AFL opening spreads

[brettels]

I said it looks better, haven't said i'm taking the bet. will have to make a multi bet starting with essendon. will see later in the week with announced teams etc....

that was a good article but anything out of sportsalive's mouth should not be taken to seriously at all.

[Gee]

lol, yup. Sportsalive come out with a public statement like that, then open geelong as favourites. Typical bookies games.

Centrebet have a line out now - 4.5. I will wait to see if i take it, but probably would have some on that.

yeah, i'm already looking at an Essendon/Carlton multi I think. Will wait until the teams are named on Thursday for any action though...

[Gee]

Took the Raiders at -110 tonight. 1x.

I cbf spreadsheeting my non AFL plays and I know nothing about NRL, so don't tail me

[Alt75]

From Centrebet

[Gee]

Yup, already seen those. Thanks buddy. I like having easy access in my thread too

Its confirmed my view of no early plays...

Look at all those crappy big spreads... 5 of the 7 games between 22.5 and 44.5.

I think we'll be looking at totals, ML parlays or PYOL parlays this week. hrm

[Alt75]

No probs

I think I'm gonna take note of your philosophy on large spreads. Geelong at Skilled are good for covering -39.5 + against the bottom 6, anything else over that I'm going to leave alone.

Good luck on Canberra, I'm on the 1-12 and Canberra/Under, the SU/Total double was actually better value at sportingbet than bet365.

[brettels]

Anyone a pyol multi maker?

[Gee]

Easy win on the Raiders last night. It was a semi-centrebet fade and line movement made it a cert.

Alt: bad luck on the bets. I don't see why you don't just take the straight bet. Its hard enough getting one right (theoretical odds of 50%), let alone two. You obviously liked the raiders the most, so why not just back them at a nice -110? Anyway, each to their own

brettels: as a general rule, no. I haven't really figured out the value of a point in AFL, but suspect they are over juiced. For some reason, i haven't actually done the maths on these - i've found enough value in the regular ATS plays, but this week i'll have to check them out and will report back. I suspect they'll be operating at 6-7% though. After looking at the card, I'd like to tease a few games...

I have decided not to add any more to my Geelong bet.. simple reasoning - I'm going to the game on Friday and sitting in the Eagles members area. I think a bigger bet might cause tensions

[Alt75]

Easy win on the Raiders last night. It was a semi-centrebet fade and line movement made it a cert.

Alt: bad luck on the bets. I don't see why you don't just take the straight bet. Its hard enough getting one right (theoretical odds of 50%), let alone two. You obviously liked the raiders the most, so why not just back them at a nice -110? Anyway, each to their own

brettels: as a general rule, no. I haven't really figured out the value of a point in AFL, but suspect they are over juiced. For some reason, i haven't actually done the maths on these - i've found enough value in the regular ATS plays, but this week i'll have to check them out and will report back. I suspect they'll be operating at 6-7% though. After looking at the card, I'd like to tease a few games...

I have decided not to add any more to my Geelong bet.. simple reasoning - I'm going to the game on Friday and sitting in the Eagles members area. I think a bigger bet might cause tensions

LOL Gee, I appreciate your advice and sympathy, but I think I only need the advice

You are spot on mate. Each to their own indeed, but my own isn't really getting me anywhere. So, yes I've finally learnt my lesson on getting too cute with the margins and doubles. I'm actually going to kind of follow your lead and play straight ML's around $1.70 min as the main bet instead of props. I actually wrote up a betting guideline in notepad last night around half time when the score was 8 points off the total to take ML's before props etc, I could have made a killing off UFC on the weekend if I wasn't so greedy.

I'm going to open it when I log in to my accounts. If I don't follow it all of you feel free to point out how easily fools and money are parted in my thread

[brettels]

what do people think of sportsbet.com.au new website? im waiting for there PYOL markets and will put together a multi, see if you all think its worth it.

[Alt75]

Looking pretty nice, it's about time sportsbet added a decent slip/calculator, exactly like bet365/titanbet I'm stoked. Like how the slip floats so it's always in view regardless of where you scroll on the page too.

brettels: the pyol markets are up now

haha I just logged into sportingbet, wondered why about 50% of my outlay on the canberra bets was returned, after the rugby on monday night I chucked a whole 25 cents, rounding off change on a trifecta on the trots in hobart, blindly in order of odds without even checking the form guide or intending to listen to it as race was about 20 mins away I logged off the books started talking shit with friends on IM and had forgotten about it, turns out it came off @ $10 so $2.50 of the $4 plus the twins/under combo rounding off 25 cents on bet365 yesterday has pretty much recouped the canberra 1-12 & under blunder.

I don't know what to do about SOO tonight. Recent experience says take Queensland ML but at highest odds of $1.57 it doesn't really appeal to me. Weather is going to be fine in Queensland tonight so I'm not sure about total. Both games have been 28 and it's at 34.5. Not really keen on a total after Monday night.

[brettels]

not yet, only two matches have the PYOL odds on sportsbet. can forgive them as they have new site to manage but come on sportsbet get a move on.

[goty0405]

I'm looking at adding AFL to my portfolio so its been interesting reading how you guys attack it. Thanks

[brettels]

now they are up back with a multi soon

[brettels]

ok, heres what i got critisize or whatever you like, follow if you wish i will not be held responsible lol

carlton -13.5
port adelaide +57.5
collingwood -13.5
sydney -11.5
richmond +49.5
hawthorn -17.5
west coast +43.5

total odds 4.32

opinions?

[Alt75]

7 legs for 4.32, coming from a multi junkie thats a bit risky, i haven't really looked at the games this week though.

[brettels]

True but if you looke at the original lines you could place that with some confidence (probably lose now I said that).

[Alt75]

I've tried 2 legs at around 1.43 and 3 at around 1.26 to just get evens and that gets hairy. If I'm gonna risk 7 legs I'd rather do it with my usual picks and hope I sweep for a chunky bonus of over 20/1 to hundreds. Do what thou wilt though, if you think it's safe to play follow your heart, not to sound like some cheesy 80's ballad.

I was just thinking of Queensland/Hawks/Swans at $2.00 but after Swans losing to Crows and then travelling to Adelaide, back to Sydney and then to Gold Coast this week I'm even a little wary of them winning SU 100%, let alone covering 12, remember Swans can be in nail biters.

[Gee]

All the plays look pretty safe brettels, but so do all massive chalk parlays. We all know that something inevitably goes wrong with these. Good luck though! I think the last leg bulldogs is probably your danger game.

Have looked at the centrebet PYOL now. Its not great... about 5.5%, which isn't ideal, considering their normal spreads are at 4%.

The new sportsbet PYOL has reminded me of why I hate sportsbet. I haven't seen any ads, but no doubt they are heavily advertising their PYOL as a great, new way to bet. its running at about 7.5%, which is a complete fukn joke. I won't be going near them again in a hurry.

[brettels]

well i put it on for a whopping $1.... still waiting for teams etc tommorow before i make a decision on what actual worthy bets will be played.

gee i don't know what your on about with the 5.5% and 7.5% but i see pyol as a good way to get say hawks who are 1.09 at a line of about 1.2 which will definately be beaten as a way to juice up a multi thats about it really. will play a pyol every week.

[Gee]

Sorry Brettels... I'm probably talking another language.

It is to do with how juiced a line is.

e.g. a 1.92 line is 4%. a 1.90 line is 5%.... Sportsbet PYOL lines are the equivalent of $1.85 lines. Centrebets are about $1.88. It means you aren't getting great value buying points, so you really need to pick your sports

[brettels]

I had a feeling thats what you meant. Have seen sportsbet have better odds than centrebet on the PYOL lines before but not that often. Centrebet were first with PYOL's in australia(correct me if im wrong) so they should be expected to be better. If i whinge to sportsbet they might make there odds better, maybe next year.

Your avatar is distracting, in a fun way haha

[Lookingtostart]

Any thoughts on Richmond vs Essendon? Richmond to cover looks good, every other game seems 50/50 to me, this one's a hard round for me.

[Alt75]

Hard to call, after last week I'm leaning the opposite, although see this one as a 50/50.

How will Richmond bounce back after a flogging and how will Essendon return after beating the top side after a 5 loss streak which ironically was started by Richmond in rd 9. Essendon will have their confidence back and will be seeking revenge. I have no confidence in either side, will probably play the total for over if it's around 170/180, although I expect it to open closer to 200. - depending on weather for Saturday night.

I think your Weegles are good for this week, this is the time of the season the bye comes in handy, they had time to rest up and even though Cats will want to bounce back and not drop 2 in a row I think WC kill them in the midfield win SU may even win big. I might chance a little on the -24.5 or -39.5

[Gee]

Yeah, tough game to call.

My initial lean was Essendon, but the more I look at it, the less sure I am. Dons are overvalued after beating Geelong and Richmond are undervalued after losing to a very good Carlton side. Its a spot where I am generally quite loathe to lay the points on the favourite. Apart from last week, Essendon have been really struggling. Anything around 190, I'm going to take the over.

Its definitely a hard round with the big spreads. AFL can be very fickle with point spreads.

[brettels]

new rule, im not betting on or against richmond ever again. really makes it difficult to watch when you support them but have bet against them, i really don't like getting comfortable wanting the team i love to lose for money lol........i will tip essendon and the 1-39 margin may be the value there.

[brettels]

bugger it, good value on essendon this week. rule removed.

[Alt75]

Essendon are too short for the ML, if they didn't beat the Cats last week it'd be near on a PK. I'd be kinda leaning Essendon 1-39 too but given the nature of the sides I wouldn't want the margin capped at 39 after Richmond got blown out by 100 last week, while a repeat of that wide a margin isn't likely this is one you cant really predict as last weeks results for both sides aren't a good indicator of their form for the season, are Richmond done, was it Carltons day - are Essendon back, did the Cats take them lightly, too many unknowns, you'd think it should be close but Richmond could be blown out over 40 with a younger side losing confidence and hope for finals yet remember they've beaten the Bombers this year, they match up well and will want to bounce back after getting humiliated (sorry, not rubbing it in). So, I can also see them winning a close one or even 5-6 goals if Bombers lapse after their unexpected win, the pressure is kind of off them now.

value is in the total going over 190/200 given the weather is fine/dry imo, both sides can regularly put up 100 + win or lose.

[donkson]

Essendon are still overvalued, but their lineup is far far better than the one that played Richmond earlier. No bet for me.

[kingsr]

Careful on WC...most teams suck after a bye!

[Gee]

The fact that we are even talking about richmond v bombers means -200 is a bit short. Can't back the tigers here either imo.

Really looking forward to tomorrows game. Going to have to stay calm. Eagles fans are pretty feral.

[Alt75]

Careful on WC...most teams suck after a bye!

In the past month St Kilda and Collingwood have both won off the bye last 2 weeks, Port did ok against West Coast and Richmond came within 10 points of the Swans off their bye so it's 2-2 the last 4 games. It's really only been the lower sides that have struggled off the byes. Collingwood, Geelong won off theirs Carlton came within 2 points of Geelong. West Coast thrashed Melbourne off their last one. At this end of the season it's more beneficial than harmful. Geelong having to travel across the country after a tough game and only a 6 day week between games. Eagles having the rest and home ground advantage on a roll after hustling Carlton. I'm on the Eagles and Over with dry conditions: partly cloudy, light winds forecast for Perth.

The stat that worries me is West Coast haven't beaten Geelong since rd 10 2006 at Skilled, round 2 2005 was Eagles last home win over the Cats.

[borgsta]

Careful on WC...most teams suck after a bye!

Have you actually bothered to research that or are you just going on with the media myth. Look at the actual teams that have had the bye and then look at who they played. In about 75% of the rounds the team coming off the bye has been the worse team.

Alt75, WCE have been crap since 2007 and Geelong have been the best team in the comp for the same period. That stat doesn't worry me at all.

No plays this week for WCE vs Geelong and Ess vs Rich. I thought Gee would be $1.50-$1.60 initially and was going to play WCE at the line but not worth it either way.

Port at the line will most likely be a 2u play for me.

[Alt75]

Yeah I should have added that Cats were the premier team in the comp during that time and WC were in a downturn after a dynasty period, but I mean that's the only thing that really stands out as a positive for the Cats and that we know travel isn't an issue for them. That record is not say comparable to Melbourne's record at Etihad. Everything else is in favour of the Eagles, this year when it matters. IMO of course

[Lookingtostart]

I'd be careful betting WC, they have six key outs (Butler, Hams, Neates, Lynch, McGovern and Waters, I might be wrong about some of these) and that's too much for a team coming up against a champion team.

Even though Joel Selwood's out for the Cats and they're playing away, they have the quality to make up for that.

If I bet on Geelong, it would be a win win situation for me, because if the Cats win I win money and if the Eagles win then that would be absolutely AMAZING for my team. On the other hand it would also be a lose/lose situation as well, so I'm going to leave this one alone

Even though I think the Cats will win, I hope the Eagles sparkle and win

If the eagles are to win, I call Naitanui to take a freakin' humongous mark with 1 second to go in the goal square to kick the winning goal!