AFL opening spreads

**Gee** · 04-25-11, 05:31 AM

Nice to get the square up straight away - thought the Roos loss was slightly unlucky yesterday. Netball over looking good (see SS) and hopefully freo finishes off a fine evening

**Gee** · 04-25-11, 06:54 AM

Cash Freo 1Q.

It got tight, but it was never really in trouble. Anyones guess to a winner now. Glad I have no more money on this.

Spreadsheet attached for the last two rounds. Have only done it for the last few weeks - lazy before. For the record, the first 3 weeks were equally profitable.

Going to try to remember to post my plays in this thread if I can. Probably time to fade me after the first 5 rounds have been so good - i expect a correction soon.

**hedgejob** · 04-25-11, 08:36 AM

Good stuff Gee. My book doesn't have qtrs otherwise I would have tailed you. Those Freo fukers made me sweat tonight, I unloaded half my bankroll on the ML and they were up by 20 in the last then they fell behind by 7 and I thought that's it. Two very close shaves for me today.

**maroona** · 04-25-11, 09:14 AM

Both teams tonight were terrible, that 3rd quarter was painful to watch, I had Freo ML but thought I was gone so many times, wow mate you got balls putting half your bankroll on Freo but they got the cash so well done..

**Gee** · 04-25-11, 11:02 PM

It was a good game.

Could have gone either way. Happy to have cashed by qtr time.

I like Geelong today, but going to stay away. o/179.5 for me. 3x.

**borgsta** · 04-25-11, 11:34 PM

Originally posted by Gee

I didn't know about this option. I will be using it from now on.

Oh and very nice start to the year.

**rjc** · 04-26-11, 01:39 AM

Nice work G , let's smash these books!!!!!

**aunty jack** · 04-26-11, 02:25 AM

a good call on the over - it sailed past the total.

you're on an impressive streak... a fine way to finish off the super-sized easter/anzac day long week-end.

cheers.

**maroona** · 04-26-11, 04:03 AM

Nice hit on the over Gee, I was on it as well, was expecting around 190 so very surprised when it opened at 179.5, books way off on this one, footy back in 2 days

**Gee** · 04-26-11, 08:29 AM

nice hit maroona and anyone else on the over and geelong.

Maroona: it opened at 178.5. by the time i checked some stats and weather it was 179.5. i think it closed at 182.5 at some shops, maybe higher. bookies laid a very soft line here. i only wish i had the balls to go bigger. its just not my style. my general bets are 1x to 3x. i have not been great at calculating my actual edge over the years. just trying to pick winners is tough enough

can't bet against line movement, but i gotta say geelong looked the play all year. books playing tricks with me this week.

Already looking at next week. at first glance eagles and sydney at home look to be plays. it may also be time to jump off the saints fade train too...

**maroona** · 04-26-11, 06:32 PM

Gee do you know if there's a website available similar to the SBRodds site for AFL where you can check opening lines, line movement, betting percentages etc, would be good to have as a reference..

**Gee** · 04-26-11, 07:56 PM

The only one I am aware of to look at lines movement is at oddsportal.com. I don't think there is anywhere that does public percentages, so it is a bit of a guessing game. There just wouldn't be any reason for a bookie to give it out for free and there is no place for that type of service in the australian marketplace (yet).

I generally check lines on the main Aus sites a few times a day and send myself an email with notes, recent news, ins/outs, injuries, tribunal news etc. at least once per day.

**kickserv** · 04-27-11, 05:49 AM

Hey Gee do you only bet on afl mate

**Gee** · 04-27-11, 07:05 AM

Nah. I bet on everything. Theres not much point in me posting my US sports stuff though - there are plenty out there who are a lot sharper and 100x more knowledgeable on the forums. I often just follow the market for that stuff - works pretty well.

AFL is by far and away the most profitable for me though. I don't expect this hot run to continue though. There has to be a regression at some point, just gotta manage that properly when it comes.

**kickserv** · 04-27-11, 02:06 PM

Every hot streak ends sometime. But your spread sheet looks good mate, i bet mostly australian sport aswell. Being from australia i think thats my strong point. Im looking at tonights afl game demon & eagles and i must say i want to see what the total is both teams like to kick goals

**kickserv** · 04-27-11, 02:11 PM

Gee what sports book do you use for australian sports mate

**Gee** · 04-27-11, 05:15 PM

I use centrebet, sportingbet, Bet365, readbet and pinny - depends who is giving me the best line.

Tonight I've got Eagles -6.5 (1x) and -8.5 (1x). Eagles have looked really good this year and Melbourne travel about as well a Guinness. It was the line that stood out to me when it opened at 6.5 and I can see its at 10.5 at some books! From what I can tell, the public are just pounding them though.

I am also going to have a play on Eagles 1Q for 1x - Melb have been slow starters this year (with the exception of the Hawks game, where the Hawks kicked about 10 behinds) and the Eagles have been quite good out of the blocks dominating play. They have only kicked 12.21 in 1Qs this year, so stats are a bit deceiving too.

Hopefully the correction doesn't start today. Don't know about a total in this game. Neither are particularly high scoring teams and the weather over here in perth hasn't been great. Its meant to clear up for the evening though. I'm just going to stick with my side plays I think.

Edit: line movement has a lot to do with LeCras being in. That is absolutely huge for the Eagles, who were already getting all the early money anyway (90% on betfair). They have been dominating lately with their tall forward line, which will give Melb problems, but throw lecras int here and the Demons should have serious match up problems. Eagles also play a high pressure style, which does not suit Melb, who will want to use it in the corridor. On the flipside, Eagles defence is not ideal with some injuries to waters and brown, which will hopefully not cost them too much back there.

Its a sharp line and I don't like anything worse than -8.5.

**borgsta** · 04-27-11, 05:57 PM

Yeah I like the Eagles -6.5 a lot tonight. Have that in a multi with Collingwood 25+ @ 3.02

**Reno Paul** · 04-27-11, 06:25 PM

On the Eagles -7.5....GL all!!!!

**sportscash** · 04-27-11, 09:24 PM

Originally posted by Reno Paul

On the Eagles -7.5....GL all!!!!

I like the Eagles also but i can only get it at -8.5 or -9.5 at Pinny also the Tab has the -7.5 at $1.85 so i might wait a bit and see what happens

**waco66** · 04-27-11, 10:12 PM

So it looks like everyone is on the eagles tonight? I personally believe 8.5 is too much for a team coming off a bye. I see sloppy play from both sides. I am no expert in AFL (or good)...and all but one of my bets have been on collingwood (easy wins). But Melbourne +8.5 looks too good to pass up, if this loses..i will be sticking with magpies all year lol.

Great detail explanation by Gee...but i will be on the otherside due to gut feeling...good luck!

**Gee** · 04-27-11, 10:15 PM

Opening lines on totals make no sense.

Centrebet = 177.5

Sportingbet = 181.5. I think i even saw this at 180.5, before i refreshed, but wasn't really paying attention.

I have played over 177.5 for 2x and under 181.5 for 2x.

I probably shouldn't have even bothered. Chances of middling these fuks on AFL is remote. May make a proper total play closer to game time depending on weather. Looks pretty crappy outside, but this is perth. it rained yesterday and last night - we do not get 2 day of rain in a row this time of yer

**Gee** · 04-27-11, 10:20 PM

Waco: you are probably right

everyone being on the same side spells burial

i agree it may be a sloppy game. If so, that suits west coast.

Btw, both sides are coming off a bye.

**waco66** · 04-27-11, 10:43 PM

Originally posted by Gee

Waco: you are probably right

everyone being on the same side spells burial

i agree it may be a sloppy game. If so, that suits west coast.

Btw, both sides are coming off a bye.

No home team team coming off a bye has won this season I believe (not %100 on this)...and only one away team coming off a bye has won..that was last week with STK at BL.

Trend either continues or ends

**Gee** · 04-27-11, 10:45 PM

so only 1 team coming off a bye has won this year?

someone has to win tonight

**Lookingtostart** · 04-28-11, 02:53 AM

Originally posted by Gee

Melb have been slow starters this year (with the exception of the Hawks game, where the Hawks kicked about 10 behinds) and the Eagles have been quite good out of the blocks dominating play. They have only kicked 12.21 in 1Qs this year, so stats are a bit deceiving too.

In that case, I think it might also be a good idea to bet Eagles to "1st Team to 15 pts".

**Gee** · 04-28-11, 04:54 AM

Originally posted by kickserv

Gee what sports book do you use for australian sports mate

pinny, bet365, sportingbet, centrebet and recently readbet.

Originally posted by kickserv

Every hot streak ends sometime. But your spread sheet looks good mate, i bet mostly australian sport aswell. Being from australia i think thats my strong point. Im looking at tonights afl game demon & eagles and i must say i want to see what the total is both teams like to kick goals

Yeah, i got a bad feeling about tonight for some reason. i hope i'm wrong. streak has to end...

if you like the over, i hope you got on at 177.5 at centrebet. i ended up having 3x there and 2x on under 181.5 at sportingbet. weather is good here, but neither team are big scorers.

lookingtobet: too much of a coinflip at first to 15. a few quick goals can happen too easily. hopefully if u play it, it cashes and eagles never look back.

**Ace_of_Spades** · 04-28-11, 05:15 AM

I liked the over at first blush, but both teams are coming off a bye. That could bad.

**sportscash** · 04-28-11, 06:43 AM

West Coast are looking good at the moment

**biggie12** · 04-28-11, 07:25 AM

GEE YOU ******* PIMP. What a score to wake up to. over 6k now !

**rjc** · 04-28-11, 07:55 AM

Nice call G!

**Gee** · 04-28-11, 09:17 AM

nice for everyone on eagles. well played. eagles pressure was immense.

Should have posted it earlier, but have already locked in Bombers -65.5 (1.5x), Swans -3.5 (1.5x) and Saints +6.5 (1x). These lines are already moving one way and have at most books already. I may buy out or partially try to middle. We'll see after I have a much closer look at everything.

**Gee** · 04-28-11, 06:13 PM

I'm not going to buy out of the Swannies tonight for 1.5x. May add a unit or so to it even. Carlton, like Melbourne and many Victorian teams, travel badly. They have not won at the small SCG since 1993 (despite going 22-3 in 1995

). Contrary to most opinions, I don't see the bye being an issue tonight. Swans have had a grueling start to the season and needed it. The draw angle will only last so long, before it starts working the other way.

I see this as a similar match to last night (and hopefully similar result!) with Carlton, who will want to use the corridor and run, against Sydney's relentless pressure game. Unfortunately, its also a revenge spot for Carlton, after Swans knocked them out last year. I don't know how that works into AFL - never really looked at that angle too closely.

Only one Aus/UK book still hanging 3.5 from what I can see. Still there at US books. Most of the early money has come for Sydney. West Coast, Sydney and Saints games were the three games I said stood out to me this week. All lines have moved towards me. Lets hope they are sharp

edit: Under could be a go too. Forecast is not good for Sydney today or tonight. I'll assess through the day.

**maroona** · 04-28-11, 06:45 PM

Good luck tonight Gee, West Coast looked good last night, looks like they're on the right track, always tough for WA teams though with the constant travel back to the east coast, but they'll be tough to beat at home, agree with you on Sydney tonight, be interesting to see what they set the total at..

**Gee** · 04-28-11, 07:49 PM

there is a fair chance i should have taken it earlier.

Dropped from 174.5 to 158.5 at bet365. It must be pissing down. Has opened at 155.5 on centrebet.

no play on a total here, until i see the rain myself tonight.