AFL opening spreads

SoV · 06-30-11, 11:25 PM

Afl afl afl afl!

:d

Alt75 · 07-01-11, 12:54 AM

You're welcome guys

Wish I could find one for NRL too.

That site will come in very handy, there's an Aussie rules priv torrent tracker but it's near on impossible to maintain a ratio, especially if you wanted to download a few games a week. Had Optus at an old place mid 90's when they had the footy rights, that was cool having footy 24/7 and re-runs of fast forward. I live in a rear unit with no cable connected, other tenants never wanted cable hooked up so my only option would be the foxtel dish or I've considered iinet fetchtv. These days I rarely watch TV aside sports that I wager on which can usually find streams if not radio for non live AFL. Only watch a few select US cable shows and the odd film I can download long before they air here, pay TV would get about as much use as the breadmaker I thought would be a sound investment

bet365 had total on the Dogs Demons game at 196.5 around 3am this morning around when the tennis finished, now I see it's down to 186.5 in line with what I assume it opened at on the Aus books. Even though this seasons numbers tell me Melbourne with their record against the Dogs and at Etihad I'm leaning Dogs and over, if Dogs conceded near on 100 to the Suns, against Melbourne in the comfort of Etihad this could go over 190/200? Melbourne have kicked some big scores this season, their two losses to North/Saints at Etihad this year Melbourne kicked around 14.3. Dogs likely have to kick 14/15 + goals to win. Melbourne are ranked 4th in least opponent tackles, Bulldogs only positive stat is 3rd in handballs, with no environmental conditions affecting the game, would likely to play out as a free running shootout?

Pride · 07-01-11, 01:29 AM

at this point i feel the total has lost all value and i wouldnt touch it.

i think both teams will need to be firing for the total to go over

Gee · 07-01-11, 02:04 AM

Melb haven't scored 100 points at Etihad since 2007. They haven't won there since then either.

I've all but given up on totals unless i see something i really like... they are very tough.

I would take the under at 196.5 though!

Alt75 · 07-01-11, 04:03 AM

Yeah I'm gonna leave the total alone, shame I wanted to do an AFL ML/Total multi on bet365 but I'll stick with the ML picks on the 2 underdogs for the games tonight. Not boozing tonight so won't be doing anything square

Gee theres something I'm curious about I'm sure you'd know, if you don't mind explaining please how does the bankers thing work on bet365? I've read the help thing on bet365 for it but don't understand what the hell they mean or how it differs from a standard multi, searched here and was nothing relevant. Please kind sir, save me from making a newbie thread

Lookingtostart · 07-01-11, 04:03 AM

I like the over at 186.5, Melbourne and Dogs aren't the same team as two years ago. I'd rather go on this year's form.

Alt75 · 07-01-11, 04:23 AM

I'm thinking it will probably go over too, but being on the Doggies at +ev there's no point risking a play on the total also imo.

GroundnPound · 07-01-11, 05:13 AM

Hate to jump the gun but the Bulldogs look on

Alt75 · 07-01-11, 05:22 AM

Bulldogs down to $1.35 on bet365 live, Melbourne out to $3

donkson · 07-01-11, 05:47 AM

ahhh I ended up not taking the Dogs, just couldn't bring myself to back them, I'm sort of annoyed but oh well.

GroundnPound · 07-01-11, 07:00 AM

The fact the dogs were hard to put my money on made them the play

GroundnPound · 07-01-11, 07:08 AM

Its official the Dogs just trashed Demons suck that public thinking Demons are a good team.

Alt75 · 07-01-11, 07:09 AM

Yeah I was uneasy on it too with the motivation from Wight's passing and with the Sherman racism thing, kinda wary backing sides with internal issues/media drama etc. Melbourne's shocking record at Etihad was a stronger angle than how the sides match up/form for the year and any motivation or internal issues. If this was at the G Demons would probably belt the Dogs.

Hopefully Melbourne are faves at Etihad a few more games this year!

Alt75 · 07-01-11, 07:11 AM

GnP you're not gonna lose all your winnings on AFL/NRL betting on Tito this weekend are you?

GroundnPound · 07-01-11, 07:17 AM

I haven't even checked the odds haha. I might put like $10 on him I still like him even though he is not the same fighter he was.

What games we liking tomorrow boys?

Alt75 · 07-01-11, 07:41 AM

He's out to almost $5 now, Bader down to $1.17, was $1.22 during the week. Tito's a character and a legend in the sport but I don't think he'll have much for Bader. This will probably be his retirement bout I would think. Sportingbet have a 100% bonus for UFC 132 straight bets over $10, only the first winning one you place though, if you're gonna chance a tenner on Tito that'd be the place to do so. I wouldn't risk a dollar at $20 on him against a younger, stronger wrestler with heavy hands.

Carlton 1-39
Geelong -46.5
Freo 1-39 or -39.5. Depends on how you think the Suns turn up in W.A again. Freo struggled with Brisbane last week. Suns competed with Eagles over there who are the better of the WA sides this year.
Sydney -18.5

Lookingtostart · 07-01-11, 08:21 AM

Well done to everyone who picked the Bulldogs line

, Melbourne still have a monkey on their hands. I was expecting them to shake the hoodoo but the Docklands factor is still too strong.

I can't believe how poorly they broke down in their forward zone

.

Gee · 07-01-11, 10:10 PM

Nice win last night!

Two plays today. Sydney -15.5 (3x) and Blues -24.5 (2x). No time for a write up on either, but everything lines up on both plays.

I kinda like the over in the Freo game too, but I don't trust the weather. Still thinking about the Cats... I don't like big spreads much.

Gee · 07-01-11, 10:49 PM

I'm going to take the over 181.5 in the dockers/suns game for 1.5x. I think it should be an open shoot out and hopefully the weather doesn't play a big role.

Gee · 07-02-11, 01:34 AM

Nice on Carlton.

Weather looks like it is going to mush my over :/

Alt: a banker is basically anchoring numerous parlays. you select the legs you want to anchor all bets, then the number of combinations of the remaining picks. don't waste your time with it. its a sucker bet.

biggie12 · 07-02-11, 02:48 AM

gee anything still on the board tonight ?

GroundnPound · 07-02-11, 03:04 AM

Gee why is St Kilda basically even odds with North Melbourne what am i missing.. I made thousands off the Saints last season are they fade material this season?? Everytime I watched North Melbourne they are boring slow few tall dudes up front and get stacks of frees for their goals...

Alt75 · 07-02-11, 05:09 AM

Rightio. Thanks Gee. Yeah I was just kinda curious, won't be bothering with it.

Nice work on the blues, who woulda guessed they'd kick 28 goals!

bad luck on that over damn 1 goal short

Damn those Bombers, according to what the commentators said before the bounce, apparently some twit with more money than sense chucked a lazy million on Cats to win SU for 90k.

Gee · 07-02-11, 09:49 PM

GnP: North have been good recently, but **** they've had an easy run. Saints have been fade material. Don't seem to be able to play for 4 quarters. But, No, you're not missing anything. Saints are the play. I'm taking them 3x on the ML at -116 on pinny.

I'm also playing the under in this power game. 193.5 is about 3 goals too high imo. 2x on that one.

donkson · 07-02-11, 10:55 PM

Yeah I took the Saints as well. Saw North live against Essendon, they weren't that impressive. As you say they haven't actually beaten anyone amazing.

GroundnPound · 07-02-11, 11:04 PM

Thanks for replies guys, I think Saint Kilda is the play but I might play 0.5x on North Melbourne just because of the odds..

brettels · 07-03-11, 12:52 AM

next week essendon might be the value pick......confidence vs tail between legs tigers. will be a different story this time around i think, unfortunately. but there is money to be made too

donkson · 07-03-11, 01:42 AM

I think Richmond will be huge value, Essendon are terrible at the G, granted they are and should be solid favourites, but they will be priced too short imo. Plus they have an awful record against Richmond.

brettels · 07-03-11, 02:32 AM

Take it from a Richmond supporter. The tigers will lose to the bombers this time. I'm hoping the odds are around 1.65+ for the bombers!

donkson · 07-03-11, 07:42 AM

They'll be sub 1.50.

Gee · 07-03-11, 06:58 PM

Yeah agreed, Bombers will start big favourites. They'll be overvalued after their win vs Geelong. Similarly, Richmond have had some really bad losses in its last few matches.

Take the over in this one

stylistically, it makes for a shoot out, but if the weather is good, it will be set very high, so we'll see

No opening lines out anywhere. Will have to wait until tonight.

Also, whats the play for league tonight? no idea over here

Good weekend overall guys, despite a shitty saturday.

Overall 67 - 39. +43.98 units.

brettels · 07-03-11, 07:28 PM

Centrebet h2h are up. 1.46 for the bombers....too low! sportsbet.com.au will have a new site tommorow, just look at iasbet.com as it will be almost the same as that.

Gee · 07-03-11, 08:38 PM

Geelong opened at $1.77

I think that is very generous.

Very early play - Cats @ 1.77 for 1.5x ($195 to win $150).

brettels · 07-03-11, 08:44 PM

they are good odds but the bet isn't anything certain. the 2.05 on WCE looks better to me.

Gee · 07-03-11, 09:00 PM

good luck on the eagles then!

I wish I'd seen this before I placed my bet: http://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/afl...-1226087020452

Shop around guys...