AFL opening spreads

[Alt75]

brettels is a funny bugger. Oscar will be able to tag Boomer Harvey, similar height matchup

Yeah North haven't been too bad aside the Collingwood thrashing. Carlton dropped games to Bulldogs and Eagles at Etihad. 100+ at the G would be a possibility if Carlton fired and North had a shocker.

Carlton are 1-5 against North at Etihad

2-8 against North Melbourne since 2004. North have a home game win on the Gold Coast in 07. Aside the their last win against North rd 18 2009 the only other was 2004 at Princess Park!

Carlton 1-39 or North to cover & ML.

[brettels]

nah, boomers too short for oscar.

i agree its worth putting even money on nm ml and carlton 1-39 but then they would win by 40+ so stuff it

[Alt75]

Yeah I'm also thinking a shorter pyol of around -12.5 for Carlton, if they play to this seasons form Carlton should win by over 2 or 3 goals. 1-39 is a broad margin but those 40-50 point wins are a dirty sob when your play is capped at 39.5. Those ground/team curses are spooky though. After Raiders beating the Dragons I'm concerned it may haunt Carlton.

What are your early leans on a total brettels?

[Alt75]

Surprised this hasn't been posted here

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mMX1yJRMYk

wtf is up the youtube tags, it showed the clip as embedded when I first previewed, on submitting it doesn't show

[brettels]

I hadn't seen that video yet, very funny. Any other recently new ones of those you could link?

Not sure about totals yet, I dont really think about it until the numbers are up and thats always on game day.

[brettels]

I think they might make an andrew lovett hitler episode, who knows.

[Alt75]

at a Lovett Hitler vid. Nah haven't seen any other AFL related Hitler vids.

I try and cap the total myself before bet365 put em up in case there's an edge, no environmental conditions at Etihad. Carlton average 15.0 Roos 13.9, both have been kicking a bit above that recently. On averages the total would be around 180, on recent form it might open closer to 202/205.5 though, either side is capable of putting up 120-150 in a free running game, if it's a grindy high tackle/stoppage count game you'd probably expect 12 goals or so to the winning side with a 90-60'ish scoreline.

[brettels]

with that being the case then i'd say they might open around 188-196 or settle around there. as you know i don't use bet365, do they open over/unders earlier than sportsbet? i'm nagging sb to open total o/u through the week for multi purposes. hasn't worked obviously. will keep at it.

[Alt75]

yeah bet365 open the totals a fair few hours earlier than the aus books, sometimes juiced at 1.83 other times usual odds of 1.90

Around 1am to 5am for the weekend games, late morning - early arvo for the Friday night game, they are adjusted in line with Centrebet at 9am Sat/Sun morning and late arvo on Fridays, have been up to 20 points higher than the averages/expected opening totals with terrible weather forecast. Etihad kind of takes the weather edge away though so still need to predict how the game will play out, still may get an extra 10 points or so to save you by jumping on certain totals early.

[Gee]

Lol. Funny video.

I haven't put the hours in this week yet, so I don't have much of a feel yet.

Eagles ML into something is a good bet if the Dogs have some big outs. I've been saying it for a few weeks, but I gotta start teasing teams or playing two teamers. The lines are pretty tight now and we are seeing some unpredictable results in the run in to the finals. The good thing about the first 15 weeks of the season is that teams usually play to form. After that, some teams lose motivation/tank/rebuild (Crows now), wind down a bit for finals (Geelong for example), get tired because they have lots of kids or try too hard when they really need a win. Its the same for a lot of sports. The best of the money on AFL this year has been made already IMO.

But, its a bad week this week. 3 x 40+ spreads, adelaide/port both being completely hopeless means 4 of the games are tough to bet (you watch though, i'll end up playing at least one of them).

[benrama]

A bit iffy now on North Melbourne, if I play it, will be small.

I agree it's a tough week, my current leans are:

West Coast 1H
St Kilda 1H
Hawthorn/Manly parlay

I'm also adding either Geelong or Collingwood to these bets. I usually shake my finger at friends that do this, but let's face it Geelong aren't losing at Skilled and the Pies aren't losing at home, so I'll take that extra 8-10% payout, and if there's a shock upset then so be it.

[Alt75]

Manly/West Coast is what I was considering playing as a double.

Fedor over Hendo on strikeforce should be a pretty solid leg in a parlay at around $1.40. Not using the L word but I had considered going all in with my entire balance on Fedor, although usually when I have this idea the fighter I'm leaning towards loses a shock upset.

Here's another Hitler vid about GWS/Tom Scully

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cLjGxlZdsc

[Lookingtostart]

I like the parlay on pies and cats, however essendon can be a bit unpredictable.
What do others think of freo's chances?

[Alt75]

Cats and Pies su multi'd on their own at around $1.20 or the lines?

I'm kinda leaning Freo, they really need this win to stay in touch of the finals. Should be close.

Total is up now on bet365 for Blues and Kangas 195.5

[Lookingtostart]

You might as well throw StKilda in the parlay as well, since the $1.20 is so low!

[donkson]

Just take Pies Q1 at 1.24, this game will get ugly.

[benrama]

Yea, wouldn't touch a $1.20 play, and layering in a team like St Kilda carries more risk than it's worth.

What I'm doing - even though I don't recommend it - is adding Collingwood and Geelong to pretty much all my plays this weekend, as this is a special case where I just can't see either losing and that extra 10% can add another half a unit or so to potential profits. This has been a long term profitable strategy for me but requires very very careful selection (e.g. I only ever do this on home games for the top 1-3 teams in a league).

I think Freo have a good shot at keeping things close, and I think a 1Q/1H bet on them is worth looking at; but I expect this game to go similar to their previous clash - close for 2 or 3Q's before Hawthorn pull away.

[Alt75]

That's $1.28, 9 cents per leg is crap and not much difference than taking em as 3 singles. With Essendon's return of some key players and the marquee game coming off a hiding to another rival I wouldn't chance it the Collingwood ML in a parlay. Those kinda odds are too much risk for too little reward, especially over 3 legs. Yeah St Kilda and Geelong SU should be locks but as you said Essendon are too unpredictable. Plus I'm of the mind Collingwood are statistically due to drop another game, probably sooner rather than later at 15-1 for the season also may lapse into cruise control being virtually guaranteed a top 2 spot.

Here's what I'm thinking some possibilities to milk some value out of the games over the weekend, 2 short legs for a 50% return, 3 for 85% all 4 at $2.27, 5 at $2.79 if you're feeling sassy.

Brisbane Broncos ML into
Geelong -18.5
St Kilda -14.5
West Coast Eagles +16.5
Essendon +71.5 or Collingwood -19.5 depends on your lean for the game.

[binomial]

Carlton's average winning margin versus bottom 8 10 goals+
NM's average losing margin v top 4 10 goals+

pyol carlton -60.5 $5.60

[Alt75]

Brave man!

IMO Carlton don't seem to pile on goals at Etihad like they do at the G. North Melbourne have had their number the past decade. Carltons record is shocking against North in general and at Etihad. They've been mugged by the Eagles and Dogs there this year. Highest Carlton have kicked at Etihad this year was 19.10.124 against Brisbane. Anything is possible I don't really rate North but I doubt Carlton blow them out like Collingwood did, the fan in me would like to see it always disliked North.

BOL even though I've gone with the 1-39

[binomial]

haven't bet it. yet.

i don't put that much emphasis on history.

scores at ethiad somwhat due too opponents. NM give up 100+ pretty regularly.

[Alt75]

When North lose to top sides they do tend to get blown out but are also capable of regularly putting up around 100 themselves, sans against Collingwood.

Carlton only put up 85 against the Crows, 84 against Saints. In their losses 66 against Eagles and 69 against the Dogs, who North smashed and were competitive with Saints there. 100 against the Swans who went awol for 2/3 Q and could only manage to put 9 points in a half of football and then Swans won the 4Q by 4 goals. Carlton probably would have lost that if the Swans didn't stop for 2 quarters. Only decent side Carlton have played at Etihad this year was the Cats. North play there more often. The history is something to consider not something one should strictly go by as teams change year to year but remember the Dragons last week, Melbourne's record at Etihad etc

Especially with Carlton dropping 2 games this year at Etihad they should have comfortably won. They should win SU I was wary of the -21.5, not surprised to see an upset with that historical trend. If it was at the G I'd be confident in a bigger win of around or over 10 goals.

[benrama]

Alt, these are the same reasons that led me to like North +22.5/23.5, Carlton doesn't like the smaller Etihad as they prefer the expansive game they can play at the MCG; and the fact that North beat Carlton in this spot last year and kept it to within 10 the year before is relevant.

Carlton have an inexperienced backline that was exposed against the Eagles, and although North don't have that same height and strength, if they can pile on some pressure Carlton will be put on the back foot.

This feels like one of those games that will either be an upset or a route, so I'm tempted to play both the North Melbourne ML and Carlton 39+ line.

[Alt75]

Yeah I think the history shows North matchup well with Carlton, even more so at Etihad. North have that height through the spine and some fast ball movers like Harvey and Wells, they can cause problems for poorly disciplined/structured sides.

I think it will be close either way. The +22.5 is probably the wiser play if you're not feeling a Carlton blow out.

I put Carlton SU in a "what if" 14 legger of all my leans for footy and fights for the weekend and it's one of the ML's I wouldn't be surprised to see ruin it.

[Lookingtostart]

What's carlton's ruckmen like? (I'm not saying this will be decided in the ruck). Goldstein has been doing well, I like the discussion you guys are having about this game.

[brettels]

very impressed with north, still hoping carlton get over the line!

[brettels]

and they did. good to see some competitive close classy footy.

[maroona]

Yeah it was a great game, carlton just showed their class in the last quarter, didn't cover the line but managed to get them 2nd half -15.5 when down by 11 at half time so all was not lost

[Alt75]

Dammit I made a huge post with all the opening totals and weather forecasts last night and it's gone. Good one sbr

[Gee]

Had a huge lunch yesterday and didn't bet on this game at all. I was going to take the under, so annoyed i missed it. 195.5 was far too high.

Oh well... on to today. I like the Cats at Skilled (surprise surprise). I have 1.5x on the TT over 115 and 1.5x on the -45.5. I've also got 2.5x on a 3 teamer - Eagles, Cats, St Kilda @ -103.

[Gee]

ps. if anyone has a stream for the cats game please let me know. doesn't look like its on. Eagles game on over here on both fox and normal tv.

[Ace_of_Spades]

Love the avatar man.

[Alt75]

There's no AFL games on the myp2p.eu schedule, there may be a game on veetle from espn uk.

Actually sportstreamlive are having a free trial weekend, fox sports 1 stream on here supposed to be showing it http://www.sportstreamlive.tv

Direct link to Cats v Demons here

http://veetle.com/index.php/channel/view#4d4656c7acf66

[Gee]

Thanks buddy.

For some reason its on Foxsports2. Usually they show the home town game on both.

Not watching eagles yet though; sweating the Rockies.

Cats game is on my other TV though. They are going to win and cover and cover the TT easy here. I smell a belting. Hope I'm right!

[Gee]

Cats and Eagles are both locks Cats by 48 at quarter time and Eagles by 27 in the first...

Leaning Saints and under in Dockers game tonight... Not sure though.

It is pretty wet over here, but storms never last long and subi drains well. I may just take my winnings and run.