AFL opening spreads

[Alt75]

I didn't realise Lynch and the other key players were out now you've got me re-evaluating that pick.

Listed teams



bet365 opened the total at 188.5 last night

[Lookingtostart]

Apparently Beau Waters has recovered from a hamstring He's an important player, if he plays though, he might not be 100% fit.

If Eagles win this one given their key outs, it will be (more of) a key victory given the context of their season.

[Gee]

LTS: I can never be happy when I lose money you going tonight?

The total is anyone's guess IMO.

Both teams can score a lot of points, but apart from Collingwood they have both conceded fewer points per game than any other team. I actually think this could be low scoring game and will be looking at where the under opens at centrebet. Bet365 isn't currently funded - i picked off some live scalps with them and pinny last week. Bet365 lost. I'm not disappointed at not having bet365 funded. Temptation of live betting can be a bitch.

On a pure capping the market basis, Eagles are the play. The books are taking all the money on Geelong (according to the betting show on foxsportsnews and betfair (although not high liquidity yet)), yet the line has not budged. They have taken a stance on the Eagles and are comfortable with where they are at. Call me a square, but I still like the Cats.

Whatever happens it is going to be a ripper of a game. Already got the morning off to a nice start with a soccer winner (tailed SOV - thanks buddy )... hopefully pick up a few bases winners this morning too, so I'm not so fussed about my Cats bet.

As for the bye factor, its what I said at the start of the season (if anyone remembers). It was a huge factor in the first half of the season, when teams need the work. It has evened out now that teams need the rest. It may also be to do with the fact that shitty teams had the bye early on too - Suns, Crows, Kangas, Lions, Saints, Bulldogs, Melb were the first 7 teams to play off byes and lose... Saints were the only winner. I don't really factor the bye in, because I don't know what its really worth.

[Lookingtostart]

LTS: I can never be happy when I lose money you going tonight?

I would freakin love to go, but I live in Adelaide. I go for Eagles and Port, (because Port came in when I was already an Eagles fan), would rather be living in Perth right now

On the matter of byes, I read about how in previous seasons where the byes were in, teams 'round about the first half of the season usually lost but in the second half usually won (vague, I know.. too lazy to qualify it). Not sure how accurate this is I couldn't be bothered to follow it up, I personally don't care too much about this at the mo. Just food for thought for anyone who wants to follow it up.

[Alt75]

haha yeah the bet365 live betting is overwhelming and very tempting, fortunately I've been able to contain myself from going silly with it. Sucks though when you pick something and you pass on it or it doesn't accept/closes before you can lay it, like breaks in tennis at $5. Essendon were still around $5.50 underdogs at half time last week.

re: The money coming in on Geelong: I guess all the high rollers are scared off the Cats from last week, it'd be more public money?

I might still chance the Eagles, total I was gonna wait to see what it opened at on the Aus books too. 188.5 is a little high to take the over with great confidence, although I'm feeling both sides put up close to or over 100.

Do you have a MLB thread Gee?
Curious to see your straight plays. I often follow/fade people from the MLB forum/SBR picks or my own randomly from a cursory glance at recent results just playing change on multi's that will probably make you facepalm

Total is 187.5 on Centrebet
TT West Coast 91.0 - Geelong 96.5

[Gee]

LTS: its been a long time since actual byes hasnt it? Its just been a mid-season break for a while... It makes sense though.

Alt: Both teams have great offenses, but it will be a defensive struggle (see Pies/Cats game which was 1st vs 2nd defence). I'm going to have either 1x on u/187.5or cats TT under. If i take the TT, it'll be as a semi hedge, but even if the cats win, i don't think they put up 96.5.

I don't have an MLB thread. I really just play strong RLM games and totals if I can get a decent number.

[Alt75]

hmm I'm undecided on the total, it (obviously) could go either way. I see where you're coming from and agree with you, Eagles are the lowest ranked side for least opponent tackles per game. Cats have one of the lowest tackle counts/averages but I attribute to their dominance with possessions/marks, but at the same time you wouldn't have thought Essendon would have put up over 100 against the Cats. Cats laid 16 more tackles, 30 above their season average against Bombers, but were killed in marks/disposals and had 115 scored against them by a $7 dog on a 5 loss streak. Eagles may be able to do the same, although Lynch out hampers Eagles in attack with that.

Not that means Eagles will definitely do it, total goes over. I just have a feeling Cats may be tiring after 10 games since their bye, short week etc. Eagles with rest and if they can get midfield dominance and the expanses of Subiaco compared to narrower Skilled Stadium, Eagles get their run on make Cats chase, control possession it could turn into a shootout in the dry fine conditions. In that scenario I would think the Cats TT would definitely go under too. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 120-80 scoreline if Eagles win, how I think they are capable of.

What were your MLB plays today?

I've got Braves -1.5, Nationals ML and Brewers -1.5 @ $10
Braves, Nationals, Brewers, Red Sox ML's into a bunch of AFL/NRL games at around $180

Can't believe Cubs have come back from 8-0 down

[Gee]

Ouch on Nats. It could go for a while... I was leaning under in that one

MLB today looks like a winning day Zona, Marlins under, Indians, KC, Minny. Got padres over pending, but dumb bet in hindsight. Deserve to lose.

Yeah, for once Garza gets some support - after he gets rocked!

Cats just moved to 7.5 at centrebet and 5.5 at pinny... Nice. I'll just go with my TT u/96 and cats bet. 1x on TT and 1.5x on Cats.

[Alt75]

ugh and Cubs win. I pick 2 +ev spreads and have them ruined by a $1.80 ML, should have played singles and doubles I deserve to lose, you at least bet with your brain. Can't believe for years I still haven't learnt to use the betting slip properly and focus in on the multi field like a fat chick eyeing cheesecake.

Best of luck, at least on the Cats TT I've followed my original lean and gone Eagles, over in a multi with Eagles and my NRL picks.

Total has dropped a few points since opening down to 185.5 on centrebet and 186.5 on bet365.

Squares or sharps moving the line?

I should have waited, if I get screwed by a point or two again.

[brettels]

Geelongs odds sliding and sliding.

[SoV]

Already got the morning off to a nice start with a soccer winner (tailed SOV - thanks buddy )

3rd goal scored in the dying seconds of the game, from what I read

Took the Cats here as well. Line steaming, -7.5 at Pinny now. Took -6.5 at 5Dimes.

[brettels]

Cats look pathetic, 66-32 5 mins left in 2nd quater. ouch!!!

[Lookingtostart]

Amazing win, Geelong were always going to play a good second half. Good call on the unders.

How do others interpret the line movement that went on during the week regarding this game?

[Gee]

Entertaining game of footy.

Typical quiet performance by the Eagles crowd in such a big game. They never seem to get into it.

-$95 on the day.

LTS: Books took a stance, then weight of money drove it up. Cats were a square, square play

Gold Coast/Sydney line has plunged to 35.5. I will likely be on Sydney. Gold Coast kids are getting tired. Sydney need a good win. Quite a lot still to look at in this game before i take it though.

Nice call on the Eagles Alt Bad luck on the total. The game was higher scoring than I thought it would be.... but Geelong TT under never looked in doubt from about mid way through the 2nd quarter.

[Alt75]

Cheers

Nice to see the TT saved you.

All the money coming in on Cats and being the black sheep on the Eagles scared me off and only went in with $2. I decided Wests -1.5 was the safest bet, with the HT/FT double and didn't play Warriors/Under as a combo on its own. Only lost like 3 bucks but

I never got to see any of the games last night. From the post game breakdown on footywire if Eagles didn't slow drastically in the scoring dept and go from 11 goals to 3 in 2 halves of footy it would have gone way over.

What do you think of Hawks v Lions Under 180.5 with possible showers (30%) and 35-50km/h winds forecast for Launceston? Hawks and Suns put up 187 on a perfect day. In these conditions I don't think the Hawks put up much more, if over 100 and I doubt the Lions are good for more than 10-12 goals.

That seems to be the best edge for the highest value bet on this game imo. I'm expecting total to open around 165 on Aus books.

Total for Hawks v Lions opens at 172.5 on Centrebet

Hawks 107.0 - Lions 66.5 TT

[brettels]

This could be a trick by geelong to keep more of the expectations on collingwood or maybe not, credit to eagles the best rebound from spooners i have ever seen. agree with you gee on the line movement.

[brettels]

Hawks/Lions over 163.5

[brettels]

aswell as hawks quater time line -9.5

[Gee]

Looking good on the hawks.

I got the under 83.5 1H for 1x as soon as i saw the conditions. i wasn't home and on my phone though, so couldn't post. sorry guys. i took it 1H because conditions don't always last for a full game. was very windy, so didn't see any point sweating a full game

looking like a good call alt.

[brettels]

essendon quater time line -3.5 , richmond have only won 1 first quater all year.

[Gee]

tailing you for 1x here brettels. good stat.

i'm also on o/189.5 in the suns game for 1.5x.

[brettels]

im not liking the look of the result gee, im sorry!

[brettels]

sorry gee.....i hope your units are small! Now its over i can enjoy the tigers good form. i hope i didn't say that too soon.

[donkson]

haha

[Alt75]

bad luck on the Swans total

I cracked the shits a little when I realised the spread multi I decided on was pwned by .5 then again when I see tonight the last 2 legs easily hit, thought I'd quit while I was ahead so didn't play any of the evening games. Would have gone 2-2 and broken even anyway as both my league picks were bad. - derp I just realised Storm won I read the scores the wrong way. I would have done ok last night with Essendon/Swans to cover and Storm 1-12.

Better luck with Sundays games!

[brettels]

How Richmond could Richmond be!!! Depressing stuff!

[Alt75]

Time for another load of manure to be sent to Punt rd?

Sounds like it's going to be awful day at the G.

I was thinking Cloke for most goals @ $3 might be a good value bet on this game but these conditions aren't great for tall forwards. Even though Buddy and Brown didn't do too badly in similar conditions. Hoping for an early bet365 edge on the total again if it's set above 180 I'm gonna take the Under.

Cloudy periods. Isolated showers increasing to scattered during the afternoon. Winds west to northwesterly averaging up to 45 km/h tending west to southwesterly up to 50 km/h during the afternoon.

Pies have had the Kangs number last few years, 87 point win in rd 2 at Etihad 66 point win at the G last year. Can Pies outclass them again in terrible conditions to cover 40 odd points???

Opening totals posted on bet365

Collingwood v North Melbourne 187.5
Port Adelaide v St.Kilda 170.5
Western Bulldogs v Carlton 205.5

Collingwood v Magpies total conundrum

All of their games have gone over 199 since 2005.

Collingwood averaging about 105 points a game, North Melbourne 70.
Collingwood were able to contain Hawks to 65 last week. North kicked their season average against the Saints, this is North's first game at the G for the season, highly unlikely North put up more than 8-10 goals today. I would imagine Collingwood could kick their average 100-40 scoreline or near on kick the over themselves.

Highest scores against Collingwood at the G this year.

Richmond 90, Essendon 77, Carlton 74 - Take solace Brettels, it appears your Tiges scored the highest against the Pies at the G this year Those were all early in the season. Recently the trend changes.

StKilda, Melbourne, Hawthorn, West Coast, Geelong, Bulldogs have only kicked around 10 goals against the Pies at the G this year.

[brettels]

north are better than most think they are. they will want to be very competative today and will keep collingwood under 40 and its more likely with the weather situation.

bulldogs are much the same, i expect them to keep blues under 40 aswell.

the same for all games really, i think port can keep saints under 40 even in good weather while at home.

alt!! theres 100 truck loads of cow shit on the way to punt road including 100 trucks of fish guts.

[Alt75]

hahah

Damn I jumped the gun on the Blues Bulldogs over at 205.5, now it's 188/189

Still think a 210-250 total is likely in this game unless Dogs turn it into a high stoppage game.

Although the Collingwood total I got 7 points higher, I can't complain getting a small edge on 2 from 3 totals. That wind's gonna be terrible I nearly got blown away this morning walking to the shops. Despite the conditions I think Collingwood have far too much depth and it could turn into a very bad day for North but I can also see the conditions and "shinboner" spirit keep it a close one.

I think Port Saints is the best chance for 1-39. It's a little wet but not so windy in Adelaide too. Not really keen on that game, although I've taken Saints to cover and Under in a 10 leg with all my leans for todays AFL/NRL spreads/totals.

If Carlton are in the same kind of form they were last week I don't think Bulldogs can keep up with em on the scoreboard.

[brettels]

saints/port over 165.5

pies/roos over 180.5

carlton QT line -5.5

heres to a better day!

[Alt75]

Why did you take the over on Pies v Roos?

There's going to be 50 km/h winds blowing westerly/north westerly, there may be a slight kicking advantage on the northern end of the ground for the right hand pocket. Norths TT is 67.5, Collingwood 111. Top 4 sides have struggled to put up 10 goals at the G against the pies. Aside Collingwood kicking a huge bag over 20 goals and contributing to the total themselves I don't see why you'd favour the over?

[donkson]

North have beaten Port twice, Gold Coast, Adelaide, Melbourne, and a close one against Essendon when they were bad. There's no reason at all to suggest they'll be competitive against Collingwood.

The weather may keep them within the 44.5, but I'd rather just stay away.

[brettels]

its not a pick based on stats or facts. based on gut feeling. didn't consider the winds or weather when placing the bet. i can handle the loss. small bet. collingwood are magic, they could take it over during a cyclone

[rochestertitans]

any chance carlton loses straight up?

[Alt75]

Fair enough, each to their own, not bashing was just curious well you basically bet on a trend to continue, it's possible but highly unlikely imo, given the stats for the year and conditions today. At least there's some angle

I used to do my footy picks off gut feeling from just vaguely following football and not even watching Lions play, I took an Under on a Friday night game at Etihad thinking it was at the G. Since I've been pouring over the stats etc my capping has improved heaps since I'm not throwing darts. Taking weather and scoring averages etc into consideration are a must if you're going to play totals! If you wanna chance a shit and giggles bet I'd go +ev props like most goalscorers etc rather than picking totals on gut feeling. Whatever floats your boat though