That total is moving up. Like the over myself.
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Nice. Hopefully we both cash.
I also played 1x on pies -28.5.
I will consider stopping posting if i lose this.
edit: I only mean I'll stop posting, because of the double kick in the teeth that you get when you lose, because of the fact that its public.
plus I don't know if anyone is actually tailing these plays, which would make me feel worse when they lose. A total of 5x on Pies (TT and Spread).... Losing $605 yesterday hurt (even though I was +$700 on the weekend before that).Last edited by Gee; 06-12-11, 11:35 PM.Comment -
I hope these pricks don't do a Sydney on me. 3 goals 6 to start the game... could easily be 5 goals 4 or better
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Collingwood is a moterfking lockComment -
Except the fact that they havent kicked a goal half way through the 3rd quarter.
Getting nervous... just waiting on the Pies 5 goal in 5 minute burst.Comment -
You dOnt have to worry, collingwood has 100% possession anywayComment -
Hope you win Gee, margin between 28 and 39 would be perfect.
Be a shame for you to stop posting, not many Aussies on here and you're one of the best contributors to this sub forum. Sure it sucks having your losses public, most of my bets are edited with a
afterwards but at least none of us Aussies and the foreigners who follow Aus footy codes are douchebags rubbing salt in wounds over unlucky beats like in most of the other sub fora.
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OK
I think we're doing OK here. 5 more goals. I'm hoping for your standard Pies final quarter.
I didn't post before, but I also have the u/183.5 for 0.5x. My idea of a hedge on the Pies TT - won't t help much if that loses.Comment -
Alt: i'm not too fussed about the haters. I find we don't get them much, if at all, here in more sports. Its more that when I lose I kick myself twice, because I know I need to come sum it up here etc., when I would rather just move on and not think about it.
Just tilting a bit I think. If this TT doesn't go over, I will be pretty pissed.Comment -
Damn, wish i backed the TT over. Melbourne are fuking horrible. Dean Bailey is a horrible coach. Should be sacked.Comment -
TT over is ****** Ace.
Need 5 goals in last by Pies. Still a better than even money chance, but it should really have gone over by now.
Pies -31.5 was the lock.Comment -
Nup, this ain't going over.
Pies in cruise control.
They just havent tried since half time
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TT was 105.5?
All came good in the end, well played sir. You can buy yourself a beer and relax for the evening
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Typical 3rd quarter by the Pies. Got me worried (as they ALWAYS do in 3rd quarters) then stormed home to hold the cover, get the TT easily and cash my under hedge. It nearly makes up for yesterday's debacle...
I'm not sure if I'll be posting my plays for the next two weekends - going to Bali on Weds. I'm not sure what the go is with placing bets - does anyone know? Are centrebet and pinny blocked? My work computer is on 24/7, so logmein.com or realvnc will get a lot of use.
Anyway, here is the weekends sheet. Both happy and unhappy with it. Yesterday could have been a lot better and things could have been epic this weekend. I was unsure whether to put the Heat/Pies pick in it or not. Decided not to, as this is really an AFL thread and record. If anyone disagrees or thinks I'm bolstering my record, then I don't really care
YTD (from when I started tracking on 15 April 2011) is 56 - 33 (63%) and +$3,573.00.
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i watched the first half of the game before i had to go out. the c'wood spread was never really in doubt. they were all over the dees... it was as suffocating as a jealous girlfriend.
i'm glad they came home with a wet sail to cover the tt. a handy bit of spending $ for bali.Comment -
Yup, that was actually the plan this weekend. I probably upped my unit size (subconsciously) on everything with Bali in the back of my mind. Really glad for that last winner.
There were a lot of factors going for Melb, which explained the low spread - injuries, queens birthday, huge win vs essendon last week, but then you have the Collingwood vs shitty teams factor. Just glad to cash everything today.
Cheers Alt, will be buying a few Bintangs on Centrebets money over the next few weeks. I'm getting out of centrebet soon though. It took me 3 minutes to get a $1 bet authorized yesterday. Every time I submit a bet on an american sports market, it gets sent for approval. I put a $1 bet to see if it was just me or bets over a certain amount - its just me. My playing day there are numbered I think... I might bonus whore for a while, while I'm moving around.Comment -
You should contact them and let them know you'll be overseas, logging in suddenly from a foreign IP may have them lock your account for security. Remote desktopping should be fine though.
Record schmecords, the bottom line is a positive balance and %, which you have in spades, you have nothing to prove dude.
Bad luck on the Miami multi. If I was with it this morning I was going to post my NBA bets and suggest Mavs would dominate and wrap up I was almost going to take the +11 @ $7.50 with the ML, if Marion didn't run out the clock out of that sporstmanship thing where they don't rub it in with another shot when the games done and dusted it would have hit too. Lebron was bound to choke, even with Dirk having a horrendous night with fg's it was an easy win. Miami is hugely overrated due to star power. Even though I'm fairly new to following NBA myself as far as betting on it but I've been following it rather intently kind of liked the Mavs play through the season, felt they were the real deal and decided to ride em through the end of the play offs when they won that early game in the series on the road, won a bunch of sbr points from mavs to win playoffs, while they were still in western conference series at +550 and Dirk for playoff mvp at +550 also. I need bigger gambling balls.
Damn Centrebet are approving $1 bets, you must have fleeced em good. I guess sportsbet will do the same on the extremely rare chance I get one of my huge MMA parlays for several k? Is that why you dislike em?Comment -
Good idea re: contacting them and saying I will be overseas. That should work.
on the records topic: some other parts of the forum take them incredibly seriously. I just want to be as transparent as possible - particularly since I'm doing well and it seems the better you do, the more people will nit-pick over nothing.
Nice pick on Dirk and Dallas! Looking at your thread, I think you need to start putting more money on your individual picks and lay off the hail mary passes a bit... Watch that bank grow.
To be honest, whilst I've done OK at centrebet, I haven't fleeced them that good - just look at my spreadsheet - its not like I'm betting $1000 a game.Comment -
Allways look for your picks Gee. Have a good one in Bali
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Yeah now my balance is back over $200 I've been thinking I'm gonna start playing $5 - $10 more regularly on straight wins, totals and the lower spreads @ around $1.72 instead of essentially cherry picking the +ev lines. It's basically greed coupled with pessimism that makes me think at $2 a pop, it's only worth playing +ev lines or the hail mary parlays, when really any profit is worthwhile. But thing is I've come so close to so many huge wins over the years on ridiculous parlays on MMA especially I still lay them out of habit and I'll kick myself if I go 100%, especially on method of victories and could hit a 5 figure multi, several times I went in big like $100+ on MMA single bets I got stung on shock upsets, bs decisions - JDS Werdum, CroCop Gonzaga, Shogun Machida 1, Shogun Forrest for instance really made me realise for all you think you know on a given sport, you're bound to get bitten on the ass playing larger stakes and it really spooked me into being overly cautious since trying to make sportbetting on AFL/NRL etc a profitable hobby again.
Plus I'm often too tired/lazy, drunk or busy to put the required effort into researching AFL/NRL for making a decent sized straight play and I don't get to see all the games, so I just bunch my picks together as a what if. I'm making a conscious effort to go about footy betting more sensibly, from seeing how you and the other Aussies here do your footy plays.
Yeah I've seen what the rest of the forum is like, the boxing/mma forum is shocking. The amount of "locks" and gloating, whinging over records etc on the NBA/MLB etc boards is funny and sad at the same time. I just wanna make money and discuss betting angles rationally and objectively as we do here. I understand where you're coming from though. I think if anyone starts nit-picking you, they'll promptly be told to f-off by the rest of us
Anyhoo, enjoy your trip to Bali
Kinda jelly sitting here freezing in frosty Melbourne
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From Centrebet
1. WESTERN BULLDOGS 1.23 -31.0 : 2.11 -26.5 : 1.92
2. ADELAIDE 4.20 +22.0 : 2.11 +26.5 : 1.92
1. HAWTHORN 1.01 -79.5 : 2.11 -74.5 : 1.92
2. GOLD COAST 16.60 +70.0 : 2.09 +74.5 : 1.92
1. ESSENDON 1.64 -13.5 : 2.10 -8.5 : 1.92
2. NORTH MELBOURNE 2.27 +3.5 : 2.10 +8.5 : 1.92
1. ST KILDA 3.90 +20.0 : 2.11 +24.5 : 1.92
2. GEELONG 1.26 -29.0 : 2.11 -24.5 : 1.92
1. BRISBANE 2.21 +2.5 : 2.10 +7.5 : 1.92
2. RICHMOND 1.67 -12.5 : 2.10 -7.5 : 1.92
1. MELBOURNE 1.80 -9.0 : 2.11 -3.5 : 1.92
2. FREMANTLE 2.02 -1.5 : 2.09 +3.5 : 1.92
1. CARLTON 1.26 -29.0 : 2.11 -24.5 : 1.92
2. SYDNEY 3.90 +20.0 : 2.11 +24.5 : 1.92
1. WEST COAST 1.06 -53.0 : 2.10 -48.5 : 1.92
2. PORT ADELAIDE 9.30 +44.0 : 2.10 +48.5 : 1.92Comment -
North on the ML seems like a good bet with Essendon having come from Perth, they also had to wait an extra day over there I believe.Comment -
I'm not sure how ash from South America is affecting Melbourne, but agree with the play - regardless of travel.
Thanks for that Alt. I saw that this morning and didn't love anything instantly. I still may grab the early lines on North, Freo, Geelong, Adelaide. No big plays this weekend (1x-2x). I have the green light on footy at the pub and gambling, but I don't want to be tilty whilst on holiday.
Alt: if you want to consistently increase your bank roll, the straight bets are the way to go. maybe rare two and three teamers at most if u have to. the fact is, every gambler has near miss stories, but the math his horribly against you on those. the way you are betting is definitely more fun, but it isn't a good long term strategy. i wouldn't go big laying a lot of chalk either - never place a bet more than 15% of your bankroll imo. A lot wouldn't even lay that much. Its sports - anything can happen. Anyway, there are plenty of good threads with information about this kind of thing.
Perth is freezing too. going to be glad to get out of here soon
Last edited by Gee; 06-14-11, 06:06 AM.Comment -
No probs, cheers for the points.
Nothing really appeals to me either, if Sandilands was back for Freo this week I'd be leaning Freo, aside Hawks, West Coast and probably Geelong, all the other games could go either way.
haha yeah I know I'm not the only one to come close to 12 leggers/5 or 6 digit parlays hell I'm aware many people have hit em and I bloody well want my turn. Just explaining my methods/philosophy on betting. I know too well the math is against me, still the outcome of any given event doesn't affect the outcome of the next leg in a parlay, fight on a card or game in a round of footy. I still kind of see parlays as the tossing coin theory of independent events with each leg being a 50/50. While it's not in your favour it's not the math that screws you, it's capping that individual pick/s that go awry incorrectly. If you follow a sport well enough the probability you'll go 100% is much higher of tipping all events than any other game of chance, and the odds are much better. For instance how many times would you tip the 8 for a year in footy compared to chumps winning the lowest division on lotto or picking a 10/1 nag, if your picks include a few +ev lines for a straight win and you can get odds from 10/1 to several hundred it's worth risking a buck or two imo, knowing there's low chance of them coming good regularly even if I had a bankroll of tens of thousands I'd still only be playing them at same stakes though.
I've spent many nights browsing through the handicappers think tank, players talk etc, considered buying some books too. I will stick with max bets of 10% or so on straight wins & favourable lines and cut down on the multi's of margins on footy especially. I can do my longshot multis, doubles and triples for straight wins on titanbet for under a dollar.
There was something on the news last night about Tullamarine having flights cancelled. Tassie and New Zealand according to this article.
Not having a bet on State of Origin tonight?Comment -
Currently leaning;
Western Bulldogs
Hawthorn
North Melbourne
St Kilda
Brisbane
Fremantle
Sydney
West CoastComment -
Alt: yeah, all flights in and out of perth are canned today. Hopefully the weather is better tomorrow... worst case scenario (from what I can gather) is fly out friday though... that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.
I'm taking QLD tonight. I took them in a ML with a tennis player yesterday. Not the most +EV bet I've ever made, but I figured if my tennis bitch lost, then I would be forced to take the -2.5 today. Fortunately, I don't have to.
So, I have a unit on QLD/Baltacha paying about $2.05. That'll be enough to keep me interested.Comment -
For any of you with sportingbet accounts, if you haven't noticed the promo mail there's a $10 freebet deal for the SOO by adding a maroons/blues badge to your facebook profile pic. Only took a sec to do and the freebet was accredited within about 10 mins. Need to do it before 6:30pm EST.
I'm on the Queensland ML @ $1.70, thinking of using the freebet for the Queensland & Under 28.5 double @ $3.25 I was going to put my standard $2 on anyway, looks the the unders taken some action, it raised half a point within awhile of being put up on sportingbet, and supposedly terribly wet and windy in Sydney, chancing the HT/FT Double of Queensland 1-8/1-12 @ $8. Or hedging the ML take NSW and be guaranteed to return at least $10, unless they f'en draw....Comment -
Managed to get on net here, going to go watch at sports bar in kuta.
Been having 75c shots and 50c beers all arvo.
3 plays, u/181.5, bulldogs tt u 103.5 and crows +24.5.
Good luck all!Comment -
Don't know how much of a difference 3 points makes, but 5Dimes had +27.5 earlier, which I took.
Some rugby later today, but I doubt you'll be checking in anytime soon.
Let's get this Crows money!
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Nice calls Gee, almost swept it. Take it easy on the 50c beers they'll give you a Cronic hangover!Comment -
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When drinks are in the same price range as my bet outlays you know you've chosen the correct holiday destination.
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Thanks guy.
Lmao alt.
I have Internet on my iPad by the pool bar - how could I not SBR and gamble. Only small wagers though (1x) - do no want to tilt while over here. Watching the game last night with the gf was fukn stressful, espec that kick after the siren!
Crows nearly shat the bed completely last night, but I'll take 2 from 3 any day.
Going to look over stuff this morning while trying to get a tan and probably starting on the $4 cocktails soon
Hopefully will find some value in the next few hours
Sov: shit balls re the crows. They really gave it up :/ it seems that favorites are all covering with late bursts this season. I THINK it is because of the fwd press, which is a risky game plan to start with, but when the losing team really has to take even more risks in the last to score fast, it makes it very easy for a blowout. Thoughts on this anyone? No dogs for me for a while, unless I think they are a good chance of winning outright!Comment
Wasn't the final margin 30?