AFL opening spreads

**waco66** · 04-28-11, 09:38 PM

Hey Gee...well done..i should've followed your pick before i throw away my money. Solid capping.

**Restrepo** · 04-28-11, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by Gee

I'm not going to buy out of the Swannies tonight for 1.5x. May add a unit or so to it even. Carlton, like Melbourne and many Victorian teams, travel badly. They have not won at the small SCG since 1993 (despite going 22-3 in 1995

). Contrary to most opinions, I don't see the bye being an issue tonight. Swans have had a grueling start to the season and needed it. The draw angle will only last so long, before it starts working the other way.

I see this as a similar match to last night (and hopefully similar result!) with Carlton, who will want to use the corridor and run, against Sydney's relentless pressure game. Unfortunately, its also a revenge spot for Carlton, after Swans knocked them out last year. I don't know how that works into AFL - never really looked at that angle too closely.

Only one Aus/UK book still hanging 3.5 from what I can see. Still there at US books. Most of the early money has come for Sydney. West Coast, Sydney and Saints games were the three games I said stood out to me this week. All lines have moved towards me. Lets hope they are sharp

edit: Under could be a go too. Forecast is not good for Sydney today or tonight. I'll assess through the day.

Can confirm it is very wet up in Sydney (think I heard Sydney got 70mms in the last 24hours yesterday) and as I look out of the office window it is very cloudy and still raining. I think its been raining for the last 5 or so days now.

**Alt75** · 04-28-11, 10:25 PM

Was just looking at the BOM site and thinking about the over/under for tonight's game. Thanks for the info Restrepo.

o/u is 158.5 on sportsbet, usually not up on sportingbet till an hour or so before the game starts.

**Restrepo** · 04-28-11, 10:29 PM

I finish work in 3 hours, ill give you all an update before I leave

**Restrepo** · 04-29-11, 01:25 AM

Still a bit cloudy out but some most of it is now high cloud. We may get a little drizzle throughout the game tonight but i wouldn't expect any downpours (famous last words?). The SCG will still be very wet under foot with all the rain we've had over the past week.

Good Punting!

**binomial** · 04-29-11, 02:04 AM

pretty windy also which should make it harder to score.

**Gee** · 04-29-11, 02:25 AM

Thanks Restrepo!

All that means for me is no play i think, unless I see something strongly in the conditions when i get some footage or an update from restopo saying the under is a LOCK. I am strongly leaning under, but I think I will just leave it. Now I will be air-betting the over

Loving the line steaming toward us again. -5.5 at all shops I can see now. Of course, there is a good chance its just weight of money - looks like 80% on Swannies at betfair at least.

I see some of you guys have played 1-39. I like it and think its worth playing, so i'll have a crack for 0.5x, giving me a total of 2.15x on the game to win about the same.

I've just discovered that my local pub shows friday night games live here in perth. nice.

**therealdealau** · 04-29-11, 04:49 AM

Originally posted by Gee

Thanks Restrepo!

All that means for me is no play i think, unless I see something strongly in the conditions when i get some footage or an update from restopo saying the under is a LOCK. I am strongly leaning under, but I think I will just leave it. Now I will be air-betting the over

Loving the line steaming toward us again. -5.5 at all shops I can see now. Of course, there is a good chance its just weight of money - looks like 80% on Swannies at betfair at least.

I see some of you guys have played 1-39. I like it and think its worth playing, so i'll have a crack for 0.5x, giving me a total of 2.15x on the game to win about the same.

I've just discovered that my local pub shows friday night games live here in perth. nice.

what pub mate? i am also in perth and struggle to find a place for the game, without heading to the cas and losing my winnings on the tables

is it played on foxtel?

**Gee** · 04-29-11, 05:18 AM

therealdeal: its on at the paddo. i think its also at the inglewood. its also on silversportz.co.uk.

may head down at half time. gf coming back soon.

just had a live bet 1.5x on u/160.5. this scoring cannot continue, but i suck at live betting

edit: ps it must be a special pub license they have. it isn't on normal fox.

**rumple** · 04-29-11, 06:32 AM

Nice collapse by Sydney, f'in duechbags.

**Alt75** · 04-29-11, 07:07 AM

what kind of mascot is a swan anyway, bunch of queers.

**biggie12** · 04-29-11, 07:40 AM

oh well gee you can't win em all. Stay focused and pick a winner for today

**Gee** · 04-29-11, 07:51 AM

Yeah, fail on Sydney. Sorry guys.

Can't really figure out if that was a bad beat or not. Carlton were good in the 2nd half. First half went as planned w syd missing a lot of chances and 2h went as I feared... Shit happens.

At least I got the live under (see a few posts back), so a -0.65x burner of a day. Could have been a lot worse...

Congrats to those on the blues.

**Lookingtostart** · 04-29-11, 08:29 AM

I picked Sydney as well, -3.5. Looking back now, knowing that it was wet I should have gone with carlton because they have three very good/important smalls, especially Garlan's this season.

**maroona** · 04-29-11, 09:42 AM

Sydney disappointing but in those conditions its basically a coinflip anyway so don't read too much into it, onto tomorrow..

**Gee** · 04-29-11, 12:11 PM

Originally posted by Lookingtostart

I picked Sydney as well, -3.5. Looking back now, knowing that it was wet I should have gone with carlton because they have three very good/important smalls, especially Garlan's this season.

Brilliant post. Nailed the game perfectly.

Firstly, his name is GARLETT. Secondly, have a look at the score at half time - Swans by 14, they were dominating play and missed a lot of good chances. The conditions were fairly reasonable after half time. The rain stopped and 'Garlan's' and other's (sic) played v. well.

To say you predicted that Carlton were the wet weather play after the game played out like it did is one of the stupidest things I have read.

**Lookingtostart** · 04-29-11, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by Gee

To say you predicted that Carlton were the wet weather play after the game played out like it did is one of the stupidest things I have read.

I did not mean it like that. What I really meant is that I should have looked into the game more closely before hand, and granted, I may have reviewed the game wrong.

**birdmanweezy** · 04-29-11, 09:28 PM

what are the plays for tonight...

**birdmanweezy** · 04-29-11, 09:57 PM

well i like port + 15.5 to start....although market is moving the other way....coming up with about a 98-88 game via my prediction model...with port having about a 42-45% chance of winning straight up

**Gee** · 04-29-11, 10:53 PM

Nice Birdy. I don't really like any of these spreads today.

I wouldn't worry too much about the movement. public is all over north. opened at 16.5. the fact it even moved to 15.5 is good for you.

Saints already locked in tonight.

Few strange plays for me today. I'm going to play North Melb/Richmond for 2x, but also Port +16.5 for 1x. Really a bit of a hedge. Huge motivation for Port today, but they are awful. Richmond should be too good for Brisbane, but Richmond aren't a team I'm comfortable laying 17 points on.

Also u/198.5 for 2x in North/Port.

Hope I don't get buried here

**birdmanweezy** · 04-29-11, 11:05 PM

port +15.5 -115 for me smaller than normal play

**Gee** · 04-30-11, 01:12 AM

Meh.

Buried on the under. 70 points in the 3rd quarter

Lets get NM/Richmond ML and Saints to salvage my day.

**therealdealau** · 04-30-11, 01:36 AM

lets go saints

**Alt75** · 04-30-11, 01:54 AM

man you guys are brave for playing the saints v crows, best of luck

**benrama** · 04-30-11, 04:26 AM

Saints 1-39 and Adelaide 1-39 for me, don't see a blow-out either way. Also don't mind a pick the margin bet two goals either side of the predicted line, i.e. 12 bets at 1/12 units each (actually 13 bets - one bet on the draw), average odds of about 25 to 1, essentially getting 2 to 1 odds for the books being within 2 goals of the finishing score.

**Alt75** · 04-30-11, 05:41 AM

This isn't looking good for you guys who backed the Saints.

Feel for you guys but I can't help smile at seeing the St.Rapists get raped. New rule for AFL club cohesion, don't let your dick pics get tweeted pre-season by a groupie your midfield rotated.

**benrama** · 04-30-11, 06:10 AM

As a Saints supporter, this is embarassing, not just because they are losing but the way they are losing. They look like B grade hacks, and have no team-work or movement off the ball.

**Pherst** · 04-30-11, 08:01 AM

Yep - Saints backline needs some work. Too scared to kick it long and all they do is kick sideways and turn it over...

**brettels** · 04-30-11, 09:19 AM

GET USED TO THIS

Oh, we're from Tigerland,
A fighting fury, we're from Tigerland,
In any weather you will see us with a grin,
Risking head and shin,
If we're behind then never mind,
We'll fight and fight and win.

For we're from Tigerland,
We'll never weaken 'til the final siren's gone.
Like the Tigers of old,
We're strong and we're bold.
For we're from Tiger yellow and black,
For we're from Tigerland.

**Gee** · 05-01-11, 02:52 AM

lol brettels. I'm glad they cashed my parlay! I shouldn't have bothered playing it so safe.

Saints terrible. Not sure whats wrong with them this year, but staying away from them for a while. I have faded them the last 2 weeks.

Gold Coast embarrassing. I ended up taking Bombers again at half time.

I'm taking Pies -21.5 2H in this game vs Bulldogs 2X. I'm not getting any better value than if before game, but am liking what i'm seeing. Hopefully close out a nice day.

**Gee** · 05-01-11, 05:31 PM

Nice winners on Pies and Bombers yesterday after an ordinary weekend to still finish up money on the weekend without chasing.

I wish I'd middled the pricks twice by getting on Suns +187.5 at quarter time

That just seemed a bit ridiculous.

**donkson** · 05-02-11, 02:12 AM

lmao

**Gee** · 05-02-11, 03:13 AM

Seriously,

+187.5!!! I'm kicking myself that I had mates over for UFC, was busy and thought 'i'll just ride out my bombers bet'...

hopefully we get a similar situation this season to go big on

**Gee** · 05-02-11, 06:29 PM

Lions -44.5 (2x)

I think it opened at 41.5. Dropped the ball here....

They have been very competitive for much of every game this year, desperately need to win. Time to send a bit of a message that they are a real AFL club and the Suns aren't there yet.

**Alt75** · 05-02-11, 07:28 PM

Sportsbet have Brisbane opened at -49.5 @ $1.92 / -53.5 @ $2.10

I think these will change significantly during the week.
Hawthorn -34.5 @ $2.10 v Port
Sydney +1.5 @ $2.10 v Bulldogs