It has been raining here in Melbourne alot, I don't think the total will be that high. But I could be wrong.
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I would have figured the bookies would have capped Essendon around -45.5 to - 50.5 or so but I guess the pessimistic Lions supporter is coming out again, it's down to 34.5 this arvo. True they haven't been blown out but the side that have beaten Essendon in the past is simply no longer there, they can't rely on Power & Black. To boot Essendon is a different animal to last year. If they couldn't lift to beat the Suns after talking it up I'm really not liking their chances to come good against a top 4 side. If they had Brown, maybe I'd entertain the idea of an upset/covering the +
Ergo, go all in on Lions.
I like the Cats to upset the Pies tomorrow night bloody Geelong ML down from $3.10 to $2.65 on sportingbet.Comment -
Yeah.
I've been busy this week and not really looking over games as early as I often do. Really dropped the ball on quite a few spreads:
North obviously in from 5.5 to evens, Cats from 17.5 to 13.5, Saints from 21.5 to 19.5 and dropping (I've taken 1x at 19.5).
Huge move towards the Cats in tonight's game. All signs point to a good contest. I doubt I will be playing it...
edit: yup, you guys were right on tonight's total: 176.5. Probably about right.
if anyone wants geelong tonight, William Hill still has them at 17.5. I don't have an account there - lol @ -120 lines on AFL. Still worth it for tonights game if you have it.Comment -
In the dry and at full strength I would have picked Collingwood to win by 30+, but with Jolly, Maxwell, Baccs, etc, out for the Pies and the likely chance of it being a wet game that makes it much more like an even contest. I think the odds makers have this one pretty spot on.
Best bet of the weekend for me is:
Adelaide/Essendon/Storm/Crusaders, paying about 1.90Comment -
going with collingwood tonight..good luck yall!Comment -
Total is currently at 166.5 at centrebet this scares me. It's very low. How bad is the weather?Comment -
lol, yup.
should have taken under at bet365 this morning. gone now.
What is everyone on tonight??Comment -
I live in Melbourne, it has been raining all day... I think the total is where it should be, but I really like the under. Only problem is I think Collingwoods defense is a little undermanned if Maxwell misses. I think I will play it for a unit.Comment -
Yeah it's been wet for days in Melbourne, gonna be a cold and windy night I'm just 15-20 mins away from town/G it'd eased up the past hour and has started again, not going to be ideal footy conditions but doubt it will be raining constantly tonight. I'm no weather girl though.
Total is at 165.5 @ 1.88 on sportsbet, still not up on sportingbet. Seems a bit low unless it's gonna be assured to be raining the majority of the game.Cloudy. Scattered showers with possible hail over southeastern suburbs late afternoon and evening. Winds westerly averaging up to 30 km/h tending southwesterly 25 to 40 km/h during the afternoon.Comment -
So many reasons to stay away from playing a side or total tonight....
So much craving for action :/
I've played NRL: Dragons/Broncos ML parlay at +132.
Line is moving slowly back to Pies. By gametime, we should be back to about 14.5. If I'm not here to post, I will have played it at that price in some way.
I may even take 1H and see what happens there. I seem to have been very lucky with the 5 goals in 5 min burst by the pies the last few weeks to cover. Now I'm against them.
They are really blowing teams away late...
They have, however, only won one 3rd quarter this season... will almost certainly be taking Cats 3rd qtr if they are behind.Comment -
Sportingbet o/u is 164.5. That's too sharp for me. I really want to make a play on this match as it's broadcast live but I can't figure out anything to take. Best of luck guys for those of you with bets on this one!
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Was just outside, rain has subsided for another hour and half or so, cloud cover has cleared over the inner north and moved towards the south eastern burbs as BOM predicted earlier, bit hard to see/judge if it's directly over town or has moved past, it doesn't look like dark storm clouds over town and it wasn't raining with the live crosses to the MCG on ten news now, the weather dude said the showers will mostly be over the eastern burbs, radar image indicated only possible scattered showers over Melbourne CBD - MCG, although the BOM forecast has been updated and doesn't specify only the south eastern suburbs for scattered showers/hail tonight.
Geelong are used to these conditions from home, I can see them kicking 10-12 goals unless it starts belting down, outside of torrential down pour I think the only way the under hits is if Collingwood are flat after the bye and only kick 5 or 6 or turn it into a slow slogfest with high tackle/stoppage count. The lowest Collingwood have scored this season is 102 and since the first round where Geelong only scored 48 they have kicked between 11-18 goals a game.Comment -
Yeah, I'm in the northwest near-ish to the airport and it's not raining here. So if more is to come and it's going to head in the direction of the south-eastern burbs, you'd think we'd get it over here first.
Screw it. I took the over for a unit. Watch it start to piss down sheets of rain in the next 30 minutes.
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******* action junkie
Me too.
Betting on the weather
Good luck. I saw a 180ish game before I saw the weather. Could be a slog.
Check out the pies 3qtr stats (on my phone, will post soon). Very strange deviation.Comment -
Yeah with my analytical/prophetic powers the MCG will probably get hit with a typhoon and they'll score a handful of points each.Yeah, I'm in the northwest near-ish to the airport and it's not raining here. So if more is to come and it's going to head in the direction of the south-eastern burbs, you'd think we'd get it over here first.
Screw it. I took the over for a unit. Watch it start to piss down sheets of rain in the next 30 minutes.
haha broady chick?
I figured you were a Yank for some reason.
Best of luck everyone
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NO I AM NOT A BROADY CHICK. If I could give you an infraction for that, I would
You were kind of right with your initial assumption: I have American citizenship but I was born in Canada. Moved here a few years ago from Europe and am leaving in the next few months.
Again - I DO NOT LIVE IN BROADY. OK???
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haha I was more worried about offending an Aussie for thinking they're a Yank, hilarious that a foreigner is aware of the shame of being a "broady chick" or residing in that burb. I didn't think it would set off caps rageNO I AM NOT A BROADY CHICK. If I could give you an infraction for that, I would
You were kind of right with your initial assumption: I have American citizenship but I was born in Canada. Moved here a few years ago from Europe and am leaving in the next few months.
Again - I DO NOT LIVE IN BROADY. OK???
Ok I got it
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So, yeah i know its late. I was on my phone. ended up taking these bets just before gametime. Kinda glad I didn't post them, because these were really action junkie bets and that is usually a bad tail (if anyone even tails AFL in here - it seems everyone has good and strong opinions anyway. good subforum).
u/82.5 first half and Geelong +13.5 for 1x each. Under looks OK, but Geelong could have kicked 5 goals. Geelong looked good... but so did the bulldogs until 5 mins to go two weeks ago.
Look at these 3qtr stats for collingwood. amazing. maybe worth hitting that angle if they are ahead. its not a trend that will last and knowing gamblers luck, it'll turn today :/
2011 Quarter Stats
Quarter W D L For Against %
1st 4 0 2 28.18 (186)13.13 (91) 204.40
2nd 5 0 1 27.21 (183)10.21 (81) 225.93
3rd 1 1 4 22.17 (149)25.13 (163) 91.41
4th 6 0 0 38.27 (255)14.15 (99) 257.58
Total1617115.83 (773)62.62 (434)178.11Comment -
Going to have half a unit on geelong ml and spread for the 3rd quarter. wish me luck
1H under cashes
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Good job on the 1H. I'm not touching the 2H. This match has pissed me off already with all of these bloody behinds and what's-his-face missing everything completely right before the half. Good for you but shithouse for me.
I'm turning Jamie Oliver's Food Revolution on instead.
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Ugh, yeah, ugly game for the over Shari Podsiadly with the ugly miss. It makes for a more interesting season. Geelong are back.
Yay. cash everything. 1H under, 3qtr and game.
time to start thinking about tomorrow.Comment -
That's what she gets for paying attention to my post
Whenever I pick out a trend or make a call based off stats/averages the opposite happens.
Although it wasn't the rain it was the wind, Cats not kicking straight and general sloppy play that led to under hitting 38 odd points shy of the total and both teams scoring well below their average for the season.
Well done Gee, nice call on that 3H ML. Cats kicked 5.2 to Pies 2.3Comment -
Nice call RJC.
Not going to touch Melb/North. North has now gone to -2.5 after opening at +5.5 Big outs for Melb, but I would still actually lean toward them. Not going to bet against such a huge move though, especially when (after last week) Melb should be inflated and North not...
Crows -37.5 for 2x was already locked in. They will be too good vs a young side in a let down spot. Statement game for the Crows too after being embarrased last week. edit; 2x more on this. 4x total. so much for flat betting
Bombers -32.5 too. Not a great line, but was already locked in. A lot of factors against this; probably a square pick. Just 1x on this.
Saints +21.5 for 2x.
parlay over 200.5 in Crows and Melb games too for 0.5x. Action pick really; not confident enough to take either singly.Comment -
Cash the Crows and the parlayed over. +5.3 units on the games. +8.3 units on AFL for the weekend
2x on Sydney -36.5. No time for a write up. Gotta go out.
Already have essendon -32.5 for 1x, but look screwed... down to 28.5 now :/Comment -
Don't think I've won on a Suns game this season, ARGHH. Hopefully the rest of my plays will work out.Comment -
Nice 7-0 weekend on AFL so far: +11.3 units.
Already played Saints and got a bit on ML too.
Playing these for 1 unit each: over 193.5 in North/Bulldogs, under 173.5 in hawks/saints, Eagles ML. may add to eagles ML.Comment -
Gee sportingbet have the total set at 188.5 for the dogs game, wondering why it came down so much, any late changes, saints looking good early..Comment -
Hey Gee nice call with the saints.
Any lean for the medal over there in your derby?Comment -
Saints shat their pants!Comment -
Hey mate. Don't play a lot of props, so no idea. I'm always bad at these ones in particular.
Saints were disappointing after quarter time :/ Still a side you can't write off. Will be hard to figure out how to bet them for the next few weeks.
Cash both totals on the early games though for a small juice loss. Another reason why I should be flat betting.
9-1 this weekend with Eagles pending. Will put up posted updated AFL record after this game. I'll take Eagles again at HT if they are behind.Comment -
nice run there bud, eagles looking like good things too
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Nice call on west coast Gee, your on fire!!!!!Comment -
Solid weekend Gee.Comment -
great calls this weekend, keep it up!
can't wait for next weekend!Comment
