AFL opening spreads

[Gee]

Just don't bet as hardcore mainly to the fact don't have as much $$ throw around. Just some weekends when I am bored I have a punt. Study took 6 months off for some reason..Hows thing going, seems like your red hot in your tips ? Parramatta allowed me not to sweat at all.

I'm surprised you haven't made a come back just to have some extra $ from afl winnings. Things are going well over here. afl has been very kind to me this season.

maroona: for sure, I've said for a while that the Eagles are the real deal (I posted this somewhere back. Maybe when I took them vs Harthown in Tassie in r4. We are a nation of very poor gamblers; I wouldn't be surprised if many take the bait each week. I still can't believe the bookies send me an email telling me who they are on

Aunty Jack: Good for you. Gotta make sacrifices at the right times I'd just tail those good cappers and pay for the lessons with that!

ben: Yeah, the scary thing about the pies is the ability to score quickly. I'm not going to be against them to cover this season i don't think. Did you see that last quarter vs the crows? Crows were smashing them the whole game, then Collingwood kicked about 10 in 15 minutes. They were up 44 with 57 seconds to go. i have -49.5, which i'd all but given up on. Didn't quite get there, but nothing is safe with them. I'm not going to be on pies this week though. Eagles are the real deal, so good luck Pies have been excellent in 1Hs this season - not the last 2 weeks, but they have dominated. 3rd quarter has been their weakest after a big first half. Maybe hedge/middle WCE at 3qtr time.

As for Freo, I agree. I thought the Saints were back after that game vs Carlton. Nope. Now I just don't really wanna get involved with them. Freo should win and cover though. Same story for the Crows - another team I'm not getting involved with for a while. Even if they are the plays, I doubt I'll take them. Obviously as lines move and I look into things more, that could change.

[donkson]

Line for the Cats looks way too low to me, they'll want to show GAJ what he's missing.

The Richmond game is in Darwin so I wouldn't be as confident on the Tigers up there, even though it is Port I guess.

[Gee]

Putting GA to one side, the Cats are just in another class physically and skill wise. It will be a mauling IMO.

Yeah, hence the 1x bet on Rich... again, its another stylistic match up, where i think Richmond's personnel and game plan will just be too much for Port. Darwin just means its at a neutral venue for me...

BEN: SANDILANDS OUT. don't bet Freo without sandilands. no play now - i don't care what happens with the line or St Kilda injuries...

[amac38]

It seems like a simple round to pick, i don't think you can go wrong picking the favourites, none of the dogs seem to be able to get up other than Saints over Dockers. Dockers don't have Sandilands but I think they'll still play really well in front of their fans.

What do you think Gee?

[benrama]

BEN: SANDILANDS OUT. don't bet Freo without sandilands. no play now - i don't care what happens with the line or St Kilda injuries...

Thanks mate, that's huge. Decided to wait till later in the week to see teams and glad I did. Sandilands is such a advantage for Fremantle at the ruck - I think I'll be staying away from this game too.

I only caught highlights of the Crows game and was following score updates on my phone. I saw them do the same thing against the Bulldogs, just flipped a switch and 10 minutes later there's 6 goals and it's all over. Well aware of what the Pies can do.

Here's my thinking though:

- Collingwood has Jolly out and Eagles ruck is in top quality form
- Eagles have dominated contested possessions this year and Pies are still without core defenders: Toovey, Brown, etc
- Consequently Eagles will be getting a lot of kicks into the 50 where the Eagles Big 3 will give Pies a lot of trouble
- Pies are struggling to put together 4 solid quarters whereas Eagles are playing hard every quarter I've seen them play

Now, I'll grant that the game could be within a goal or two and the Pies put on the last 5 goals and run away with it, but for me I think the Eagles are still being undervalued here. This side is GOOD, damn good. I mean, they destroyed Fremantle and the Bulldogs and those teams are not terrible.

[Gee]

I can't disagree with anything you've said there Ben.

The only times the Eagles have looked lost for an extended period this year (that i have watched) is vs Hawks, before Hawks took their foot off the accelerator. Other than that, they have been great this year. I've been saying that for a while now... I would have won easy 10 units backing them this season.

If there isn't a patch where the pies kick 5 goals in 5 minutes, the Eagles will cover. That patch has happened in every game this season (except vs Geelong). I'll be cheering for the Eagles, but prob won't be betting that game. I just don't think you ever have a great edge when you are up against a side that can do what the pies do.

In these sorts of games, where Pies really should win, but (according to your capping), may not cover... i'd think about putting 50% on +35.5 and 50% on 1-39.

[benrama]

Like you, I've followed this Eagles team for a while, since the NAB. Even in that - and I know people say that means nothing - I thought watching them they had a good chance this year to compete. They fully stretched Collingwood in the NAB semi, and that was with both teams fielding a good strength side. That was Suby and pre-season but I don't believe that counts for nothing. Premiership so far seems to back that up.

Agree with you that Hawks game was a clear example of them losing their way for a period of time. Also thought they did so a little in the 2nd half against Fremantle. Same with the Essendon game where they were ahead at half time. After the 1H results of Collingwood the last two weeks it's what initially had me leaning towards a 1H bet, but you never can know when that burst from the Pies is going to come and no reason it can't happen out of the floodgates.

What the recent games have shown though (Bulldogs, Cats, Crows) is that Collingwood isn't invincible and teams will know they have a good chance against them with their currently depleted personnel and some key players out of form (e.g. Didak). What I like about the Eagles is that they can also put on a goals burst due to their ruck and full forward dominance. I think Cox will be a beast in this game, and Nit Nat will be all over it as well.

That said, I'm not getting too confident about the play and the Pies still have a classy midfield that can take the game away. I like the Eagles to cover this one 2 times out of 3 however.

With the +35.5 and 1-39, this gets me at 1.20 for the game which is better than the ML, is that what you were thinking? Good idea for parlaying favourites when you think the game might be tight.

Edited to add: just noticed the Eagles spread is down now to +32.5

[donkson]

One bet I'm liking is the Eagles to win the first qtr @3.05.

1Q results can be pretty random, and the game should have a tight start.

[Alt75]

Anyone on Geelong to win big sportsbet has Cats -99.5 pyol for $5.60, where as their -99.5 100+ supermargin is paying $5.

Centrebet are only paying $4 for -98.5 / $4.20 for -100.5

[Lookingtostart]

One bet I'm liking is the Eagles to win the first qtr @3.05.

1Q results can be pretty random, and the game should have a tight start.

Eagles have started well in games this season, they're fairly good off the block.

[Lookingtostart]

Anyone on Geelong to win big sportsbet has Cats -99.5 pyol for $5.60, where as their -99.5 100+ supermargin is paying $5.

Centrebet are only paying $4 for -98.5 / $4.20 for -100.5

I have noticed some anomalies from sportsbet too, at least that's what I think they are

From the same game and time:

The numbers just don't add up, this means there's no reason to bet on 1st scoring play as there's more value in 1st team to score?

[Gee]

Yeah, all books make errors. Especially those that offer a lot of markets and prop bets. Don't worry, you are still paying plenty of vig at Aussie books.

I assume its just how they calculate each type of market. Its also the attraction of getting a good pay out by taking one of Geelong's 1st scoring plays vs 1st team to score. Its just to entice the clowns. If you look at the vig, they are taking nearly 11% on 1st scoring play and 7% on 1st team to score. Thats telling too. (Also, despite the vastly different market, there is nothing close to an arb or no vig line up there)

Anyway (and someone correct me if this is wrong), 1st team to score is about 7% better value than on 1st scoring play, so get on that if anything. These props are sucker bets IMO anyway.

As for Alt's example, that makes less sense. I think both PYOL and those super margin bets are pretty juiced anyway.

[Alt75]

Usually the odds for pyol are less than the odds for the predefined points/spread, -15.5 - 24.5, 39.5 it's usually within a few cents though, 60 cents is one of the biggest differences I've seen. With the difference between centrebet and sportsbet pyol I'd figure sportsbet fudged the scaling of their pyol.

I put that $5.60 pyol in a multi with Lions and Eagles SU, after reading shit about 5dimes here hopefully they don't go "Tony" on me and call me a shot taker

[Gee]

I really doubt that $5.60 vs $5.20 is considered shot taking I don't really trust any of those markets though and can't be bothered doing the math on them.

Good luck with the play.

As for me this weekend, I've already locked in Richmond -30.5 (got a bad number) for 1x and Geelong -64.5 for 2x.

I have also just put in Carlton -29.5 for 1x. Purely a numbers play here. I don't like that Carlton hasn't really been putting sides away, but gotta run with the numbers on this one.

Good luck this weekend everyone.

[Alt75]

I was just being sarcastic/silly and having a dig at 5 dimes/offshore books
I know they aren't going to consider it shot taking with that minor discrepancy, especially over $1 on a 114/1 multi.

Cheers. Each top 4 side the Suns have played they've been demolished and I have a feeling Collingwood might be in for shock. Brisbane with Brown back and McGrath back this week, it's not beyond the realm of possibility each leg will come good so it's worth a punt imo.

Despite Melbourne's injury woes I'm a little iffy on Carlton covering 30 odd points too. I'm leaning 1-39.

Richmond should be good for it, they have the structure and forward line to really hurt Port if they only show up in bursts after poor Matty Primus yells at em between breaks.

edit: sportsbet have the o/u set at 185.5, both sides averaging around 13 goals a game. Carlton on average conceding 11 and Melbourne 13. Carlton 2nd ranked tackling side I figure this is going to be one of those games with lots of stoppages and not much flow/free scoring. If so it would be at Carlton's end.

Forecast is Max 15 Shower or two. Cloudy. Scattered showers in eastern and southern suburbs, isolated elsewhere. Winds west to southwesterly averaging up to 25 km/h.

That Collingwood v Geelong game the winds were around 30km/h and we saw how that affected scoring from outside 35 metres. It's not going to be ideal conditions, may not be very wet but a few showers and Carltons tackling game this should very well go under.

[Gee]

Completely agree with you there Alt Totals weren't up anywhere (not even bet365!!) when I posted my plays earlier.

1x on u/185.5. Alt has done the write up For all their run and pace, the Blues just aren't really a high scoring team. Melb obviously aren't either...

[Alt75]

Nice to see I'm in good company
Last time my thinking went against the grain on the total going over on a dreary windy Friday night at the G it cost Shari a unit and I didn't even play the total

After I posted I noticed they came up on sportsbet. I've been sussing out Centrebet again was thinking of cashing in some there too, I see they offer multiple totals! Noticed MMA is covered better than it was in the past, method of victory odds suck compared to sportsbet though. Was thinking a pick your own total would be a sweet feature for AFL on Aus books. Also wish an Aus book put up winner/line & total doubles for AFL like sportingbet do with NRL/NBA. Probably a bit of a squares bet but I do ok with em, especially NRL.

Anyway half drunk ramblings aside, all things considered, that under does look pretty enticing I might unleash my money bags and toss a tenner on the under.

[rjc]

this seems a bit funky to me. in the punting section of the paper down here in Melbourne. It reads " we have taken $10 on Sydney at $1.72 for every $1 on North Melbourne at $2.05, so it has clearly been all one-way traffic. Punters wanting to take the $1.72 on Sydney better act fast," Davies said. (tab)
Now for all those who didn't see the opening line, it was +6.5 to North and it is now +3.5 despite 10 fold the money on Sydney , WTF ?
Does that mean, North is the right bet here? Considering the bookie has told us to run down and grab Sydney asap? Or is Sydney the bet and their just making North look like the bet with that movement?
Thoughts

[Gee]

Cash both under and Blues. Great start to the weekend

rjc: It means North is the play, but if you aren't comfortable, then don't take it. I'm not taking the square side in this spot. I can't stomach North, so no play here for me.

Alt: i've used almost every Aus book and sportsbet is the worst of them. centrebet, sportingbet, readbet and betfair are much better IMO. The ultimate book for you sounds like bet365. Action on everything. Ridiculous amount of markets and live betting online. Especially if you are only betting low stakes.

[rjc]

[rjc]

Good calls tonight Gee!
Thanks for the insight on the north game, it screams no play, but in a round of shorties I kept an eye on it because of the close odds. I'll sleep on it, but I'm leaning north.

[Alt75]

I don't have any allegiance to any book I just look for the best odds for the markets I'm into. When I last I bet on AFL regularly was when Lions won their 3 (03 Lions to cover was basically free money) and that was at the TAB. I chose all my online Aus books based on MMA and have just started betting on AFL and NRL week to week this season as well NBA and whatever else as you know, being an Aussie and action junkie if they offer it we'll bet on it I originally signed up on betonfighting through a mma stream site and they had like a $40 cashout fee so I looked up Aus books for UFC betting and sportsbet was the best I found.

Sportsbet to my knowledge were offering the best markets on MMA from about 06 or so. Sportingbet are good in that they cover Japanese MMA like Dream and the K-1 GP as well as Bellator and other random cards. What I really want is a book that allows non-correlated parlays like how the sbr book works so I can parlay MMA method of victories and rounds for one. Pinnacle seems like the best to go pro on here though.

[kingsr]

Ok iM OFFICIALLY CONFUSED AS FUK with the swans v nm game!?!?! Swans started at 1.70 and theres been heavy money on NM...WHY????? How ANYONE can bet on NM is beyond me! Is this market manipulation?!?!?!?!?!

[benrama]

Good call on the Blues game fellas.

re: Aussie books, I've used Sportsbet and Centrebet, and haven't found much difference between them. Interested to hear Gee why you think they are the worst? I far and away prefer the Sportsbet interface to Centrebet, I prefer it even to Pinnacles by and large.

I only use my Aussie books for Aussie sports, and even then I find Pinnacle gives better odds. You just don't get any of the PYOL and other betting options on Pinnacle. This is not necessarily a bad thing

I find generally the other betting options are sucker bets, apart from PYOL, which if you carefully choose your spots I think can be quite profitable, particularly later in the season when the lines get tighter.

As for this Swans game, it does have trap written all over it. Pinnacle now has the Swans at -111 (~$1.90), so much for needing to jump on the Swans quick

I personally don't think AFL is rigged at all, in fact I think it's probably one of the least rigged sports you can bet on. So there must be some angle here that we are all missing.

If I had to play the game, I'd be parlaying the 1-39 on both sides (giving you $1.50 type odds) with another play e.g. Richmond or Knights on the ML.

[binomial]

after scams i would second that sportbet are the worst. in my experience there is no basis to describing them as a sportsbook. they are just looking for people who don't know what they are doing to loot.

[Gee]

Lol. Spot on about sports bet.

Going to take the over in the sydney game. 1.5x.

[Ben Franklin]

Like the over play in the swans game. I'll be on it as well. GL

[GAMBLOR777]

after scams i would second that sportbet are the worst. in my experience there is no basis to describing them as a sportsbook. they are just looking for people who don't know what they are doing to loot.

I've had no problems with Sportsbet.
I also use Pinnacle and Centrebet and Sportsbet has the best interface and customer service by far.
Withdrawal is also quick and hassle-free.

so I don't understand the hate for them.

[Gee]

Over looks shot. Stupid play

Sportsbet isn't THAT bad. I don't actually like the interface or the markets or the lines. Thats all you really look for in an Aus book - you know the withdrawals and accounts side is going to be easy.

[Alt75]

haha each to their own, as long as there's no dodgy business with payouts or cancelling bets I guess with Aus books it comes down to preferences with site layout and markets. Ultimately I just want to make money from all of em I have funds in.

I actually like sportsbet site the best too, main reason being it's "compatible" with the stylish add-on for firefox/chrome. I can have my preferred non retina burning black background with light grey text theme.

Although the calculator is better on sportingbet I like how you can lay singles and multiples all in one go and it creates trixies/patents etc. Titanbet's calculator is the best IMO but the odds on their lines suck on Aussie sports, don't offer exotics on MMA, usually only the fights on a UFC/Strikeforce main card.

I'm trying to build my sportingbet balance up so I mostly play the AFL/NRL/NBA lines there unless sportsbet offer the same line for $2.10 or better odds on a margin. The flash crap on sportingbet is just bloaty and the java menu is annoying, it's ok once you're on one of the pages for a given sport and can use the dropbox menu.

BL on that total. My 2 bets so far today aren't looking too good. Especially Freo

[Gee]

Fail on the over.

I'm going to add another unit to Geelong -63.5.

Also adding Geelong/Gold Coast o/199.5 for 2x.

[TwoWays]

Wow, what a second half the Cats. Saved your night, Gee Stevie J.!!!!!!!!!!!

[donkson]

Was going to take Port all week, decided not to today. Kicking myself.

Can't complain though with Geelong barely covering the line, I'll take that.

Under is home already you'd think.

[Gee]

Wow, what a second half the Cats. Saved your night, Gee Stevie J.!!!!!!!!!!!

Sure did I'll take it.


Need to crash. Prob not much tomorrow. Totals when they come out if anything - sides are too tough.

[Bazz27]

Nice later 50mt by the cats rookie to cover that -63.5