AFL opening spreads

Gee · 05-02-11, 08:41 PM

The line has moved to 48.5 since I placed my bet this morning.

I just went to have a bit more on it... damn

at least i got it in...

Alt75 · 05-02-11, 08:49 PM

Fev was probably still at Crown when the lines opened and threw a few k down on his old mates

Restrepo · 05-03-11, 04:13 AM

Originally posted by Gee

Yeah, fail on Sydney. Sorry guys.

Can't really figure out if that was a bad beat or not. Carlton were good in the 2nd half. First half went as planned w syd missing a lot of chances and 2h went as I feared... Shit happens.

At least I got the live under (see a few posts back), so a -0.65x burner of a day. Could have been a lot worse...

Congrats to those on the blues.

I know im going back a bit here but anyway. I think the reason Sydney dropped off in the second half has a lot too do with two things

1) Sydney off the bye
2) Jack playing injured on Judd

Take nothing away from Judd he was awesome in the second half

I think if you get a close game and a team coming off the bye I will be on the team that played the week before.

Gee · 05-03-11, 06:55 PM

Originally posted by Restrepo

I know im going back a bit here but anyway. I think the reason Sydney dropped off in the second half has a lot too do with two things 1) Sydney off the bye 2) Jack playing injured on Judd Take nothing away from Judd he was awesome in the second half I think if you get a close game and a team coming off the bye I will be on the team that played the week before.

Always good to go back and have a look at things. I'm still not sure if i got this wrong or not... I think i might have - Carlton in the dry just played much better footy. Sydney caught some breaks in the wet... that interchange call seemed to deflate them as well.

I agree with the Jack comment. Judd was immense and Jack was doing a good job in the 1H.

I think the bye angle is really hard to cap. We're also reaching a point where the players are all match hardened and it may start to become an advantage, as rest usually is... Maybe they got tired and faded - i dunno.

Gee · 05-05-11, 07:14 PM

Its pretty simple tonight at first glance - its not really; other than on form.

Port aren't playing for each other and have gotten up for one game this season - the showdown. Everything else - horrible.

Then you've got Hawks who are wildly inconsistent - they can score 5 goals in 5 mins, then go to sleep. They are also off a bye, although I'm not convinced this is a solid angle, particularly since Hawks only played 10 days ago.

There is no doubt in my mind that the play here is Hawks -28.5 (2x). edit: haven't booked it yet, but 70% sure i will. There are a few things I do not like... second edit: Hawks are now -25.5. No idea why. I'm going to monitor this one over the day.

I'm also leaning over, but will keep my eye on the weather and some stats before making a play.

Final edit: I have now played Hawks -25.5 (2x). I do not see how the line drops or stays still.Don'tcare that this appears to be RLM or that Hawks are off a bye or that they play terribly at AAMI or that Port have to get up soon or that they should be fired up after moving to adelaide oval and securing their future or that Port have a good record vs Hawks or that Port, historically, are known to get up for games after thumpings. Some of the things I saw last week showed that the Port footy club simply aren't playing for each other... standing still. not helping each other out etc etc etc. It was poor.

Trusting my capping here. We'll see how we go. Not going to play a total.

Alt75 · 05-05-11, 08:32 PM

In dry weather I like Hawks to cover at HT/FT. I think they have too strong a structure for the Power to trouble them. Bit concerned about the bye, but I'm thinking (hoping) Hawks will have kept their fitness and ball handling skills up to scratch, should easily cover at FT, if they play at 100% Port are getting done by 10 goals +

rjc · 05-05-11, 11:38 PM

Sportsbet has got the Cats at $3.20 next week against the pies

This could be a very big bet for me next week, can't wait to see the spread.

benrama · 05-05-11, 11:58 PM

RLM tells me Port are expected to come out and play strong tonight. Hawthorn spread almost looks too easy, so I'm gonna and put money on Hawthorn/Australia(NRL)/Reds parlay, paying about 1.70 on Pinnacle.

Alt75 · 05-06-11, 12:45 AM

Lots of late money coming in on Port straight? Dropped from around $5 to $4.20 in the last hour or so.

rjc · 05-06-11, 12:59 AM

Originally posted by Alt75

Lots of late money coming in on Port straight? Dropped from around $5 to $4.20 in the last hour or so.

I know, what's with that

Alt75 · 05-06-11, 01:17 AM

Originally posted by rjc

I know, what's with that

Either smart money or the Port fans pounding the ML?

I dunno maybe some of the more knowledgeable bettors will know what's up with the movement.

On sportsbet, it went from $5.50, to $4.22 to $4.85 now to $4.65

Gee · 05-06-11, 01:22 AM

Some huge money also on Port this morning.

When I typed my original post a few up, it was 28.5. Within an hour, it was 25.5. Now its 24.5...

The factors I refer to above are the reasons for the drop I assume, but it seems to me that the bookies are taking a huge risk here. (Unless there are injuries not known to the public yet)

Money came for Port last week as well on the basis of "they have to turn up after the Gold Coast debacle." Nup.

My view is the same will happen today. I'm going to trust myself here...

edit: its definately RLM. Books know (or think they know) something. Of 250K ML bets on betfair matched, 238K on Hawks...

) History of Hawks at ground and vs Port with that kind of spread is terrible. It may be to do with that... But with all the money on Hawks anyway, why would the books do that? It makes no sense, which makes me think I could get buried tonight... Books are taking a stand here and I don't get it.

Alt75 · 05-06-11, 01:36 AM

Agreed, they likely can't get up and win or get the win they're "due" for when they don't play for each other and don't have the skill on the list to compete with the top sides, let alone the bottom ones. I'd rather make my picks from how the teams match up, recent form and how they have played against the same sides rather than follow the bookies/line movement. The only thing that I'm concerned about is Hawthorn aren't the best travellers and as you mentioned can be prone to lapses. However, I don't think Port can capitalise on Hawthorns mistakes enough to win, cover perhaps. Unlikely based on how they've been playing football.

benrama · 05-06-11, 02:41 AM

I think Hawthorn backers can take solace in the fact that the books have been well off on a lot of games early in the season, and also the AFL is one of the cleanest sports to bet on - IMO. That said Hawthorn have showed how unpredictable they are and it only takes them to play average and Port to step it up for the spreads to be in danger. Still prefer it in a parlay myself.

On a side note, for any of you with large bankrolls willing to take an educated but large punt, Djokovic is -325 odds (1.3 ish) to NOT win the Madrid Open and two of the people he will face to win he's never beaten on clay, including Nadal who is playing in his home country - I think this is one of those bets you need to capitalise on as they come up rarely. Include it in a parlay if you must.

binomial · 05-06-11, 04:33 AM

IMO hawks side doesn't look great on paper and they haven't been playing well.

Port have looked hideous however and hard not to see them getting flogged.

therealdealau · 05-06-11, 05:28 AM

good luck we are on other sides of this game but its my system play, there was a late change to the hawks roster - murphy is playing now dont know if that really changes anything

Alt75 · 05-06-11, 07:00 AM

Dammit Port remembered how to play footy tonight, missed the HT line and FT is looking shaky. Your system might pay off, realdeal.

I'm hoping for a 10 goal 2nd half thrashing by Hawks though.

rjc · 05-06-11, 07:04 AM

Someone put their careers on the line tonight.

rjc · 05-06-11, 07:43 AM

Don't forget port let a 40 point leed go to the suns.

Alt75 · 05-06-11, 08:05 AM

Port looked to be imploding at the end of the 3Q but Hawks are sloppy, this game's looking like ammies with the poor disposal and decision making, passing to team mates under pressure.

Hawks by 19 with 7 mins to go, hopefully they can get a few easy late goals and cover.

benrama · 05-06-11, 08:26 AM

Congrats guys, was cheering for you at the end there, couldn't watch the whole game as I was out with the wife - looked like it was quite the sweat. I cashed on the Reds/Australia/Hawks parlay so $$$ all round.

therealdealau · 05-06-11, 09:45 AM

good win for you guys, although i am happy with the outcome Port could have easily covered and my system about teams coming off a bye could be a winner - hawthorne were useless early! congrats hawk backers

Gee · 05-06-11, 11:04 AM

I'll take it

Didn't deserve it, but square plays win sometimes

Books were right, but AFL can be very fickle. It really could have gone either way.

Will finalize tomorrow's thoughts in the morning.

benrama · 05-06-11, 05:42 PM

Yep, books pretty much nailed that spread last night.

Today I'm really liking two plays:

Bulldogs/Essendon parlay @ +105
Freemantle -7.5 @ -102

Bulldogs were impressive against Collingwood and were the best chance this year of pulling off the upset. The final margin was completely unrepresentative of what happened, it was more a 2-3 goal game. The fact it ended up blowing up like it did is part of why we have this line so low this week. Sydney are a good side but on their home ground I see Bulldogs winning this one by 15-20 points. Regardless I'm taking a parlay with Essendon - no way I see the 'dons losing at home to WCE so I see this as a way of getting an extra 5.5 points with better odds for little extra risk.

Freemantle to me are still the sleeper team from last year. Yes they are coming off a bye, but like I see the importance of that diminishing as the season goes on. We are getting a good line here because Richmond beat the woeful Lions last week by 26 points and also won their previous home game against North Melbourne - another horrible team. I've watched Freemantle play now 3 times this season, and I've watched Richmond 3 times and Freemantle in my opinion are in a different class. Yes Freemantle have been hit hard by injuries (Hinkley, Clarke, etc), but Richmond have Tuck and Moore out which balances this out.

Gee · 05-06-11, 09:59 PM

I agree on Bulldogs and am playing a Bulldogs/Brisbane/Geelong ML parlay paying +104 (2x).

I am also playing Bulldogs/Swans o/171.5 (2x).

I may also be on North +45.5, but I may not play it. Not entirely sure yet. Value may have been lost from when it was at 49.5. Probably one to watch.

Ace_of_Spades · 05-07-11, 12:01 AM

I had to walk away from this dogs game, just horrible to watch.

Gee · 05-07-11, 03:40 AM

Yeah, terrible. 4 unit burner stings.

Also glad I stayed away from North and Freo. Cannot take them as favourites at the G yet or anyone vs geelong at skilled (except maybe pies). So feel good that I layed off those two, or it could have been burial day.

On to the next. Put in Lions -44.5 2x earlier this week. Just put in o/193.5. 2x. Suns have been over machines. just riding it.

Gee · 05-07-11, 05:10 AM

Buried today

rjc · 05-07-11, 07:13 AM

Crap!!!'

Pherst · 05-07-11, 09:28 AM

Originally posted by benrama

Yep, books pretty much nailed that spread last night.

Today I'm really liking two plays:

Bulldogs/Essendon parlay @ +105
Freemantle -7.5 @ -102

Bulldogs were impressive against Collingwood and were the best chance this year of pulling off the upset. The final margin was completely unrepresentative of what happened, it was more a 2-3 goal game. The fact it ended up blowing up like it did is part of why we have this line so low this week. Sydney are a good side but on their home ground I see Bulldogs winning this one by 15-20 points. Regardless I'm taking a parlay with Essendon - no way I see the 'dons losing at home to WCE so I see this as a way of getting an extra 5.5 points with better odds for little extra risk.

Freemantle to me are still the sleeper team from last year. Yes they are coming off a bye, but like I see the importance of that diminishing as the season goes on. We are getting a good line here because Richmond beat the woeful Lions last week by 26 points and also won their previous home game against North Melbourne - another horrible team. I've watched Freemantle play now 3 times this season, and I've watched Richmond 3 times and Freemantle in my opinion are in a different class. Yes Freemantle have been hit hard by injuries (Hinkley, Clarke, etc), but Richmond have Tuck and Moore out which balances this out.

Tuck went out for Jackson to come back from suspension which is more than a capable replacement. Bulldogs / Sydney was at a neutral ground in Canberra so in reality both teams are having to travel for this one.

PS. Fremantle only has one 'e' at the start.

benrama · 05-07-11, 05:54 PM

Originally posted by Pherst

Tuck went out for Jackson to come back from suspension which is more than a capable replacement. Bulldogs / Sydney was at a neutral ground in Canberra so in reality both teams are having to travel for this one.

PS. Fremantle only has one 'e' at the start.

Yep, bad day for me, that's why I only bet 1 UNIT a play, never get buried that way.

benrama · 05-07-11, 05:59 PM

Bulldogs were terrible, and as for the Freo game, well that's best left with nothing said about it. Cudos to Richmond though.

Only play I like today is a St George / Essendon parlay @ 1.86

Duff85 · 05-07-11, 06:39 PM

Had a slice of Port Adelaide on Friday Night due to the late money movement. Stayed away from Richmond yesterday afternoon, but hit the Gold Coast for half a unit straight up last night at $7.75. That one paid for the beers at the Gabba last night. :-)

Gee · 05-07-11, 07:59 PM

Been an ordinary weekend.

Today I'm playing Eagles/Bombers o/193.5, Eagles +29.5 and Crows +2.5 for 2x each.

donkson · 05-07-11, 08:01 PM

Bombers are too short.

edit - liking all of those plays.