 Portland 1.10 to win 1.00u **
** I've been playing with handicapping (using my brain) chases for a while now. No "system" but looking at schedules so forth. 53A Portland was one that I had circled as a Handicapping chase but it's already a chase so . . . .
I think I MIGHT post some of my personal chases as a G1 chase at some point.
H
A 7-5
B 4-0
OT
A 14-12
B 5-7
C 3-3
D 2-1
S
4-7
B 5-2
C 2-0Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-06-13, 08:39 AM.Comment
