AFL opening spreads

[Gee]

if anyone caught the opening lines from Monday night/Tuesday morning, can they post them here?

will give points.

[rjc]

Bris +22.5
Port -53.5
Blues -23.5
North -1.5
Dons +26.5
Freo -7.5
Hawks +4.5
that was at centerbet on mon night. Pm me your email if you want a photo, as I took one on my phone

[rjc]

Port the only mover so far.

[ipod]

so some good lines this week

[Gee]

Bris +22.5 Port -53.5 Blues -23.5 North -1.5 Dons +26.5 Freo -7.5 Hawks +4.5 that was at centerbet on mon night. Pm me your email if you want a photo, as I took one on my phone

Thanks mate

I usually send myself an email each day, but dropped the ball here.

[Gee]

Port now 62.5??? Really???

can't believe i fukn missed that.

[rjc]

Cheers for the points Gee!
Yer port has moved alot ha.

[TwoWays]

Geez, Gold Coast. That is a ton of points but I dare someone to play the Suns.

[Gee]

Geez, Gold Coast. That is a ton of points but I dare someone to play the Suns.

no play for me.

betting on port to beat anyone by 60 points is asking for trouble. They are also in a massive let down spot considering they are playing the suns and just had a huge win vs crows.

I would have hit the opening line and almost feel sick that i missed it.

[TwoWays]

Ya, Port. is terrible. But what are the books supposed to do when they continue to lose their shirts on Gold Coast games.

[therealdealau]

will be playing gold coast line.

[Gee]

Ya, Port. is terrible. But what are the books supposed to do when they continue to lose their shirts on Gold Coast games.

Agreed.

Its a market overreaction. Everyone obviously smashed the opening line.

We missed out. One to watch I think or just take the over

[therealdealau]

I disagree, I think the line is extremely profitable - do you really think Port can beat the Suns by over 60?

I don't and will be hitting that line

[Gee]

I disagree, I think the line is extremely profitable - do you really think Port can beat the Suns by over 60? I don't and will be hitting that line

If I thought they could and would, I'd bet on the game.

As it stands, I don't think there is an obvious edge.

GL with your wager though. It would be nice to see the Suns not get smashed.

[TwoWays]

Yup, you can't just suddenly believe that a team, who's been smashed by more than 70+ in each of their three matchups this season, will keep it from getting out of hand. They must show that they can compete before my money will be on them again. But as it stands I might be skipping this game, baring a farther movement up in the line.

[Gee]

Yes. I agree entirely TwoWays.

I wouldn't even take it if the spread went up.

Fading them has made me a lot of money this year. I'm on disappointed I haven't gone bigger on each spread - 1x, 2x and 3x, so only a bit over a nickel. I'm kind of glad that I am going to have a week off. I'm not going to take a shit number for the sake of it, nor am I going to back Gold Coast. I believe from here on its about how much the opposition really wants to win by. Can't really cap that, so I don't know what I'm going to do with this team. I'm tempted to back them to not win a game this season. I just don't want my bookie to have my money for that long. I'm really thinking about it. Might put 2x down next week when I should withdraw.

[binomial]

One argument i would make against Port is that GC are poor at matching up after a turnover and teams can get alot of space and move the ball easily. However, to take advantage of this you have to make the effort to work into space and port can be lazier than anyone, especially their midfield.

That said i would look at playing port. GC youngters look tired already and stopped badly in the last quarter against Melbourne. 6 day break will not help them.

[Brian891]

any thoughts on saints today?

[Gee]

Bris +21.5 (1x). Thinking about o/175, but both teams are too shit, so maybe no play. No edge on a total. IMO. edit: ended up playing o/175.5 - see spreadsheet. 1x. It was a technical and positional qualifier for me.

Have also played North ML -111. (1x), Collingwood -26.5 at +105 (1x). May add to these two. Have a few things left to look at.

Likely play the suns over, depending on where it is set.

I suspect I will also be playing Geelong. Line is moving toward Hawks, so I might wait and see where it ends up. I can't figure out if Geelong are overated this year or not. double edit: i really can't figure out why the line is moving away from Geelong I also don't know where either team is really at this year. Its going to be an interesting season. Thoughts anyone?

[Gee]

Yay. Brisbane +21.5 cashes. Some scary moments at the end, but those lions have some balls and the saints are slow.

Fail on the over, but had a live bet of 1H u/80.5 with about 5 mins to go to cancel that out completely. Net 2-1. +1 unit.

[rjc]

Nice call on the lions Gee, I tailed you on that one.

[Gee]

Cheers RJC. It was a close one. Glad we were on the right side

I'm going to play over 188.5 in Port/Gold Coast game for 2.5x. For reasons above, I'm not going with a side.

Don't think I can touch Crows game, although I'd lean Blues... I might give it some more thought over the day.

[Gee]

Nice cash on GC over. Well done GC backers. Ended up with 3.5x on it. Crows under 191.5, 1x on it.

[rjc]

Cash the under Gee!
Nice call.

[Gee]

Nice RJC! Assume u jumped on! Good day. Let's get it again tomorrow! Afl has been v kind to me

[rjc]

Hey Gee, any leans for the North v Richmond game?

[ultrasouth]

Im leaning towards north melbourne but really its 50/50 game by 2 average teams

[therealdealau]

i've taken North Melbourne, write up in my thread - just thinking Kangaroos are more hungry

[Gee]

Agreed with north! Good luck mate. See a few posts back - booked this one a few days ago.

[rjc]

Oh I see it now , thanks mate.

[Gee]

Disappointing loss on North yesterday. Shit happens. They win that game far more often than not and looked the better side most of the day.

Hopefully get some back with the pies today.

Going to play Freo 1Q for 2x today. Playing the fading the team off a bye and having to travel angle - at least for the first quarter. I am going to get on them again if they lose it i think.

[rjc]

Holy crap lucky cover there!

[rjc]

I need P berry for the medal now!

[rjc]

Oh shit yer!!!!!!!!

[hedgejob]

How the fuk did Collingwood cover? I had 2x on -27.5 and I saw final score 101-77. I went out and when I came back I checked my Pinny account and it had been paid. Sick