AFL opening spreads

[MrXYZ]

I'm thankful for the ban on live betting online, it's saved me $$$

I keep money in at the books as well. Mostly use Centrebet & have never had any problem with payouts or withdrawing funds but it worries me that the Aussie Govt could do an FBI styled raid.

Lately I'm preferring the convenience of a local TAB/Pub.It keeps my money management/decision making level headed when I'm handling actual bills than numbers on a screen. It may sound strange, but I get more satisfaction from cashing a $50 betslip there than much bigger plays online. It's too easy to go huge & my days of sitting there waiting for online approval on a huge bet are over.

Also saw that Essendon is now 1.69. Thought it would've headed the other way.

[Alt75]

Total for tonights game is up on bet365 at 179.5

Pretty much what I expected, although I was hoping for closer to 190. Essendon kicking 115 against the Cats is a concern. I doubt Adelaide put up over 100 like in recent years.

Forecast for Adelaide

Fine and partly cloudy. Cool with light to moderate east to northeast winds.

Adelaide season average TT 67 - Essendon 93.

[Gee]

lol alt @ your bet365 post.

f\*\*k me.

Bombers down to 5.5. I got them at 9.5.

I still like my pick, but the bookies know so much more than me and really annoyed at giving up 4 free points. hope it doesn't cost me

[Alt75]

Does action on the ML move the line or just action on the line itself?

There's no major omissions for Essendon, aside the history at the ground, going on this years form you'd think there's really nothing to warrant a move closer to Adelaide.

[Gee]

I think sharps pound stats like the h2h and ground history. I should have known this when I put in my bet. making me more nervous for the game.

Essendon may also be overvalued. They were good vs a pretty ordinary richmond team and came from nowhere (they were looking terrible before) to beat the cats.

hrm. fortunately, a few points rarely means that much in AFL and I think I still cash

[Alt75]

Yeah I've noticed the AFL/NRL markets often get pounded so hard on titanbet games with short faves are dropped to 1.01 or even market taken down before the games start and there's often peculiar differences compared to books that take a lot more action on Aussie football codes. I've assumed it's probably euro betting syndicates hitting short lines and playing stats, as it's a predominantly Euro book, closed for Yanks and from what I gather not a popular book with Aussie sportbettors or poker players.

Essendon is -4.5 on TB @ $1.90 Adelaide ML has been constantly dropping from $2.30 and is now $2.04 - Bombers $1.77

Yet on Centrebet, Sportsbet, Sportingbet Adelaide is closer to $2.20/$2.30. The ML odds are dropping, line shortening towards Adelaide on all the Euro/offshore books, opposite way on Aus books for the ML and line has stayed 2 - 3 points higher.

http://www.oddsportal.com/

This is much better that sportsportal, can compare all the main books we use, sans sportsbet on there for free.

[donkson]

Seems like a really tough decision now. The past three Friday nights have had these two big line drops;

Essendon against Hawthorn - lost by 10 goals
Geelong against WCE - lost by 8 points

There's most likely not much in that, but it makes me question whether I'm actually going to bet this match now.

[Alt75]

Anyone cashed in on bet365/sportingbet there's a risk free bet possible on MLB

bet365 giants 1.97 - padres 1.93, sportingbet giants 1.87 padres 2.00, bet x amount on giants half on padres

[Lookingtostart]

Has anyone noticed the Judd deal on sportsbet?

[Gee]

Anyone cashed in on bet365/sportingbet there's a risk free bet possible on MLB bet365 giants 1.97 - padres 1.93, sportingbet giants 1.87 padres 2.00, bet x amount on giants half on padres

risk free bet? where? you can't have an arb if neither price is over $2.00!

[Alt75]

Gone nearly all in on bet365 $60 on Giants, $30 on Padres on sportingbet. Lets go Giants I wanna rollover my bet365 funds. Brian Wilson weave some magic with your epic beard.

Otherwise I only have $1.50 left in bet365 for the weekend, sportingbet can take the hit as I haven't been using it as much

Yeah I saw that for Judd, be interesting to see if he's the shortest priced for most possession, I would imagine Pendelbury would be. Nice offer but Juddy's gonna have to have a blinder. The bookies probably have word that he'll be tagged heavily.

[Alt75]

risk free bet? where? you can't have an arb if neither price is over $2.00!

padres were $2.00 underdogs on sportingbet, favourites everywhere else with Giants around $1.95/1.97

not quite an arb, return on giants pays more than outlay on padres and return on padres returns the outlay on giants.

I have a niggling feeling I fudged something with this... yup I'm officially retarded.

[benrama]

Ben, knowing our government, we probably won't end up with live betting either!

There isn't really a great market for a pinny style book to set up over here. Most Australian punters are not that sophisticated and do not know that much about vig and +EV. You should see how some of my mates, who love gambling, look at me when I start talking about line movement, not laying lots of chalk, 53% and that parlays are for suckers.

The Aussie market is designed for clowns, who outnumber us.

Accordingly, the only people who would be really interested in a low vig books are sharper gamblers, who, as we know, bookies aren't interested in having as customers.

edit: readbet isn't bad. limits were bad for AFL, but I assume that was to do with the $2.00 line offer they were running this year. i cashed out a while ago. MLB lines are comparable to pinny and I never had any problems getting a $100.00 or $200.00 bet down there. I would prefer slow moving lines on a site like that! but bases was always pretty quick.

I agree with you, the majority of punters are not much better off than playing the pokies. I have a mate that has his weekly betting that consists of 7 or 8 game multi's, and he's not the only one.

As an aside, parlays are not necessarily for suckers and they actually reduce juice if you hit at 53% or better ATS - that's a big "IF" however. Agree that generally it's better to stay away.

I might have to give Readbet another chance, I was thinking of AFL with their shocking limits but if they accept bets up to $500 no problem then that's all I need. Having high limits at Pinny is not always a good thing, especially when out drinking, with your phone handy and feeling bold

I do think though longer term the market will become smarter and look if Pinnacle makes money even by focusing on "sharps" or people who generally know their stuff, there's no reason why an Aussie equivalent can't also do well. Let's say hypothetically that 25% of the market gets to the point where they are more than just hacks, if you can corner that part of the market here that's still very, very profitable.

[brettels]

crows/bombers over 178.5

5% rain chance, cold but thats normal weather for both sides.

[gtboy]

can some1 please help me here.I have no idea about Aus AFl Football, but i was just looking around pinni and see they have odds for the afl games. what bothers me is they have a team eg favor by 39.5 point ( Richmond Tigers ) and the money line only - 600. is this right. i mean a team favor by 40 points, ml i expected to be infinity eh? can some1 please explain. thanks

[Alt75]

can some1 please help me here.I have no idea about Aus AFl Football, but i was just looking around pinni and see they have odds for the afl games. what bothers me is they have a team eg favor by 39.5 point ( Richmond Tigers ) and the money line only - 600. is this right. i mean a team favor by 40 points, ml i expected to be infinity eh? can some1 please explain. thanks

read this thread

http://forum.sbrforum.com/more-sports/1165445-aussie-rules-spreads-money-line.html

[Gee]

Alt: still dont get it. Its low juice roll over, but thats about it. This Giants/Padres game could still go for a while...

Ben: yeah, AFL limits were shit there, but I whored the $2.00 lines for a while. Let me know how you go with them. I may come back, but probably no need, considering I have pinny. I don't understand how parlays reduce juice if you are betting ATS. You're getting $3.60 on a $4.00 shot. Lol, i know what you mean about limits, but I'll rarely throw over $300 down without really thinking about it/drunk betting.

Long term a pinny style book will make money... its also a lot riskier than going after the donks with lots of advertising and bonuses.

On tonights game, I am getting massively RLMd. I can see barely any money on crows, but the line free falling. I may as well call it now -$220.00 on the night At least I won't be home to watch.

[Alt75]

Alt: still dont get it. Its low juice roll over, but thats about it. This Giants/Padres game could still go for a while...

Ben: yeah, AFL limits were shit there, but I whored the $2.00 lines for a while. Let me know how you go with them. I may come back, but probably no need, considering I have pinny. I don't understand how parlays reduce juice if you are betting ATS. You're getting $3.60 on a $4.00 shot. Lol, i know what you mean about limits, but I'll rarely throw over $300 down without really thinking about it/drunk betting.

Long term a pinny style book will make money... its also a lot riskier than going after the donks with lots of advertising and bonuses.

On tonights game, I am getting massively RLMd. I can see barely any money on crows, but the line free falling. I may as well call it now -$220.00 on the night At least I won't be home to watch.

Yeah I wasn't with it this morning, had some bad news and wasn't paying attention/thinking clearly when I had that "brainwave", fortunately most of the money I risked was bet365 bonus, looks like Giants might do it at 6-1 in the 12th now and not cost me $30 and I've rolled over 1x so far, in what I probably should have lost for being a dumbass. I was out earlier and I kept going over in my head, that's not risk free you facking moron. I realised I'd outlaid $90 to either return $117 or $60, not break even. Well a $30 loss woulda been better than a $60 loss, but still I can't believe I blooped on that one. I am stupid at times, but generally not that stupid.

[donkson]

Heath Shaw is really going to help the issue...

What an absolute ass.

Plus he's in my supercoach team, which is just added annoyance.

[Alt75]

My god I love Brian Wilson.

[donkson]

How many times this season have the Giants been down in the 8th and won?

[Gee]

Alt: us gamblers can do some dumb things. I once used a $100 freebet on a $1.01 beach volleyball shot during the olympics thinking I would have an easy $101 on my account. I got $1.

Yeah, fukn heath shaw. it is going to accelerate the move

[benrama]

Ben: yeah, AFL limits were shit there, but I whored the $2.00 lines for a while. Let me know how you go with them. I may come back, but probably no need, considering I have pinny. I don't understand how parlays reduce juice if you are betting ATS. You're getting $3.60 on a $4.00 shot. Lol, i know what you mean about limits, but I'll rarely throw over $300 down without really thinking about it/drunk betting..

Yep, I'll keep you posted re: Readbet. I got out of Sportsbet and Centrebet apart from action money on live betting, but am looking for a good Aussie book to spread my money.

Re: parlays, see this old classic by Ganchrow on why they are of value IF if you are a profitable better, http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...1-parlays.html

With the movement on the game tonight I have to go with Adelaide I think, line movement in AFL doesn't often mean much but in this case I have to think there's a firm position the books are taking on the Crows and I think I'll side with them. You can always buy out Gee if you are that uncomfortable.

[Alt75]

haha ahh you didn't read the fine print where it says you only win the odds, not the stake.

So the RLM suggests I play both sides of the line?

Seriously though, on form this year I think Essendon should cover Gee's original spread I understand RLM usually happens for a reason but still the game hasn't been played and the bookies aren't all knowing seers who get the lines let alone ML's spot on week in week out, how many times this year have we seen teams who haven't won at a ground or against a side in several years get up and win. Essendon have shown they can compete with top sides, home ground advantage hasn't meant much to either South Aussie teams this year.

[Gee]

Thanks for the link Ben. I'll look into it soon, but I just skimmed it.

I think we agree though. There can definitely be an advantage in two teamers and occasionally 3 teamers. Any more and its a lottery. On the multi note, I'll probably have a teaser multi on Pies into Richmond tomorrow each at about -20.

I think you are well and truly correct on the play Ben. Serves me right for hitting an away favourite with a terrible record against the home team early, thinking the line will move towards me fukn sharp as a bowling ball over here.

I'm going to have a sneaky hedge bet on Bombers TT u/92 for 1.5x. I don't think both bets lose...

[Gee]

haha ahh you didn't read the fine print where it says you only win the odds, not the stake.

So the RLM suggests I play both sides of the line?

Seriously though, on form this year I think Essendon should cover Gee's originally spread I understand RLM usually happens for a reason but still the game hasn't been played and the bookies aren't all knowing seers who get the lines let alone ML's spot on week in week out, how many times this year have we seen teams who haven't won at a ground or against a side in several years get up and win. Essendon have shown they can compete with top sides, home ground advantage hasn't meant much to either South Aussie teams this year.

yeah, didn't read fine print... used it like cash. rookie error from 2008 (or 2004 or maybe commonwealth games 2006. really can't remember)

ey? both sides? no, just the crows side.

All us squares on Essendon think they should cover the original spread easily. The books aren't always right, but they've looked a lot more than me in setting the line where its at, the moving it against the public! You'll do well to try to take the bookies side on most action. I will rarely try to outcap the market... it can't be done long term (or at least I have no idea how)

[donkson]

Alt: us gamblers can do some dumb things. I once used a $100 freebet on a $1.01 beach volleyball shot during the olympics thinking I would have an easy $101 on my account. I got $1.

lmao, I think I've done the same thing before when I was 18.

[Alt75]

yeah, didn't read fine print... used it like cash. rookie error from 2008 (or 2004 or maybe commonwealth games 2006. really can't remember)

ey? both sides? no, just the crows side.

All us squares on Essendon think they should cover the original spread easily. The books aren't always right, but they've looked a lot more than me in setting the line where its at, the moving it against the public! You'll do well to try to take the bookies side on most action. I will rarely try to outcap the market... it can't be done long term (or at least I have no idea how)

I was being self deprecating/obnoxiously retarded re: both sides of the line, after today's screw up

Yup I understand betting against the public is usually the wiser move and the bookies know much more than us. I'm really undecided and aren't screaming lock. I took Essendon ML and the under min stakes as my early leans with my tips, separately and as a double this morning, leaning Essendon 1-39 but even Essendon 40+ isn't out of the question, just as the upset isn't. Essendon with a fit squad have shown to be a better side this season, sure the trend between team/ground can continue but even so it's not like all of a sudden a lock that Adelaide win and/or cover +9.5 and what you've laid is written off. Well I certainly hope it isn't.

[donkson]

Yeah I've got no idea anymore, but I took Essendon Behinds>Goals. Away teams don't kick very well at AAMI even in good conditions.

[Ace_of_Spades]

My god I love Brian Wilson.

I hate Carlos Marmol.

[diop]

i was initially leaning adelaide, but with the bombers coming off 2 nice wins and their horrible interstate record the line moving from 9.5 to 4.5 so quickly in the past 2 days makes me think that its to easy to take adelaide..im sure the books have been smashed with adelaide bets as bombers past performances there have been just horrid. but on the same note crows coming off a bye which aint ogod and they are honestly a lot worse this yr in terms of effort than last. essendon may have some momentum and i think thats more improtnat in thsi case. seee what happens but crows just look to easy to take in this case gonig from 9.5 to 4.5

[diop]

too easy and i still lost it lol. 27-2 bombers going to get smashed by 50+ minimum

[donkson]

The idea that the bye is a bad thing for teams is a total media beat-up imo.

[brettels]

The idea that the bye is a bad thing for teams is a total media beat-up imo.

isn't it funny how its great for a team to get that break in the finals, but a bye is not a good thing.

[Gee]

Bookies are sharp. I'm square as f\*\*k. Thank god I realized that and had a semi hedge. -70 on the game. Not going to take early lines again. Got stubborn and didn't buy out when I should have.