AFL opening spreads

[Gee]

I'll take it Collingwood have had some miracle covers this season.

Square play here. Pies/Eagles o/192.5. This is probably a dumb play :/ Stats line up, but I have a bad feeling here. 1.5x.

[Gee]

Fail on the over. Should have trusted my gut

Two plays on the late game. 2x each. Again, they are both square. Hawks -22.5 and o/191.5. Lets get this for a great weekend.

[slappa]

Good luck Gee, with you on the over 191.5

[rjc]

Hey Gee, souths must be the play! The centrebet email headline is "panthers value at -4 $1.92. Haha

[rjc]

Is it really wet in Sydney?
The total is very low for these two teams.

[Bazz27]

they say there average total against each other is 55pts ?????

[Alt75]

There's been thunder storms in Sydney.

Summary: Few storms. Rain, heavy at times. Chance of any rain: 95% Metropolitan area

Cloudy. Rain, heavy at times and isolated thunderstorms. Winds southerly averaging 20 to 30 km/h.

I'm really loathe to bet on Souths, I originally picked Penrith and think they have been in slightly better form recently, that centrebet email is a worry though and it really becomes a coin flip in the wet.

If it's awfully wet it would most likely be very close, lots of errors and penalties and could be decided by a drop goal. I'm always iffy on a side winning by more than an unconverted try in the wet.

stats for the game are here

http://live.nrlstats.com/matches/nrl/match7184.html?page=head-to-head

[Gee]

Hey guys.

I've been in Kalgoorlie on business, so haven't got the time to be on SBR much. Bit of an ordinary Sunday. Recap of the weekend below. I played a few action games that I should have really left alone. Still a winning weekend though. I'll take it.

I missed Monday night footy, but I would have been on the losing side for sure. Keeps my streak of fading centrebet alive (by good luck, rather than skill).

Did anyone happen to catch the opening AFL lines?

[Bazz27]

Mate 55%, u gotta be happy with that each week, n we're all here for the marathon, not the sprint right !! But an old bloke did once tell me years ago, moneys made flat not to go round but so you can stack it !!

[brettels]

easy money next week take the swans to beat pretenders in richmond!!!! put the house on it!

[Bazz27]

yer they owe me from last week as they didn't cover the -7.5, only 1pt winners

[Lookingtostart]

Does anyone know where I can get Daniel Merrett as first player to score a goal this weekend?

[rjc]

hey mate opening line were;

Dons -27.5
cats-39.5
west coast -64.5
pies -29.5
lions -2.5
Hawthorn -39.5
North -12.5
Port + 30.5

[Gee]

Thanks buddy.

A lot of sharp lines this week...

I made a few bets for the sake of it last weekend and lost them all. Will be being a lot more selective this weekend.

[Gee]

Mate 55%, u gotta be happy with that each week, n we're all here for the marathon, not the sprint right !! But an old bloke did once tell me years ago, moneys made flat not to go round but so you can stack it !!

Yup, well 55% it would be a regression on the season - one i'm not ready for yet!

65% on tracked plays so far this year. Hoping to keep it around there if possible (as hard as it is over a larger sample size)

[Bic]

Melbourne are value tonight I think... Loving the under. Gonna be cold tonight.

[Gee]

Melbourne are value tonight I think... Loving the under. Gonna be cold tonight.

Yeah, I am predicting a similar game to last week.

u/185.5 for 1x and Melb TT u/80.5 for 1x.

Good luck whatever everyone is on!

[WillC]

Anyone know the smallest spread for a suns game this year?

I got my eyes on them against North next week

[Gee]

WillC: Pretty sure 34.5 v adelaide would be the lowest (off the to of my head). I think that closed at 39.5...

Don't like either of these big spreads or totals in the day games.

Only play I like is Geelong TT o/110.5. 2x.

[Bic]

Anyone know the smallest spread for a suns game this year?

I got my eyes on them against North next week

+25.5 against Carlton in round 2. They lost by 100 odd points.

[Gee]

yeah. im going to take the eagles now the line has dropped to -63.5. 2x.

If suns cover, I'll start taking them more seriously, but i see a mauling.

[Alt75]

3 easy goals in the first few mins for Eagles, this isn't looking good for the Suns.

Best of luck guys

[aunty jack]

cats are ruthless at kardinia this arvo.

you've almost banked the geelong team total wager at half time, gee.

[Alt75]

Damn Suns! Unless they are playing the likes of Collingwood or Cats again I'd be wary of any team covering over 30 - 40 points against them now.

Any thoughts on the o/u 164.5 for the Pies Saints game?

Pies averaging 17 goals a game, Saints only 11 but they have the forward line to put up a decent score.

With the weather being dry and fine, relatively mild winds and the total is kinda low, over is the play?

Forecast for the rest of Saturday

Summary Mainly dry. Melbourne area

Mostly dry with only the chance of a shower. Winds west to northwesterly averaging 10 to 20 km/h.

[donkson]

I think teams just switch off against them now. But to be fair they have improved a lot.

[Gee]

cats are ruthless at kardinia this arvo. you've almost banked the geelong team total wager at half time, gee.

Yup, that was pretty cruisy. Unfortunately the Eagles couldn't keep going after the 1st quarter :/ Gold Coast are a team to be wary of from now in and there may even be some value in backing them...

I'm going to play Swans +1.5 for 2x tonight.

Alt: yeah, over is prob the play, but not touching it...

[Gee]

Easy winner on the Swans there.

Two early plays. Hawks -32.5 for 2x and u/174.5 for 1x.

Doubt I'll touch the Crows game and still looking over the Carlton game...

[birdmanweezy]

carlton/north melb parlay -102...

[Gee]

Buried on Hawks and under n:

Playing the Crows game after all. Crows +9.5. 2x.

No idea what is up with the line movement in Blues game. That might make me stay away. Don't know how you can take Port...

[Gee]

Miserable weekend.

Ended up playing Blues TT o/96 (posted on spreadsheet before gametime, but not here). Salvaged an ordinary weekend (to some extent...)

[Lookingtostart]

What does anyone think of Suns chances in the up coming weekend? Centrebet have them @ $3.45

[benrama]

Lookingtostart, I think they have a shot here, I don't rate North Melbourne much better than Brisane away from home, and they beat the Lions. I am likely taking them on the spread to be safe. To keep it as close as they did against the Eagles in Suby was impressive, plenty of teams would have been blown out by 40+ in that spot, including probably 6 or so teams currently placed above the Suns. Now, having said that, they could get still quite conceivably get blown out by 50, so I would not suggest a big bet, but I personally think there's some value there.

[Lookingtostart]

I have similar feelings about that game, the only thing that worries me is that Suns played in Perth last week. I always wondered about the Perth factor

[Gee]

The Suns aren't bad value. I am struggling to cap them, as I have no idea where they are at this season, so probably won't be playing many more games involving them this year. If anything, the over is a good bet - they have been over machines this year (and North also play a very direct style of game too).

For those looking at playing the Pies at a generous -34.5 vs Melb, don't forget:

1. Some huge outs - Swan (going to Arizona), Beams (injured) and Thomas (suspended) amongst some of their other stars they have out. Thomas has arugably been their best this season with the other two crucial as well; and
2. Melb have a decent record on for Queens Birthday games and drew there against all the odds last season;

I'll just be watching this one.

[Gee]

Taking Saints -11.5 for 2x tonight.

Some strange line movement around this game and I've struggled with the Saints all year, but I think they have come good. Discounting the pies game. We'll see how we go