AFL opening spreads

Pherst · 05-15-11, 07:30 AM

Should have followed you for my office tipping comp...

Gee · 05-15-11, 05:54 PM

Nice weekend.

Pherst: probably wouldn't have done you much good - I was on the Saints :/

I'm a bit surprised no lines (even ML) are up yet. Looking at the matchups, I suspect we might get priced out of Freo and Collingwood.... If there is any big, breaking injury news or outs during the week, someone post up please.

I'm not great at League, but like a Monday night punt... Whats good? I usually just fade the side that the centrebet monday night football email is trying to get me to bet - i'm about 5/5 doing that this year

Anyway, updated record from when i started keeping a spreadsheet below - look at gee.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet for the full thing:

35 - 17: +24 units.

Reno Paul · 05-15-11, 06:33 PM

Way to go Gee!

Gee · 05-16-11, 12:54 AM

Thanks Reno!

Opening spreads are out now.

I've already locked in Freo/Geelong ML parlay paying +120 (2x) and Freo -13.5 (1.5x).

Theres a good chance I'll end up on Geelong spread and Saints too...

48.5 is about right fro Collingwood too, but I think i'll see how that moves over the week. There are some really good games next week IMO.

Bic · 05-16-11, 02:13 AM

I like Carlton, Geelong way overs because of their win against the Pies.

Gee · 05-16-11, 02:25 AM

Originally posted by Bic

I like Carlton, Geelong way overs because of their win against the Pies.

Yup, thats why I've taken them in a ML parlay and not sure about laying the points... I'll probably be a square and do so though

I think they are the real deal though and have really impressed me this year. Beating Sydney, Hawks and Pies as 3 of their last 4 wins = huge. Carlton have been impressive, but Cats are good at stiffling teams like them...

donkson · 05-16-11, 05:09 AM

Richmond line looks ok too, Watson and Hocking are huge outs, and Hurley might not be back.

Bic · 05-16-11, 08:05 AM

Watson out been 100% confirmed?

Really liking St Kildas value here, I think they belt the dees...

Alt75 · 05-16-11, 12:47 PM

Looks like he's out for 2 according to The Age.

Watson out for at least two matches

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/watson-out-for-at-least-two-matches-20110516-1epwq.html

''Not great news with the scan coming back positive. With the bye coming up should only miss two matches,'' Watson said on Twitter yesterday.

Well it's on twitter, that's pretty much official these days.

Congrats on the epic weekend Gee

Gee · 05-20-11, 12:41 AM

Well the line that I don't bet the spread steams towards me (Geelong out 2 points to 15.5) and the game I bet the spread steams against me (Freo in from -13.5 to -10.5).

I'm happy with Freo though. My view is that this is an overreaction to Fremantle's injury problems.

Probably going to take it pretty easy this week with AFL. All these lines look pretty sharp.

rjc · 05-20-11, 01:31 AM

Anyone like the under in tonights game? Set @ 180.5

Bazz27 · 05-20-11, 01:51 AM

Now 182.5 on c/bet

Gee · 05-20-11, 01:54 AM

I would really like the under if it were anywhere but etihad.

Its gone up to 182.5 now... I will wait for it to go up more and prob take it just before close.

Just added Saints/Bombers ML parlay at +117 for 1x.

I will have the under tonight at for 1x, Geelong/Freo ML parlay for 2x and Freo -13.5 (1.5x).

That may well be it for the round. Its a really fukn hard round.

I don't recommend anyone goes big on anything, but good luck if you do.

Restrepo · 05-20-11, 03:46 AM

game total line out to 186.5

rjc · 05-20-11, 04:35 AM

Originally posted by Restrepo

game total line out to 186.5

forget the under

Gee · 05-21-11, 04:07 AM

Ah yeah, that was a bit of a silly action bet on the under.

Cash Freo and the Freo/Cats ML parlay though.

Essendon/Saints is still pending, but the Saints were good. It was close on the cover, so kind of glad I didn't sweat that one out.

I'm going to play the over in Brisbane for 1.5x if the weather is good - I need a live feed. Essendon and Richmond are over machines, but 207.5 is just too high!

Playing North ML 1x.

Gee · 05-21-11, 04:33 AM

Ok North ML 1x and u/91.5 1H for 1X are locked in.

Its raining, but don't know if it'll last. Hopefully starts pissing down for the entire 1H

Gee · 05-21-11, 07:12 PM

Bombers and North don't come out after half time :/ damn. Still + money on the weekend. WIsh I'd gone bigger on that under in Brisbane - why didn't any of the queenslanders in here say something about the weather? It was terrible.

Not going to touch the Swans/Hawks game. Unlikely to play Eagles/Bulldogs too...lines are pretty tight.

Last plays of the weekend: Pies -49.5 at EV for 1.5x, Pies TT o/113.5 for 1.1x and total o/173.5 for 1.1x.

alias69 · 05-21-11, 07:25 PM

crows TT over 60.5 seems pretty gud value considering there only gone below this total twice at etihad stadium against saints.

Gee · 05-21-11, 10:04 PM

lol, total has moved 13 points to 186.5. TT has moved accordingly too.

Should have hit it a lot harder

I still think it goes over this, but will lay off...

I like Crows TT too, but wouldnt bet on it. Crows have been anemic at times this season..

Gee · 05-21-11, 11:31 PM

Wow.

Crows looking unstoppable :/

Eagles/bulldogs o176.5 for 2.5x. Total is a about 10 points low here...

Gee · 05-22-11, 03:58 AM

Cash the over. More than 10 points too low. Eagles are impressive.

Decent weekend overall. Pretty pleased to have ended 5 units up, considering how tough I found it to cap.

aunty jack · 05-22-11, 06:14 AM

that's a very solid return... and i think you've won 15 or so from your last 20 picks.

i'm currently on a bit of a break, but i still check the boards every now and then. i like to see decent people win - and more importantly, learn a few things about how they win.

cheers.

rjc · 05-22-11, 09:18 PM

Nice weekend Gee!
You going to have a just for action play for Monday night footy?

Gee · 05-22-11, 11:59 PM

Originally posted by rjc

Nice weekend Gee! You going to have a just for action play for Monday night footy?

Cheers

You know it

Always gotta get some action with a few beers and dinner on a Monday Night. Life isn't quite the same without it.

Going to take Eels -7.

Reasoning? Title of my Centrebet email says this: "Sharks $2.80 have won 5 of past 6 versus the Eels!" It then quotes a stack of stats to back up that play. It's like fading JJgold - easy money

Eels looked like the play anyway. Sharks have no forward pack this week.

GroundnPound · 05-23-11, 12:38 AM

Am on eels -6.5 got it at $1.91 which isn't too bad.

So dumb that a sportbook gives betting advice.. Has to be faded which we are doing

Gee · 05-23-11, 05:24 AM

How r u GnP? Haven't seen you at all this season! Been betting much? Hows study?

Nice stress free cash at 34 -0. And still 20 mins to go

The centrebet monday night fade has been money this season. Love it.

Gee · 05-23-11, 05:54 AM

Originally posted by aunty jack

that's a very solid return... and i think you've won 15 or so from your last 20 picks. i'm currently on a bit of a break, but i still check the boards every now and then. i like to see decent people win - and more importantly, learn a few things about how they win. cheers.

Thanks buddy. You gotta get back in the game. We only get 22 regular season weeks of AFL in any given year and you are wasting it on a break! I'm going to be in Bali for a few weeks coming up and I'm annoyed that I'm going to miss two weeks

Not sure if I can teach you much, but I'll try to keep capping winners

Gee · 05-23-11, 06:56 AM

Early plays: Geelong -64.5 (2x); Richmond -30.5 (1x). Still looking, but there are a few early numbers I like.

I'm, strangely, liking every favourite to cover

benrama · 05-23-11, 06:59 AM

Good work Gee, sometimes it really is that easy

GroundnPound · 05-23-11, 07:03 AM

Originally posted by Gee

How r u GnP? Haven't seen you at all this season! Been betting much? Hows study?

Nice stress free cash at 34 -0. And still 20 mins to go

The centrebet monday night fade has been money this season. Love it.

Just don't bet as hardcore mainly to the fact don't have as much $$ throw around. Just some weekends when I am bored I have a punt. Study took 6 months off for some reason..Hows thing going, seems like your red hot in your tips ?

Parramatta allowed me not to sweat at all.

maroona · 05-23-11, 07:09 AM

Nice work over the weekend on AFL Gee, how bad were the bulldogs, no score in the last qtr, I really rate West Coast this year, looks like they got it together, its good that centrebet give you tips to bet against as well, wonder how many out there take their advice

, eels were always going to win tonight, keep up the good work mate..

maroona · 05-23-11, 07:14 AM

Originally posted by GroundnPound

Just don't bet as hardcore mainly to the fact don't have as much $$ throw around. Just some weekends when I am bored I have a punt. Study took 6 months off for some reason..Hows thing going, seems like your red hot in your tips ?

Parramatta allowed me not to sweat at all.

Hey GnP, good to see you back mate..

aunty jack · 05-23-11, 07:15 AM

nice hit on the eels tonight, chaps. it was never in doubt.

keep up the good work. i'm on the sidelines for a while because i recently decided to cash out to fund my daughter's classical music studies (tuition etc). it's money well spent, but i do miss a saturday arvo punt.

in the meantime, i don't mind trawling through the forums here and at a few other sites trying to find disciplined and sharp cappers who know what, when and how much to bet... and when to lay off. trust me, they're few and far between.

hope you enjoy your bali trip. cheers.

benrama · 05-23-11, 07:28 AM

On first look at the lines, I like Freemantle -10.5 and West Coast +34.5. I'm a Saints fan and have watched every game, including the one against Melbourne at the weekend - which did my head in watching. This team is still well and truly psychologically battered and are a skeleton of their former self. Goddard in particular is just shot for confidence.

West Coast are still getting no respect with the line set against Collingwood. At the moment I put them up there with Essendon and Carlton in the 2nd group of teams chasing the top 2. I wouldn't give Collingwood +35 points head start with any of these 3. West Coast are fast starters though, and Collingwood strong finishers so I'll probably the 1H line.