AFL opening spreads

**Alt75** · 07-16-11, 06:39 AM

Damn the St Pricks

**donkson** · 07-16-11, 06:47 AM

Got excited there for a second.

**Gee** · 07-16-11, 07:35 PM

lol. bad luck on the eagles guys. I was sure they were going to run over the top of the Saints in the second half.

Two nice wins for me last night to make up for the Richmond debacle.

Two nice plays today too. Bulldogs -17.5 for 2.5x. Same logic as last week when I faded North. Bulldogs are a good side. North aren't.

Cats -39.5 for 2x. The history tells it all. Cats ave winning margin against Lions is about 55 points of recent times and theres no reason to think that won't happen today. The Cats dropping 2 in a row have set up a bettable line.

I am leaning Freo +24.5, but they have been so inconsistent this season. I'm staying away. Swans 1-39 is a better bet I think... No play there.

**Gee** · 07-16-11, 08:20 PM

Adding Swans TT u/96 for 1.5x. Statistical play. Not sure who wins this one.

Edit: make that 2x

**brettels** · 07-16-11, 09:45 PM

Geelong QT Line -10.5

**brettels** · 07-17-11, 01:13 AM

They better win by at least two goals or I'm bust! This is so friggen frustrating!!!

**Alt75** · 07-17-11, 03:28 AM

Bulldogs are trash

**brettels** · 07-17-11, 03:29 AM

thank god for podsiadly. poor Jbrown got knocked out and off to hospital again.

**Alt75** · 07-17-11, 11:46 PM

Round 18

**diop** · 07-18-11, 03:33 AM

its coming to the end of the year and those dogs will bark more..

**brettels** · 07-18-11, 03:50 AM

Just like the swans will fly away with it! Not touching this game!

**Alt75** · 07-18-11, 04:03 AM

Lookin to be a pretty tough week next week. North, Geelong, Hawks and Saints should cover, spreads are a tad large tho.

Swans 1-39

Collingwood should win by over 100 the line will probably be -120.5 by the end of the week.

I'm off the Eagles and think Freo win the derby

Carlton Essendon is likely a 1-39 coinflip.

**Lookingtostart** · 07-18-11, 03:49 PM

I would be careful with the Gold Coast match. Lately, insider information has shown to work wonders, with the Essendon upset against Geelong, then beating the Crows (although that wasn't an upset), as well as some games earlier on in the season. The Suns have some ex-Pies players, as well as Bluey himself was an assistant coach to his former coach.

I still think Pies will cover, but if the spread gets too large... It will be interesting seeing the line movement throughout the week.

Has anyone here been successful picking Suns games? What's your advice?

**brettels** · 07-18-11, 07:47 PM

LTS I picked suns against my Richmond. It wasn't hard you know who are bottom sides and you can always give them a chance. Former collingwood people won't make a difference on this occasion! Pies by 50+

**brettels** · 07-18-11, 07:48 PM

Should add they are a chance always against bottom sides more so when playing in qld

**donkson** · 07-18-11, 10:36 PM

Remember last year when Geelong were at Skilled against the Eagles who were appalling at the time. Everyone was saying 120+ etc etc?

They were behind for almost half the match and won by 'only' 7 goals I think. So often these huge mismatch games won't live up to the huge beating we expect because there isn't really the incentive for the dominant team to go 110% with the risk of injury etc.

It should clearly be a 10 goal win at least but don't expect Collingwood to actually play for 4 quarters.

**Lookingtostart** · 07-18-11, 10:46 PM

It's likely Pies will win by 50+, I agree with donkson though, Pies should be well ahead at 3/4 time and they might as well prepare for the next match after that. No need to risk injury either as we get closer to the finals.

**brettels** · 07-18-11, 11:15 PM

donkson i just don't think GC can be competitive 2 weeks in a row or at any time right now vs magpies! if it was at the mcg i would 100+ so i am complimenting the suns by saying 50+ loss at home vs the magic

**Alt75** · 07-18-11, 11:46 PM

I can see donkson's/LTS's point, from a team management perspective they don't want to risk injury and it may not be as one sided as expected and they don't really need the percentage boost. However if Collingwood blow it out by the 1Q as far poorer sides have done, even if they coast they can still pile on goals and if the players get the sniff of blood ie: Suns laying down a team like Collingwood will jump all over it and want to set new records for highest score, have the highest win over the Suns for bragging rights. You know how Eddie is.

**brettels** · 07-18-11, 11:55 PM

I agree too don't get me wrong! But both Geelong and collingwood are playing for percentage this weekend! Could make a difference at years end!

**Alt75** · 07-19-11, 12:04 AM

Collingwood are 40.6% in front of Geelong, actually Geelong can easily negate that against the Tigers, can't they brettels?

They only have a small buffer. Geelong have Gold Coast again in rd 20 at Skilled.
Minor premiership may be decided on percentage, there's no difference as far as for advantage between the top two sides?

**Lookingtostart** · 07-19-11, 01:03 AM

Originally posted by Alt75

Minor premiership may be decided on percentage, there's no difference as far as for advantage between the top two sides?

I could be wrong here, but the team that finishes 1st gets an extra day's rest over the team that finishes 2nd, coming into the first week of finals.

**brettels** · 07-19-11, 03:02 AM

its different every year. what days aren't guaranteed for anyone, just who plays who. wikipedia can explain it well, not allowed to link you though you will find it.

**donkson** · 07-19-11, 09:19 AM

Pies will beat Geelong when they play again anyway.

**Alt75** · 07-20-11, 12:37 AM

Well whether Collingwood beat Geelong in rd 24 or whoever ends up first/second is kinda moot as to how much Collingwood beat Suns by, it's what happens on the day.

North and Richmond blew them out by 6 goals plus in the 1Q recently, Collingwood won't let em back in it, the Suns may chip away with a few goals and keep it respectable, around the current line or it's going to be brutal.

Suns were competitive with Hawthorn (in Tassie in pretty poor conditions) and Geelong at home until half time. But then look at what Collingwood did to North recently, in conditions similar to those in Tassie when Suns played Hawthorn. North are a much more seasoned side than the Suns and they were thoroughly routed. If Collingwood don't take this game lightly and don't coast/concede easy goals this could look like one of those ammy suburban/country league scores. Geelong have the highest TT record at 239 and Fitzroy still has the highest winning margin at 190, two records Collingwood pricks would love. It's not completely out of the real of possibility Collingwood put up 10 goals a quarter. Not exactly what I want to see but yeah. My 2 cents. Hell, I'd love a shock upset to rub it into my Pie supporter friends, Brisbanes 2 GF wins doesn't have the same sting any more

If they rest any key players then obviously they're looking to finals I would be wary about playing the line, full strength line up they are taking this as any other game and looking for a huge win for confidence and percentage leading into finals.

Line is out to 78.5 now

**therealdealau** · 07-20-11, 01:17 AM

hey boys long time no post for me i just got back from holiday, how are we all doing?

i saw an interesting opportunity at my local TAB today so I thought I would share the bet, Fremantle is paying 3:1 to make the 8 which I think is great value, although I am a die hard Freo supporter I think that 3:1 is an extremely profitable number. Freo does have some incredibly tough games but the win vs Sydney with our injuries and the expected return of a few key players in the coming weeks should provide us a big enough boost to remain in the 8

what do you guys think?

**brettels** · 07-20-11, 01:51 AM

probably the best futures odds available. good find.

**Lookingtostart** · 07-20-11, 02:34 AM

I like it too... on second thought, they do play some tough games and there's only one game which you can safely lock in imo and that's against North. Not sure, but probably a slight value bet.

**donkson** · 07-20-11, 04:05 AM

lol just by coincidence I saw that today as well, it's good value but I hate futures.

**Alt75** · 07-20-11, 09:18 AM

Welcome back dude

Sportingbet have final 8 props, Fremantle & Western Bulldogs $2.75 and Bulldogs are 2 games behind Freo. Melbourne 2.25, Essendon $2.

Fremantle have West Coast, Hawthorn at home, St Kilda at Etihad, Carlton at home, North at Etihad, Collingwood at home, Western Bulldogs at Etihad. Not a good run of games. Positions 6, 7, 8 may very well ended up being decided on percentage, looking over the rest of the fixture all the sides vying for a finals spot don't have an easy run for the rest of the season, I think Melbourne are best suited to sneako a finals spot with the easiest 8 points and possible decent percentage boosters against Suns and Port.

**Gee** · 07-20-11, 10:43 PM

Hey guys.

Haven't paid any attention at all to footy much this week. I've been really busy at work.

Very disappointing last few weeks (spreadsheet below) and I took one look at this weeks spreads and figured I won't be having much action. All the lines are almost unbettable :/ After such a good season, I don't want to give it all back at this stage of the season when it traditionally becomes a lot harder to pick games. I am going to play a teaser or two this weekend though.... Maybe Saints into the Pies...

Made some good money on Tarver last night! Hope someone saw my thread and got on, although prob not and 4-0 in bases, so +1000 in the last 12 hours. I don't wanna throw it away on shitty footy bets either!

Therealdeal: welcome back! I wouldn't be betting Freo. As Alt said, their run home is terrible and its possible that they don't win another game this year.

**MrXYZ** · 07-20-11, 11:16 PM

Congrats on cashing Tarver. Totally outclassed Green, who was over-hyped into those ridiculous odds. It was sad to see him stumbling around in a daze though.

Any thoughts on Swans/Bulldogs?

Both footy codes are tough to pick this week, good luck with your plays.

**Alt75** · 07-21-11, 12:13 AM

Gee lives! thought you'd gone the way of GroundNpound

Nice one on Tarver!

Didn't see your thread? Looked in the boxing/mma forum, to share one of the rare streams I found in case any other Aussies were looking and didn't notice any mention of the fight here at all. Most of the combat sport "experts" here only know of UFC since it's a ps3/360 game.

I chucked a few bucks on the KO/TKO prop at $8.50 myself. Antonio clearly wasn't a can that Green could crush. Lost $5 of it playing sng's and bases totals tho

btw anyone seen the 1Q line for Collingwood -18.5? thoughts?

**brettels** · 07-21-11, 12:23 AM

Take it! I will be on it too !

**Gee** · 07-21-11, 12:42 AM

Yeah, Pies 1Q line could be a play. You could probably just martingale each quarter on the pies until they cover one. They will cover one of the 4!

Alt: Nah, I won't just be disappearing. I'll keep going till the end of the season, then we'll see how we're going again in March next year! Although, plays will be a lot fewer than they have been to this point.

I posted about 45 mins before the fight started. The thread is there, but you prob checked at the wrong time. You found a stream?? I had $100 on Tarver and assumed I'd be able to find a stream... in the end i PPVd it for $50.00. At least Tarver won to pay it off! Where do you find these streams from? Nice call on the KO prop. I thought it was the way Tarver would win if he did, but he just outclassed Green the whole way. Wish I had a few dollars on that too. Green is finished IMO.