Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

[alexknyc]

What/When was the (A) game for series #30?

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Ever notice when you penetrate up you always lose? I feel your pain.

would a snap shot of my spread sheet help? Ill get on that tomorrow. Not looking good for Dallas.

That'll work!!

I pushed Dallas too. VVV

[Grinder12000]

Alex. It was on the 18th but I had multiple 28s. I'm re-doing my numbering. They were suppose to make t easier to follow but the way that spreadsheet was designed it was FUBR. I've never posted a system like this so it's a learning process.

Dallas, I pushed

[BuckeyeKaptn]

The way I did my spreadsheet for my mlb plays, was have worksheets for all the work, and then one just for the plays. As the plays came in, I just added it to the play sheet....continuing the numbering as I go. I also had a sheet just for the forum where all I have to do is copy and paste each morning. I adjust it with new plays, plays for the next days (if possible), notate the wins and losses...odds etc. Then I just copy it to the forum.
Once you get a handle on it, it's a piece of cake.

[Grinder12000]

I have my calendar of games and systems working great but another sheet with the numbering is confusing the way I have it. I'll fix it better this morning.

Ill also list list all games to date for you guys.

im just glad Dallas was not overtime. LOL. Calling it a push is ok? Closing line was -2.5 but I suspect most had -3????

[Grinder12000]

11/21/13 28W-29L +10.72 ** corrected

Results
18D S4 Houston fade Dallas 10.19 to win 9.26 PUSH next game Saturday night vs. Minn
20B S1 N.O. fade Utah 2.31 to win 2.1
26B S1 Utah 2.31 to win 2.1
25A S4 Cleve fade Wash 0.00 to win 0.00
24B S4 Washington fade Cleveland 1.21 to win 1.10u
29A S4 Tor fade Philly 1.10 to win 1.00u
30B S4 Port fade Milwaukee 1.21 to win 1.10u
31A S1 Portland 0.00 to win 0.00u

Today - A day to take a breath and reorganize - I felt like I was on a restaurant reality show and under a stress test.

27B - S1 Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.1

Tomorrow known games

##A S1 Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00u**
24C S4 Washington fade Toronto 4.85 u to win 4.41**
29B S4 Toronto fade Washington 2.31 to win 2.10u**
32A S4 Indiana fade Boston 2.31 - 2.1u
30C S4 Portland fade Chicago 4.85 - 4.41

** best way is to have 3.64 - 3.30u on Toronto and 0.00-0.00 on Washington

I bet Stifler is sitting back and laughing - were there this many overtime games last year? I do remember commenting once and then it calmed down.

I'll have YTD games later today for you guys keeping track.

[Grinder12000]

Double checking but this is what I have - this is playing BOTH sides of games - keeping it simple.

Doing this style of system is a learning process and finding out what style of record keeping works best is a learning process - I hope you all bear with me here. Couple redundant numbers and a few games early in the year that I did not post as they canceled each other. We're all good now!!

DATE						PLAY	10.72
11/1/13	L	1	A	S4	Minn fade	Okla	-1.10
11/3/13	L	1	B	S4	Minn fade	NYK	-2.31
11/4/13	L	1	C	S4	Minn fade	Cleve	-4.85
11/6/13	W	1	D	S4	Minn fade	G.S.	9.26
11/1/13	L	2	A	S4	Orl fade	N.O.	-1.10
11/3/13	L	2	B	S4	Orl fade	Brook	-2.31
11/6/13	L	2	C	S4	Orl fade	LAC	-4.85
11/8/13	W	2	D	S4	Orl fade	Bost	9.26
11/5/13	L	3	A	S1	Mia fade	Toronto	-1.10
11/7/13	W	3	B	S1	Mia fade	LAC	2.10
11/3/13	W	4.1	A	S3		Orlando	1.00
11/2/13	W	4.2	A	S3		Philly	1.00
11/3/13	W	4.3	A	S3		Orlando	1.00
11/6/13	L	5	A	S1	Okla fade	Dallas	-1.10
11/8/13	L	5	B	S1	Okla fade	Det	-2.31
11/10/13	W	5	C	S1	Okla fade	Wash	4.41
11/9/13	L	6	A	S3		Sacramento	-1.10
11/13/13	W	6	B	S3		Sacramento	2.10
11/9/13	W	7	A	S4	Brook fade	Ind	1.00
11/9/13	L	8	A	S1		G.S.	-1.10
11/12/13	W	8	B	S1		G.S.	2.10
11/10/13	L	9	A	S4	Wash fade	Okla	-1.10
11/12/13	W	9	B	S4	Wash fade	Dallas	2.10
11/11/13	L	10	A	S3		LAC	-1.10
11/13/13	W	10	B	S3		LAC	2.10
11/11/13	W	11	A	S4	Philly fade	S.A.	1.00
11/11/13	W	12	A	S4	Cleve fade	Chi	1.00
11/12/13	W	13	A	S4	Wash fade	Dallas	1.00
11/13/13	L	14	A	S1		Port	-1.10
11/15/13	W	14	B	S1		Port	2.10
11/13/13	L	15	A	S4	Tor fade	Mem	-1.10
11/15/13	W	15	B	S4	Tor fade	Chi	2.10
11/13/13	W	16	A	S4	Hou fade	Philly	1.00
11/13/13	W	17	A	S4	Okla fade	LAC	1.00
11/14/13	L	18	A	S4	Hou fade	NYK	-1.10
11/16/13	L	18	B	S4	Hou fade	Denv	-2.31
11/19/13	L	18	C	S4	Hou fade	Bost	-4.85
11/20/13	P	18	D	S4	Hou fade	Dallas	0.00
11/23/13		18	D		Hou fade	Minn
11/15/13	L	19	A	S1	Brook fade	Phx	-1.10
11/16/13	L	19	B	S1	Brook fade	LAC	-2.31
11/18/13	W	19	C	S1	Brook fade	Port	4.41
11/16/13	L	20	A	S1	N.O. fade	Philly	-1.10
11/20/13	W	20	B	S1	N.O. fade	Utah	2.10
11/15/13	W	21	A	S3		LAK	1.00
11/16/13	L	22	A	S4	Brook fade	LAC	-1.10
11/18/13	W	22	B	S4	Brook fade	Port	2.10
11/15/13	W	22.1	A	S4	Philly fade	Atl	1.00
11/19/13	W	23	A	S4	Phx fade	Sacremento	1.00
11/19/13	L	24	A	S4	Wash fade	Minn	-1.10
11/20/13	L	24	B	S4	Wash fade	Cleve	-2.31
11/22/13		24	C	S4	Wash fade	Tor
11/23/13		24	D	S4	Wash fade	NYK
11/20/13	W	25	A	S4	Cleve fade	Wash	1.00
11/18/13	L	26	A	S1		Utah	-1.10
11/19/13	W	26	B	S1		Utah	2.10
11/18/13	L	27	A	S3		Okla	-1.10
11/24/13		27	B	S3		Okla
11/27/13		27	C	S3		Okla
11/29/13		27	D	S3		Okla
11/20/13	L	29	A	S4	Tor fade	Philly	-1.10
11/22/13		29	B	S4	Tor fade	Wash
11/27/13		29	C	S4	Tor fade	Brook
11/29/13		29	D	S4	Tor fade	Mia
11/18/13	L	30	A	S4	Port fade	Brook	-1.10
11/20/13	L	30	B	S4	Port fade	Mil	-2.31
11/22/13		30	C	S4	Port fade
11/23/13		30	D	S4	Port fade
11/20/13	W	31	A	S1		Port	1.00
11/22/13		32	A	S3		Toronto
11/26/13		32	B	S3		Toronto
11/29/13		32	C	S3		Toronto
12/1/13		32	D	S3		Toronto
11/23/13		33	A	S4	NYK fade	Wash
11/25/13		33	B	S4	NYK fade	Port
11/27/13		33	C	S4	NYK fade	LAC
11/29/13		33	D	S4	NYK fade	Dnv

[imotiv8]

I had Dallas as a push also, does that mean that Houston fade is continued?

[Grinder12000]

Sadly OR gladly yes LOL 11/23/13 vs. Minnesota

[BuckeyeKaptn]

This is how I do it:
Each "separation/line" is one cell. Using #18/Houston fade as the example.
Column A has the play number (#18), Col B has either the team we are chasing or fading (Houston fade), Col C has the play type (s4), then the date of the A play...team we are playing (I leave it blank if we are not chasing). Column F (where's the x) is where I put what I won or lost. In this case, I put an X as I didn't play it. Repeat for game B, and game C. The last number, -5.50, is the total from games A, B, and C. It automatically tells me where I stand and what I need to play to come out even.

As Grinder adds a play, I just put it on the next row down. Btw, I haven't updates my sheet yet from what Grinder put out, above.

#

Play

Date

Play A,if fade

$$$

Date

Play A,if fade

$$$

Date

Play A,if fade

$$$

Total $$$

18

Houston fade

s4

11/14

NYKnicks

x

11/16

Denver

-2.20

11/19

Boston

-3.30

-5.50

19

Brooklyn fade

s1

11/15

Phoenix

x

11/16

LA Clippers

-1.10

11/18

Portland

2.50

1.40

20

New Orleans fade

s1

11/16

Philadelphia

x

11/20

Utah

0.00

21

LA Lakers

s3

11/15

x

11/17

1.00

11/22

1.00

28

Philadelphia fade

s4

11/15

Atlanta

x

0.00

22

Brooklyn fade

s4

11/16

LA Clippers

-1.10

11/18

Portland

2.50

1.40

23

Phoenix fade

s4

11/19

Sacramento

1.00

1.00

BTW, those are actual $$$ amounts, I only play for fun and to try and find an excellent system.
Trying to win $1.00 here!!!

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Better example, on the web. I also keep track of how well the A, B and C plays do with each type..s1, s3 and s4.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ainr1eDtdk5ZdGNpWk9uX1dJT1hWX2xTZHlTeGNnTFE&usp=sharing

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Thanks, Grinder, got it all fixed on my spreadsheet...plus added the D bets that I didn't have on the upload.

[Grinder12000]

Yea a few D bets early in the season but with cancelizations never bade it to the thread.

Hope it made sense. Home brew club night, I'm treasurer, good brew Abby dupple night. Whew

[mcrisp]

I think golden state and memphis is S4 A bet too. please check sir grinder

[Grinder12000]

Last game of Wednesday night. Missed that one. Thank goodness we do need more S4 plays. I WISH there was a place that listed OT games for past years.

[Grinder12000]

11/22/13 29W-29L +12.82

Results
27B - S1 Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.1

Today

24C S4 Washington fade Toronto 4.85 u to win 4.41**
29B S4 Toronto fade Washington 2.31 to win 2.10u**
30C S4 Portland fade Chicago 4.85 - 4.41
32A S4 Indiana fade Boston 1.10 to win 1.00u
34A S4 G.S. fade LAK 1.10 to win 1.00u
35A S4 Mem fade S.A. 1.10 to win 1.00u
36A S1 Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00u**

** best way is to have 3.64u - 3.30u on Toronto and 0.00-0.00 on Washington

Tomorrows known games

18D S4 Houston fade Minn
24D?
30D?
32B?
33A S4 NY fade Washington
34B?

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Last game of Wednesday night. Missed that one. Thank goodness we do need more S4 plays. I WISH there was a place that listed OT games for past years.

http://espn.go.com/nhl/schedule

About the best I can find.

Wrong one!!

http://espn.go.com/nba/schedule

[Grinder12000]

Yea but I'm looking for back testing so a team log with OT games would be perfect. I use WinPicks as by database and love it but no OT games sigh!

OH - in case anyone is wondering - this is my go to spreadsheet. It's pretty :-)

[Numbersneverlie]

Thank you Grinder for all your work on this. I have been shadowing and playing only the S4. It is the system that has always made the most sense to me. Extra quarter of play, extra minutes, and extra energy to fight for that win. Also usually one team had to fight all the way back to get the game to OT so it makes sense over the next few days they should have a let down. I used Covers.com and went back over the past few seasons to check how well this would do. Covers is the best for looking as past season results vs the spread. For the most part it does well. It has its losing streaks like all the rest of the systems out there but S4 for me is the best to play.

[Grinder12000]

I'll check out Covers, Ive been there but forgot about them. I have software WinPicks which is great for 20+ years of data and I can DL it into Access and Excel but they sell it for some whack job system creation which make zero sense.

Covers- wow - that is exactly what I was looking for.

I'm with you - S4s seem the most logical. S1 makes sense and S3 I never know if it is a matter of time OR some inherent reason for certain teams to never lose. Utah, 10 years and 59-0, Cleveland 62-1, and then the Lakers 48-5 Is it just random distribution?

But what draws me to S3 is that if you take ALL the teams over 10 (now 11 years) "following" it has a winning record. 1577-80 +92 units.

[Grinder12000]

Official notice.

With new data available I'm changing S4s so not ALL teams are going to under the S4 umbrella.

I'll have the list of teams I'M playing and will update on this post as I go. Time to get a Friday beer and some number crunching.

about today's games - going as is and will make a decision later.

the following teams are the ones we need to consider at the moment - the big one is Houston.

S4 PLAYS fading
New York Knicks 45-1
Toronto 46-1
Washington 42-1
Memphis 45-0
Atlanta 50-0
Miami 54-0
Orlando 30-1
Minnesota 29-1
LA Clippers 39-0
LALakers 43-1
Sacramento 48-0
Dallas 40-1

S4 NEVER PLAY - Following!!!! something to think about
Boston 47-0
Brooklyn 44-1
Houston 45-1 - note 43-3 fading
Denver 39-0
Portland 46-1
Detroit 43-1
New Orleans 43-1

S4 In-Between / break even or no play
Philly
Indiana
Golden State
Chicago
Cleveland
Charlotte
Oklahoma City
Utah
Phoenix
San Antonio
Milwaukee

I am TOTALLY open to discussion, we're all in this together.

[Grinder12000]

I actually more confidant now with S4s then before. I hated not knowing the real numbers.

unless I hear differently I'll incorporate the new improved S4s into the system. I don't know where Stifler got his numbers or how he did his S4s. He didn't have certain teams did he.

ill still play Minnesota but personally for half the units. I've learned that the best way to make money is to NOT lose it.

[KC Needs Hockey]

"I really miss coaching the Boston Celtics that team was on the up and up" said Doc Rivers never. Man the crapped the bed tonight 25-8 third quarter ouch. They are bad.

[staf]

Punched up S4 at sportsdatabase.com.
I'm getting 36-0 when fading Denver.

[miczz14]

@grinder

what do you mean by "S4 PLAYS fading" and "S4 NEVER PLAY - Following!!!!"? you play the s4 or you dont?

[Grinder12000]

S4 Plays means they are a better play for a Win and not a loss

I have Denver at 38-1 On 12/20/07 they went OT and won 4 straight. 38 -1 is only +19.5 over 9 years which falls short of my goal number (I'm pretty strict LOL)

[Grinder12000]

11/23/13 34W-31L +21.23

Results

24C S4 Washington fade Toronto 4.85 u to win 4.41
29B S4 Toronto fade Washington 2.31 to win 2.10u
30C S4 Portland fade Chicago 4.85 - 4.41
32A S4 Indiana fade Boston 1.10 to win 1.00u
34A S4 G.S. fade LAK 1.10 to win 1.00u
35A S4 Mem fade S.A. 1.10 to win 1.00u
36A S1 Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00u**

Today

18D S4 Houston fade Minn 10.19 to win 9.26
32B S4 Indiana fade Philly 2.31 to win 2.10
33A S4 NY fade Washington 1.10 to win 1.00

Tomorrows games

37A S1 Brooklyn fade Detroit 1.10 to win 1.00
29C continues 11/26/13

S4 - I hate switching horses in the middle of a stream and apologize but with new data I can not play the system as it was posted by Stifler in good faith.

I did the same strategy as I used on the S1 plays, looking back 9 years for every team. What I found was that some teams actually were better if you played to WIN instead of losing. It does make sense as playing to lose after OT games is a pretty common and well known strategy. I have no problem playing to win as I'm, at heart, a contrairion (sp?). If everyone plays one way - I'll take the other side.

S4s will not be Fading AND Playing - just like S1s - chases in progress will continue as is.

Playing to WIN just seems wrong - THUS - On certain teams I will LOVE to play to win. I will go against the crowd anyday

I'll play the 18D S4 Houston fade Minn as is but personally I'm putting 1/2 as much. I worry more about losing more then I do winning. I've learned in poker you win more by NOT losing.

Feel free to jump off the bandwagon and call me an idiot - I feel MORE comfortable with S4s now.

Also feel free to fact check.

BTW - lost in the S4 conversation was a good night last night - everybody won Chicago didn't they?

[Grinder12000]

The S1 and S4 Teams I'm playing * Thank you Numbersneverlie for Covers - I had been looking and asking for a site that posted the logs in a easy to read fashion.

S4 Overtime			S1 Streak
Play	Fade		PLAY	Fade
Boston 47-0	New York Knicks 45-1		Brooklyn 55-1	Brooklyn 63-1
Brooklyn 44-1	Toronto 46-1		Cleveland 63-1	Mia 53-1
Houston 45-1	Washington 42-1		Charl 42-0	LAL 81-2
Denver 39-0	Memphis 45-0		Orlando 57-1	N.O. 54-1
Portland 46-1	Atlanta 50-0		Golden St 55-1	Okla 44-1
Detroit 43-1	Miami 54-0		Port 50-1	Port 51-1
New Orleans 43-1	LA Clippers 39-0		Utah 59-0
	LALakers 43-1
	Sacramento 48-0
	Dallas 40-1

[Numbersneverlie]

Anytime. Happy I could help. Appreciate all the effort. Hopefully with covers being easy to use we can come up with systems that hit near or better than 60% and we can all make money together. Good luck

[Numbersneverlie]

My only thing with choosing teams to fade/follow is when you back test over a historical period such as 10 years, those teams, players, coaches, management, etc. have all changed. Just because a team was good off overtime in early 2000s doesn't mean that trend will follow today. I think the most powerful system we can put our heads together for is one in which the play is independent of what or who specific team is playing. Just my two cents

[Afterimage]

Thanks Mr. Grinder! Always appreciate the effort. Yes, won the Chicago game.

Avoiding the big loses is the way to go. Having a blast with this!

[Grinder12000]

Numbers - I agree also. The thing is finding something that works and go with it as long as possible. I don't know squat about the NBA so by doing this I can ride it to see what happens. On this I would rather go with the numbers.

At at least that is my 3rd beer explanation

My buddy says I'm flying by the seat of my pants, but enjoy the ride. LOL

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Grinder...thought I posted this in this thread, but I didn't:

If you have 2007 excel or better, go to:


http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=101371839&pa ge=3


post #58 and download the NBA spreadsheet. From this spreadsheet, you can download years worth of info. DeGen is awesome. It also has for NFL, NHL and MLB.


I posted it in a Cover's thread. I was wondering why you were asking for the information on where to get the OT info!! The thread I directed you to has automated systems of all kinds...including Stiflers from a year or so ago. Some might not work as it happens when websites change.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Damn...was just getting pissed cause I missed the Minnesota bet because it was so high up on my spreadsheet. Now looking at it...it might be a good thing.

[Grinder12000]

BuckeyeKaptn - I must have missed it or brain cramped it! Damn It Houston. I knew I felt bad juju.

Numbersneverlie - That is shy I like the S1 system - if you put ALL teams together it's still a winning system, just not as much.