knights are in way too good form to lose to a thurston-less cowboys side. the only question is their margin of victory. but something tells me we may get a bit of a fight from the cowboys especially with them knowing that they'll be playing out the rest of the "regular" season (and maybe even finals) without their star playmaker.
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Yeah, my square side likes the over. But Newc have been under machines of late, so I dunno. Might tail someone in here
The spread is too big for me to really like newcastle isn't it? isn't this a massive overreaction from the Thurstons injury. What did the line open at? I remember seeing something last week that it moved the line 7 or 8 points.... Star player being overvalued by the public theory. Maybe Cowboys +11.5??Comment -
I don't pay much attention to the NRL opening spreads.
Hmm I think I've been swayed to the over cause I was on so many unders on league games on the weekend and they all went over on Sat/Sun, but also the weather is fine and mild in Newcastle, without Thurston Newcastle might score more than recent weeks, every Knights v Cowboys game since 2007 have gone been 38 or over. Knights have 7 from 8 wins between 1-12 only 1 over -12.5, maybe use pyol to take +12.5 so it's within 2 converted try's? Already got stung by half a point this week, when I could have shaved a few off the Brisbane +41.5 to bring Saturdays multi from $5.33 to $5.Comment -
Not sure on tonight.
I think I'll plays Cowboys +11.5, but decide closer to game time.
Opening spreads are out. Going to jump on Bombers -9.5 for 2x now
I hope i'm right about this one moving... Crows have really stuffed me this year though :/
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Doh I was editing my post and I accidentally refreshed the page.
What do you think of the prop on bet365 for NRL, will any team score 3 unanswered tries - No @ $2.62
Few times I thought of taking it it's hit, only Manly, Melbourne and St George can really shut sides down and keep em scoreless. Square bet or is it worth a "coin toss" at over $2.50 whether a side strings together 3 tries, which in most evenly matched league games would be unlikely aside the aforementioned sides with solid defence.
Fun Fact: Every side that has beaten Richmond has lost the following week since round 8.
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That prop bet is a sucker bet unless you do the math on it.... Don't just take it just because it seems good at +money. The bookies have done their math and its at +money for a reason.
I'm almost certainly going to play the cowboys tonight.Comment -
If it seems to good to be true it usually is
Not a good night for it as Cowboys could fall apart. Also looking past recent results in rd 14 Cowboys were smashed by Manly 24-4. That was the Cowboys without Thurston before SOO v2.0. Now I'm thinking that line may have moved so drastically for a reason? Knights haven't been at the level of Manly but with home ground advantage the Knights could mug the Cowboys
There's the Match Report for Manly v Cowboys
Their record without Thurston makes sorry reading, with just seven wins from the 26 games the Test halfback has not been involved in since 2005.Comment -
The Thurston factor is an interesting one. It's hard to put an accurate points value on what a star player means for a team in terms of points scored. Some games he might be worth 4 points in terms of what he contributes but other games he could be worth 20 or more. Who is to say which one he would have been tonight if he was playing?
I am thinking a small line movement is expected and fair enough but any large line movements will be "over-corrections" by punters who over-value the Thurston factor.Comment -
love GC this week. taken 2u straight up and will most likely reload on the line.Comment -
Without Ablett they won't be doing much, they weren't starting to look good for another win somewhere but have really looked out of steam lately.Comment -
Sounds like ablett will be playing!!!Comment -
Yeah, Ablett is fit, but I'm on fading the Suns right now.
Its the time of season where young teams traditionally start to fade out. I wouldn't be surprised if GC are a prime example of this. I don't know much about Cazaly stadium. Small ground in Cairns... I expect I'll be on the Tigers.
Took Cowboys +12 tonight. Whilst he might have a huge impact, I don't think Thurstons is worth the 9.5 point swing in theory. I'm pretty sure it opened at 2.5. I also think the Cowboys will come out with a point to prove this week. They know they won't have Thurstons for a while and need to show they can win without him... They will have been fired up by all the media talk on Thurstons too.
My take on the line movement is that every man and his dog are on the Knights. If people are still buying, the bookies may as well raise their prices. It does mean, however, that you are getting value on the Cowboys. I'll take the nice +12.Comment -
The old Monday night pokie curse strikes again! Nice call Gee!Comment -
Well called Gee
You'd just about swayed me to Cowboys +12 then I looked up that past game against Manly, was undecided so went with Knights & Over.
Was only $1.04 rounding off on bet365 but damn I hate being wrong.
I was curious Gee, if you do any of the AFL/NRL tipping comps what's your score/percentage on SU picks for the season so far?
RD 17 Lines.
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Bad luck Alt. On the upside you're not tilting because you got jipped on an over. That really should have hit.
There was definitely something fishy about last nights line. I can't believe I didn't have a value bet on the ML. oh well.
I don't do any tipping comps... well I am in a tipping comp, but I've forgotten twice this year already and scored an automatic 2, including last weekend when the average was 5 But other than that I'd be in the top 5 I suppose. its all pretty close, but its not a particularly lucrative comp. I don't like straight up tipping anyway, because I always tip who i bet on, so a dog +30 points will be my tip even if I think they'll lose, but cover.
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I didn't get to see the game, checked the scores this morning and was my god another dog hits for the weekend. I wasn't surprised it went under, the trend of all Sat/Sundays games going over was going to finish sooner rather than later.
Oh right. I just do the one on your beloved sportsbet
past few years I've been pretty slack this year I've managed to get em in every week. I usually do them as my early leans on the games, I try not to let the odds influence my straight up picks so I'm not just picking the faves and then figure out my bets for each game and may update the tips if homework for betting sways me to the other side. At 89/124 - 71.7% so far, no chance of winning anything on the comp in near on fifteen thousandth place, not too shabby considering it's only been the last few months I've put more effort into analysing AFL. Hoping I can hit 80% next year, maybe going tout in 2013 *j/k* 
3 days with nothing much to bet on
think I'll get a midweek fix from sng's or trots instead of tennis/soccer
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I just put $20 on GC suns at 7.5 to return $150. Its great odds and this is no certainty for richmond. As much as i want the tigers to win im fine risking $20 if the worse happens. Really see it as a 50/50 game, pretty insulting for the tigers actually.Comment -
friday nights match adelaide at home vs essendon. i dont know if the pick should be essendon h2h or a pyol +40's on adelaide.Comment -
PYOL +40s on Crows.
Whilst I got on the Dons early at -9.5 and expect the market to go that way, it is far from a safe bet.
Essendon haven't beaten the Crows since 2007 and they have an equally appalling record at AAMI. I just see this Crows team as much worse than Crows teams of the past. Sydney was an aberration and the weather was a bit of a leveller. Not to mention the many easy misses Sydney had.
I'm also going to be on the Eagles whatever happens. I'll prob decide in the next 24 hours. Hopefully it isn't crunched into a ML by then! already moved 3 points.Comment -
I think the value is with the crows h2h, but I agree the price on the Bombers will probably drop.Comment -
re: Bombers record against Crows is pretty bleak although to their credit Essendon are doing better this year than previous seasons, this time last year they were 12th on the ladder at 6 and 11. I will probably play a total under 180/190 depending what it opens at/weather.
I think Eagles will beat Saints too. West Coast have dropped considerably I'm sure they were at $2.20/$2.30 earlier in the week.
see bet365 has an update, the normal sports section is in the same flash format as the live play section. Looks nicer but like with sportsbet update, no firefox password manager/secure login compatibility
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And bombers have moved to 8.5
It looks like the trend is towards unders now Alt, so gotta agree with that. I'm finding totals harder to cap ATM though, as it comes down so much to stylistic matchups and the teams now know how everyone else is going to play.
I haven't really seen bet365 site much. It sounds too intensive. I prefer my simple sites that I can use on my phone. I don't really like the bet365 mobile site. I don't like any mobile site that much unless i know what im going to bet when I get on there.Comment -
I hate the new interface of both bet365 and sportsbet. I can't copy and paste from sportsbet now, it used to be simple and good. Bet365 has flash clips going off everywhere (I use flashblock but it blocks the whole site) and the site's messy. Why do they do this?Comment -
Yeah agreed totals are pretty tough to cap in general, with bet365 opening them far too high considering scoring averages/weather conditions they are a lot more appealing. As long as the games pan out according to the stats and there's no huge blow out or a high scoring shootout but last week Pies v Roos still hit under after being adjusted 10 points lower. I think on some games they can be a safer bet where the h2h/line is a bit hard to call.
What are your thoughts on the Collingwood v Carlton game, think Collingwood cover or does Blues make a game of it?
It could be a blow out or one of those rival games where the dog lifts and it's a nailbiter/upset.
You can still copypasta from the pending bets section on sportsbet and the betslip, from the AFL menu just select the market instead of having them all showing. It's not the same but can be done.
What really annoys me with bet365 update is the firefox context menu doesn't work so can't even login using the formfiller. I like the design in flash even though it's a bit overwhelming compared to usual sportsbooks and yeah flash is bloaty with so many modules going off, but it's better than having the markets aligned left in tiny black text on a white background.Last edited by Alt75; 07-13-11, 07:54 PM.Comment -
Yeah, I should play more at bet365 for the totals, but I don't like having money in bet365. I dunno why. Maybe its a superstitious thing, because I used to lose a bit of money there live betting EVERYTHING. If i could get a live stream, i'd bet it.... some shitty games of air express v talk and texters. I'm well past that now.
On another note, has anyone seen this: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news...-1226094160471
We could be going the way of America....
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Really surprised (and annoyed) how Adelaide are dropping, might get on Essendon instead.
As for the Pies game, Jamison out really hurts Carlton, but as you said these games aren't blowouts all that often. Even when Carlton were winning spoons they beat Collingwood a couple of times.Comment -
Patrick Smith is a moron to start with. But I think this is mainly aimed at the exotics, the first goalscorer market attracted a lot of attention a few weeks ago because of some huge price drop on Merrett to score the first goal, people were speculating there was some inside knowledge that he would start forward, he didn't.http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news...-1226094160471 We could be going the way of America....
Hopefully nothing comes of it.Comment -
donks: whilst it is aimed at the exotics, the suggestion is to ban banks (and presumably e-wallets too) from conducting transactions for bookies who aren't licensed with Aus sporting codes. That would be a nightmare for me :/ I would need to open an overseas bank account
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Yeah it would be terrible no doubt.Comment -
I think we are definitely headed that way, sad to say. We are, after all, one of the biggest nanny states there are. I also think in years to come we'll see hardly any of the in-game betting advertising you get today.Yeah, I should play more at bet365 for the totals, but I don't like having money in bet365. I dunno why. Maybe its a superstitious thing, because I used to lose a bit of money there live betting EVERYTHING. If i could get a live stream, i'd bet it.... some shitty games of air express v talk and texters. I'm well past that now.
On another note, has anyone seen this: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news...-1226094160471
We could be going the way of America....
Hopefully one positive outcome would be getting live betting on Aussie books - I'd like to also see an Aussie book try to offer Pinnacle-esque odds. Readbet are trying in this space but they are way too slow on their lines and the limits are pathetic. Heck how hard would it be to set up a site that just mirrored Pinnacle's odds - the Aussie market is a bunch of mad punters, it's a sure fire winner.Comment -
The in-game advertising will be gone next year, it's already been done.
Hopefully that takes some focus off the issue. I'm still hopeful it will be a while before anything is actually done (if anything).Comment -
Ben, knowing our government, we probably won't end up with live betting either!
There isn't really a great market for a pinny style book to set up over here. Most Australian punters are not that sophisticated and do not know that much about vig and +EV. You should see how some of my mates, who love gambling, look at me when I start talking about line movement, not laying lots of chalk, 53% and that parlays are for suckers.
The Aussie market is designed for clowns, who outnumber us.
Accordingly, the only people who would be really interested in a low vig books are sharper gamblers, who, as we know, bookies aren't interested in having as customers.
edit: readbet isn't bad. limits were bad for AFL, but I assume that was to do with the $2.00 line offer they were running this year. i cashed out a while ago. MLB lines are comparable to pinny and I never had any problems getting a $100.00 or $200.00 bet down there. I would prefer slow moving lines on a site like that! but bases was always pretty quick.Last edited by Gee; 07-14-11, 01:10 AM.Comment -
haha I don't mind keeping money in books, as I can't spend it and I'm more responsible with money management regarding gambling than I am with say fine ales/organic wine, Indian takeaway or some random impulse purchase. My sportbook funds are like my precious, I don't really care about withdrawing unless it's a bundle, possibly to waste on the aforementioned things, just knowing my predictions/analysis of sports are right and my balance is increasing gives me some kind of peace with the worldYeah, I should play more at bet365 for the totals, but I don't like having money in bet365. I dunno why. Maybe its a superstitious thing, because I used to lose a bit of money there live betting EVERYTHING. If i could get a live stream, i'd bet it.... some shitty games of air express v talk and texters. I'm well past that now.
On another note, has anyone seen this: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news...-1226094160471
We could be going the way of America....
It's very tempting but for some reason I'm able to contain myself with live betting. Wagered a few bucks on Wimbledon "testing" bet365 but even the past few years on titanbet with what used be 3 cent min stakes, now 10 cents I never got suckered in betting on random European soccer, tennis etc. If I find a sport interesting enough to watch I will bet on it but I won't watch something for the sake of betting on it. However if you think my stubborn insistence with parlays is silly now I did used to put up to 12 leg multis of picks of sports I had no idea about, intention of watching from order of the sporting/titanbet calendar as like a daily sport lotto, my mate still stirs me that I bet on literally everything, everyday when I'd be like "**** this 3rd division Albanian soccer team screwed me 2000/1 parlay". Nowadays if it's not MMA AFL/NRL or NBA I just try to tell myself you don't know this well enough to be betting on, don't be a degen throwing money away, wait for events you have an edge on and end up clearing the slip. Like a junkie turning down a hit
Still aside the edge on the early totals, surely you would do well limiting yourself to live AFL betting, listening/watching following the flow of the game picking out soft live lines.
Would you have chanced Pies -99.5 @ $3.50 3Q time last week?Comment -
i will post some winning qt lines this weekend, if not i will never post tips again
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