Yes.
I think Im going to add a unit to crows. really like the play...
I think Im going to add a unit to crows. really like the play...
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u sure the over is a good play here at 195.5?Comment -
yeah well, watching the 1Q the line looks sharp.
they've both had chances to score more, but yeah, its probably buried.
eagles are looking good at least
i should stick to sides. i suck at totals.
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Huge 67 point 2nd quarter. Well and truly back in business.
Go Eagles and goals!!Comment -
Eagles are playing unbelievably well, they should be ahead by at least 5 goals, maybe even more. Can't believe you can still get them at 1.95 live betting. I'm hedging out of my bet on the Essendon / St George parlay, and will hope if Essendon come back and win that the Saints don't let me down and I lose 2X.
I'm totally off my game this weekend in betting AFL, taking a break till next weekend. BOL boys.
Over is looking solid Gee.
Edited to add: and as soon as I've hedged the Eagles are now getting smashed. Fk me - that makes about 10 hedges in a row that turned out to be unnecessary.Last edited by benrama; 05-08-11, 12:30 AM.Comment -
edit:
wow, goal after the siren to go over.
cash over, cash eagles.
fail on crows :/
Reasonable end to the weekend.Comment -
Nice to see things turn around for you Gee
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Wow that last goal was gold.
What are you thinking for tomorrow Gee?Comment -
I don't really know about tomorrow yet, if at all.
Saints have been terrible this year, but part of me keeps thinking they have to show up soon. Man for man, they are not a bad side... A total is also tough to cap, because you're still capping whether or not the Saints show up.
I'm unlikely to play this one, as hard as it will be to leave alone. Maybe Blues TT over or Blues -15.5 will be the play - action junkie
Love it when I can come home to footy on a Monday night.
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Can't believe I have pulled the trigger.
Blues -15.5 (2.5x @ 2.00). No reason other than history to take the Saints. Two teams going in opposite directions right now.Comment -
Wow! You got a good number there Gee @ ev. Good luck I'm on it too!Comment -
I'm a Saints supporter and watch all the games. This team has no confidence and I wouldn't back them to beat anyone but Gold Coast, Port Adelaide and North Melbourne right now. Take Dal Santo away and they are playing like a bunch of scrubs.
Carlton beat them by 60 at Etihad this time last year, and they have close to a full strength side. Judd will be a monster in this game.
I see Carlton winning by 30 points or more, which, given my tipping form this weekend means St Kilda are a sure thing.
I'm taking the safe road and going a Carlton/Manly parlay for the night.
BOL all!
Edited to add: if I was to add one point as devils advocate against Carlton it would be that Saints have a brutal schedule coming up, with Hawthorn, Melbourne, Fremantle, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, Geelong. This game would be viewed as a season changing type of game, otherwise it's a distinct possibility they could be lodged in the bottom 4 after Round 12.Last edited by benrama; 05-08-11, 11:39 PM.Comment -
thinking about taking the st kilda actually..im getting a crap number though so i dont no probally a no playComment -
What number can you get?
i've upped this to a 5x bet
every angle is good.
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I'm on Carlton as well Gee. St Kilda is a sorry team this season. My little Blue Boys will get it done for us tonight
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Let's hope the blues don't switch off early with the bye next week. Hopefully they don't leave anything out on the field, and they pump the saints.
LETS GO BLUE BOYS!!!!!!!Comment -
Nope.
Looks like the Saints have come out to play today.
Not liking this :/Comment -
Things looking a lot better now.
I forgot that I had a unit on Blues TT o/98 for 1x this morning. At least if game loses, that should hit. Small mercy.
Going to be sweating out this 2nd half on my biggest bet of the season.Comment -
completely and utterly buried -6 units on the game
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Tough one, Carlton looked to cover comfortably early in the 3rd but St Kilda came back from the dead.
In a rush of blood before the game I made a HUGE parlay on Carlton/Manly to cover a large bet I lost on Nadal/Djokovic - stupid stuff that I keep telling myself to stop doing now I've built up a big bankroll - bankroll management and all that. Was a gut wrenching sweat at the end there. Not doing that again, ever - till next time :P
You made the right bets, it's like Poker, just cause you get your money in good doesn't mean the deck can't run cold.
Onto next week ...Comment -
Looking forward to the Cats Pies game. 17.5 points start to the cats is a gift, isn't it? Am I missing something?Comment -
Hard to gauge Geelong this year - they haven't really played anyone decent at home since round 1 when they just scraped past St Kilda (who, arguably should not longer be called "decent"
).
Keep in mind this is about the same points Collingwood were given in the first Grand Final last year, and is as low as they have been since.
I'll have to give this some more thought and research, but I'm leaning the Pies.Comment -
well that's kinda what you get when you are currently undefeated in the afl season and have not looked like losing. even though collingwood were trailing the bulldogs by a few points in the 4th quarter they still manage to win by 40+...
this is probably the only team that can really pose a threat to Collingwood. If Collingwood beat Geelong, then I think Collingwood finish the home & away season undefeated unless they start resting players during the backend of the season.
having said that i think there is a hair of value in the 17.5 point start but this is a hard one.Comment -
everyone on every forum all over carlton.....that wasnt good for you guysComment -
Its not the way it works in AFL all the time Birdy...
Carlton kick straight, they cover. 11.18... un ******* believable. Saints missed their chances too, but Carlton had a lot more.
Lucky MLB has been saving me...Comment -
Agree with birdman that usually everyone on the forum on the same side means burial, but Carlton were at least the 2-3 goal better side last night. The oddsmakers had the line pretty much spot on.Comment -
Carlton hurt me as well, 5 units worth... Was looking good at half time.Comment -
Yeah, i saw your thread... it sucks dude. The less commented on that game the better.
Not only did Carlton's ineptness in front of goal cost you their cover, but it also cost you your over. I would have been livid. It also hurts that at both halftime and 3qtr time I had chances to buy it all back for a middle opportunity - literally had it plugged in, but decided to ride it out. Dumb decision at 3qtr time. Saints were storming back into it.
oh well, shit happens.
I think I'm just going to flat bet from now on. Calculating my edge is too hard (and sport is very fickle). We all (many on these forums) think we can, but its hard enough hitting your 55% winners, then trying to cap which of those winners are likely to win easier than others.
ps. I haven't run all my numbers yet and looked closely - licking my wounds from Monday, but I like your North play at first glance. Line has also shifted to 1.5(!!!) which is a great sign for you. Nice play. I'll have something on it probably. Good luck!Comment -
Haha Gee, love your new avatar bro..Comment -
Yep, as soon as I heard the news of Jamar out I jumped on. He is so important to the Demons midfield as he has a really high hitout % to advantage, but all their back up ruckman are injured too and they will be playing god knows who in the ruck... Probably have to upgrade a rookie (Newton). Bailey showed signs of weakness in his press conference too, stating something along the lines they will continued to be maligned in the media next week and the week after etc. So I really like the play, hence the size of the play. But we all know they still have to win on the day...
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Is Essendon HT -18.5 / FT -35.5 @ even money over the Lions a gift?
I know Bombers burnt everyone on the points last week but this will probably be over after the 1Q.Comment -
Bic: I like it
Initial thoughts are Geelong/Collingwood under if the total is set about 200 (which I think is a good chance). A profitable angle over the last few years has been to fade the 'shootout' angle. When two high powered offences meet (both reasonable defences), you often see it being a lot more low scoring than you'd expect. Both teams will know they need to stop the other to win. Don't think I will take a side in that game. I'd take Geelong, but I don't trust Collingwood not to kick 3 in the last 2 mins to cover
Essendon is a play too. Eagles are a much better side than people give them credit for - i was on them last week. Brisbane are terrible - one angle I don't like is the team off a loss to Gold Coast angle. Brisbane have been competitive all year and books are banking that this stings them into action. I think they are competitive again, but Essendon ultimately blow them away.
I'll also probably be on the crows - should bully gold coast.
Saints too - they showed me enough last week to give them a go...Comment -
i don't think bombers will be keen to expend alot of energy and smash brisbane. they were looking tired again last week and didn't finish the game off.
conversely brisbane are likely hurting after last week and could come out fired up. they have had a very soft draw but have only lost one game by 5 goals+.
essendon could easily smash them but personally dont see it as a great bet.
i like GC plus the points. IMO there main weakness is they are not very good at matching up defensively, especially after a turnover. teams with speed and skill take advantage of this easily and smash them ie essendon. whereas as with the poor teams the advantage they have here is offset by GCs higher skill level ie port and brisbane.
adelaide look in a spot to bounce back, however my feeling is line is way to high. GC will be up in confidence plus have a 100% record at the ground to defend.
whatdya think?Comment -
Adelaide over Gold Coast I think, too dangerous across the half forward line for Gold Coast to cover.
I actually like Brisbane over Essendon.... Brisbane very rarely get beaten by a lot at the GABBA and Essendon has a poor record over there... All the value points at Brisbane IMO....
Liking Fremantle over West Coast myself, think they are too strong in the derby.
I highly doubt the total will be set that high, but if it is, I agree with you, will be all over the under! Not to mention the affect the current weather in Melbourne will play... Likely total will be in the 170/180sComment -
Yeah, don't know what the weather will be like tomorrow. Had not factored that in. I was more just assuming that the weather will be fine.... should never do that with Melbourne.
I've seen some bizarre high totals over the last few years between the powerhouse teams, but yeah, you're probably right. In any event, the totals in that type of game are always inflated, so take the under
Unlikely that i'll bet my home derby (WCE/Freo). A lot of random things can happen in those games...Comment
