AFL opening spreads

[Alt75]

any chance carlton loses straight up?

I don't think many of the Aussies or those who follow AFL regularly here will be giving Dogs much chance SU

There's always a chance but this isn't a dog I'd be backing. Carlton should cover fairly easily could even win -59.5 if they follow up from last weeks form. Port are probably the best chance for the upset playing at home, but I really wouldn't be betting on that either. That's a stay the hell away from game imo. Weekend for short priced faves, aside the Friday night game.

[biggie12]

nothing for me to do tonight i need action gee check in whats the best play tonight i want to drop 5k

[brettels]

Biggie! Just put it on collingwood to win straight out! Make a few hundred!

[Gee]

Dogs have looked good in patches. Not sure on that game.

Pies -41.5 to start with for 2x. Kangaroos are pretenders and will get shown up today. Going for dim sum, so no time for a write up (not that I'm huge on write ups anyway). Hopefully get to watch the 2nd half.

[Alt75]

What were you saying about large spreads?

I agree Pies are probably good for it, weather here is a bitch today it's getting overcast and gloomy here in Melbourne, been showers over the ground, will probably be patchy rain at least during the game.

This is one of those days where the weather could lessen the gap between the two sides I hope not for our sake, it's not. I wouldn't be suggesting anyone drop a 5k bundle on such a short ML any time, while Collingwood should be good for it. On a fine day sure, weather like this bit too risky.

Enjoy your dim sum!

If I sweep and my multi hits I might go out boozing and see if I can get a serve of Sum Yung Slut.

btw sportingbet are offering an happyhour (trappyhour) on Carlton 1-24 @ $4

I think this means Blues cover the 21.5

[kdoub]

This has nothing to do with betting so I apologize for hijacking the thread a little.
Just an observation/question from a North American and looking for some AFL fan feedback. I find AFL games too long.

I'll admit its likely my NA bias and liking 60 minute games but each quarter just seems to drag on.
The other comparisons are rugby (80 min) and soccer (90 min) but the stoppage time in those game is much more nebulous and lower. In those games there is very rarely more than 5 minutes per half compared to about 115-20 minutes per half in AFL.

Of course the wasting time aspect of soccer and rugby drives me nuts at times so I don't have an ideal solution.
It would seem to me that it would be more appealing if the game fit into a nice 2-2.5 hour window instead of 2.5-3 hour.

[Alt75]

This has nothing to do with betting so I apologize for hijacking the thread a little.
Just an observation/question from a North American and looking for some AFL fan feedback. I find AFL games too long.

I'll admit its likely my NA bias and liking 60 minute games but each quarter just seems to drag on.
The other comparisons are rugby (80 min) and soccer (90 min) but the stoppage time in those game is much more nebulous and lower. In those games there is very rarely more than 5 minutes per half compared to about 115-20 minutes per half in AFL.

Of course the wasting time aspect of soccer and rugby drives me nuts at times so I don't have an ideal solution.
It would seem to me that it would be more appealing if the game fit into a nice 2-2.5 hour window instead of 2.5-3 hour.

It was originally 25 mins a quarter, shortened to 20 mins mid 90's, with the clock stopped when ball's out of bounds. That and goals being scored, injuries etc is what makes the quarters drag out.

Any more changes to the game and the fans won't be happy, especially with less football to watch each week. 15 mins a quarter wouldn't really work. They did have some shorter games pre-season. While I agree some games can be dull to watch, especially blowouts or the games with high stoppages with no flow. I much prefer NRL to AFL as a spectator sport and I'm from Melbourne AFL's holy land, but from an Aussie's perspective, the duration of AFL doesn't seem that bad say compared to the slow gameplay in soccer or the time-outs in North American sports with it cutting out to some annoying tune. Remember we have cricket, think of a baseball game that goes all day/evening or even worse 5 days. AFL gametime is short in comparison.

It's just the nature of Aussie sports we need something to watch while we drink all day

[donkson]

any chance carlton loses straight up?

Can't see it, Dogs haven't been great despite getting a few wins, could be close because the Dogs are at their best at the dome, but like North, they haven't beaten anyone good, and Carlton are a class above.

[brettels]

Wow collingwood ! North made a real contest of it!

[Alt75]

Bad luck on that total brettels, your gut instinct wasn't far off. Didn't think the Pies would score that much.

Passed up on Pies -99.5 @ $3.50 at 3Q time

[biggie12]

Alt who do u like in the carlton western game -22.5 the line im seeing.

[Gee]

Still out at pub. Miserable weather today.

Blues 22.5 for 1.5x. Action play I hope I don't regret...

[Alt75]

As I posted sportingbet had one of their scam promotions of Carlton 1-24 @ $4 offering like 250 bets at an inflated price. They are usually traps, and should not fall within that margin unless the bookies decided they want to give away 4x on a close game.

Carlton SU I'm pretty confident on. They "should" cover the 22.5 fairly easily on recent form. Only downside on it Bulldogs play ok at this ground.

I took Carlton SU with the over 205.5 (then it was adjusted/dropped to 185) although I think the scoreline will be Carlton 130/140 to Bulldogs 100/90, thinking of taking Carlton to cover myself, just in case the total doesn't go that high.

p.s I am not endorsing you drop 5k on it, follow Gee if you're gonna lay that much

[biggie12]

went with the spread for 3500 that was my max allowed.

im not sure if its looking good or not im still searching for a feed that will work off my iphone =)

[brettels]

There is an app called footy live it's the best for live scores biggie

[biggie12]

thanks but i need a flash feed. I know where to find scores want to watch though

[donkson]

Your bet is safe, Dogs are crap.

[Brian891]

i hope u r right, i tailed for 10 bucks, but lead has evaporated. blues have no shot to win it all. too inconsistent against inferior competition.

[Brian891]

blues are kinda ridiculous. so up and down. blew a 4 goal lead to a lower half team. looking ahead to pies i guess. they stink. should be blowing dogs out.

[Alt75]

thanks but i need a flash feed. I know where to find scores want to watch though

try this

http://yycast.com/13092946472398

[brettels]

try the costly offical AFL app biggie, as i said costly. they will either have live flash feed or replays only at the least. if they dont have it you will get it through telstra as of 2012 any game you want to watch on your phone.

[donkson]

blues are kinda ridiculous. so up and down. blew a 4 goal lead to a lower half team. looking ahead to pies i guess. they stink. should be blowing dogs out.

They probably rely too much on a small group of players.

[Brian891]

not lookin good. pies r going to destroy blues. 3rd quarter supposed to be strong point for them. they r getting beat down. oh well. i am known for jinxing footy!

[Alt75]

Shoulda figured they'd have a down week after such a huge win over the Tiges. Can't believe it's so low scoring either and I picked over 205.5... Doubt Blues can turn it around for a SU win from here, let alone get a 40 point turnaround

I'm off for the evening, bad luck guys on Blues back tomorrow for some MLB and Monday night NRL

[Brian891]

i promise i wont bet on footy again. yet another beatdown of a fav that i wagered on. sport is hard to call when a top 4 team can play like this and just disappear for 2.5 quarters.

[Lookingtostart]

deleted

[donkson]

What the hell are you talking about?


He was talking about when Collingwood play Carlton next week.

Carlton's guernsey is navy blue, go and look at one in a shop if you seriously can't tell, you might be the colour-blind one.

when a top 4 team can play like this and just disappear for 2.5 quarters.

Yeah it was pretty terrible, but Waite was a pretty big loss for them in the 2nd quarter, coupled with the terrible kicking at goal, the result really should have been different. Still a massive upset.

[Lookingtostart]

What the hell are you talking about?


He was talking about when Collingwood play Carlton next week.

Carlton's guernsey is navy blue, go and look at one in a shop if you seriously can't tell, you might be the colour-blind one.

My bad, misread the post.

However, my sarcasm still stands (take a joke will you), Carlton wear black:

[donkson]

right..

[biggie12]

why do i waste my money on this shit i don't know. carlton was up by 30 when i went to sleep fuckers got hammered in the 2nd half

[Alt75]

Bad luck biggie, hope you make that 3.5k back asap on yer Yank sports mate. If it's any consolation I took Braves + Braves & Over tonight following Yank friends tips yesterday and it looks like I'm gonna lose.

Wasn't a good round for AFL betting, faves were underpriced and the spreads were a bit large on some games.

The best edge this week was the bet365 totals, pretty sure all unders hit on their opening totals. I'm going to be comparing those to scoring averages and forecasts early in the mornings (they are put up between 1am-5am Aus EST) and see if I can get a consistent angle and rob those limey bookies.

Due to the conditions I thought Collingwood v North would be a tad closer and not as high scoring, put up 177 with an opening total of 187 yet Bulldogs and Carlton in an indoor stadium put up 165 opening at 205.5, figured it would be a 220+ total. When it dropped to 188 I knew jumping the gun on the over was absent minded. The North TT at 67.5 was silly to pass on too. I'm surprised Gee wasn't all over that one.

[biggie12]

i cant complain about the loss gee has made me some nice money over the months. As for american sports i usually stick to NBA so not much betting going on. MLB hasn't been nice this season. Waiting till after all-star break to continue there.

[Alt75]

Ah well as long as you're still up, damn sir you have some big balls to go in large especially on a sport you don't follow!
I can understand following Gee though if I'd have done that instead of my smartass hokey bets and multi's all season I'd probably have 3.5k to flutter.

I much prefer NBA over MLB too, I can at least watch NBA games and follow the game enough that with some feedback from the NBA forum I can make some educated bets. MLB I'm just a sheep or throwing darts.

btw anyone who has resigned to the abhorrent fact that Collingwood will win 2 flags in a row, the futures for them are at $2.00 now. It's only going to get lower in coming weeks.

Carlton, Gold Coast, Essendon, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Brisbane, Fremantle and Geelong are their remaining games. I doubt they drop any of them they are a game behind Geelong yet equal in points. I think it's assured they've got a top 2 spot with Geelong, they will likely get West Coast, Carlton or Hawthorn in their qualifying final and who's going to challenge them?

[Gee]

you were meant to play the pies spread biggie! I posted that after you asked for the play.

carlton was an action bet because i was out at the pub oh well, i'd rather lose those bets TBH. teach me a lesson about being an action junkie, rather than get overconfident.

miserable weekend. down a few hundred :/ update my spreadsheet later.

I agree with the pies bet, but I don't want the bookie having my money until the 1st week of october!

who do we all like in the rugby tonight?

[Alt75]

Hard to look past Newcastle at home against Cowboys without Thurston. They upset the Cowboys in rd 2 34-22. The only thing I can see in favour of the Cowboys is the Knights haven't won 4 in a row since 2006. Newcastle by at least a try or two and over 38.5 is what I'm leaning.